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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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Can someone please explain some of the details of the Irish situation in this controversy? What are the issues there? The main issue to resolve is that the government is trying to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland; which is still part of the UK. The lack of a border was part of the original Good Friday agreement. When both the Republic of Ireland and the UK were part of the EU, this is a non issue since free movement between countries is part of the EU edict. However, now that the UK is leaving the EU, this essentially eliminates the current 'soft border' that exists. To help alleviate this problem, Theresa May's current deal has an 'Irish Backstop' provision which allows Northern Ireland to operate somewhat independently from the rest of the UK to avoid the need for a hard border. But the provision in the deal leaves this situation very ambiguous and could theoretically exist indefinitely. This has caused deep concern for members of the UK parliament and the DUP in Ireland, since they are still strongly affiliated with the UK. The following Youtube video explains May's deal in more details:
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caffeine Member (Idle past 1046 days) Posts: 1800 From: Prague, Czech Republic Joined:
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No Brexit is on the table in that the Government has the power to back out of Brexit. The government does not have the power to back out now - it's already enacted into law. It would need to be Parliament actively deciding to reverse the EU withdrawal bill. There are several MPs who would rather leave without a deal than accept any deal that has a hope of being accepted by anyone else; and enough others who don't want to appear before their electors as the MP who ignored their referendum vote. I think leaving without any deal is the most likely outcome at this point.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
The fun bit is that there is no majority in Parliament for any of the options - including no deal - but there's a sufficient minority to veto any and all of the deals.
It's a Mexican stand off which I'm hoping will result in a referendum simply because they can't decide. Preferably with an option of 'ah, stuff it, might as well carry on with what we've got'. Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17825 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
Nadine Dorries (Brexiteer) on May’s deal.
But unfortunately, the future of the country and of our relationship with Europe is at stake. This deal gives us no voice, no votes, no MEPs, no commissioner.
The Independent I will grant that she’s talking about the transition period but that’s still pretty much the way it has to be. If we’re out of the EU we don’t get a say. If we want to keep free trade going we have to follow some EU rules.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
It's a Mexican stand off which I'm hoping will result in a referendum simply because they can't decide. Preferably with an option of 'ah, stuff it, might as well carry on with what we've got'. The only way I see that happening is if Labour gets back into power. A possible scenario would go something like this:- May comes back with an updated deal. They vote on it and it fails. - Labour triggers a vote of no confidence in the government. - The DUP breaks ranks and side with Labour (as do some other MPs) giving them a majority - As a result, a general election is called and Labour gains seats and is able to form a coalition with others to get a majority - Labour calls for a second referendum re-asking the Brexit question In all honesty, I see the above as a remote possibility. Now it is possible that if May's deal fails, she will finally recant and say the vote should go to the people. But then, what would that second referendum look like? Would it just re-hash the same question? Would it be a referendum on May's deal or no deal? Would it include a provision for cancelling Brexit? Becomes really complex at that stage.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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I've decided that we'll have another referendum because that's what I want. I'm putting my fingers in my ears when anybody says anything else. It's a trick I've learned from Faith.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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caffeine Member (Idle past 1046 days) Posts: 1800 From: Prague, Czech Republic Joined: |
There are only 96 days and 5 hours till the UK leaves the EU. That's not a lot of time for your scenario to take place.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17825 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
The Parliamentary vote won’t be until January, probably as late as May dares make it.
However, if there’s a General Election there will be an extension of the negotiating period. Unless the EU wants to bounce the U.K. into No Deal. And I don’t think that they do.
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Taq Member Posts: 10045 Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
PaulK writes: No Brexit is on the table in that the Government has the power to back out of Brexit. Whether Parliament has the will to do that is another matter. But at this stage the alternatives are so awful I wouldn’t rule it out. May’s deal is looking dead. A No Deal Brexit isn’t any more popular. Going back to the drawing board and starting again isn’t much better, either. From what I have seen, the EU seems to be taking the "take it or leave it" path. It would be in the EU's best interest to make Brexit as painful as possible to keep the UK in within the EU.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
There are only 96 days and 5 hours till the UK leaves the EU. That's not a lot of time for your scenario to take place. Agreed. In fact, I think it is a Hail Mary at best. What I think is most plausible is that the deal either passes with a slim majority with some amendment to the Irish backstop. Or it fails and then the EU may be forced to take a softer approach to the whole situation to avoid a hard Brexit. I understand their desire to play hardball. But at some point, they must realize that having the second biggest economy in Europe get snafued is going to harm them as well. The analogy I would use is California or Texas in the USA. Those are the two biggest economies by GDP and if something dire was affecting either of them, it would likely cascade everywhere. No state would be insulated.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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I've decided that we'll have another referendum because that's what I want. I'm putting my fingers in my ears when anybody says anything else. It's a trick I've learned from Faith. You might want to invest in one of these:
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8536 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 5.0 |
The following Youtube video explains May's deal Very helpful. Thank you.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17825 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
Transcript
It’s time for the British public, the government and especially the Brexiteers to face reality. Sir Ivan is a former U.K. representative to the EU
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
May has now stated that the vote for her deal will occur in January. And now, Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister.
UK's Labour calls May no confidence vote over Brexit vote timing | Reuters
quote: I don't really understand this from a political perspective, but I am not that familiar with British politics. I thought May already dealt with a no confidence vote from her own party. And she survived that and cannot be challenged again for a year. Is it different because now the motion comes from the opposition? I thought they might be able to call a vote of no confidence in the government, but not the PM directly.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17825 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
The No Confidence vote May survived was a Party issue. If she lost she would be on her way out as leader of the Tory Party.
If Corbyn has brought a No Confidence vote against the Government, winning would have brought down the government and probably lead to a General Election. A Parliamentary vote of No Confidence in the Prime Minister, though, is just theatre. It makes a point about just how unpopular May is in Parliament, but that is it.
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