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Author Topic:   Explaining the pro-Evolution position
Kleinman
Member (Idle past 335 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 76 of 393 (792444)
10-09-2016 10:04 PM
Reply to: Message 73 by AZPaul3
10-09-2016 9:44 PM


Re: This seems like a good place...
quote:
my argument is that randommutationandnaturalselectioncan'tdoit. And the reason rmns can't do it is the multiplication rule of probabilities.
quote:
Prove it.

Let's start with a simple minimally mathematic analogy to help you understand how rmns operates:
Let's say that in order for your family to survive, your family must win two lotteries. And the probability of winning the first lottery is 1 in a million and the probability of winning the second lottery is 1 in a million. For you to win both lotteries, that probability will be 1 in a million times 1 in a million, 1 in a trillion, a very low probability. But let's say you are lucky enough to win one of the lotteries and now you are very wealthy and because of all your wealth, you can raise a very large family. And now all your descendants start buying tickets to the second lottery. As soon as you have enough descendants, you will have a reasonable probability that your family will win both lotteries.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 73 by AZPaul3, posted 10-09-2016 9:44 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 78 by Coyote, posted 10-09-2016 10:10 PM Kleinman has not replied
 Message 79 by Theodoric, posted 10-09-2016 10:17 PM Kleinman has replied
 Message 84 by Dr Adequate, posted 10-09-2016 11:30 PM Kleinman has replied
 Message 85 by AZPaul3, posted 10-09-2016 11:30 PM Kleinman has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 77 of 393 (792445)
10-09-2016 10:08 PM
Reply to: Message 75 by Coyote
10-09-2016 9:59 PM


Re: This seems like a good place...
I have a problem with his simplistic statement that reptiles transformed into birds. I guess technically it is correct but he seems to be trying to confuse the issue by using term reptiles instead of dinosaurs. The idea of common ancestor seems to be lost on him.

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 75 by Coyote, posted 10-09-2016 9:59 PM Coyote has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 80 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 10:28 PM Theodoric has replied

  
Coyote
Member (Idle past 2105 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 78 of 393 (792446)
10-09-2016 10:10 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 10:04 PM


Re: This seems like a good place...
Please see Message 47.
This on-line lecture renders your mathematical argument invalid.

Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.
Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein
In the name of diversity, college student demands to be kept in ignorance of the culture that made diversity a value--StultisTheFool
It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers
If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle
If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1
"Multiculturalism" demands that the US be tolerant of everything except its own past, culture, traditions, and identity.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 10:04 PM Kleinman has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 79 of 393 (792447)
10-09-2016 10:17 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 10:04 PM


Re: This seems like a good place...
For you to win both lotteries, that probability will be 1 in a million times 1 in a million, 1 in a trillion,
Why?

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 10:04 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 81 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 10:32 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Kleinman
Member (Idle past 335 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 80 of 393 (792448)
10-09-2016 10:28 PM
Reply to: Message 77 by Theodoric
10-09-2016 10:08 PM


Re: The reason the theory of evolution is not true
quote:
I have a problem with his simplistic statement that reptiles transformed into birds. I guess technically it is correct but he seems to be trying to confuse the issue by using term reptiles instead of dinosaurs. The idea of common ancestor seems to be lost on him.
How do you take an ancestor which has scales and all the genes which produce scales and transform all those scale producing genes into genes which would produce feathers? Then consider that HIV can not efficiently transform two genes subject to three targeted selection pressures. And HIV is the fastest evolving replicator known with high mutation rates, huge populations and it does recombination. This is a consequence of the multiplication rule of probabilities.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 77 by Theodoric, posted 10-09-2016 10:08 PM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 82 by Theodoric, posted 10-09-2016 10:37 PM Kleinman has replied
 Message 138 by Pressie, posted 10-11-2016 8:07 AM Kleinman has replied

  
Kleinman
Member (Idle past 335 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 81 of 393 (792449)
10-09-2016 10:32 PM
Reply to: Message 79 by Theodoric
10-09-2016 10:17 PM


Re: The reason the theory of evolution is not true
quote:
For you to win both lotteries, that probability will be 1 in a million times 1 in a million, 1 in a trillion,
quote:
Why?

The joint probability of two (or more) random independent events is computed by multiplying the individual probabilities.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 79 by Theodoric, posted 10-09-2016 10:17 PM Theodoric has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 92 by jar, posted 10-10-2016 7:46 AM Kleinman has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


(1)
Message 82 of 393 (792450)
10-09-2016 10:37 PM
Reply to: Message 80 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 10:28 PM


Re: The reason the theory of evolution is not true
Well thats embarrassing. For you. Only took me one minute using the google.
quote:
Last year, scientists announced the discovery in Siberia of Kulindadromeus, a small, 150 million-year-old, plant-eating dinosaur that had both scales and feathers. The finding of such an ancient plumage prompted the group to speculate that a fuzzy coating of feathers may have been the rule for dinosaurs rather than the exception. Some artists have run with the idea and drawn up depictions of giant feathered brontosaurs.
Most dinosaurs had scales, not feathers, fossil analysis concludes | Science | The Guardian
So according to you there was no evolution from single cell to muticell creatures?

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 80 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 10:28 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 83 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 10:56 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Kleinman
Member (Idle past 335 days)
Posts: 2142
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 83 of 393 (792451)
10-09-2016 10:56 PM
Reply to: Message 82 by Theodoric
10-09-2016 10:37 PM


Re: The reason the theory of evolution is not true
quote:
Well thats embarrassing. For you. Only took me one minute using the google.
quote:
quote:
Last year, scientists announced the discovery in Siberia of Kulindadromeus, a small, 150 million-year-old, plant-eating dinosaur that had both scales and feathers. The finding of such an ancient plumage prompted the group to speculate that a fuzzy coating of feathers may have been the rule for dinosaurs rather than the exception. Some artists have run with the idea and drawn up depictions of giant feathered brontosaurs.
quote:
Page Not Found | The Guardian
So according to you there was no evolution from single cell to muticell creatures?


Ok, so let's try to follow your logic. Did the lineage of this creature always have scales and feathers? Or did it evolve from a creature that only had scales, only have feathers or neither?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 82 by Theodoric, posted 10-09-2016 10:37 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 284 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 84 of 393 (792453)
10-09-2016 11:30 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 10:04 PM


Re: This seems like a good place...
Let's say that in order for your family to survive, your family must win two lotteries. And the probability of winning the first lottery is 1 in a million and the probability of winning the second lottery is 1 in a million. For you to win both lotteries, that probability will be 1 in a million times 1 in a million, 1 in a trillion, a very low probability. But let's say you are lucky enough to win one of the lotteries and now you are very wealthy and because of all your wealth, you can raise a very large family. And now all your descendants start buying tickets to the second lottery. As soon as you have enough descendants, you will have a reasonable probability that your family will win both lotteries.
If you wish to say that evolution does not require all beneficial mutations to appear simultaneously, but that rather they can be accumulated by natural selection over many generations, then you could say so.
Indeed, you don't really need to say that: we are familiar with the theory of evolution. Perhaps, then, you could simply proceed to whatever point it is you wish to make. Thank you.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 10:04 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 97 by Kleinman, posted 10-10-2016 4:58 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 85 of 393 (792454)
10-09-2016 11:30 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 10:04 PM


Re: This seems like a good place...
my argument is that randommutationandnaturalselectioncan'tdoit. And the reason rmns can't do it is the multiplication rule of probabilities.
Prove it.
Let's start with a simple minimally mathematic analogy to help you understand how rmns operates:
Let's say that in order for your family to survive, your family must win two lotteries. And the probability of winning the first lottery is 1 in a million and the probability of winning the second lottery is 1 in a million.
So, in your mind this shows TOE to be false. OK.
Now we can go watch football.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 10:04 PM Kleinman has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 86 of 393 (792456)
10-10-2016 12:21 AM
Reply to: Message 62 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 8:25 PM


Re: Failing Peer Review
quote:
If you want to peer review my work, you had better have a good understanding of probability theory.
I suspect that if you honestly describe your argument a decent understanding of evolutionary theory will be sufficient to see the error. Nevertheless I believe that my understanding of probability theory will be adequate.
quote:
Here's the short answer why the theory of evolution is not true, it's the multiplication rule of probabilities which makes the theory of evolution not true.
Perhaps you can explain the model of evolution that you use to make those calculations. Because without that all you have is an assertion.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 62 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 8:25 PM Kleinman has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 87 of 393 (792457)
10-10-2016 2:28 AM
Reply to: Message 60 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 8:06 PM


Kleinman writes:
Be patient, I'm not trying to tease you, I'm trying to introduce you to the concepts required to understand how rmns works.
There's plenty of people here capable of reading and understanding anything you have to say without 'introductions'; put it on the table and stop dicking about with this patronosing bollox.
You've managed to piss off everybody here with your childish approach, take the hint, if you have something to say, just say it.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.
Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 60 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 8:06 PM Kleinman has not replied

  
vimesey
Member
Posts: 1398
From: Birmingham, England
Joined: 09-21-2011


(1)
Message 88 of 393 (792459)
10-10-2016 4:09 AM


"I can smell me a sharpshooter in them thar hills, Sherrif !"

Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 89 of 393 (792460)
10-10-2016 5:12 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 7:47 PM


quote:
Do you think that every mutation is beneficial? If lineages are exchanging genetic material, why can HIV evolve resistance efficiently to combination therapy?
The first question is an obvious non-sequitur- although for the record most mutations are neutral.
The second question is foolish. Saying that another factor must be considered in the general case obviously does not mean that it will make enough of a difference in a particular case.
And when do you intend to start supporting your claim that the theory of evolution is not well-established ?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 56 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 7:47 PM Kleinman has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 90 of 393 (792461)
10-10-2016 5:17 AM
Reply to: Message 57 by Kleinman
10-09-2016 7:50 PM


quote:
My argument is totally public and shows both mathematically and empirically why the theory of evolution is not true.
Really ? Has it been published in a peer-reviewed journal ? Has it been cited by other papers ? Do you have any reason to believe that it is widely accepted in the scientific community? Even if your assertion were true (and it doesn't look at all likely) it would not be sufficient to support your assertion.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 57 by Kleinman, posted 10-09-2016 7:50 PM Kleinman has not replied

  
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