The Giant Pool Of Money. Implications

Welcome back!

I'm not here to stay, just thought I'd check in, maybe hang for a day or two. I'm active on Twitter and Reddit, though.

I used to believe the gold bugs and the predictions that they had for the economy. Now, I'll honestly admit I have no clue what will happen except that I now know (or at least believe) that debt is part of the whole game. The Fed seems to think they can control things, but I'm not convinced that inflation may not yet make a return.How have you been, crashfrog? I'm glad you stopped by! Yes, you told me so....and maybe you have a prediction for the next five years.....Edited by Phat, : No reason given.

Does anyone have an opinion on the probability that this debt will
1) Ever be repaid?
2) Need to be repaid or refinanced?
3)Is harmful for future growth?

My opinion:
1. Yes it will be repaid as so much is held by pension plans, 401k, and other wide spread funds that most Americans hold some of the debt whether they know it or not.
2. Repaid - yes. If the federal government defaults once, future borrowing will cost more as part of the risk/reward balance in determining rates. Refinanced - no most of the recent debt was at historically low rates that I doubt will get better.
3. Yes the growing debt is definitely harmful. The current debt consumes something like 14% (from memory) of all federal spending (incl Social Security & Medicare) and something like 25% of the federal budget outside the self funding Social Security & Medicare. Unless the federal budget is balanced (cut spending and/or raise taxes), that percentage will continue to grow until essentially all that is left is tax collection & debt repayment as a federal budget. Meanwhile the higher tax rates will stifle the economy and needed services (law enforcement, courts, infrastructure, education, etc.) will be abandoned.But that's the future and the voters believe the political promises so nothing changes.

Generally speaking, lenders are more interested in having a constant income stream from the vigorish interest than in having the principal repaid.

Don't we the people have a say in all this? Is there a difference ideologically between how conservatives in general view the debt vs moderate/liberals in general?Does one group profit more from the debt itself while the other group needs the government services more?

This is an over-simplification but: Right-wingers tend to see government like a business whereas left-wingers see it more like a family.In a business you're only concerned about the bottom line. If you're not making (enough) money, you can just shut the business down and go elsewhere.In a family you do what needs doing, no matter what it costs. If you have to run up a crippling debt to get healthcare for the kids, you do it. You can't escape family.

He bugged Saudi Arabia for months before they agreed to spend $350 billion more on financial aid to the well represented defense contractors.He is spending a hefty $500 billion more over 10 years in his budget.Looks like another $1 trillion is coming to the defense contractors.Their "military analyst" funding investment has paid off well.Talking heads are praising Trump on all the networks.Except for the attempt to get peace with Russia part. We need more war, weapons, and destruction so let's condemn the folks that Russia might possibly "brainwash" into a peaceful relationship. Treason to have a cup of tea, to borrow a Hillary line.

In retrospect, what I described did contribute to the election of Donald Trump, which may yet lead to World War III.Much of his support base came from a hollowed out, angry middle class that was being forced into becoming a lower working class.As for the implications regarding the future of money, I believe that several factors will play into the next great correction in our economy.One pundit predicts a "A 50% Stock Market Crash ... a 40% Real Estate Meltdown, and 25% Unemployment ".Even though he is selling his newslatter, his logic seems sound.Stocks are again overvalued and yet market participation is minimal. The corporations themselves are borrowing money to buy their own stocks and raise the value.Debt is an ever present concern.Greed is at an all time high.43 trillion dollars is riding on an active working force of baby boomers. When they retire, they will no longer contribute as much to taxes and the economy but will instead expect payouts such as social security.Does anyone have reason for optimism in the face of such logic?

OK, so Trump tries to run the country like a business, correct? So if the debt ends up becoming unsustainable, won't he simply pull the plug and allow the system to crash so that we can all start over with a new system? After all, Republicans always want the darn public to pay the debt rather than the wealthy.

Remember Trump has never declared personal bankruptcy. It seems he can live very well with other folk becoming bankrupt.

Also note this quote from Trumps book, The Art Of The DealWould this be what he would do to our country?Edited by Phat, : No reason given.

Is that what he said he would do?Does he have enough money and contacts outside the US to simply leave?

I dont see him leaving in the physical sense, though he likely has adequate assets to do so.I see him being stubborn as his ideas and obsessions get rejected by the political system and he finds himself a man with no platform.He may become stubborn and even go so far as to start a war simply to have some sort of legacy.