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Author Topic:   The best scientific method (Bayesian form of H-D)
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5846 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 106 of 273 (79591)
01-20-2004 2:35 PM
Reply to: Message 104 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-19-2004 4:32 PM


quote:
I checked into MrHambres' discussion of MN, and see that H-D science is a subset of HN, with a particular set of methods.
If you are such a great scientist, in fact willing to debate the validity of MN at length, why would you need to go to MrH's thread to find that out?
This was apparent to me from the beginning and why I was suggesting that eventually one will be led back through the steps of creating MN, when trying to settle judgements of greatest pluasibility for a theory.
quote:
Whoever taught you to talk or think this way was not your friend.
Why not? I might throw the same insult back at you, and with more validity. It is reasonable to point out when an opponent has no evidence for a claim. It is not so reasonable to avoid this charge by using ad hominem.
quote:
Remember Yeshua's experience with the pigs and the demons, where they drove the pigs into the sea and drowned them.
No, which journal was this written in? Sorry for the sarcasm, but this is another dodge on your part. You were discussing a veterinary or zoologist friend of yours. I wanted to know if she ever treated, or read of treatments regarding demons affecting animals in her line of work.
If it is as common as what happened to Yeshua, it ought to be there right? And if not, then your animal-human analogy is constrained by occam's razor to physical parasitism.
quote:
No, actually. Fill me in.
I'll keep it brief. A group of pacific islanders were visited by a pilot. They had never encountered modern technology and thought him a god capable of of flight. He had a bunch of goods with him that they also found divine. He eventually left the island, never to return.
Years later, when another group of people from the "modern" world landed on the islands they had discovered the people had made a religion around the pilot and his items. His cargo... hence Cargo cult.
This is a specific, and definitive, example of humans mistakenly ascribing divine qualities to something they do not fully understand, and then building those initial ascriptions into a detailed religion.
quote:
"narrow is the gate, and few there are that find it." Jehovah has a habit of narrowing things down considerably, before expanding again. Very "evolutionary." Adam, Noah, Abraham, Yeshua.
And this gets you off the hook of arrogance, how?
quote:
Yes. Every entry of data into the system must be accompanied by a materials and methods section. Mine's the Bible. What's yours?
Ahhhh. Mine couldn't have been the Bible, because it didn't work, right? Same for all those Jews in the holocaust.
The data is there. If you choose to ignore it, you are doing so at YOUR intellectual peril. You may not get eaten by demons, but you've apparently already been gnawed on by some hucksters.
quote:
Could it be Satan?
Holy cow! Your posts have been so comedic I should have guessed all along. Dana Carvey is at EVC! Go churchlady go!
quote:
Actually, these guys are mainstream scientists extremely nervous about what they are discovering
They should be, because their studies are tenuous at best, and their credibility slipping away into that dark matter they pretend to study.
I know scientists that actually study dark matter. Your guys are wayyyyyyyyy off.
quote:
What am I supposed to do? I have gotten 7 natural and 6 adopted grandchildren from this philosophy. I get 3-400 citations a year from research I did 20 years ago. I've watched miracle after miracle take place, wonderful things. My students are international successes. I have friends who are laying their lives down for me. One of my biggest sources of discomfort is from eating too much, because the food set before me is soooo good.
A family I know that have been immensely successful, scientfically and socially, have fallen on hard intellectual times and got suckered into ID. They are still pretty smart, just a bit credulous. Sounds like you guys share something in common.
Look at how much Hugh Hefner has gotten out of life. Does that mean his philosophy is proven correct?
quote:
I pay no taxes.
This stems from H-D science? How does not paying for upkeep of the nation's government, mark you as someone superior intellectually or morally?
quote:
Lots of people thank me for helping them find richer lives. All from receiving, learning, the love of the truth. From paying the price to get the truth, by choice.
You are about to ask me for a donation aren't you? I'm supposed to tithe to you, right?
Goodbye huckster.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)< !--UE-->
[This message has been edited by holmes, 01-20-2004]

This message is a reply to:
 Message 104 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-19-2004 4:32 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has not replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 107 of 273 (79596)
01-20-2004 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 105 by Percy
01-19-2004 5:09 PM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
Percy,
I take it that you have no professional training as a scientist. Or maybe those who trained you botched the job up. At least, both these hypotheses are amply confirmed by your curious response.
But you ask,
Why do you praise yourself as "trustworthy authority"
Same reasons doctors put their diploma on the wall of their consulting room, and lawyers bring their license into the courtroom. All checkable. Professional last name is Fretwell. Currently cited several hundred times a year on research published 25 years ago, two, maybe three "citation classics." How I understand science to work has been tested and confirmed, validated. Those looking for the truth will want to know this. They ask, "Oh yeah, Who says?"
More importantly, this is the fallacy of argument from authority, made doubly worse in that the referenced supposed authority is yourself. Your arguments stand or fall on their own merits, not on whether or not you're a scientist.
Authority does not contribute arguments to the discovery of the truth. It does contribute counsel, advice on important ideas to consider, and important information to look up. You say that there is no scientific evidence for spiritual beings, I say that you are wrong, and give references. All those who choose to love the truth will, if they have any reason to regard me as a trustworthy authority, will check out the references. All those who choose to defend their opinions will ignore and remain ignorant of this information.
Less than one scientist in 1000 is honestly looking for the truth...
Can I assume that you include the scientists whose work you accept, including yourself, in this equation?
Yes. Like Diogenes, I look diligently for honest men and women, using certain criteria for making judgments. But even the crooks are useful.
The mere existence of (so-called) "pseudoscience and quackery" is not evidence of an ongoing paradigm shift. The fact of the matter is that your findings have found no standing in the scientific community, and there's a good reason for that - they're not supported by any evidence.
() remarks added, with quotes.
Kuhn supports with historical data his disagreement with this statement, which you do not do. So, I'm going with Kuhn.
Hospitals and doctors do not provide prayer as part of medical treatment. There are many churches that minister to hospital patients, and patients can indicate if they're interested in being visited by clergy, but prayer is not part of medical treatment.
What *has* been scientifically established is that maintaining social contacts and a positive attitude have beneficial effects on medical outcomes. Whether the social contacts are religious or secular makes no difference.
These are ignorant remarks, below you, Percy. Do your homework!
That's as dumb as saying the reduction in infections brought about by hand-washing confirms that germs exist. It does no such thing. Such sloppy thinking is why you're not convincing anyone here that you're a scientist.
Of course it does, especially if, as was the case, it was suspected and hypothesized that, if germs were the problem, hand-washing would cure it. Like I say, you are only proving that your science education is sorely lacking. No wonder you believe in evolution.
Anyone who doubts germs exist can be provided a microscope and some slides.
Now, 100 years later, they can. And only because those who put aside their skepticism on the matter researched it instead of discounting it out of hand.
Anyone who doubts demons exist can be provided...what, Stephen? What is your evidence for demons? You have all these fanciful ideas about where demons reside and what they can do, but you have no evidence of their reality.
Prayer studies. You can do them yourself, and will if you love the truth. But won't if you love your opinions. Do them right, that is.
I'm just referring to your own words which seem to be saying that you thought your scientific studies confirmed your religious beliefs.
I do not regard anything as religious beliefs unless the person holding them so identifies them. Hand washing is a religious duty to orthodox Jews, and a sound health practise to scientists studying microbes and disease. Baptism is a religious practise to Christians, and a part of the materials and methods in a prayer experiment to me.
I hope this makes this issue more understandable.
Stephen

This message is a reply to:
 Message 105 by Percy, posted 01-19-2004 5:09 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 108 by Dan Carroll, posted 01-20-2004 3:16 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied
 Message 109 by NosyNed, posted 01-20-2004 3:27 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied
 Message 115 by Percy, posted 01-20-2004 10:08 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied
 Message 133 by Abshalom, posted 01-21-2004 2:54 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

  
Dan Carroll
Inactive Member


Message 108 of 273 (79598)
01-20-2004 3:16 PM
Reply to: Message 107 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-20-2004 3:08 PM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
I would like, if I may, to provide a source that backs up his theories in the same ways that you have on this thread.
Enjoy.
By and large his ideas are not accepted. They present quite the paradigm shift, I must say.

"It isn't faith that makes good science, it's curiosity."
-Professor Barnhard, The Day the Earth Stood Still

This message is a reply to:
 Message 107 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:08 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 110 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:28 PM Dan Carroll has not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 9004
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 109 of 273 (79603)
01-20-2004 3:27 PM
Reply to: Message 107 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-20-2004 3:08 PM


Online?
Professional last name is Fretwell. Currently cited several hundred times a year on research published 25 years ago, two, maybe three "citation classics."
Are there any online for perusal?

Common sense isn't

This message is a reply to:
 Message 107 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:08 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 111 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:30 PM NosyNed has replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 110 of 273 (79604)
01-20-2004 3:28 PM
Reply to: Message 108 by Dan Carroll
01-20-2004 3:16 PM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
Dan,
To be regarded as bad science is a necessary (really, likely) but not a sufficient indicator of a paradigm shift towards truth. Not all "kooky" hypotheses are advancements, but virtually all major advancements are initially regarded as kooky.
The site you gave us is, indeed, fun.
Stephen

This message is a reply to:
 Message 108 by Dan Carroll, posted 01-20-2004 3:16 PM Dan Carroll has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 114 by Silent H, posted 01-20-2004 4:17 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has not replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 111 of 273 (79607)
01-20-2004 3:30 PM
Reply to: Message 109 by NosyNed
01-20-2004 3:27 PM


Re: Online?
Nosyned,
Do a Google search on SD Fretwell and Ideal Free Distribution. I do so myself, when I need cheering up.
Stephen

This message is a reply to:
 Message 109 by NosyNed, posted 01-20-2004 3:27 PM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 112 by NosyNed, posted 01-20-2004 3:37 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 9004
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 112 of 273 (79611)
01-20-2004 3:37 PM
Reply to: Message 111 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-20-2004 3:30 PM


Re: Online?
Thank you. Interesting.
What more recent publications do you have?

Common sense isn't

This message is a reply to:
 Message 111 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:30 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 113 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:55 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 113 of 273 (79614)
01-20-2004 3:55 PM
Reply to: Message 112 by NosyNed
01-20-2004 3:37 PM


Re: Online?
Nosyned,
My latest is 1987 or 1988, in Oikos, titled "Food Chain Dynamics, The Central Theory of Ecology." Unless I decide to go ahead and write my book, "Evolition, the origin of species by means of artificial selection and genetic engineering," this paper is my bid to make the big time in the history of science. It's coming along. But the Bible codes are predicting a nuclear holocaust in 2006, to which the Israeli intelligence is saying, "We already knew that from other sources." So, there may not be much a history of science to impress.
If you search on Food Chain Dynamics, use Oksanen's name as well as mine. He was my doctoral student, and we decided he ought to do the shepherding of the theory.
Stephen

This message is a reply to:
 Message 112 by NosyNed, posted 01-20-2004 3:37 PM NosyNed has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 116 by sidelined, posted 01-20-2004 10:42 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has not replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5846 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 114 of 273 (79619)
01-20-2004 4:17 PM
Reply to: Message 110 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-20-2004 3:28 PM


quote:
To be regarded as bad science is a necessary (really, likely) but not a sufficient indicator of a paradigm shift towards truth. Not all "kooky" hypotheses are advancements, but virtually all major advancements are initially regarded as kooky.
Yet the only ones that make it over the long haul, must first get through the wringer of MN based testing.
I also think you missed Percy's point on your constant claiming how great an authority you are. More than one of us on this site are scientists. Some with more or less credits on our resume than you, though I would suspect many more recent.
We could all start throwing out our shingles and beating on them to say that is why you should trust what I say. What point is there for this if we all have credentials?
Your theories must sink or swim, unattached to the buouy of your degrees and/or past research successes. If anything it seems more like attaching lead weights, because it simply is not impressive to someone else who has a degree or other credentials.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 110 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:28 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22497
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 115 of 273 (79690)
01-20-2004 10:08 PM
Reply to: Message 107 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-20-2004 3:08 PM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
I can only imagine what inner insecurities move you to incessantly tout your supposed scientific credentials, but your posts here indicate an inability to think or argue scientifically, or even to detect the relevant points. Perhaps at one time you wrote some scientific papers, but a la Hoyle you have "lost it", and in the here and now you have become Salty-esque and seem unable to argue lucidly or logically, or even to answer simple questions, like what is the evidence for demons. I’m not asking for references, I’m asking you to describe the scientific, replicable, falsifiable evidence for demons.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 107 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:08 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 117 by Mammuthus, posted 01-21-2004 4:43 AM Percy has not replied
 Message 118 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-21-2004 9:49 AM Percy has replied

  
sidelined
Member (Idle past 5935 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 116 of 273 (79693)
01-20-2004 10:42 PM
Reply to: Message 113 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-20-2004 3:55 PM


Re: Online?
Stephan
I want to offer a challenge to you. I enjoy this forum greatly and I feel that in all likelihood I will be on here for many years to come.
We finally get an actual prediction.
But the Bible codes are predicting a nuclear holocaust in 2006, to which the Israeli intelligence is saying, "We already knew that from other sources." So, there may not be much a history of science to impress.
I will tell you what.I will bet whatever you wish to on the inability of the prophecy you just made to come true short of you personally starting it. And by the by how did you get an inside on what the Isralei intelligence is saying or not saying? So on Jan 1 2007 I will be sending you a personal note that you are full of it.

'Everyone is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts.'
(Daniel Patrick Moynihan)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 113 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-20-2004 3:55 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 121 by Andya Primanda, posted 01-21-2004 10:25 AM sidelined has not replied
 Message 122 by NosyNed, posted 01-21-2004 10:59 AM sidelined has replied

  
Mammuthus
Member (Idle past 6502 days)
Posts: 3085
From: Munich, Germany
Joined: 08-09-2002


Message 117 of 273 (79726)
01-21-2004 4:43 AM
Reply to: Message 115 by Percy
01-20-2004 10:08 PM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
Funny you should mention Salty....after reading some of Stephen's posts and having engaged him in debate in two forums, I was beginning to wonder if he shares an IP address with the salt-meister...the evidence against this however is that 1)his posts are much longer than salty's two liners 2) he quotes himself as an important authority as opposed to Grasse and Salty's usual list of long dead heroes.
But you nailed it...like Salty, who also long ago published scientific work of note, Stephan lost it totally and does not appreciate much less understand science.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 115 by Percy, posted 01-20-2004 10:08 PM Percy has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 119 by mark24, posted 01-21-2004 10:04 AM Mammuthus has replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 118 of 273 (79755)
01-21-2004 9:49 AM
Reply to: Message 115 by Percy
01-20-2004 10:08 PM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
Percy,
You ask,
I’m not asking for references, I’m asking you to describe the scientific, replicable, falsifiable evidence for demons.
But the references do the job so well! What do you want me to do, post the entire paper by Witztum et al.? The entire reports of the prayer studies? Reprint entirely the book, Pigs in the Parlor?
Your problem is you don't know what science is, and are hoping or wishing that it is something that it is not. Ignoring how it got to things like looking at microbes under microscopes, you are able to maintain your wishful thinking by dis-allowing the process that discovered such technology. So along comes a real scientist, with demonstrable success, telling you what is really going on, and you react like the disgusting "scientists" who drove Semmelweis crazy with their skepticism. While killing thousands of women and their babies. OK, the women were poor, probably sluts, and good riddance. I suppose you think something similar about the people you are responsible for, that you refuse to pray the demons away from. But the proof of the pudding is in the eating. You demonstrate dramatically the adage that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
Stephen

This message is a reply to:
 Message 115 by Percy, posted 01-20-2004 10:08 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 120 by Percy, posted 01-21-2004 10:12 AM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

  
mark24
Member (Idle past 5222 days)
Posts: 3857
From: UK
Joined: 12-01-2001


Message 119 of 273 (79760)
01-21-2004 10:04 AM
Reply to: Message 117 by Mammuthus
01-21-2004 4:43 AM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
Mammuthus,
Sounds more like Syamsu to me!
Mark

This message is a reply to:
 Message 117 by Mammuthus, posted 01-21-2004 4:43 AM Mammuthus has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 123 by Mammuthus, posted 01-21-2004 11:06 AM mark24 has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22497
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 120 of 273 (79762)
01-21-2004 10:12 AM
Reply to: Message 118 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-21-2004 9:49 AM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
Stephen ben Yeshua writes:
But the references do the job so well! What do you want me to do, post the entire paper by Witztum et al.? The entire reports of the prayer studies? Reprint entirely the book, Pigs in the Parlor?
No, Stephen, I want you to quit the evasions and simply describe the evidence. You claimed there is more evidence for demons today than there was for germs a hundred years ago, and all I'm asking you to do is tell us what that evidence is. Most papers can be summed up in a few sentences. For example, the results of the IVF paper you cited were summed up quite succintly in only a paragraph or two by many newspaper and magazine articles. Th abstracts that precede many scientific papoers tells us that it is actually possible to provide summaries, and it is something you no doubt did yourself when you supposedly wrote your papers.
What I want you to do is very, very simple: put fingers to keyboard and briefly summarize the actual, scientific, falsifiable, replicable evidence for demons.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 118 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-21-2004 9:49 AM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 124 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-21-2004 11:07 AM Percy has replied

  
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