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Author Topic:   Maths & Probabilities
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 1 of 36 (849244)
03-01-2019 4:49 PM


In this topic I want to ask a few questions.
Say I had 100 2nd chance entries in a drawing. The set number of potential 2nd chance entries is already determined, but the actual amount rests on how many people enter them and turn them in.
Do the probabilities change any if I enter them at spaced intervals rather than all at once?
Do the more entries one has increase their probability of winning or is that still the same whether one enters 1 or 100?

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Tangle, posted 03-01-2019 5:01 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 3 by PaulK, posted 03-01-2019 5:33 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 4 by NosyNed, posted 03-01-2019 11:31 PM Phat has replied
 Message 5 by Theodoric, posted 03-01-2019 11:56 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 7 by RAZD, posted 03-02-2019 6:47 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 11 of 36 (849263)
03-02-2019 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by RAZD
03-02-2019 6:47 AM


Gambling again Phat?
Not really. I pick up the losing tickets out of the trash and turn them in online at the 2nd chance drawing. It does not cost me anything.
I know better than to base my hopes for retirement on gambling.
Then again, I sometimes wish that God would improve my odds.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by RAZD, posted 03-02-2019 6:47 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by RAZD, posted 03-03-2019 11:32 AM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


(1)
Message 12 of 36 (849264)
03-02-2019 3:17 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by NosyNed
03-01-2019 11:31 PM


Re: More description please
NN writes:
What is a 2nd chance entry?
Bonus Draws
quote:
Scratch Bonus Draws give you a second chance to win. Only non-winning Scratch tickets are eligible for entry based on each Bonus Draw’s requirements.
There is a wide variety of Scratch Bonus Draws available so be sure to check often. Simply locate the 22-digit number under the scratch-off coating and enter it into the Lottery’s website or scan the barcode on the ticket using the Colorado Lottery’s mobile app.
I know I know...this is all a waste of time. I know better! Its that damn brain pattern. The pre-frontal lobe is overstressing again, now that I have bills and my union might strike.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by NosyNed, posted 03-01-2019 11:31 PM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by NosyNed, posted 03-02-2019 9:03 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 14 of 36 (849276)
03-03-2019 3:05 AM
Reply to: Message 13 by NosyNed
03-02-2019 9:03 PM


Re: Expected Value per hour
tHE PRIZE AVERAGES $500,000.00 AND THE USUAL AMOUNT OF TICKETS TURNED IN IS AROUND 230,000

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by NosyNed, posted 03-02-2019 9:03 PM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by NosyNed, posted 03-03-2019 11:51 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 17 of 36 (849283)
03-03-2019 2:56 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by NosyNed
03-03-2019 11:51 AM


Re: Expected Value per hour
Realistically its likely not worth it, if every factor were calculated in.
I never go out of my way to find tickets, though. At the store, often people will leave stacks of losing tickets near the machine, and the first one who scrounges them up gets to enter them.
I'm aware of the statistical odds. In my mind, however, I always try and link God (as I understand and believe in Him) up with it all and magically eliminate the need for statistical improbability. Money is simply one vehicle which I could imagine God using to bless someone. I am at my core a selfish and stubborn individual. My thinking about entitlement is likely flawed, but I cling to it as part of my hope. As you know, I fought and fight gambling addiction my entire adult life, and realize the critical errors in thinking from an intuitive level. Likely I started this topic in the hopes that someone would validate my hope in mathematical reality. Who am I kidding, though? You all even say that God Himself does not likely exist. I wont let go of that belief, however. I dont care if it had actual odds of a trillion to one!
Does anyone have any more insights into the science of probability?

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by NosyNed, posted 03-03-2019 11:51 AM NosyNed has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by Tangle, posted 03-03-2019 5:17 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 19 by PaulK, posted 03-04-2019 2:10 AM Phat has replied
 Message 20 by Theodoric, posted 03-04-2019 8:47 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 22 of 36 (849291)
03-04-2019 11:16 AM
Reply to: Message 21 by ringo
03-04-2019 10:50 AM


Freedom From Favored Thinking?
I totally agree. I am convinced that my gambling is more than simply a brain disorder---it is a plot of Satan, author of chaos. (See the other topic I resurrected)
My problem, among others, is that I may have a faulty concept of God as granter of favor. Blessings are basically favors bestowed. jar used to always pin me with the question of why I expected God to favor me. Once I made a clever reply:
quote:
jar writes:
What were the odds that the puddle would be located exactly where it had to be to capture the pine cones and those bicycle tire tracks and that two different people would walk along the same path or that not one but two cars would wander through that same spot.
Thats my point. There are no odds.
To wit:
Phat writes:
Intelligent design makes much better sense than random design. The whole idea of we humans being the "winner of a cosmic lottery" is so much nonsense.
jar writes:
Now that is just a really silly statement that makes God look pretty stupid. You seem to like making God look either stupid or evil or more often, both.
How are humans any greater winners of some cosmic lottery than cockroaches or pond scum?
Again, my point is that there was no cosmic lottery.
Are you asserting that humans are no more special than cockroaches or pond scum? Did God so love the pond that He sent His only begotten scum?
Did God send a cockroach born of a virgin to fight the evil Black Flag Empire?
...lets resume our discussion at the older topic. We had a good one going in late 2016, when I was starting my year of sobriety from gambling. My brain was freed from the brain disorder that led me to gamble, and my thoughts were clearer back then.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by ringo, posted 03-04-2019 10:50 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by ringo, posted 03-04-2019 11:47 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 25 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-04-2019 12:39 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 24 of 36 (849299)
03-04-2019 11:56 AM
Reply to: Message 19 by PaulK
03-04-2019 2:10 AM


Re: Expected Value per hour
PaulK writes:
On the theological side, my reading on the NT suggests a rather negative view of wealth and that God’s provision should be expected to be more on the lines of a hand-to-mouth existence.
I know that isn’t what you want to hear, but that’s the way I see it.
I am afraid you are right! I used to want to be a Pastor. Now I cringe at the thought. Life is stressful enough already. I'm just mad that God does not seem to statistically favor me.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by PaulK, posted 03-04-2019 2:10 AM PaulK has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 28 of 36 (849315)
03-05-2019 9:51 AM
Reply to: Message 25 by Tanypteryx
03-04-2019 12:39 PM


Re: Freedom From Favored Thinking?
I could almost imagine God asking me the same thing. Perhaps He used your thoughts....

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-04-2019 12:39 PM Tanypteryx has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 29 of 36 (849316)
03-05-2019 1:14 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by Theodoric
03-04-2019 8:47 AM


Re: Expected Value per hour
Theodoric writes:
The prosperity gospel is a scam to separate rubes from their money.
It almost sounds like you are channeling jar. I wonder how he is doing anyway? He replied to my email and said that EvC got boring...I know that I for one have regurgitated my same topics for over ten years.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by Theodoric, posted 03-04-2019 8:47 AM Theodoric has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 30 by Theodoric, posted 03-05-2019 3:20 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18295
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 32 of 36 (849332)
03-06-2019 2:24 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by ringo
03-04-2019 10:50 AM


Lepre-Cons
ringo writes:
many of us take leprechauns just as seriously as we take your God.
Where would He fall on the chart above?
Edited by Phat, : No reason given.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile

This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by ringo, posted 03-04-2019 10:50 AM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by NosyNed, posted 03-06-2019 2:36 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 34 by ringo, posted 03-06-2019 3:01 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 35 by dwise1, posted 03-06-2019 6:18 PM Phat has not replied

  
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