Understanding through Discussion


Welcome! You are not logged in. [ Login ]
EvC Forum active members: 65 (9077 total)
121 online now:
AZPaul3, nwr, PaulK, ringo, Tanypteryx, Theodoric, vimesey (7 members, 114 visitors)
Newest Member: Contrarian
Post Volume: Total: 894,077 Year: 5,189/6,534 Month: 32/577 Week: 20/80 Day: 7/13 Hour: 5/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   2014 was hotter than 1998. 2015 data in yet?
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 15 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 211 of 357 (777387)
01-29-2016 11:53 PM
Reply to: Message 209 by Jon
01-29-2016 11:42 PM


I quoted conservative commentaries too.
[ Please, no replies to this message in this thread. If you'd like to participate in the discussion at the Did Jesus teach reincarnation? thread then please post over there. --Admin ]

The Oxford Dictionary is very conservative. It forcefully argues Mark was written in the 60s AD.

I quoted an evangelical conservative commentary that said that Jesus did not "necessarily" mean that John was a reincarnation of Elijah even though the plain text said so.

The Gospel of Matthew and Mark (and frankly Luke) say Jesus taught reincarnation.

See my quote of Jesus right at the top of the OP in my link.

The text backs me up clown.
http://www.evcforum.net/dm.php?control=page&t=19061&mpp=1...

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Edited by Admin, : Add moderator request to post in the proper thread.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 209 by Jon, posted 01-29-2016 11:42 PM Jon has taken no action

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 682 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 212 of 357 (777400)
01-30-2016 11:52 AM
Reply to: Message 206 by LamarkNewAge
01-29-2016 10:10 PM


What can we do, how can we do it?
It isn't exactly a "mission to the moon" to up the current wind turbine and solar panel quantity by a factor of 10.

Exactly: the technology already exists to make, install and connect solar and wind generation to the grid. What it takes is money upfront and motivation. Motivation can come through state and federal programs as can investment, but that takes political motivation

There is a lot of real estate available: electrical transmission corridors and interstate highway corridors for example. The advantage of linear installations is that they also act as transmission lines. Putting wind and solar along interstate medians meas that lighting (LED) could be provided increasing the safety of the highways even during blackouts.

Our town is currently negotiating use of and electrical transmission corridor for a bike and pedestrian path, and installing solar and wind along the corridor would also provide lighting for that use.

The key is integration with redundant local connections to provide alternative power during power outages as well as during peak use times.

I wouldn't expect an overnight transition from fossil fuels to alternative renewable energy, but a steady program to reach set goals in 5, 10 15 years is a doable program.

This can also be enhanced by shutting down new fracking, new pipelines, etc.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : d


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 206 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-29-2016 10:10 PM LamarkNewAge has taken no action

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 682 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 213 of 357 (777406)
01-30-2016 1:41 PM
Reply to: Message 184 by ringo
01-28-2016 10:50 AM


What is scalability?
They had time. They could afford to go down a few blind alleys.

And then there was the suppression of information\methods that were against corporate profit systems ... see Tesla system for free broadcast energy. Perhaps some of that can be revisited.

We're being sold solar energy by companies that stand to make a lot of money whether it's a blind alley or not. ...

What would make it a blind alley would be something that would negate, or render obsolete, current installations. I don't see this happening as what I see is more of a dispersed generation of power integrated with the current grid to transform it into more of an interconnected web where electrical energy can travel either direction over different sections.

Maybe Tesla broadcast energy would render the grid obsolete, but not the generation points.

... They are certainly not motivated to tell the truth about scalability.

What is scalability other than just increasing the size amount of array of solar panels. If they are modular (which they are) then there is theoretically infinite scalability, limited only by transmission and connection to the grid\end users (at which point it is like any power plant).

One has only to look at large installations by power companies to see that they are scaling the installation to their demand for new power. Some of them are massive. It becomes a matter of real estate occupied, and that is where residential roof-top installations excel -- less than half (say 40%) of my roof-top is covered with panels and my house occupies ~25% of my lot, so ~10% of my land area is all that is necessary to provide 100%+ of my electrical needs ... without restricting the living area of the lot at all.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 184 by ringo, posted 01-28-2016 10:50 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 217 by ringo, posted 01-31-2016 1:27 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 682 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 214 of 357 (777407)
01-30-2016 1:59 PM
Reply to: Message 201 by Jon
01-29-2016 12:32 PM


Re: How do we know?
... it's the world inhabited by humanity everywhere for most of its existence and in underdeveloped societies today - a world of scarce food, death by even minor illnesses, hard and brutal labor, and short lives, where folks live at the mercy of nature waiting to die by flood, drought, and plague.

And yet curiously, in those underdeveloped societies today the installation of solar (in india and in africa) is the best way to bring electrical technology to the people, because they don't need transmission lines or expensive to operate noisy generators, so the standard of living is improving there. The same applies to rural US and Canada where land is available and powerlines are scarce.

Frankly, we don't need big cities to provide intelligent solutions to problems -- university towns do as well a metropolitan ones.

If the use of fossil fuels is really going to cause such problems, ...

It is. We just don't know how fast it is going to happen. So far the predictions have been either on target or underestimated the changes.

... then we should all be very sad. ...

I am. But I am also angry and hopeful. Angry at the institution of denial and the interference by corporations with even discussing the problem. Hopeful that things will change, that obstructionist denial republicans will be replaced by rational representatives, and that significant programs can be implemented.

... Because we know what a world without access to the cheap, plentiful, and reliable energy provided by fossil fuels looks like: ...

Well, I don't think it will happen overnight, but it could happen in 10 years if a dedicated program was initiated to replace fossil fuels with alternative energy and reduced demand via higher efficiency.

I think we are on the cusp, and that continuing to plan on fossil fuels will only cause a larger more deadly end result.

Enjoy.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 201 by Jon, posted 01-29-2016 12:32 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 215 by Jon, posted 01-30-2016 9:03 PM RAZD has replied

  
Jon
Inactive Member


Message 215 of 357 (777428)
01-30-2016 9:03 PM
Reply to: Message 214 by RAZD
01-30-2016 1:59 PM


Re: How do we know?
And yet curiously, in those underdeveloped societies today the installation of solar (in india and in africa) is the best way to bring electrical technology to the people ..

But that's a lie, RAZD. Just another slick selling gimmick.

Kenya has more solar systems per capita than anywhere else.

And look at them: they're Kenya.

And as for India, they get over half their electricity from coal - U.S. is at about 40%. It's not sunshine lifting India from poverty, it is, as it has been with every country that's developed its economy, the always-on, cheap, reliable, and scalable energy of fossil fuels.

If renewable energy can be relied upon to fuel economic growth, the Indians certainly haven't found a way to do it.

.. because they don't need transmission lines or expensive to operate noisy generators, so the standard of living is improving there.

Well, if we're talking about Africa that's not saying much. The continent is so poor that you can improve living standards there just by giving people a cow.

Looking at countries like Kenya and contrasting them with countries like China the reality is so obvious you have to be willfully blind to miss it: Renewable energy is not the miracle cure for third-world poverty it is continually advertised to be; societies are rising out of poverty on the smoke and ash of their fossil-fueled fires, not on the hot-air of renewable energy.

Angry at the institution of denial and the interference by corporations with even discussing the problem.

The nice thing is that there are no corporations here. We can have an open discussion about renewable energy; you can set down some data on how various places might be able to meet their energy needs with just renewables and we can critique the numbers.

No censorship. This is your opportunity to prove your case.

Well, I don't think it will happen overnight, but it could happen in 10 years if a dedicated program was initiated to replace fossil fuels with alternative energy ...

What might that program look like and how would it meet the energy needs of 21st century humanity?

Again, now's your chance to show us the numbers.

... and reduced demand via higher efficiency.

Higher efficiency does not reduce demand. In fact, just the opposite: Jevon's Paradox.


Love your enemies!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 214 by RAZD, posted 01-30-2016 1:59 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 256 by RAZD, posted 02-07-2016 8:30 AM Jon has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19616
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 216 of 357 (777441)
01-31-2016 1:20 PM
Reply to: Message 188 by xongsmith
01-28-2016 1:32 PM


Re: Manhattan
xongsmith writes:

15 million panels... ??? What is the problem?


The problem is: How many square miles of panels is that?

xongsmith writes:

The buildings need only do themselves, not other buildings.


Again... that's why I used Manhattan as an example. I have my doubts that the Empire State Building can produce all of its own power.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 188 by xongsmith, posted 01-28-2016 1:32 PM xongsmith has taken no action

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19616
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 217 of 357 (777442)
01-31-2016 1:27 PM
Reply to: Message 213 by RAZD
01-30-2016 1:41 PM


Re: What is scalability?
RAZD writes:

What is scalability other than just increasing the size amount of array of solar panels.


The problem of scaling solar power is similar to the problem of scaling Godzilla. The power output increases by area whereas the density of power usage increases by volume.

RAZD writes:

It becomes a matter of real estate occupied....


That's exactly my point. What works in low-density suburbia will not necessarily work in high-density urbia.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 213 by RAZD, posted 01-30-2016 1:41 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 221 by NoNukes, posted 02-01-2016 2:04 AM ringo has replied
 Message 259 by RAZD, posted 02-08-2016 2:50 PM ringo has seen this message

  
Jon
Inactive Member


Message 218 of 357 (777453)
01-31-2016 6:51 PM
Reply to: Message 206 by LamarkNewAge
01-29-2016 10:10 PM


Re: How do we know?
Why not simply produce 10 times more solar and wind than we do presently?

That's a good question.

But since nobody here is going to actually do it, at the very least we could try talking about it.

And that involves you bringing it some evidence on how this wind-solar miracle of yours would work.

It isn't exactly a "mission to the moon" to up the current wind turbine and solar panel quantity by a factor of 10.

It isn't?

Are you sure? Have you run the numbers? Done the math?

If you haven't, how can you be so certain of the feasibility?

And if you have run the numbers, why the hell won't you just present them here?


Love your enemies!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 206 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-29-2016 10:10 PM LamarkNewAge has taken no action

  
Jon
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 219 of 357 (777454)
01-31-2016 6:51 PM


Where Has All the Sunshine Gone...?
Since I'm feeling more and more like I won't be able to rely on LNA to ever return to his claim that it "would only take a few square miles of solar panels (on top of roofs) to fuel the energy needs of the en[i]tre state [of Maryland]" and present some evidence for it, I figured I'd bring a little in to the mix to help add some reality to the brain-fuck fantasy he's been trying to sell us...

First, I'm going to restrict my focus to electricity, since dealing with all the energy used by the state of Maryland would be a difficult thing to do, since it isn't all easily or agreeably converted to electricity measurement units. Also, in every place where I fudge the numbers to save time and make things easier, I fudge them in LNA's favor.

Now let's begin.

California's 550 MW Topaz Solar Farm was said able to generate 1,100,000 Mwh of electricity per year. (I can't find any recent numbers on what it's actually generating, so we're just going to go ahead and believe the hype and assume it's lived up to expectations.)

It covers an area of 9.5 sq miles. (This is all available on Wikipedia: Topaz Solar Farm)

Maryland's electricity consumption was 61,000,000 Mwh in 2013 (Electricity Consumption by State, 2013 (pdf) - I don't know where these numbers come from, but it was difficult finding consumption numbers as opposed to generation numbers so I went with what I could find and rounded down 'cause I'm a nice guy)

Finally, based on this map the sun power in Maryland is about 75% what it is where the Topaz farm sits.

So there's the numbers, now for the math:

First, we will figure out how much Topaz could generate per year in Maryland by multiplying its annual Mwh output by 0.75: 1,100,000 x 0.75 = 825,000 Mwh

Second, we see how many Topaz's it will take to generate the electricity needs of Maryland:

61,000,000 / 825,000 = 73

Finally, how much space that will require:

9.5 x 73 = 693.5 sq miles

So that's how much space Maryland would have to cover in solar panels alone to generate all its energy from solar. Yes, Maryland has about 9,500 sq miles of land, but it's also only 250 miles at its longest. Also, real space requirements would increase due to need for energy storage systems and updated distribution. In any event, there is just no way to see this as 'a few square miles'.

But since I don't stop once I get going, let me just quote ol' Ron and say: But wait, there's more!

The Topaz system utilizes thin CdTe PV panels. Tellurium is rare on Earth. Ninety-three (93) metric tons of tellurium produces one 'gigawatt worth' of solar panel - that's the smoothest I could word that (Wikipedia again: Cadmium Telluride Photovoltaics).

The Topaz system can provide only 1/73 Maryland's power, so once we figure out how much tellurium is sitting in Topaz, we can just multiply it by 73 to get what we would need for a comparable Maryland system.

As a 550 MW (.55 GW) system, Topaz contains about 51 metric tons of tellurium. If we multiply that number by 73, we see that building a Topaz system capable of powering Maryland would require 3700 metric tons of tellurium. Now I want to quote the Wikipedia article about CdTe panels directly here, because the effect of seeing the numbers together is quite something:

quote:
Wikipedia on Cadmium Telluride Photovoltaics:

Only a small amount [of tellurium], estimated to be about 800 metric tons per year, is available.


So not only is it impossible to solar power Maryland with a few square miles of panels; even if we wanted to cover 693 sq miles of the state in panels, it would take over four times the entire world's yearly supply of tellurium to do it - ignoring the fact that we don't actually produce anywhere near that amount of tellurium (which would bring the number close to 25 times as much).

But wait, there's more!

As a percentage of actual reserves, that usage represents 15% of total proven reserves (Tellurium (pdf)). And that will power just 2% of the U.S. population. Scaling this up for the country would require not only over 7 times the amount of tellurium known to exist on the entire planet, but also covering 34,000 sq miles in solar panels made from non-existent materials. That's nearly the size of Indiana.

I think at this point it's safe to say that in terms of solar's power to fuel the world: Ain't. Happenin'.

Edited by Jon, : No reason given.

Edited by Jon, : No reason given.

Edited by Jon, : No reason given.


Love your enemies!

Replies to this message:
 Message 220 by Phat, posted 02-01-2016 1:57 AM Jon has replied
 Message 235 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-03-2016 5:35 PM Jon has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15996
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


(1)
Message 220 of 357 (777455)
02-01-2016 1:57 AM
Reply to: Message 219 by Jon
01-31-2016 6:51 PM


Re: Where Has All the Sunshine Gone...?
Doing a bit of research of my own, (my curiosity got the best of me!) I found that there are other materials with which to produce solar panels and that the cost is dropping.

I wouldn't give up on solar just yet.

Which Thin Film Solar Technology is the Best?

The article states:

quote:
So far Cadmium telluride is the first and only thin film photovoltaic technology to surpass crystalline silicon PV in price per watt of peak power, but this price advantage seems to be eroding as price of raw silicon has decreased and Chinese manufacturers increase their production of multi-crystalline panels.

There are some concerns about the future of Camium Telluride based panels, specifically the very limited availability of Telluride and increased concern in Europe about long-term toxic affects of Cadmium.


OK, look at coal. The cost includes the cost to run the coal trains, the cost to clean the atmosphere with scrubbers, the support of an entire Appalachian industry, etc etc.

Looks to me like solar is getting cheaper---and with proper technological advances, will eventually be as cost effective as the fossil fuels.


Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. –RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." –Mark Twain

This message is a reply to:
 Message 219 by Jon, posted 01-31-2016 6:51 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 222 by Jon, posted 02-01-2016 8:01 AM Phat has seen this message

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 221 of 357 (777456)
02-01-2016 2:04 AM
Reply to: Message 217 by ringo
01-31-2016 1:27 PM


Re: What is scalability?
The power output increases by area whereas the density of power usage increases by volume.

Volume of what, ringo? What parameter raised to the third power correlates to the observed/expected/predicted increase in energy usage?

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 217 by ringo, posted 01-31-2016 1:27 PM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 223 by ringo, posted 02-01-2016 10:53 AM NoNukes has replied

  
Jon
Inactive Member


Message 222 of 357 (777464)
02-01-2016 8:01 AM
Reply to: Message 220 by Phat
02-01-2016 1:57 AM


Re: Where Has All the Sunshine Gone...?
I chose the Topaz plant because it is supposedly the largest in the world, thus minimizing any errors introduced in scaling it up - which are probably still many.

But if you have an alternative proposal, feel free to lay it out on the table so we can examine and critique it.

I'd be delighted to see this work out in "a few square miles".


Love your enemies!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 220 by Phat, posted 02-01-2016 1:57 AM Phat has seen this message

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19616
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 223 of 357 (777467)
02-01-2016 10:53 AM
Reply to: Message 221 by NoNukes
02-01-2016 2:04 AM


Re: What is scalability?
NoNukes writes:

Volume of what, ringo? What parameter raised to the third power correlates to the observed/expected/predicted increase in energy usage?


The square-cube law applies in general to scaling. A building twice the length, width and height of a house will accommodate (approximately) eight times as many people as a house and will require (approximately) eight times as much energy while having only four times the area for solar collectors.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 221 by NoNukes, posted 02-01-2016 2:04 AM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 224 by NoNukes, posted 02-01-2016 12:32 PM ringo has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 224 of 357 (777469)
02-01-2016 12:32 PM
Reply to: Message 223 by ringo
02-01-2016 10:53 AM


Re: What is scalability
A building twice the length, width, height

Yes, but that is a bad model for how we Han dle growth. A closer model is a combination of either doubling the number of buildings or increasing the height of buildings as the population grows. If area is a limited resource, what is gained by doubling the length and width of any given building? Also consider that we don't have to have a building in order to have a solar array. Finally, some places, like say Manhattan are places where we might model pop density as you suggest, but that model does not match other places.

I understand that you are trying to point out the limitation imposed by the surface area needed to capture sunlight, but your analysis is not correct. The problem is really that per capita energy usage is approx. flat, (to first order) but surface area is limited.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 223 by ringo, posted 02-01-2016 10:53 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 225 by ringo, posted 02-02-2016 10:50 AM NoNukes has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19616
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 225 of 357 (777485)
02-02-2016 10:50 AM
Reply to: Message 224 by NoNukes
02-01-2016 12:32 PM


Re: What is scalability
NoNukes writes:

A closer model is a combination of either doubling the number of buildings or increasing the height of buildings as the population grows.


We're not talking about handling growth. We're talking about converting from one energy source to another.

NoNukes writes:

If area is a limited resource, what is gained by doubling the length and width of any given building?


What I'm saying is that (self-contained) solar energy doesn't seem to scale well to large buildings.

NoNukes writes:

Finally, some places, like say Manhattan are places where we might model pop density as you suggest, but that model does not match other places.


I'm only talking about the "some places" where the model does apply (which includes a large proportion of the earth's population). I'm asking if solar is a practical solution in those places. The answer seems to be "no".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 224 by NoNukes, posted 02-01-2016 12:32 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 226 by NoNukes, posted 02-02-2016 1:12 PM ringo has replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2018 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.1
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2022