Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total)
5 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 915,815 Year: 3,072/9,624 Month: 917/1,588 Week: 100/223 Day: 11/17 Hour: 0/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 111 of 887 (786703)
06-25-2016 9:44 AM
Reply to: Message 106 by Tangle
06-24-2016 12:41 PM


Re: The Rest
quote:
Sort of interesting side effects - the French and Spanish stock markets have fallen much further than the UK's.
Questions being raised about how strong the EU actually is.
The E.U. is the largest trading partner of the United States, so we are hurt when the U.K. is too weak (due to currency or per capita income issues) to purchase goods.
That's an argument against nationalism and borders, not for it.
When both the U.K. and the USA are hurt, then the rest of the world suffers, especially the E.U. countries. It cuts all ways in a not so virtuous cycle. Witness the Great Depression.
The British have a national debt to GDP ratio of about 90% (the USA is about 75%), and that was based on an economy with immigration and a growing economy. Now that the U.K. seems to want to shrink its way out of its problems, then expect the debt to GDP ratio to get quite a ways worse. (as things get worse,the nationalists will point the finger elsewhere, of course)
If other E.U. countries follow suit - leave the E.U. - then a depression is guaranteed.
But expect all stock markets to be hurt. This is bad news.
The other E.U. countries aren't going to solve a thing by leaving the E.U. Remember that the common currency Euro issue is a totally different one from the European Union. Perhaps the countries can solve their problems by dumping the Euro and having their own currency, then they can devalue their own like 99% to "pay" their debts. That is a different issue.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 106 by Tangle, posted 06-24-2016 12:41 PM Tangle has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 115 of 887 (786720)
06-25-2016 8:07 PM
Reply to: Message 114 by Big_Al35
06-25-2016 12:48 PM


Greeks are super duper aware of issues.
Remember that we destroyed their nation after World War 2, because their "communist" people actually had the audacity to defeat the Nazis.
The people overthrew our CIA installed right wing dictators in 1974, and became a democracy that hates the CIA and votes more often with our "enemies" (Russians, Palestinians, Africans etc.) in the UN.
Our state department used to classify Greece as part of the Middle East until recently.
The CIA propaganda against Greece is just unreal. Greeks understand most of it, but they don't have a clue about the lies the CIA spreads among American blacks. All sorts of "Cleopatra was black" conspiracy theories are very very strong in every single state in the USA.
Greeks aren't ignorant of the E.U. or anything. They can read the New Testament in its original language too.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 114 by Big_Al35, posted 06-25-2016 12:48 PM Big_Al35 has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 126 of 887 (786868)
06-28-2016 4:20 PM


WSJ article on pound strength
quote:
British Pound Gains Ground, but Few Predict a Recovery
Sterling remains near 31-year lows
....
analysts see Tuesday’s gains as a pause in a long period of weakness for the pound. The U.K. currency is also vulnerable because of the country’s large current-account deficit and an expectation foreign investment will fall following last Thursday’s vote.
British Pound Gains Ground, but Few Predict a Recovery - WSJ
Hardly a good sign for those who supported exit. This was so predictable.
On the plus side, I heard there are (already!) some 3-4 million signatures for a new vote. I hope there is a genuine tie-breaker vote avaliable soon. I hope.

Replies to this message:
 Message 127 by LamarkNewAge, posted 06-28-2016 4:28 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 127 of 887 (786869)
06-28-2016 4:28 PM
Reply to: Message 126 by LamarkNewAge
06-28-2016 4:20 PM


The article needs to be found in google to read in it's entirety
My link above won't enable you to read it, but you need to find it in google to read. WSJ articles are tricky to read. It is an hour old. I found it by typing "british pound" into google. Just quote some sentences to find it.
Anyway, here is an important part, from the article, I want people to see.
quote:
A weaker currency, though, could also stoke inflation, making it potentially harder for the Bank of England to reduce interest rates.
Analysts also highlight the U.K.’s record current-account deficit, which is sustained by large inflows of foreign capital, as a risk to sterling. If the investors providing those inflows go sour on the U.K., demand for sterling would slump and the pound’s value could plummet further.
Higher interest rates means less money for spending on programs plus it means higher taxes. Brexit brought this about and it was very predictable. Economics 101.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 126 by LamarkNewAge, posted 06-28-2016 4:20 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 152 of 887 (787090)
07-03-2016 11:48 AM


Look at the Polish situation and hope people will see the evidence. Fight ignorance.
In 2014 the Polish income per person was $14,331 U.S. and in actual purchasing power it was $25,265. The purchasing power (PPP) will be about $29,000 per person average by 2017 and 34,302 in 2020.
That purchasing power "feel" the average Pole will enjoy in their native land is about the same as the large E.U. countries of Britain, France, Italy, Germany, etc.
But in 2004 the average income was 2004 $6,643 U.S. and a PPP of $14,174.
Why on Earth would British keep complaining about those "poor Poles" incentivized to leave their land for other E.U. countries with all the progress?
Better to complain about the Ukraine and it's E.U. situation. It had an average income of 2015
$2,004 U.S. in 2015 and with a PPP of $7,518.
The Polish situation shows that progress is happening fast with (once) poor countries joining the E.U. The Ukraine example shows that the pain (of immigrants coming to "our country" for economic relief from miserable situations at home) will be prolonged.
Why not get the transition over with quickly instead of dragging it out for decades longer?
Honestly.
Lets get on with looking at the evidence so progress can happen quickly when policy is adjusted when based on facts.
Ignorance is hurting growth badly.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 164 of 887 (787322)
07-09-2016 7:12 PM


Bloomberg: Pound Overtakes Argentine Peso to Become 2016’s Worst Performer
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
A 12% drop this year against the dollar.
Good job Brexit supporters.
Superb.
P.s. Don't forget to check google news for the continued collapse of the pound.
Google

Replies to this message:
 Message 165 by bluegenes, posted 07-12-2016 1:33 AM LamarkNewAge has replied
 Message 166 by NoNukes, posted 07-12-2016 2:37 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 168 of 887 (787400)
07-12-2016 12:50 PM
Reply to: Message 165 by bluegenes
07-12-2016 1:33 AM


Re: Bloomberg: Pound Overtakes Argentine Peso to Become 2016’s Worst Performer
quote:
LamarkNewAge writes:
"A 12% drop this year against the dollar.
Good job Brexit supporters.
Superb."
bluegenes responds:
"Yes. That'll help exports and improve the balance of payments if it's not just a jitter. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 is at an 11 month high."
Serena Williams has lost over $260,000 out of her fortune due to the collapse.
quote:
http://time.com/...na-williams-brexit-pound-prize-money-loss
Last July, the pound was worth $1.5516, giving Serena a prize of $2,929,500 for her 21st Major title. But today’s value of the pound at $1.30 means she will only walk home with $2,597,400.
So what should have been a massive 5% raise turned out to be a $332,100 pay cut—around 11% less than last year.
It is worth about $1.31 right now. It was about $1.48 at the time of the Brexit vote.
Investors are already moving their money into other countries, though many are living under the delusion that the pound will somehow rebound, thus holding it from further collapse.
Eventually interest rates will have to rise (possibly by a lot) if investor stop living under the delusion that they will somehow get a return on their investment that isn't negative.
Interest rates were as high as 20%+ in the USA in the early 1980s, and they had to be quite high for a good while till investor confidence returned.
The U.K. is playing a dangerous game with this Brexit b.s. (and the economically destructive anti-immigration turn).
quote:
Lamark writes:
"P.s. Don't forget to check google news for the continued collapse of the pound."
bluegenes responds:
"I think you'll be disappointed, if that was meant as a prediction."
Look at how foolish the investors have been in the last year? They are starting to wake up (despite the delusions of the dreamers that are still part of the mix).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 165 by bluegenes, posted 07-12-2016 1:33 AM bluegenes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 180 by bluegenes, posted 07-20-2016 6:12 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 169 of 887 (787516)
07-16-2016 3:14 PM


Effects of Brexit seen right now.
The currency is loosing value (about 10% since the Brexit vote and well over 15% since a year ago)
Prices are rocketing up.
quote:
How food, clothing and homeware bills are likely to rise
By Brian Milligan
Personal Finance reporter
15 July 2016
From the section Business
Even if the pound regains some of its value, currency experts expect it to remain at least 10% below where it was on 23 June, in the long term.
So imported goods are about to get pricier. The only question is when - and by how much.
....
The UK imports at least 40% of its food, according to government figures.
....
In the short term all the big retailers have hedged against currency risk - in effect they've insured themselves against a fall in the pound - but these hedges will start to unwind next year.
....
And what about the EU migrants who pick our home-grown fruit and vegetables on low wages?
"Without the freedom of movement, the cost of producing food in the UK will come under further upward pressure," says Andrew Stevens.
....
The US computer maker Dell has already raised prices by 10% to its UK retailers this month, and the Chinese smartphone company OnePlus has put some prices up by 6.5%.
John Lewis, which imports two-thirds of what it sells, says it too will be under pressure to raise prices.
It has hedged its currency transactions until the end of next year, but after that may find it hard to hold prices down.
"The pound is a big issue for us next year. It will have an effect," says Andy Street, the store's managing director.
"If inflation gets into the value chain and into prices, it will feed through."
....
Meanwhile 70% of the cars we buy are imported, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
But the structure of pricing is complex. Manufacturers have greater flexibility over their margins than shops on the High Street, and they usually set prices according to competition in the local market.
In theory, buying a British-made car might be cheaper, but most of these use foreign suppliers, increasing the cost of production even in the UK.
In fact nearly 60% of components used to make cars in the UK are bought from abroad.
At the least, car prices are unlikely to fall
How food, clothing and homeware bills are likely to rise - BBC News
No wonder the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates the same or 0.25% above what would have happened absent Brexit.
Investors are preferring the Japanese yen as more stable than the pound (which is considered more unstable than bit-coin post-Brexit), and that currency should be considered a major risk IMO.
So the yen is gaining value against the pound. (like every other currency, including the Euro)
When the U.S. dollar was seen as a bad investment in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Japanese investors - who needed to dump the dollars they held - went to the United States land itself to purchase lots of property to protect themselves against dollar inflation.
I wonder if this will happen in the U.K.
Not yet it seems. See this link
Housing market 'falters amid Brexit campaign and vote' - BBC News
It says:
"Housing market 'falters amid Brexit campaign and vote'
14 July 2016"
That is just short term though.
Anyway, the suffering during higher prices and higher interest rates are what Ronald Reagan called the measurements of "The Misery Index". His solution was to have interest rates jacked up (Paul Volker was imposing it already) till investor confidence returned, then watch the national debt explode. Reagan (cough) paid for the much higher debt with (cough) tax cuts, and the debt exploded further. He increased military spending by around $100 billion per year by then end of his term (John Stockman attempted to keep the military spending increases minimal but Casper Weinberger won in influencing Reagan to jack them up a ton, though a tired, confused, Reagan only fully decided after Stockman gave him permission to go with Weinberger) and all the spending helped create jobs to compliment the already existing recovery that was in turn during the business cycle.
But the debt went up from $800 billion in 1981 to $4.2 trillion in 1993.
Interest rates went way down though.
The debt to GDP ration was much better for the U.S. in 1980 than for the U.K. in 2016. It was better in 1993 too. Much better still in 2000.
A miserable malaise is brewing in the British Isles.
There is inflation brewing.
What will happen with interest rates and economic growth?
What will investors do? (keep buying pounds and at what rate?)
Will Quantitative Easing be seen as a legit way to hold rates down? (granted it is presently seen as something not too much to worry over even though government printing money out of nowhere to purchase debt - treasury bonds OR mortgages - on the market was unheard of prior to late 2008)
At least this will be interesting.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 184 of 887 (787758)
07-21-2016 12:26 PM


Recession, inflation, and (no shock) quantitative easing schemes happening as we type
quote:
British slide into recession to force BoE’s hand next month — Reuters poll
in World Economy News
21/07/2016
....
Britain’s economy will slide back into recession in the coming year, forcing the Bank of England next month to cut interest rates and start purchasing bonds again to support growth, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
....
In the latest survey, the 2017 growth forecast was hacked to just 0.6 percent from the 2.1 percent predicted in a pre-referendum poll. The economy is expected to flatline this quarter and contract 0.1 percent next.
....
So to stimulate the economy and boost confidence, the Bank needs to act promptly as well as muscularly, Andy Haldane, its chief economist said a day after the central bank upset markets by not cutting rates at its last meeting on July 15.
....
Bank Rate was cut to an historic low of 0.5 percent over seven years ago and all but a handful of economists polled said the Monetary Policy Committee would chop another 25 basis points when it meets on August 4 in an effort to bolster the economy.
Some expected it to be cut to zero while a few said the Bank would hold steady. Bank Rate will then sit at 0.25 percent until at least the end of 2018 whereas the June 8 poll prediction was for it to have reached 1.5 percent by then.
A firm majority also said the MPC would revive the quantitative easing programme that was wound down in 2012, most likely also in August. The median suggested 80 billion pounds would be added to the 375 billion previously spent.
Such moves would be negative for sterling — the currency has already lost around 10 percent against the dollar in the weeks since the referendum, as predicted by a Reuters poll before the vote — and will stoke inflation.
For the first time in several years, inflation is likely to rise above the 2.0 percent target within the forecast horizon.
At just 0.5 percent in June inflation will hit target early next year and then rise to 2.3 percent the quarter after, largely a result of imported inflation on account of the fall in sterling since the Brexit vote.
But that is unlikely to trigger talk of rate rises.
....
Page not found | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
They need quantitative easing schemes to enable rate cuts. There will be inflation, but it could be massive if QE ever starts to look like a scheme and fumes itself into a very very bad odor (which will lead to a major crash and burn that would be unprecedented in history as QE itself had no precedent before the 2008 idea flashed like a light-bulb in the meeting halls American Fed which in turn became a worldwide "solution" to avoid having to raise interest rates. )
Warning signs are all around us, despite the general delusion.
quote:
Brexit Impact — Rise and Fall of the British Pound Explained
You must be very careful if looking to buy GBP in the short or medium term.
Aayush Jindal | Blogs (Retail FX) | Tuesday, 19/07/2016|13:11 GMT
The Brexit event proved once again that the forex and financial markets are very unpredictable. Have you ever thought that the value of the GBP could depreciate with such a pace and trade even below the 1.3000 level against the US dollar?
The GBP/USD pair did surprise many traders recently after the Brexit news and fell from a high of 1.5000 to a 1.3000 low. Other pound pairs like GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF also weakened and lot and suffered heavy losses.
Brexit Impact - Rise and Fall of the British Pound Explained | Finance Magnates
The British economy it poised to shrink with all the (recent) anti-immigration sentiment probably leading to actual slowdowns in immigration - a major source of the economic growth.
With the driver of economic growth in the U.K. stopped cold, the U.K. economy will follow.
The European economy will suffer the slowdown of the U.K. economy. (Poland for sure due to loosing remittances and a driver of their growth, but all will suffer from loosing export sales)
A deadly cycle at a very bad time - when national debts are at historically high levels.
Receding (or slowing)economies will suffer less revenue from less economic activity.
Less revenue to the government will lead to higher deficits.
Higher deficits will lead to the need for finding bond purchasers to finance the growing debt.
A growing debt and smaller GDP means a very high debt to GDP ratio (which could get way out of hand as has happened in Japan).
Quantitative Easing to the rescue?
For how long?
That's the big question.
Very big indeed.
The difference between super high interest rates and inflation and very low interest rates and inflation.
The difference between a default (which will cascade to multiple nations) on the one hand or steady-as-she-goes fiscal matters on the other.
The difference between growth (typically very small) and/or a (slight) recession on the one hand or depression on the other.
It's a big question because the consequences are so very big.

Replies to this message:
 Message 185 by Diomedes, posted 10-14-2016 2:55 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 187 by Taq, posted 10-17-2016 4:13 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 211 of 887 (804460)
04-09-2017 9:19 PM


IMF has 2017 List of Countries Projected GDP per capita (Poland hits milestone )
In 2005, only 15% of the world had PPP (purchasing power adjusted yearly income per person ) that was half of the yearly per person United States yearly income. That bumped up to 16% in 2014 (though some fell back from earlier, but the net was toward more PPP equality )
The website below has raw $ and PPP for 2017 and Poland will cross the 50% PPP according to the projections. But
Page not found - Statistics.com: Data Science, Analytics & Statistics Courses
The disturbing thing is that almost all of the top countries had higher incomes ( in raw dollars though PPP is pleasantly increasing and infact the projected world per capita PPP is at the highest level in history at a projected $17,050) in the past. The actual dollar based incomes (what these countries would see their income be if everything was exchanged for $$$) is actually over $1000 per person lower than a few years ago. And it isn't just the United Kingdom we are talking about here though those idiots did so much of the damage.
There are projections going up to 2020 for the world and individual nations. See links on left of the page the link takes you to.
The data in these links are literally the most important and telling measures of human progress and I mean it without exaggeration.
The 2014 situation had India as the world's 9th largest economy (in straight U. S. $ on the exchange ) and in 2016 it is 7th.
In 2020, India will number 5.
In purchasing power parity India will hit $9,306 in 2020 which will be an amazing milestone because, despite the overall world hitting an all time projected high of PPP per capita $19,611 in 2020, India will actually be over 50% of the world average for the first time in my lifetime.
China will have a PPP above the world average!
20,997 verses 19'611
The most recent data is from October 2016 so understand that the 2016 numbers are also projections.
The mmeasure of progress we must note:
2016 PPP
16,300
2020
19,600
The actual (exchange rate )dollar average for 2020 is still less than $1000 higher than the average in 2014-15 though but purchasing power parity is an accurate way to look at how things are able to be afforded by the people of the world. It is a very real measure of progress especially as it relates to whether folks will be motivated to leave or stay in their countrys of origin.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 229 of 887 (811519)
06-08-2017 11:22 PM


Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
Conservatives loosing an outright majority might not mean too much really. I don't know.

Replies to this message:
 Message 230 by caffeine, posted 06-09-2017 5:18 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 243 of 887 (824907)
12-05-2017 12:55 AM


Don't overlook the economic "growth" percentages for the world, western nations, & UK
The 2017 year will be the first full year of the post Brexit United Kingdom.
Might as well take a look at the economic data when we have it.
(Not like it isn't fair to see the report card)
(I still have no idea why - with 57% of British incomes spend on housing costs ALONE(!) - immigrants were singled out & seen as some major drag factor, or a drag factor at all, on native Brit's well being. Slow population growth down, and hope for a little housing pressure relief? A real solution to very real economic problems would be nice.)
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 269 of 887 (840018)
09-22-2018 12:26 AM


I have always notices that many Irish who lived in U.S. for a long time are confused.
They don't understand that the E.U. member state's free-migration requirement was the ONLY thing allowing free travel between Ireland and North Ireland.
I had to keep repeating it over and over to one guy.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 270 of 887 (840019)
09-22-2018 12:54 AM


On Scotland and the confusing over "nationalism".
Scotland was talking about splitting from the U.K. to stay in the E.U., but it was noticed that a good chunk (like 1/3) in Scotland support BOTH Brexit and the Scottish Nationalist Party, so that made the Pro-E.U. SNP much weaker (too weak) when it came to playing an anti-Brexit hand.
(Like 1/3 of SNP voters also supported Brexit)
It is a contradiction if one understands that the Scottish Nationalist Party is actually anti-nationalist, but not a contradiction to many SNP supporters.
(The SNP confusion is kind of like Gandhi being described as a nationalist even though he was for world government, and kind of like the confusing situation of World War 1 "Arab nationalists" foolishly supporting independence from Turkey ONLY LATER to find out that they weren't for nationalism & crushing anti-immigration borders BUT were simply for independence from single-entity domination)
The British always have had a way of creating lots of confusion due to the resulting endless "nationalism" movements to escape domination (they even "helped" Arabs escape domination from Turkey only to destroy the Middle East with never-ending borders WHICH TURKEY NEVER IMPOSED).
To the U.K., India was allowed to be its full size, when free travel was a one-way street (white British seemingly can go anywhere, but Indians could not), during the Empire. Borders went up as independence was being successfully fought for. (Not just an "Indian" border to separate from Britain, but India was chopped up ruthlessly by the British)
Only when the U.K. gets economic benefits will there be fewer borders and free travel. Otherwise, never-ending borders will be imposed ruthlessly.
This whole Brexit thing was over stopping immigration. The British have always had an anti-immigration mindset, and the E.U. is seen, by many Brits, as a pro-immigration Trojan Horse.
Viktor Orban (leader of Hungary) shut down a university (tied to George Soros) in his country, because Soros has been a promoter of the European Union, which Orban says has been used to "increase immigration". A scheme to Orban. And, yes, his supporters are often open anti-semites who call immigration a Jewish plot.
Brexit is anti-immigration, and it was over immigration. And many Labor supporters were pro Brexit (I read a New York Times article detailing how solidly Labor districts have 1/3 of the Labor supporters also supporting Brexit). And they will tell you it is about immigration.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Replies to this message:
 Message 271 by caffeine, posted 09-25-2018 10:39 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 272 of 887 (840226)
09-25-2018 8:03 PM
Reply to: Message 271 by caffeine
09-25-2018 10:39 AM


Re: On Scotland and the confusing over "nationalism".
The SNP is strongly in favor of remaining in the E.U., and with the border-free immigration between member states.
The "nationalist" part of the SNP is just about economics and oil revenue.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 271 by caffeine, posted 09-25-2018 10:39 AM caffeine has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 275 by caffeine, posted 09-27-2018 4:20 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024