Re: Critical Thinking Remix Again -- what is wrong with saying "I don't know" ???
In the first stage I not only lack belief in the bridge being there (or not being there), but I lack certainty about the condition of the bridge's existence, so I just don't know if the bridge is there or not.
Certainty is not required before forming an opinion.
Agreed, nothing prevents people from having whatever opinion they like ...
... but is that critical thinking or wishful thinking?
Well then it's a damn good thing I never made such a claim.
Perhaps that is why I clarified my observation. You know, the part you omitted from the quote ...
So you are saying that you believe the bridge is there, but that you are likely wrong about the shape, color and construction style of the bridge ... which seems a bit nit-picky imho ...
Does this help?
Would you not agree that if you do not know if the bridge exists, that any discussion of shape, color or construction would be opinion unbased on evidence?
Learn to read.
Curiously I see this statement to many replies here, and I suggest that perhaps the original statement was not clear ...
Re: Critical Thinking Remix Again -- and levels of certainty
... We form an opinion that man is an evolved primate and we teach such things to children without being 100 per cent certain. ...
Wanting 100% certainty on anything is, imho, a completely unreasonable standard. The level of uncertainty we can have varies with the amount and quality of information we have.
Life requires that we act without complete information. When we are short of certainty, one logical approach is to access the probabilities and consequences for being right or wrong and to act even in the face of uncertainty. ...
I have this from former debates regarding confidence:
Now the choices we make are clouded by our worldview and beliefs regarding the available evidence.
... We plan to drive to work crossing that bridge tomorrow and we are not 100 per cent sure our car is going to start.
Depending on your past experience with the bridge and the car you could have high confidence that (all things being equal) the bridge is likely to be in the same condition as you last experienced going to work, and you may have low confidence that the car will start.
Curiously I have a car with an intermittent short that drains the battery every time it rains and the car is parked. I can be pretty confident that the car won't start after a rainfall. So I have a "plan B" -- a "jump pack" battery in the trunk that I can hook up and start the car. (I keep it in the car in case I need it away from home). This works as long as the jump pack is fully charged ... and it takes about 5 extra minutes to get started.