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Author Topic:   Climate Change Denier comes in from the cold: SCIENCE!!!
Percy
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Posts: 18842
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 511 of 521 (841743)
10-21-2018 8:51 AM
Reply to: Message 510 by Stile
10-19-2018 9:47 AM


Re: A Sort Of Climate Change Related Question
Excellent and well explained. Thank you.

Stile writes:

However, if you've ever stood up a shelving unit at this point, you know it's very weak against lateral-movement still. If you push it from one side, the two side-ends (the "studs") push over together and the "blocking" shelves barely do anything to stop this motion. Of course... the shelves aren't nailed into the studs where the blocking would be... but this isn't adding a lot of structure... only the connection point of the single-nails-per-blocking-per-stud. It's still relative-ly weak against lateral movement.

However, there's always that super-flimsy back piece you put on those shelves. Put that on... and the entire shelf suddenly becomes super-rigid.

Doh! Yes, of course, I see now. Blocking in the shape of an 'X' would be far more effective than a horizontal block, but only structurally. It would be useless for providing a connection point where two pieces of plywood join.

This image was helpful:

So the hinge point they were actually talking about is near where that arrow is pointing at the junction between the truss and the side wall. I had wrongly assumed that the hinge point they were talking about was on the side of the building away from the arrow, again where the truss meets the side wall.

On which side of the gable would one install hurricane clips, the end where the arrow is, or on the sides? If the answer is both then how would windstorm plywood eliminate the need for hurricane clips on the side. Or if you don't need hurricane clips on the side then why not? Isn't lift generated here, too? In fact, isn't the danger of rollover from the sides, not the gable ends?

Your answer about hardware makes sense.

Thanks for the effort it took to explain all this.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 510 by Stile, posted 10-19-2018 9:47 AM Stile has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 512 by Stile, posted 10-22-2018 9:28 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
Stile
Member
Posts: 3838
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 512 of 521 (841807)
10-22-2018 9:28 AM
Reply to: Message 511 by Percy
10-21-2018 8:51 AM


Re: A Sort Of Climate Change Related Question
Percy writes:

Doh! Yes, of course, I see now. Blocking in the shape of an 'X' would be far more effective than a horizontal block, but only structurally. It would be useless for providing a connection point where two pieces of plywood join.

Absolutely.

On which side of the gable would one install hurricane clips, the end where the arrow is, or on the sides?

I'm not really sure.
My guess is either "on the sides" or "everywhere."

If the answer is both then how would windstorm plywood eliminate the need for hurricane clips on the side. Or if you don't need hurricane clips on the side then why not? Isn't lift generated here, too? In fact, isn't the danger of rollover from the sides, not the gable ends?

I think there are two different problems.

The hinge point at the gable-end-frame is one problem. I think we understand that one now, and how windstorm sheathing prevents it.

The other problem is the whole lift-issue and danger of rollover.
And I think you're right - these are a problem more on the sides, not the gable-end faces.

Therefore, the wind would have to change direction from those pictures and come from one of the sides in order to cause this second issue.

In my previous post - the section talking about the "butt-cut" and using windstorm sheathing from the bottom-of-the-wall to meet up with the bottom-of-the-top-chord-of-the-roof (covering the "butt-cut") is about protecting these sides and helping to greatly reduce lift along the sides. The windstorm sheathing connects the wall section to the roof section better (apparently) than hurricane clips.

I don't really know what a hurricane clip is... but I'm guessing some sort of single-point connector spaced out every 12" or so along the roof-wall connection line.

With no windstorm sheathing (and either a narrow piece of plywood covering the butt-cut or nothing covering the butt-cut at all...) these hurricane clips would be the only thing holding the roof onto the wall section. Perhaps there are some nails... but these would be vertical (from the roof down into the wall) - these vertical nails wouldn't do much in stopping the vertical lift from winds.

With the windstorm sheathing, we now continue the "flimsy-Ikea-backpiece-greatly-increasing-structural-stability" idea up from the wall section and onto the butt-cut area of the roof section. The horizontal nails holding the windstorm sheathing to the roof butt-cut section would be a great deterrent against vertical lift. As well, there would be many more nails in each windstorm-sheathing piece then there would be hurricane clips (I would guess).

Thanks for the effort it took to explain all this.

No problem. It was interesting for me too.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 511 by Percy, posted 10-21-2018 8:51 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
Percy
Member
Posts: 18842
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 513 of 521 (841997)
10-25-2018 7:49 AM


Climate Change Comes to Hawaii
It was recently discovered that several weeks ago Hurricane Walaka wiped a tiny Hawaiian island off the map. East Island was in the extreme northwest of the Hawaiian island chain and is thought to have only been a couple thousand years old. Scientists knew the island was vulnerable to climate change but expected it would endure another decade or two. Here's a before/after image of the former island:

In related news, a category 5 typhoon just hit the Northern Mariana Islands (it's a US territory about 3/4 of the way toward the Philippines from the Hawaiian islands, not too far from Guam). The government there is calling it the worst storm they've ever experienced:

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 514 by RAZD, posted 10-25-2018 12:00 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
RAZD
Member
Posts: 20111
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.9


Message 514 of 521 (842009)
10-25-2018 12:00 PM
Reply to: Message 513 by Percy
10-25-2018 7:49 AM


Re: Climate Change Comes to Hawaii
try link instead
https://e3.365dm.com/...52/skynews-hawaii-island_4463733.jpg

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : ??

Edited by RAZD, : .


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 513 by Percy, posted 10-25-2018 7:49 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18842
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


(1)
Message 515 of 521 (842198)
10-27-2018 4:34 PM


Northern Mariana Islands Before/After Photos
This Washington Post article has before/after aerial photos of the Northern Mariana Islands: Satellite images of destruction by Super Typhoon Yutu in the Northern Mariana Islands

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : No reason given.


    
RAZD
Member
Posts: 20111
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.9


Message 516 of 521 (851008)
04-18-2019 1:45 PM


Another Denialist recants
quote:
Former climate 'denier' regrets 'how wrongheaded but certain I was'

John Kaiser wheeled a cart with a TV and VCR into the lobby of an academic building on the campus of the University of North Carolina-Wilmington, popped in a well-worn VHS cassette, and played a video extolling the virtues of an atmosphere rich in CO2.

“It was a video that was made to look like a news show; there were people who looked like anchors in it,” recalled Kaiser. It was part of a campaign to attract students to join a conservative movement on his undergraduate campus.

“[The video] was all about how CO2 levels are rising, but that’s great! Because plants need CO2, and the more CO2 there is, the more plants will grow and the more crops we’ll have. And the more we’ll have to eat and this will be an age of abundance because of all the extra CO2 in the atmosphere.”

Kaiser recounted the spin with a dash of wry humor, “So don’t worry about what the lefties and the liberals tell you, this is actually going to make things better.”

“I remember playing that video so many times,” he mused. Of all the types of information the group shared, this one garnered the most ardent pushback. Kaiser described a memorable instance when a challenger confronted him, “Do you realize the damage you’re doing peddling this s***?”

Kaiser’s confidence at the time was telling: “I was so certain in my convictions, that I said, ‘I’m not lying, you can see the citations in the video, right?’ But I didn’t realize the extent to which they were twisting the references they had. I mean, I was 19 years old, and the video confirmed what I already believed, and so my confirmation bias was really strong at that moment. I didn’t have enough experience to overcome it. I’m ashamed I believed this stuff.”

‘I should have looked more deeply’

Kaiser says he now is motivated to publicly share his turnabout on climate change. “I just feel guilty that my generation was part of setting up the politics of today. That we played a role in spreading misinformation. That we were unwitting allies of merchants of doubt …. We didn’t realize that coal companies and oil companies were funding all of these things we were showing about the positive benefits of CO2.”

“I do feel some responsibility that I should have known better, that I should have looked more deeply into the issue, into who was funding the stuff that I was putting out there.”

“If I can do something to remedy it, it would be a good penance,” he had written to me prior to our interview. In that vein, Kaiser offers four takeaways drawn from his former role as a spokesperson against climate action.

1. Make it personal and local.

“So much of what you … care about, when you’re conservative, relates to the people who are in your circle,” explained Kaiser. “If you know people who are in your circle who are gay, well then you’re going to be more forgiving or more open on the gay marriage issue.”

“Maybe when climate change starts affecting their hometown, that’s when they’re going to accept it because that just seems to be ingrained within conservatism, that it has to be something that I can feel locally in my community. I think one of the quintessential aspects of conservatism is a distrust of outsiders.”

“[Climate change] has now suddenly become personal and so you can push the [conservative] ideology aside a little bit to actually address it because you are willing to trust and accept that it’s happening. Because now you’re getting testimony from the inside.”

Kaiser suggests shifting to a strictly economics-based argument. “If you want to move people quickly in the next five to 10 years, it’s probably easier to present an argument that solar and wind energy are now entirely viable than it is to present an argument that climate change is real and we need to address it.”
What? Me worry? Yes … ‘thought horrifies me … I worry’

Kaiser reflects on his contributions to stall action on climate change, and grapples with the implications for the future. “Now I’m a 39-year-old man with children who are going to reach maturity … in a world that will be worse than the one that I came to maturity in. That thought horrifies me, especially because I was out there on a weekly basis telling people, don’t worry about global warming, it’s not going to be a problem.”

“I’d like to say that there’s a part of me that believes that, politically and technologically, we will figure this out in time. And that the technology of geothermal, solar, wind, all of that, will advance … to fully replace coal, and a big chunk of oil. There’s a part of me that wants to believe that. But, having been a part of climate change denial, I worry about whether we can get to that point. And I worry especially as we see active attempts at sabotaging things like renewable energy industries.”

“Time will tell, we will see. I worry that it won’t be enough.”


Enjoy


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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6800
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 517 of 521 (853508)
05-28-2019 10:30 AM


Republicans' War on Reality Continues
'Cause conservatives think the world works on hope and wishes.

From the New York Times:

Trump Administration Hardens Its Attack on Climate Science

Trump's EPA will no longer be permitted to report on the long term effects of the current climate crisis.

In the most recent example, the White House-appointed director of the United States Geological Survey, James Reilly, a former astronaut and petroleum geologist, has ordered that scientific assessments produced by that office use only computer-generated climate models that project the impact of climate change through 2040, rather than through the end of the century, as had been done previously.

Scientists say that would give a misleading picture because the biggest effects of current emissions will be felt after 2040. Models show that the planet will most likely warm at about the same rate through about 2050. From that point until the end of the century, however, the rate of warming differs significantly with an increase or decrease in carbon emissions.

So once again the Republicans show contempt for highly trained people who actually know what they're talking about.

“What we have here is a pretty blatant attempt to politicize the science — to push the science in a direction that’s consistent with their politics,” said Philip B. Duffy, the president of the Woods Hole Research Center, who served on a National Academy of Sciences panel that reviewed the government’s most recent National Climate Assessment. “It reminds me of the Soviet Union.”

And just to show what kind of nuts Republicans want in charge of the discussion:

“The demonization of carbon dioxide is just like the demonization of the poor Jews under Hitler,” said the physicist, William Happer, who serves on the National Security Council as the president’s deputy assistant for emerging technologies.

-

Potential not-so-bad news from the Guardian:

Florida appoints first chief science officer to take on climate crisis

The state of Florida has appointed a science officer whose job is to examine and explain the science that will be necessary to confront the problems facing Florida from the climate crisis.


If this was a witch hunt, it found a lot of witches. -- David Cole, writing about the Mueller investigation.

Replies to this message:
 Message 518 by dwise1, posted 05-28-2019 10:43 AM Chiroptera has acknowledged this reply

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 3705
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 4.6


Message 518 of 521 (853509)
05-28-2019 10:43 AM
Reply to: Message 517 by Chiroptera
05-28-2019 10:30 AM


Re: Republicans' War on Reality Continues
So once again the Republicans show contempt for highly trained people who actually know what they're talking about.

And who saw it coming. As soon as Trump won the Electoral College, scientists in the EPA and NOAA and other government agencies started backing up all their data and research on servers outside the country in order to prevent its disappearance by the new administration.

The state of Florida has appointed a science officer whose job is to examine and explain the science that will be necessary to confront the problems facing Florida from the climate crisis.

Problems such as the disappearance of the entire state.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 517 by Chiroptera, posted 05-28-2019 10:30 AM Chiroptera has acknowledged this reply

    
Percy
Member
Posts: 18842
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


(1)
Message 519 of 521 (854822)
06-13-2019 7:21 AM


Climate Change for Dummies
Connect the Dots to See Where Trump’s Taking Us, an opinion piece in today's New York Times, makes a clear and entertaining statement about the nature of climate change. Here's a taste:

quote:
Think of the dots Trump refuses to connect:

Dot No. 1: Get the term “global warming” out of your head. What’s actually happening is better described as “global weirding.” The warming of the atmosphere makes the weather weird. First, the hots get hotter. This then leads to greater evaporation, which means there’s more water vapor in clouds for precipitation. So the wets get wetter and the floods get wider. But the droughts in dry areas also get drier.

Some of the colds can even get colder, as when a weakened polar vortex, which normally keeps cold air trapped in the Arctic, allows more frigid polar air to push southward into the U.S. At the same time, the hurricanes that are fueled by warmer ocean temperatures get more violent.

That’s why you’re seeing weird weather extremes in all directions. So, The Washington Post reported that in Montana: “On March 3, the low temperature tanked to a bone-chilling minus-32 in Great Falls. Combined with a high of minus-8, the day finished a whopping 50 degrees below normal.” At the time, the city was in its longest stretch below freezing on record.


Temperatures in Great Falls, Mont., did not rise above freezing for 32 consecutive days between February and March.
Rion Sanders/Great Falls Tribune

But then The Post reported that on May 11 in a town “near the entrance to the Arctic Ocean in northwest Russia, the temperature surged to 84 degrees Fahrenheit” — in May! Near the Arctic! And this happened at the same time that “the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eclipsed 415 parts per million for the first time in human history.”


--Percy


    
Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6800
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 520 of 521 (861108)
08-17-2019 10:39 AM


Jeet Heer: Green socialism or eco-fascism?
A column by Jeet Heer in this week's The Nation:

After the El Paso Massacre, the Choice Is Green Socialism or Eco-Fascism

(Title changed from the print edition)

Heer quotes the manifesto of the El Paso shooter to show how at least one strand of white nationalism uses environmental concerns to fuel its extremism:

"The decimation of the environment is creating a massive burden for future generations," the alleged El Paso shooter argues. "So the next logical step is to decrease the number of people in America using resources. If we can get rid of enough people, then our way of life can become more sustainable."

Heer points out that the economic scarcity that is coming with the current climate crisis is giving civilization a choice:

a socialist inspired path where the nation's resources are marshaled to produce an infrastructure that will mitigate the environmental ravages while maintaining a livable quality of life for everyone,

or an ugly, violent future where dominant groups impoverish less powerful groups to horder resources to protect their ever diminishing quality of life while nations engage in endless wars to grab each other's resources.


It says something about the qualities of our current president that the best argument anyone has made in his defense is that he didn't know what he was talking about. -- Paul Krugman

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4504
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.0


(3)
Message 521 of 521 (861328)
08-20-2019 1:15 AM


Iceland Just Held a Funeral For The First Glacier Killed by Climate Change

Okjökull, in Iceland's Central Highlands, used to be a large swathe of ice spanning 38 square kilometers. Today, it is a shield volcano with no glacial cover at all.

So the Icelanders set a plaque on the area and issued a death certificate. Sort of a publicity stunt with a sharp point to it.

Edited by Admin, : Narrow image slightly.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

  
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