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Author Topic:   Extent of Mutational Capability
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 265 of 279 (799193)
02-07-2017 11:52 PM
Reply to: Message 264 by CRR
02-07-2017 11:24 PM


Re: Probabilities
So, you can't find anything you even think is wrong with my second argument?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 264 by CRR, posted 02-07-2017 11:24 PM CRR has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 266 of 279 (799195)
02-08-2017 12:24 AM
Reply to: Message 264 by CRR
02-07-2017 11:24 PM


Re: Probabilities
Well, there are a number of problems with this.
Problem 1
You write:
My basic calculations given above suggest to me strongly that genetic drift over ~7 million years would not explain the bulk of genetic differences.
But you also write:
Immediately after separation of a parent population into two separate species there will of course be a pool of mutations common to both species. [...] How much difference will this make? I don't know.
So your calculations involve ignoring a number of unknown size --- unknown except that you treat it as though it's zero when it certainly isn't.
Problem 2
Your choice of population size is arbitrary. You make no attempt to take into account the bottlenecks evidenced in the human population. What effect would they have? You don't know.
Problem 3
Because of one line in a Wikipedia article, you take 100 mutations/generation to be an "upper limit". But in fact there are scientific methods that give higher figures. See the first method given here, for example. (Obviously we can make no use of the second.)
Problem 4
You treat the length of time from the split as though it was fixed. It could be millions of years bigger.
---
Can anyone do better? I don't know. But given these four uncertainties, what we can say is that the range of figures we could get in theory includes the number we measure in practice. We're in the right ballpark. And unless and until the uncertainties can be reduced in such a way that theory can be shown to differ from practice, this is sufficient to provisionally conclude that the genetic distance between humans and chimps was produced by known real processes and not unknown magical ones.
---
Now, can you find any faults with my second argument?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 264 by CRR, posted 02-07-2017 11:24 PM CRR has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 267 by CRR, posted 02-27-2017 2:37 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 273 of 279 (800838)
03-01-2017 12:37 AM
Reply to: Message 267 by CRR
02-27-2017 2:37 PM


Re: Probabilities
1. I didn't ignore it and I acknowledged it was greater than zero, however it is unlikely to make up the deficit required.
But as it is non-zero, it must make up some of it, and so you are not entitled to ignore it.
So far you have not shown otherwise.
I have shown that it is non-zero, which means I can disregard any calculation that treats it as zero.
I can especially disregard such a calculation when its purpose has to be to set an upper limit on the genetic distance that could have been produced by non-magical processes.
2. There WAS was a bottleneck about 4500 year ago when the human population was reduced to 3 breeding pairs.
Not according to the evidence.
I did acknowledge the effect on variations in population size, however from the literature you can pick and choose the extent and duration of the bottleneck.
And yet although you "acknowledge" them, you totally fail to take them into account.
3. Your Sandwalk reference makes interesting reading. He acknowledges that MEASURED rates are well below 100 but argues for the higher figure so that the evolutionary story will work.
The higher figure is in fact also the product of measurement, and your speculations about his motives does nothing to cast doubt on the figure that was measured.
4. Indeed, and I said as much. "... but I don't think even that will salvage the situation. Now I could be wrong, but you'll have to do much better than so far to convince me."
Do you actually deny that more time will produce greater genetic distance?
I have already responded to your 2nd argument which I have said supports the idea of genetic entropy better than common ancestry.
I have no idea what you could possibly mean by this.
Do you agree that my second argument shows that the genetic distance between me and a chimp should be of the order of 2μG?
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 267 by CRR, posted 02-27-2017 2:37 PM CRR has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 275 by CRR, posted 03-15-2017 1:59 AM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 277 of 279 (802345)
03-15-2017 11:57 AM
Reply to: Message 275 by CRR
03-15-2017 1:59 AM


Re: Probabilities
1. Then do the calculations and prove me wrong.
OK. The amount of heterozygosity before the split will be greater than 0. The odds against the same alleles being fixed in two separate populations are astronomical. Therefore the contribution this will make to the final difference between the two populations is greater than 0. Therefore you are wrong.
3. Read the article again. The article gives the reason for rejection the directly measured rate.
I never said it didn't. It does. The reasons are as follows:
The direct method is not very reliable since the quality of the genome sequences is low and only a fraction of the genomes is actually sequenced. Typically about 60-80% of the genome sequence is reliable. The number of potential sequencing errors overwhelms the number of possible mutations so a lot of "adjusting" is necessary in order to weed out false positives and false negatives.
Did you have a point?
No. As I showed it does not support that conclusion.
What an interesting hallucination. Where do you think you showed this? Was it perhaps in post 248, where you admitted that there was "No problem with your second calculation"?
"What is Genetic Entropy? It is the genetic degeneration of living things. Genetic entropy is the systematic breakdown of the internal biological information systems that make life alive. Genetic entropy results from genetic mutations, which are typographical errors in the programming of life (life’s instruction manuals). Mutations systematically erode the information that encodes life’s many essential functions. Biological information consists of a large set of specifications, and random mutations systematically scramble these specifications — gradually but relentlessly destroying the programming instructions essential to life."
Nothing in my calculation bore any relationship to this witless anti-scientific fantasy.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
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