Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?

I read some of the supposed details on what Theresa May has planned as part of 'Plan B', in lieu of the defeat of her original plan in Parliament last week. For the life of me, I can't figure out exactly what the difference is.She mentioned waving the fee for EU residents living in the UK. I didn't realize that was so contentious since it was roughly 65 pounds. But beyond that, all that she stated otherwise was that she would work to get 'reassurances' on the Irish Backstop. But didn't she already try to do that? Am I missing something?

That actually does clarify Plan B. Question is: will it work? Seems like a dangerous gambit.

So if that is the case, doesn't that mean a No Deal Brexit is pretty much the most likely at this stage? The only options left are:1) May's Deal
2) No Deal
3) Second referendum (and/or general election)If May is running down the clock, option 3 seems to be highly unlikely. Especially considering the requirement for an extension of Article 50. Which would need European Parliament approval.I guess the only other potential option is a a revocation of Article 50. I believe the EU said Britain can do this unilaterally. Considering the political climate, that may be considered a betrayal of democracy. Of course, they could argue that they are only revoking it 'temporarily' to provide time for alternatives.As I said: clusterfuck and rapidly approaching shitstorm.

quote:

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Theresa May is addressing MPs after telling her cabinet she will talk to the EU later about reopening talks on how the UK leaves the bloc on 29 March.

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She is expected to have phone calls with key EU leaders throughout the day ahead of a series of Commons votes over the future direction of Brexit.

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The EU has ruled out making changes to the legal text agreed with the UK PM.

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But Mrs May has told her cabinet she will seek legally binding changes to the controversial Irish backstop.

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Brexit: MPs reject move to delay departure date - BBC NewsWell this should be interesting. Not sure how much the EU is going to budge. But perhaps with the prospect of a No Deal Brexit on the horizon, they might be willing to make some concessions.

I think there are also stickler points around whether or not the UK stays in the common market and the customs union. Several Labour MPs and Brexiteers seem to have widely different ideas about that. I think that has been their endgame from the get go. Either force a re-vote or broker a deal that is heavily skewed in the EU's favor. The last thing the EU wants right now is to foster a situation where the UK comes out on top and has an economy that starts to outperform the EU. That would set a dangerous precedent and could start to give ideas for thinks like Grexit, Italexit, Frexit, etc. Those are unlikely in my opinion, but there could still be pressure on Brussels if an economic slowdown occurs and affects the EU disproportionately relative to other countries.

Based on the latest voting in Parliament, it appears 'No Deal' has been 'officially' taken off the table. I can't say for certain if that is binding or not. But it appears the view from Parliament is that no deal is not viable. So that is good news.I guess now that leaves the following:1) Amended version of May's deal
2) Some alternate deal
3) Another referendumBased on May's speech, it appears another referendum is off the table and does not have majority support in Parliament. And there isn't a chance of a general election at this stage. So I am guessing option 3 is also a non starter.That essentially leaves either a tweaked version of May's deal or some other deal. A new deal from scratch is, in my opinion, impossible given the circumstances. So I am guessing that as the clock runs down, Parliament will end up grudgingly voting for May's deal. Unless they can make a strong case that a new deal is the best option and then convince the EU to provide an Article 50 extension.Well, that's the landscape as it currently stands. Mind you, with the way things have played out up to this point, I am not ruling out any of the other options, even those that are allegedly 'off the table'.

I just saw a video of Junckers at the EU saying there would be 'no renegotiation' of the existing deal. He may be grandstanding, but the EU seems to have been firm on its stance for some time. That would lead me to believe that the EU caving on the backstop is unlikely. Unless they acknowledge some 'reassurances' which are acceptable for Parliament. But they seem to not be keen on that versus actual, legally binding verbiage.If that is the case, May's deal or no deal seem to be the last options. I am still of the opinion that Parliament won't allow a no deal to occur. Only the strident Brexiteers are ok with that, but they are a minority. So my guess is when push comes to shove, May's deal might finally slide through. Unless of course, Article 50 is extended.

What fascinates me with the whole Irish border situation is that the UK government seemed to be completely clueless as to the fact that this is something that would need to be mitigated carefully. They must have known from the get go that the moment Article 50 was triggered, they would need to come up with a viable plan to accommodate an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland while ensuring they could complete Brexit on time. But I get the distinct impression that they just assumed they could 'fudge' it or they seemed oblivious to how difficult it would be. I found that whole situation to be totally mishandled from the start.Or as Tangle would say: Buggers Muddle!!

Technically not. But the UK would now have to revert to WTO rules regarding trade. Which would mean tariffs would come into play. Don't think so. But that may depend on the circumstances of each particular agreement. Some I think were jointly signed as overarching deals involving the EU as a whole. The UK would likely need to start renegotiating any trade deals with non-EU nations as well as re-evaluate existing EU specific deals. Yes. No, but there would now need to be border checks. Probably a bad idea. If the UK does do a hard Brexit, my suspicion is there will be a surge in imports of some good ganja in order to soften the blow. Technically, that would occur. But that would violate the Good Friday agreement. Hence the quagmire. (Buggers Muddle) If someone can get a clear shot at Boris, that may happen.

I think that summarizes Brexit in a nutshell. Yes, I think that may be unbecoming of a monarch. I am actually wondering if somewhere, deep in the recesses of Buckingham Castle, the legendary sword Excalibur lies dormant. And if a hard Brexit becomes inevitable, the Queen procures the sword, gives it to the Duke of York, and then he shows up in Parliament and threatens to go all Braveheart on their assess if they don't resolve Brexit once and for all. Would certainly make for interesting theater.

Less likely, but Brexit has thrown enough curve balls that nothing should be discounted. At this point, May has direction from Parliament to broker some amendments to the deal. The EU ministers have stated many times that the current deal is the only deal. If they stand firm, May will have to return to Parliament with no concessions from the EU. At that point, if that occurs, my suspicion is they may vote to extend the Article 50 deadline to provide time to consider other options. The EU will likely grant that, although it isn't guaranteed. I think the upcoming EU elections may throw a wrench into that.I am still of the opinion that the EU might be willing to provide some 'verbal reassurances' regarding the backstop and maybe might even put something vague into writing. That might be sufficient for Parliament. But judging by the stubbornness being showcased by politicians right now, they may still not be able to pass the existing deal.

The problem with playing chicken is when neither individual swerves. The end result is a crash. The only credible solution that I can think of is to use technology and transponders. If you made electronic gates and issued transponders to residents of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland that they could install in their cars, that could likely allow free flow of people in and out. Customs checks are a more difficult situation and it may be that trucks and cargo planes entering or leaving would require some sort of checking. Not perfect, but it would at least allow the border to be somewhat permeable.

I'm also curious about Gibraltar. I know that's come up a few times in discussions, but seems to have been drowned out by the Irish border talks. Not sure if that has been resolved either.One of the main problems that the UK is facing with Brexit is one of the core tenets of Leave was securing the border. If fact, it was probably the most important talking point from their side. So allowing any level of fluidity to any border in essence is violating the notions of Brexit.As I mentioned before, I am honestly flabbergasted that this situation wasn't adequately planned for with regards to the UK government once Article 50 was triggered. These aren't stupid people. But the sense I get is that their solution is 'we will figure it out'. Well, its been two and a half years and nobody seems to have a tenable solution. That appears to be what makes the backstop so unpopular. Nobody knows how they will fix the issue with the Irish border. They just assume it will be done 'at some point'. Not exactly a resounding vote of confidence.

Thanks for the link. The story seems to allude to the same kinds of technological border solutions we've all brought up on this thread already. So as before, I am somewhat surprised the UK government hasn't taken more steps to already begin work on such a solution. It would go a long way towards alleviating concerns about the backstop if they had some sort of strategy on how they would handle a 'soft border', using technology along with estimates as to how long it would take to implement. That would certainly be more favorable to the kicking the can down the road and 'we'll figure it out' approach they have taken up to this point.Regarding Gibraltar, well, one problem at a time I guess.

If Brexit occurs, I think at some point, Britain will eventually rejoin the EU. Unless Brexit actually does turn out to be a net positive in the long run. Personally, I doubt that would be the case. But you never know.Regarding the EU, despite the issues of late, I actually think it will survive just fine. The EU, like any new political and socio-economic endeavor, is going through some growing pains. That isn't unusual. The United Kingdom itself dealt with internal strife for many generations before things calmed down. The USA had plenty of issues including a civil war. But it also survived. Maybe I am a cockeyed optimist, but I generally believe that things sort themselves out eventually.