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Author Topic:   Working Hypothesis -- what is the value?
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 3 of 92 (735414)
08-13-2014 11:30 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by RAZD
08-13-2014 8:05 PM


So it seems to me that a good "working hypothesis" is that the yeti is a bear ...
Er, what "yeti" is a bear? Let's say that you confirm the existence of some kind of huge, funky, white bear. Is that the yeti?
In any event, formulating h1 would seem to be the easier part, although I don't think it is as trivial as you are making it. Formulating h0 properly seems most important in studying a yeti that may or may not even exist.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by RAZD, posted 08-13-2014 8:05 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by RAZD, posted 08-16-2014 8:16 AM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 11 of 92 (735449)
08-15-2014 1:31 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by New Cat's Eye
08-14-2014 3:28 PM


Re: Bass Ackward
And if you then find bear fur in the areas of the reports, then I think that can lead us towards a working hypothesis that the thing that was seen, called the yeti, is actually a bear instead.
There are bears in the Himalayas. There just don't seem to be many polar bears. And of course not all yeti sightings are supposed to be white. I'm not sure that most of them are white.
Where I am going with this, is that there are already plenty of excuses to blame Yeti sightings on bears. What new evidence is likely to be found by following up on RAZD's working hypothesis?
On the other hand, finding an unknown ape/primate would be far more convincing given that some of supposed Yeti sightings are definitely not easily attributable to something bear like. I'm not recommending that as a hypothesis. That would be kinda like looking for my missing wallet in some place I had not been just because the light was better there.
But let's not forget that the evidence for any kind of Yeti is fairly lousy.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by New Cat's Eye, posted 08-14-2014 3:28 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by New Cat's Eye, posted 08-15-2014 2:44 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 13 of 92 (735459)
08-15-2014 6:37 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by New Cat's Eye
08-15-2014 2:44 PM


Re: Bass Ackward
NoNukes writes:
What new evidence is likely to be found by following up on RAZD's working hypothesis?
Catholic Scientist writes:
Fur, scat, footprints, or even an actual bear.
None of that stuff would be new. The presence of bears in Tibet and the Himalayas is well known and documented.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by New Cat's Eye, posted 08-15-2014 2:44 PM New Cat's Eye has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 15 of 92 (735487)
08-16-2014 4:12 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by RAZD
08-16-2014 8:16 AM


Which means the hypothesis that what is identified variously as yeti evidence is more likely to be due to a bear, yes?
What comparison are you making here. More likely to be a bear than what?
And non-existence is notoriously hard to demonstrate ... which leaves falsification somewhat problematic ... which is why it would be a working hypothesis rather than a more formal scientific one.
I'm not the least bit interested in a non scientific investigation into whether Yeti's exist.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by RAZD, posted 08-16-2014 8:16 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by RAZD, posted 08-17-2014 3:23 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 17 of 92 (735553)
08-17-2014 8:14 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by RAZD
08-17-2014 3:23 PM


Re: Example 2 -- building code structural standards
So your world revolves around scientific knowledge and stuff that can be ignored (everything else).
Is that what I said, or did I limit my remarks to investigations into whether Yeti's exist?
NoNukes writes:
I'm not the least bit interested in a non scientific investigation into whether Yeti's exist.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by RAZD, posted 08-17-2014 3:23 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by RAZD, posted 08-18-2014 2:42 AM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 20 of 92 (735578)
08-18-2014 9:33 AM
Reply to: Message 18 by RAZD
08-18-2014 2:42 AM


Re: Example 3 -- storm sewer design
Just taking your comment to it's logical conclusion ... "I'm not the least bit interested in a non scientific investigation into whether [X] exist(s)"
Generalization is not always a successful strategy.
At this point I've just denied that your extrapolation is correct at least twice. I could of course fill in some X (e.g. Loch Ness Monster, Megalodon, or space aliens designing the pyramids) for which the statement is correct and some other X where the statement would not be correct.
However that may be, it curiously does not answer the issue of working hypothesis that are not necessarily falsifiable even though they can (and do) provide plenty of practical usage of information.
If you have a case for that, then make it. It should be quite clear that such a strategy is subject to confirmation bias. Nothing you discover using such a hypothesis will ever allow you to reach the conclusion that sightings of Yeti's were erroneous.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by RAZD, posted 08-18-2014 2:42 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 8:54 AM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 21 of 92 (735579)
08-18-2014 9:49 AM
Reply to: Message 19 by RAZD
08-18-2014 8:05 AM


Re: Example 4 -- bridge design
And I would say that they are not looking to falsify the (theory), but rather to make a practical application, and they throw on a factor of safety to help guard against failure and unknown stresses ... they are using a working hypothesis.
You would say that if your goal was simply to deny Tangle's point without actually making a point of your own. When the bridge performs as expected, that is at least a partial verification that the underlying calculations based on physics and material properties was correct. Those things would generally not be considered hypotheses.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by RAZD, posted 08-18-2014 8:05 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 34 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 9:04 AM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 24 of 92 (735607)
08-18-2014 6:04 PM
Reply to: Message 23 by RAZD
08-18-2014 5:45 PM


Re: Example 4 -- bridge design
Yet the engineer is basically a technician applying cook-book rules to the design, rules that he does not develop. Other engineers that check the calculations do the same thing, go through the same recipe.
That is part of what civil engineers do, but what you describe is not the complete story. In all but the most trivial cases, the cook book is insufficient to design a bridge or other complex structure. And of course the design rules themselves were produced by other engineers.
Besides that, civil engineers may well be the most cook book segment of the engineering profession. It is the much denigrated sister of mechanical engineering.
The amount of physics is actually rather limited in my experience, amounting to some standard set of mathematical models of material behavior (bending moments, shear loads, moments of inertia).
What is your experience? What do you think a PhD candidate in mechanical engineering does in school. Learn more thumb-rules?

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by RAZD, posted 08-18-2014 5:45 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 35 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 9:18 AM NoNukes has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 28 of 92 (735612)
08-18-2014 10:00 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by herebedragons
08-18-2014 8:26 PM


Re: Example 4 -- bridge design
Hey RAZD, just my 2 cents here (seasonally adjusted for inflation and unemployment)... the term scientist describes an occupation - a person who engages in a systematic activity in order to acquire knowledge. As does engineer, geologist, statistician, etc. I don't think it is a statement about whether that individual actually applies the scientific method or not.
Actually, at least according to Wikipedia, the word scientist can be used in both senses. When people say that scientists are not engineers, they are using the term in the more restrictive sense. I general use the term in the more restricted since, while Tangle has argued for a more expansive definition.
quote:
A scientist, in a broad sense, is one engaging in a systematic activity to acquire knowledge. In a more restricted sense, a scientist may refer to an individual who uses the scientific method.[1] The person may be an expert in one or more areas of science.[2] This article focuses on the more restricted use of the word.
On the other hand, in EvC debates, there is another, even more restricted sense in which the term is used. In most cases, it is unimportant whether an economist is actually a scientist or not because we don't expect an economist's opinion on evolution, cosmology, or geology or other science relevant to a debate about Christian Science to be of any special relevance.
There is a tendency among some scientists to characterize engineers as technicians because they generally don't do basic science. While there are some reasons to distinguish between the practice of engineering and the practice of science, a mechanical engineer is not a mechanic, and an electrical engineer is not a tv repair man.
The degree he has is a separate issue from the occupation he engages in. And again, whether he is an authority on any of the issues he writes about would depend on not only the degree he has but also the occupation he engages in; a degree alone does not makes one an authority. I would say he is more of a science fiction writer.
In particular, a person with an PhD in engineering is fully capable of doing science in an area of his expertise. But every person is fully capable of being a Creationist regardless of his training.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by herebedragons, posted 08-18-2014 8:26 PM herebedragons has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 29 by herebedragons, posted 08-18-2014 11:26 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 30 of 92 (735614)
08-19-2014 12:06 AM
Reply to: Message 29 by herebedragons
08-18-2014 11:26 PM


Re: Example 4 -- bridge design
Well, unless there is an appeal to authority (such as what sparked this whole line of discussion) arguments should stand on their own regardless of the credentials of the individual.
I think that about nails it. Following mram10 down the credential traill where he drops a couple of names and talks about supposedly significant numbers of unnamed scientists at unnamed secular university was the wrong tactic. He should have been called on his entire line of argument.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by herebedragons, posted 08-18-2014 11:26 PM herebedragons has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 36 of 92 (735623)
08-19-2014 9:25 AM
Reply to: Message 33 by RAZD
08-19-2014 8:54 AM


Re: Example 3 -- storm sewer design
The reason for the factor of safety is because the calculation results are hypothetical, the loading patterns used for the calculations are hypothetical ...
The term "hypothetical" here simply means calculated or estimated. It does not mean that the forces are a "working hypothesis" which appears to mean simply an explanation that RAZD neither falsifies or lets go of for any reason.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 8:54 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 42 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 10:21 AM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 38 of 92 (735625)
08-19-2014 9:31 AM
Reply to: Message 33 by RAZD
08-19-2014 8:54 AM


Re: Example 3 -- storm sewer design
And it would also be subject to confirmation of denial bias ...
Apparently not. The fact that your process cannot cast any doubt on the hypothesis is exactly the problem.
The question is whether it would lead to avenues of exploration that have not yet been pursued, such as looking at migratory and winter hibernation patterns in bears to see if that explains the anecdotal evidence.
That would not "explain" the evidence. Instead, your hypothesis would be used to confirm or explain anything that matched. Since you are not concerned with forming a null hypothesis, you are apparently going to simply keep looking until you find something about bears that does match.
So you would agree that such a working hypothesis would be unfalsifiable.
Good question. I am taking you at your word that you want to use an unfalsifiable hypothesis. In any event, you are describing using it in a way where you won't notice or allow falsification. I suggested forming a null hypothesis and you indicated that you would not be doing that and that you would not be doing a scientific investigation.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 8:54 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 43 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 10:24 AM NoNukes has not replied
 Message 46 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 10:36 AM NoNukes has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 39 of 92 (735626)
08-19-2014 9:33 AM
Reply to: Message 34 by RAZD
08-19-2014 9:04 AM


Re: Example 4 -- bridge design
But the point is that the design is not being done for the purpose of verification of the principles, the purpose is to provide a practical use of those principals -- the bridge.
Agreed. That's why civil engineers are not scientists.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 9:04 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 44 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 10:27 AM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 48 of 92 (735636)
08-19-2014 12:18 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by Straggler
08-19-2014 11:14 AM


Re: for the purpose of discovering further evidence
With regard to the abominable snowman and bears as per the OP — One could hypothesise that the abominable snowman is a myth borne of human invention combined with the embellishment of some genuine, but highly misinterpreted, bear sightings.
I would like RAZD to indicate what lines of inquiry he believes would not be followed if this hypothesis were used. RAZD seems to believe that there is evidence of yetis that only non-skeptics have a chance of finding.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 47 by Straggler, posted 08-19-2014 11:14 AM Straggler has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by RAZD, posted 08-20-2014 10:12 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 49 of 92 (735637)
08-19-2014 12:27 PM
Reply to: Message 42 by RAZD
08-19-2014 10:21 AM


Re: working hypothesis is a hypothesis used as a basis for further inquiry or design
You don't KNOW what the actual loading will be or how the bridge will be used in the future, so you develop several hypothetical scenarios of loading to use as a basis for the calculations.
Why don't you point out where I said anything that disagrees with your statement.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass

This message is a reply to:
 Message 42 by RAZD, posted 08-19-2014 10:21 AM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
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