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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PaulK Member Posts: 18047 Joined: Member Rating: 5.0 |
In principle, if everyone agrees I think it could be called off.
But the chance of that is about zero, as things are. I can’t see the government surviving if it tried. There are too many Brexiteers among the Tories - they’re making things difficult as it is. Maybe if the Irish business brings down the Government (I don’t think it will). And if Labour get in (maybe, but I wouldn’t bet a lot on it). And if they can be persuaded to give up on it (another big maybe). The whole things a big mess. But it’s likely to get worse rather than better.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9627 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
No, not without another referendum.
There's still a hope that when we eventually get to the end of all this, the public will have realised what a fucking stupid thing we've done and another vote will be held. This time the students might get out of bed and vote. Long shot tho'.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2497 Joined: |
The 2017 year will be the first full year of the post Brexit United Kingdom.
Might as well take a look at the economic data when we have it. (Not like it isn't fair to see the report card) (I still have no idea why - with 57% of British incomes spend on housing costs ALONE(!) - immigrants were singled out & seen as some major drag factor, or a drag factor at all, on native Brit's well being. Slow population growth down, and hope for a little housing pressure relief? A real solution to very real economic problems would be nice.) Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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caffeine Member (Idle past 1342 days) Posts: 1800 From: Prague, Czech Republic Joined: |
In principle, if everyone agrees I think it could be called off. From a strictly legal point of view, it's not entirely clear. Per the treaty as written; the UK leaves the EU in March 2019. There is a provision that this date can be extended by mutual agreement, but that's intended to give more time for negotiations. I suppose it could be indefinitely extended, but that's not really in line with the meaning of the treaty. Rejoining the EU would, in theory, mean applying as a new member. Now, in one sense that would be simple - UK legislation is already in line with EU legislation, so the accession process can be completed as a formailty. Except that the UK currently has a bit of a cushy deal with the EU including several opt-outs. Applying as a new member would mean having to negotiate these anew; and some member-states (and the current Commission) are opposed in principle to the idea of any new opt-outs and exceptions in future accessions. In practice I think it's just a matter of political will - if member states all agree that the process can be cancelled, then it can be. If they don't then it can't. There's no precedent for this sort of thing.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 998 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Seems the situation with the Ireland border is turning into quite the quagmire for the UK leadership:
Theresa May rejects EU's draft option for Northern Ireland - BBC News
quote: I am honestly not sure how they will handle the situation. One the main reasons cited for Brexit was the requirement for stricter border controls. Now that appears to be undermining the fluidity of the current Northern Ireland border.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 998 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
House of Lords inflicts Brexit defeat on May’s government — The Irish Times
quote: This is turning into quite the pickle.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9627 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
It's going to get messier yet. There's a real chance of a 2nd referendum.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 998 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
It's going to get messier yet. There's a real chance of a 2nd referendum. I had heard some dialog in regards to that. Although from what I gather, that is a bit of a long shot. I think the concern is that if they call another referendum and Leave wins again, that will cause massive turmoil for the government. And likely result in them having to rush to meet the Brexit deadline next year. Might increase the likelihood of a 'hard Brexit'. IMO, that snap election called by Theresa May really undermined things. It necessitated having to create a coalition with that fringe party in Northern Ireland and also diminished her government's position in the eyes of the EU.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9627 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Diomedes writes: IMO, that snap election called by Theresa May really undermined things. It necessitated having to create a coalition with that fringe party in Northern Ireland and also diminished her government's position in the eyes of the EU. Her own party is split too into hard and soft Brexit with 'soft' meaning they're mostly remainers. The snap election made sense at the time, she should have won with a landslide, no-one predicted the result before it happened. It's a clusterfuck.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 998 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
The snap election made sense at the time, she should have won with a landslide, no-one predicted the result before it happened. Kind of sounds like the 2016 USA election. ![]() What is the legality of calling a second referendum? I am assuming that would be something parliament would have to propose? Or can the Prime Minister simply call for another one on her own?
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caffeine Member (Idle past 1342 days) Posts: 1800 From: Prague, Czech Republic Joined: |
What is the legality of calling a second referendum? I am assuming that would be something parliament would have to propose? Or can the Prime Minister simply call for another one on her own? Referendums have no legal force in UK law. I don't see any particular reason why the government couldn't call a referendum without asking Parliament, though it would be seen as more legitimate if it was legislated. There is legislation covering the conduct of referendums authorised by an Act of Parliament. A referendum done by the government on it's own sounds more like a publicly-funded opinion poll. And the 'publicly funded' bit is probably important. I'm a little hazy on how much latitude the government has to spend it's budget. There is about US$2 billion set aside in this year's budget as a emergency panic fund for costs incurred by Brexit going badly wrong. Could you get away with using that for a referendum?
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Tangle Member Posts: 9627 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 5.3
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Diomedes writes: What is the legality of calling a second referendum? I am assuming that would be something parliament would have to propose? Or can the Prime Minister simply call for another one on her own? It's murky and grey. It's not really about the law, referenda are purely advisory, but politically they can't be ignored. One view is that the decision to sign the final deal should be put before parliament and if parliament votes against, it would go to another referendum. Others say that the final deal should be put to a referendum anyway as no one knew what they were voting for in the first referendum. The government wants to do what it sees fit. It's all about how many votes the government thinks it can get.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 998 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream' - BBC News
quote: This is becoming quite the quagmire. It appears as though the hard line conservatives aren't going to be satisfied with anything but a hard Brexit.
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Pressie Member (Idle past 293 days) Posts: 2103 From: Pretoria, SA Joined: |
Hi Tangle
Another option someone mentioned the other day (I can’t remember which channel; Al-Jazeera I think) is that the UK cedes Northern Ireland to the Irish Republic and then the rest of the UK can do a hard Brexit as a lot of Britons want with fewer complications. Is that a realistic position remembering The Troubles and what would the legality be of such a situation?
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PaulK Member Posts: 18047 Joined: Member Rating: 5.0 |
While May is relying on the Ulster Unionists to prop up her government ? No chance.
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