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Author Topic:   Extent of Mutational Capability
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 131 of 279 (793464)
10-29-2016 11:42 PM
Reply to: Message 130 by CRR
10-29-2016 10:51 PM


When a chain of beneficial mutations lead to a favourable result we can expect evolution to find this fairly easily. A single point mutation is the easiest and can be readily achieved. When multiple non-beneficial mutations are required the probability is the multiplication of individual probabilities.
I picked this single statement out of all of the questionable ones in your paragraph. To avoid a dog pile, I'll leave the others to someone else. But those multiple beneficial mutations need not occur at once. If each of them can occur at different points in time after a previous one has become fixed in the population because it is somewhat beneficial, the probability that a mutation involving a multiple chain path way is increased substantial compared to the probability that all changes happened simultaneously.
For higher animals with small populations and long reproduction times, such as humans, waiting times can exceed all the time available since the beginning, even if you think that is billions of years.
Let's see your math. Identify the changes that biology says have occurred during the time when humans/apes possessed their long gestation periods and show that millions of years that has passed is not enough time. I'm certainly not going to simply take your word for that.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson
Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

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 Message 130 by CRR, posted 10-29-2016 10:51 PM CRR has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 148 by CRR, posted 11-01-2016 3:51 AM NoNukes has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(5)
Message 143 of 279 (793504)
10-31-2016 1:13 PM
Reply to: Message 136 by mike the wiz
10-30-2016 7:03 AM


The "little adds up to a lot" argument of micro evolution, is a false argument, and even if you argue it isn't, I remain of the opinion it is false and nobody can convince me otherwise, so I don't care if people disagree because I always know what I am talking about.
Thanks for letting us know as clearly as possible that your rambling post was not any kind of discussion. The above statement sums up your position quite nicely.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson
Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 136 by mike the wiz, posted 10-30-2016 7:03 AM mike the wiz has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 153 by Theodoric, posted 11-01-2016 10:20 AM NoNukes has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 218 of 279 (794746)
11-23-2016 11:51 PM
Reply to: Message 217 by Taq
11-18-2016 11:12 AM


nit picking on Thanksgiving eve...
A good analogy is a deck of cards. If you shuffle the deck and then lay out all 52 cards one at a time, the probability of getting those specific cards in that specific order is 52!
I think you mean to state that the odds are 1 in 52! or that the probability is 1/52!. Probability, by definition, is a number less than one.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson
Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 217 by Taq, posted 11-18-2016 11:12 AM Taq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 219 by caffeine, posted 11-24-2016 1:29 PM NoNukes has seen this message but not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(2)
Message 229 of 279 (797485)
01-22-2017 9:07 AM
Reply to: Message 223 by CRR
01-21-2017 10:33 PM


Re: Look Sharp
Yes, if the cards can be in any order it changes the odds a lot. Bridge probably has a similar problem to whist in that you have to follow suit where possible and shuffling between hands might not be perfect.
Isn't the probability exactly the same for any specified order of cards? Singling out an order in which the cards are dealt to each player in order, suggests that there is just one possible ordering to consider. Single ordering does not model abiogenesis because multiple resulting orders may be possible with only the sharpshooter's fallacy forcing you to so focus. And that's just the case for having random arrival without any selection or replication process that preserves useful orders which also does not model the proposed process very well.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson
Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith
Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000

This message is a reply to:
 Message 223 by CRR, posted 01-21-2017 10:33 PM CRR has not replied

  
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