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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 89 of 887 (786577)
06-23-2016 3:45 PM
Reply to: Message 88 by Theodoric
06-23-2016 3:31 PM


Re: reports on referendum
* The BBC can’t report anything emerging from exit polls (which, by definition, are asking people how they actually voted), although the broadcasters have not commissioned any exit polls for the referendum.
Interestingly, I read that there are exit polls being conducted on the referendum, but not by broadcasters and news agencies. They're being done by banks - they won't be published of course; but the big banks don't want to wait for the official announcement of the results before telling their traders what to do.
And this gives me a bit of hope, since the pound at the moment seems to be rising against the dollar on the short term markets. Hoping that this means the banks have already called the vote for Remain, but it's possible I'm completelt misunderstanding the currency trading markets - not really something I know a great deal about.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 120 of 887 (786796)
06-27-2016 1:04 PM
Reply to: Message 119 by ringo
06-27-2016 12:18 PM


Re: Tribalism
That's ironic, considering the fences that the EU nations are putting up to keep out refugees.
But none of these are being put up by the EU as a collective institution, but by individual member states. One of the things that I think drove the Brexit vote was opposition to the EU commission's failed attempts to get member-states to accept refugees.

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 Message 119 by ringo, posted 06-27-2016 12:18 PM ringo has replied

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 Message 121 by ringo, posted 06-27-2016 1:14 PM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 124 of 887 (786805)
06-27-2016 2:07 PM
Reply to: Message 121 by ringo
06-27-2016 1:14 PM


Re: Tribalism
The EU's failures seem like a reasonable enough reason to exit.
Not unless you think every policy the Federal government fails to carry out is good reason for Sakatchewan to secede. Obviously giving up your right to vote is not a way to succeed in changing an institution's policy.
But given that those who wanted to leave the EU are also those who most wanted the Commission's plans for refugees to fail, I'm somewhat baffled as to what point you're trying to make.

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 Message 121 by ringo, posted 06-27-2016 1:14 PM ringo has replied

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 Message 125 by ringo, posted 06-28-2016 12:30 PM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 128 of 887 (786898)
06-29-2016 3:11 AM
Reply to: Message 125 by ringo
06-28-2016 12:30 PM


Re: Tribalism
Yes, I think failures on the part of the federal government would be valid reasons for provinces to consider separation. That's been happening in Quebec for decades with two referendums. Any time you're a member of a group it's healthy to think about why you might want to get out.
Seems an odd attitude to me. The time to get out would be the time at which it appears that the European Commission succeeded in every one of it's proposals, because this would mean we were actually in the situation Euroskeptics complained about - the dictatorial central power which could act without regard for the interests of the member states. If the EU is functioning as it should then the Commission should not be able to impose its will.
Is that a given? I know that the people who voted for exit are being branded as racists but I'm not buying it.
I didn't say they were racists; but yes it is a given that they were opposed to the Commission's refugee plan. Not necessarily all of them I doubt 17 million people were of one mind; but the primary concern stated by leave voters was that immigration was too high.

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 Message 132 by ringo, posted 06-29-2016 12:43 PM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 133 of 887 (786934)
06-29-2016 1:56 PM
Reply to: Message 132 by ringo
06-29-2016 12:43 PM


Re: Tribalism
That's what seems like an odd attitude to me. I would want to get out when I found out that there was a dictatorial attitude, not after waiting to see if they were any good at it.
'Dictatoial attitude' in this context meaning what? Proposing a policy?

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 Message 137 by ringo, posted 06-30-2016 12:13 PM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 146 of 887 (787070)
07-03-2016 6:05 AM
Reply to: Message 137 by ringo
06-30-2016 12:13 PM


Re: Tribalism
You're the one who used the word. I'm suggesting that the time to get out is when the dictator shows up. You seem to be saying we should only get out if the dictator is really bad at it.
I used the word dictatorial to point out that the European Commission isn't. 'Not a dictator' is not the same thing as 'unsuccessful wannabe dictator'.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 189 of 887 (793059)
10-19-2016 3:09 PM
Reply to: Message 157 by ringo
07-04-2016 11:51 AM


Re: Tribalism
Of course it can. Like any federal system, it has the power to overrule the sovereignty of any of its constituent states, provinces, etc.
I know this is a very old post, but I stopped reading the thread because I was depressed about the vote. I see no one ever responded, so I thought I'd point out that you're wrong. The EU is not a federal system, and the Commission has no authority to overrule national governments. EU law can override national law, but the Commission doesn't introduce law at a whim. Most law requires the consent of the democratically-elected parliament and a supermajority of member-state governments.
The Commission can express an opinion if it thinks a member state is in violation of EU law, but this opinion has no power; and it requires a ruling from the European Court of Justice to actually do anything. The last time the Commission told the UK it was breaking the rules, they took the case to the ECJ, and the ECJ ruled in favour of the UK government. What happened to their dictatorial powers there?
This has been part of the problem with this whole debate. The European system that has been slowly created as a series of compromises and makeshift solutions over the course of the last 70 years is fiendishly complicated, and very few people actually understand how it works. And this is not just the case for those who voted to leave.

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 Message 190 by ringo, posted 10-20-2016 11:55 AM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 195 of 887 (793174)
10-23-2016 6:19 AM
Reply to: Message 190 by ringo
10-20-2016 11:55 AM


Re: Tribalism
That's what I said.
No it's not. You said the European Commission can override national governments. It's the difference between saying that Federal law can overrule state law and saying that the President can overrule a State legislature. Do you not see any difference between these concepts?
So it's worse than I thought. Only "most" law requires the consent of the democratically-elected parliament. And the minority of member-state governments can be trampled on.
All law requires the consent of the democratically-elected Parliament.
Most law requires the consent of the democratically-elected Parliament and a supermajority of member-state governments.
Some law requires the consent of the democratically-elected Parliament and 100% of the member-state governments.
Edited by caffeine, : No reason given.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 196 of 887 (793176)
10-23-2016 6:31 AM
Reply to: Message 191 by Tangle
10-20-2016 1:40 PM


Re: Tribalism
That's not strictly true, it's more complicated and subtle than that.
It is the case that EU law overrides national law - in the UK this is enshrined in the European Communities Act. When this question was raised in the House of Lords, Law Lord Robert Goff argued in his judgement that it is:
quote:
(..)the duty of a United Kingdom court when delivering final judgment, to override any rule of national law found to be in conflict with any directly enforceable rule of Community law.
Which is perfectly in line with the ECJ's interpretation of EU law. The UK Parliament is perfectly within its rights to overrule EU law if it wishes, but it must do so explicitly, and would of course be required to leave the EU.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 198 of 887 (793234)
10-24-2016 12:43 PM
Reply to: Message 197 by ringo
10-23-2016 2:31 PM


Re: Tribalism
You're making more of a distinction between the Commission and the Parliament than I am. Personally, I don't care whether it's the left hand or the right hand that's doing the oppressing.
I was making a distinction between the Commission and the law, because they're very different things. The commission and the Parliament are also very different things. If you're not making these distinctions then you're not talking about anything, you're just blathering meaninglessly (much like the majority of the debate on Brexit.
And the minority of member-state governments can be trampled on.
But only in "some" cases. You think that's okay then?
Its a very odd way to look at things. I thought you were supporting Britain's exit from the EU, but it seems not, because almost half of voters wanted to remain - we can't trample on them, can we?

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 Message 197 by ringo, posted 10-23-2016 2:31 PM ringo has replied

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 219 of 887 (805743)
04-20-2017 1:16 PM
Reply to: Message 217 by Tangle
04-20-2017 3:46 AM


Re: British PM calls for elections in June
It's a negotiation. If she's elected with a large majority, whatever deal she does, she - and the EU - know that it can be delivered. It denies the EU a negotiation tactic.
I've never voted conservative in my life, but I think I'll have to this time around.
What? Didn't you just explain why it would be a disaster if the Tories win a large majority?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 217 by Tangle, posted 04-20-2017 3:46 AM Tangle has replied

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 Message 220 by Tangle, posted 04-20-2017 2:36 PM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(1)
Message 221 of 887 (805774)
04-20-2017 4:28 PM
Reply to: Message 220 by Tangle
04-20-2017 2:36 PM


Re: British PM calls for elections in June
I don't believe so.
But I think all of the alternatives are worse. I think we can trust this women to get a deal. After that god knows.
Theresa May is committed to ending what, to my mind, is the greatest acheivement of the European project - the free movement of labour. I do not want a Britain led to be May to have a strong negotiating hand. I would much prefer her weak and crippled by domestic dissension, if this would force her to concede this central point.
I'm reluctantly thinking of voting Lib Dem, as support for Europe is their one coherent policy.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 220 by Tangle, posted 04-20-2017 2:36 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 230 of 887 (811534)
06-09-2017 5:18 AM
Reply to: Message 229 by LamarkNewAge
06-08-2017 11:22 PM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
Conservatives loosing an outright majority might not mean too much really. I don't know.
Brexit, whilst important, is not the only thing that the British government and Parliament have to do with their time. The loss of a Tory majority most emphatically means something even if Britain still leaves the EU.
The truly horrifying thought here, though, is the prospect that there will still be a Tory government, but one reliant for its survival on the DUP. Not sure how familiar they are across the pond, but you will have come across the DUP on this forum. Faith posted a couple of rants about the Pope being the antichrist from Ian Paisley, the violent, hateful bigot who founded the party. Not a thought to relish.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 234 of 887 (811557)
06-09-2017 8:28 AM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
06-09-2017 8:01 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
God only knows what was on our minds. My own take on it is the the youth vote absented itself at the Brexit vote, noticed that they'd got something they didn't want and turned out in force at the election to attempt to reverse it or at least get something they approve of.
Theres nothing much mysterious going on. UKIP stood down in a lot of the country; and lost votes where they did since a lot of people feel that battle is now won. There is no need to vote for a single issue party any more. However, those votes did not all flow too the Tories - it's worth remembering that a lot of the strongest Leave votes were in staunchly Labour areas; and much of this support went back to Labour - especially now it's a Labour with a left-wing platform that people see as a genuine alternative.
Labour has energised a lot of support amongst young people, but also amongst the traditional left. You can see this clearly in unshakeable Labour strongholds like Merseyside. The Tories would sometimes come third, fourth or even fifth in the Liverpool constituencies, but this time finished second in all of them. This is not just because they increased their vote share (although they did), but because the vote share of the smaller parties plummeted. A lot of left-leaning voters who used to vote Green, Liberal or for minor socialist parties, since they felt the major parties had little to offer, have flocked back to Labour now they are presenting themselves as a genuine leftwing alternative.

This message is a reply to:
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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 235 of 887 (811559)
06-09-2017 8:38 AM
Reply to: Message 233 by Diomedes
06-09-2017 8:18 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
And what happened to the SNP? They were slaughtered last night.
In both number of votes and number of seats, this was the second most successful election in the history of the SNP. It only looks like a slaughter because you're comparing it to 2015 - the most successful ever election for the SNP.
I think part of the swing against them comes from people who look on independence for Scotland differently post-Brexit. If Scotland became an independent state but both Scotland and the rest of the UK were EU members; then Scottish and British citizens would be guaranteed the right to move freely across the border and live and work on either side without restrictions. There is no guarantee that would be the case if the UK leaves the EU.

This message is a reply to:
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