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Member (Idle past 4439 days) Posts: 990 From: Burlington, NC, USA Joined: |
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Author | Topic: Gun Control | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
foreveryoung Member (Idle past 876 days) Posts: 921 Joined:
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DrAdequate writes: On a point of fact, China is about as communist as my ass. China has begun to let people start to form businesses and keep part of their money instead of it all going to the state. It has not always been such and you know this very well I'm sure. Still, the state considers such practices a privilege, and assumes the right to remove such privileges at will depending on circumstance. Such practices are not a constitutional right.
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Dr Adequate Member Posts: 16113 Joined:
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You cannot overthrow a brutal police state without guns. I agree that you can overthrow a democracy with guns and institute a police state. You can also prevent a democracy from turning into a police state with guns. A democracy that is morphing into a police state won't get very far at removing undesirables from their property and home when they get blown away by 45 calibers when they attempt to do so. Unless the nascent police state has more and bigger guns ... and tanks ... and better supplies for a siege, 'cos of being outside the log cabin. I have noticed that when people who think the government is already a tyranny try to stand it off (or people who are just plain crooks without any particular ideology try to do the same thing) the government usually wins. I can't think of a single case where the government has instead said: "Oh, you've got a 45 caliber gun? We're sorry, we didn't know. In that case, we're not going to try to enforce our laws." What actually happens is that in the end the government wins, but with more dead people at the end of it than if the guy had been armed with a wet towel and a potato-peeler.
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DevilsAdvocate Member (Idle past 3395 days) Posts: 1548 Joined: |
DA - could you label the plots next time? I had to go into peek mode to find out that the one above was labeled suicide by gun rate and the one below was your rate of gun homicide you were trying to portray??? I apologize, should have labled them better. Thanks."It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." - Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
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DevilsAdvocate Member (Idle past 3395 days) Posts: 1548 Joined: |
Correct, I cannot provide causation but can make a strong claim that as the per capita rate of gun ownership increases so does the homicide rate . Developed countries with low gun ownership generally have lower homicide rates and vice versa.
Edited by DevilsAdvocate, : No reason given."It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." - Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
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onifre Member (Idle past 3245 days) Posts: 4854 From: Dark Side of the Moon Joined:
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You said in the other thread:
Since handguns and rifles are exactly the weapons you would use to defend against an invading army... Says who? Why not rifles, shotguns and assault rifles? Why specifically handguns? - Oni
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anglagard Member (Idle past 1130 days) Posts: 2339 From: Socorro, New Mexico USA Joined: |
DevilsAdvocate writes: Correct, I cannot provide causation but can make a strong claim that as the per capita rate of gun ownership increases so does the homicide rate . Developed countries with low gun ownership generally have lower homicide rates and vice versa. Well here is the data from wikipedia for what it is worth. Not seeing an immediate correlation.
Here is some incomplete data that could lead to a correlation coefficient relating gun ownership rates to homicides. Still not seeing an R value approaching 1 jumping out of the data. Maybe there is something more to homicide rates than just gun ownership. Edited by anglagard, : Using wrong data set to compute an R-valueRead not to contradict and confute, not to believe and take for granted, not to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider. - Francis Bacon
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1699 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined:
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Hi Voltaire30,
Its funny watching a bunch of smelly, college graduates with worthless degrees who have never worked a day in their lives try to take away money from productive individuals, isn't it? ... It's even funnier that you buy the faux news spin on it rather than actually look at the live video feeds from the sites. Populations ranged from kids to grandparents, many working jobs and doing the protests in shifts, some thinking it was important enough to quit their jobs and go full time. Many unemployed workers were also involved. Of course direct experience is always better than news feeds, especially now in the conservative owned informercial news age. You also buy the "take away money from productive individuals" bs of the conservative spin. Hilarious. What they were protesting for was fair and just taxation, so that the rich give as much as they do. They were also protesting for getting the criminals that caused the economic crunch to be prosecuted and have their day in court. Perhaps you think white collar criminals should be exempt from the rules that apply to the rest of us because they are "productive" even though all they produce is sheets of paper with paperhouse money. Productive is when you make a product not a house of cards.
I am aware of that history. The non violent protest worked because the british colonial government was not a repressive police state like the former soviet union. No the protest worked because the British government could not ignore the protest in the international awareness - they did not like being shown as the oppressors. You think they were not oppressive? I suggest you do some research.
How non violent is filling truck tires with gasoline and putting them on government sympathizers and lighting them on fire- a procedure known as necklacing? Which was not done by, but deplored by, those involved in the non-violent movement, the one that succeeded.
Its amazing what a huge media spotlight that puts your every move under a microscope and broadcasts it to every media outlet in the world can do isn't it? Which is why Ghandi also worked, just back then there were real news reporters reporting real news to the world that was not filtered by boss editors to the whim of conservative owners. It just happened faster with the public media.
Again, the United States is not a brutal police force. Really? Seems you don't know much real history. Every see how the Native people were treated as they were forced into tiny reservations with barely marginal living conditions? Did you watch the PBS special on the freedom rides and the bus burning and beatings at the start of the civil rights movement? Are you aware of the numbers of people that were killed ? Are you aware that it took news of these burnings beatings killings before the US government got off their butts and enforced things in a just way?
I cant think of a single president or administration during that time that even remotely resembled a police state like the former soviet union or China. Try the states of Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. We have this curious system here where states have the first crack at maintaining peace and order their way. Also look at Arizona and their "concentration camps" of immigrants today. Police states can exist in pockets as well as nations.
Governments already use guns on the populace without justification, so your point is moot. What is moot about having governments use guns to attack unarmed citizens in suppressing a peaceful protest being seen world wide as unnecessarily oppressive and wrong compared to justified reply to armed rebellion? You don't seem to get the point.
I agree, but it is foolish to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Which is why government change by evolution rather than revolution, through non-violent peaceful protest rather than armed conflict, to build on what is good in current government and altering what is bad, ends up with better results. The changes in governments that have been achieved through non-violent protest are massive, and always trend to better civil rights, just look at the improved government in the US where the baby was not thrown out. Armed insurrections just do not have that history. They are much more likely to end in another round of despotic government just with different people at the top. South America, Cuba, just some examples.
Yes it is, but it is not possible to live in freedom in a totalitarian police state without guns. We'll just have to disagree on that. You seem to have a fundamentally entrenched belief that things are better with guns. This prevents you from seeing the possibilities of non-violent protest, even when presented with evidence of their productiveness.
Unarmed non-violent protest creates change by evolution of government rather than by revolution.[qs] You didn't finish. Unarmed non-violent protest creates change by evolution of government rather than by revolution, building on what you have to improve it. This can occur in any form of government, even oppressive police states. It may not happen in a lifetime, but a trend is established that grows roots and branches. It does not try to accomplish everything at once, just relieve the most egregious conditions first. Added by edit:
... was not a repressive police state like the former soviet union. BTW -- can you tell me how the "former soviet union" was transformed into the current political states and whether that involve an armed citizenry? Was it by war? Or did it occur peacefully, non-violently ... Enjoy. Edited by RAZD, : .. Edited by RAZD, : added by edit at the endby our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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DevilsAdvocate Member (Idle past 3395 days) Posts: 1548 Joined:
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The point I was making is that if people's guns are taken away from them now, it gives them no defense against an oppressive tyranny in the future. What oppressive tyranny are you talking about? It is the 21 century with nuclear weapons and chemical/biological weapons not 18th century with a muskets and cannon balls. The USA is not Syria. Our military would never go to war against its own citizens, in the way you speak of. But if you think that you need an assault rifle so you can shoot your own soldiers, go right ahead.
xactly'future tyranical powers'. Such as the U.S. government. The former Brits had just fought the British kingtheir own leaderto defend their rights. They were well aware of the potential necessity for people to fight against their own government. Again, apples to oranges. Our government is not the 18th century British government. If you want to fight our own military and government, you are going to need more than assault rifles and handguns, i.e. IEDs, RPGs, tanks, helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft armed with gattling guns and hellfire rockets, landmines, maybe a couple of dirty bombs, etc.
the only arms allowed are useless in protecting someone from 'future tyranical powers', then the amendment is as good as non-existent. Than the ammendment is non-existent, because if the US military wanted to wipe out its population, it would do a pretty good job by nuking all of its major cities and then wiping up with all its other assets. You are really not thinking this thing through. If there were no holds barred the government and the military would have the upper hand, unless you plan to stock up on military grade weaponry that I described above. This will never happen, because 99.9% people who are sane like myself exist in the US military and will not allow this to happen.
Sure. The purpose of the amendment is to create a check against tyrannical nutjobs. This may have been true in the 18th and even the 19th centuries. I do not believe the weapons that we have a right to under the 2nd Ammendment would even slow down a tyannical government who is intent on wiping out its own citizens. It would become a moot point anyways since at that point all 'rights' would be void including the right to live once the government and citizens went to war with each other. Edited by DevilsAdvocate, : No reason given."It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." - Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
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DevilsAdvocate Member (Idle past 3395 days) Posts: 1548 Joined:
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Well here is the data from wikipedia for what it is worth. Not seeing an immediate correlation. Here is some incomplete data that could lead to a correlation coefficient relating gun ownership rates to homicides. Still not seeing an R value approaching 1 jumping out of the data. Maybe there is something more to homicide rates than just gun ownership.
Here is one study. Not saying it is conclusive but all evidence must be weighed. But thought I would add some fuel to the fire.
"States With Higher Levels of Gun Ownership Have Higher Homicide Rates" from the Harvard School of Public Health writes:
Firearms are used to kill two out of every three homicide victims in America. In the first nationally representative study to examine the relationship between survey measures of household firearm ownership and state level rates of homicide, researchers at the Harvard Injury Control Research Center found that homicide rates among children, and among women and men of all ages, are higher in states where more households have guns. The study appears in the February 2007 issue of Social Science and Medicine. Redirecting Matthew Miller, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Injury Prevention at Harvard School of Public Health, and his colleagues David Hemenway and Deborah Azrael, used survey data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s 2001 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the world’s largest telephone survey with over 200,000 respondents nationwide. Respondents in all 50 states were asked whether any firearms were kept in or around their home. The survey found that approximately one in three American households reported firearm ownership. Analyses that controlled for several measures of resource deprivation, urbanization, aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, and alcohol consumption found that states with higher rates of household firearm ownership had significantly higher homicide victimization rates for children, and for women and men. In these analyses, states within the highest quartile of firearm prevalence had firearm homicide rates 114% higher than states within the lowest quartile of firearm prevalence. Overall homicide rates were 60% higher. The association between firearm prevalence and homicide was driven by gun-related homicide rates; non-gun-related homicide rates were not significantly associated with rates of firearm ownership. These results suggest that it is easier for potential homicide perpetrators to obtain a gun in states where guns are more prevalent. Our findings suggest that in the United States, household firearms may be an important source of guns used to kill children, women and men, both on the street and in their homes, said Miller. This study was supported by the Joyce Foundation. Miller M., Hemenway D., Azrael D. "State-level homicide victimization rates in the US in relation to survey measures of household firearm ownership 2001-2003Soc Sci Med. 2007 Feb;64(3):656-64. Epub 2006 Oct 27. However also balance that out with this graph of homicide rate (per 100,000) vs household gun ownership (from the University of California at Berkley):
Source: http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~leehk/stat/ From this graph, it appears there is no direct correlation between gun ownership and the overall homicide rate (not just gun related) on an individual state to state basis. However, there is a link between an increase in gun ownership and gun deaths (murder and suicide).But is not as simple as that as you must weigh in other factors as well i.e. unemployment, inequality, etc. Below is a graph of homicide vs gun ownership by country (in this case developed countries).
Source: http://www.ryerson.ca/...Net/issues/globalfirearmdeaths.html I suggest you read the whole analysis on the above graphs and the article below for it to make sense.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...ns-violence-and-gun-control Some interesting points brought up by the Washington Post Article above:
1. America is an unusually violent country. But we’re not as violent as we used to be. 2. The South is the most violent region in the United States. 3. Gun ownership in the United States is declining overall. 4. More guns tend to mean more homicide. 5. States with stricter gun control laws have fewer deaths from gun-related violence. 6. Gun control is not politically popular. Again, I am just showing the stastics and will let you decide what that tells you. Edited by DevilsAdvocate, : No reason given. Edited by DevilsAdvocate, : No reason given."It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." - Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
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Modulous Member (Idle past 278 days) Posts: 7801 From: Manchester, UK Joined: |
A willing weapons salesman will not get very far in a very strong and repressive police state. Well if we're talking about an overthrowing an established police state - I'd expect many of the salesman would stay on the outside. But black markets do exist in police states.
Like I said before, persuading and coercing inspectors or circumventing legitimate import channels in a state like the former Soviet Union would be snuffed out before it got started. Do you have any support for this? The black market and bribery did exist in the USSR. Are you saying that the USSR, with all of its multiple failings, managed to somehow defeat smuggling? And if we're talking about a state that is so absolutely powerful that bribery, persuasion and coercion could not work - how on earth is a frontal assault on the border police or customs officials going to work? You can't do it on your own - and organising a sufficiently strong force of armed fighters will be 'snuffed out before it got started'. and 'millions will get executed' (your hyperbole, not mine). And what the heck are you going to do next? In an absolute police state, you can't keep an organised militia hidden for too long - there is always the strong risk that someone is going to betray you. But such absolute police states simply don't exist. See: The French Resistance, the Forest Brothers, the Lithuanian partisans, the Cursed soldiers, the armed Jewish Resistance... Edited by Modulous, : No reason given.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1699 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Hi DevilsAdvocate,
6. Gun control is not politically popular. Again, I am just showing the stastics and will let you decide what that tells you. It seems to me that there is a fundamentally firmly held belief in many that guns make you independently free compared to non-gun owners, that you are able to enforce your freedom personally without regard to others or any need for others. Frontier Cowboys on the plains pseudo-nostalgia. This is, of course a dissonant belief, at odds with the reality of modern life and the overwhelming development of arms in the militaries around the world. Canada, with essentially the same colonial history (other than evolving their independence from Britain peacefully ... ) does not share this Frontier Cowboy to the same degree (it exists a bit in Alberta I believe), but they have gun controls without much complaint and they have much lower deaths by guns. Yet we also have Switzerland with fewer gun related deaths and a high degree of gun ownership of military caliber (albeit with training and controls on ammo). The real difference has to be in the psychology of the gun crowd here, it seems to me, and that's where I come to see this idee fixe about gun ownership → freedom rather than gun ownership → responsibility: you can be irresponsible with your gun but they can't take it away from you? Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Tangle Member Posts: 9604 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 5.7 |
DA writes: Below is a graph of homicide vs gun ownership by country (in this case developed countries). Looking at the second graph, there appears to be a near straight-line relationship between deaths by guns and the percentage of population that owns them. Which seems to make sense. But there are two obvious outliers1. USA - which looks to have almost twice as many deaths as it should and 2. New Zealand - which looks to have half as many as it should. (Switzerland too is interesting as it's only just off the curve too) Without looking any further, it seems clear that when people have guns, they kill more than when they don't - which would be no great surprise to most people. But it also seems that for the USA there's more going on. It's hard to avoid concluding that Americans are more violent* than the average guy - at least than the average guy with a gun. (*violent isn't the word I'm looking for - something more like punative, vengeful etc.) Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android
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crashfrog Member (Idle past 1761 days) Posts: 19762 From: Silver Spring, MD Joined: |
Without looking any further, it seems clear that when people have guns, they kill more than when they don't - which would be no great surprise to most people. Then I would suggest that you look further, because this is a chart of gun homicides per 100,000 people - not all homicides per 100,000 people. If gun control simply shifts the weapons used in murders from guns to knives or clubs, it's hard to see how that's any better. Unfortunately I wasn't able to find anything but homemade Excel charts from unspecified data, and at any rate it was all US-specific. But I don't see that your contention that "when people have guns, they kill more than when they don't" can be supported by this data. They may very well kill more with guns when guns are available than when they're not, but that seems like a tautology. The question is whether the availability of guns causes people to commit more murders, and at least in the US - where the Brady Score (an index of a state's level of gun control) has no statistical association with the overall homicide rate whatsoever - that doesn't seem to be the case. Proponents of that idea would have to demonstrate both a statistical relationship and a putative mechanism by which guns make people murderous.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1699 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Hi Tangle,
But there are two obvious outliers 1. USA - which looks to have almost twice as many deaths as it should and 2. New Zealand - which looks to have half as many as it should. The US has some psychological factors IMHYSAO that lead to unreasonable needs to have and use guns: the image of the frontier\cowboy living large and free, regardless of their ability or sense of responsibility ... too many cowboy movies\tv? There is also likely a correlation to population density\concentrations. Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Modulous Member (Idle past 278 days) Posts: 7801 From: Manchester, UK Joined: |
But it also seems that for the USA there's more going on. It's hard to avoid concluding that Americans are more violent* than the average guy - at least than the average guy with a gun. America has some big wealth disparity issues, as well as some pretty entrenched and lethally violent gang cultures. According to this quote: Edited by Modulous, : No reason given.
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