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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 483 of 887 (848514)
02-08-2019 10:19 AM
Reply to: Message 482 by Percy
02-08-2019 12:36 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Optimism is nice, and if things don’t eventually sort themselves out they do at least settle down, but those who died in the Civil War or WWI or WWII or Vietnam or the troubles or the African famines or the Congolian rebellion or whatever are still dead. Wrong choices do have consequences, sometimes dire ones, and the thought should lend some urgency to getting things right.
The problem is hindsight is often 20/20. So despite indicators in the present, it isn't always easy to tell how good or bad a decision might be until after the fact. Consider the American Revolution. My suspicion is every economic indicator and every naysayer at that time would have stated it was a terrible decision to break away from Britain. Yet that actually turned out ok.
When Neville Chamberlain was performing an appeasement policy with Germany, the notion was to avoid war at all costs. Most pundits were in agreement with him and they actually vilified Churchill for being a 'warmonger'. Yet we all know how that turned out.
Generally, the universe unfolds as it should. But good/bad decisions are often not quite as obvious as one might think. And that perceptions and politics can often skew reality one way or the other.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 482 by Percy, posted 02-08-2019 12:36 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 484 by Percy, posted 02-08-2019 5:17 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 485 of 887 (848555)
02-09-2019 10:55 AM
Reply to: Message 484 by Percy
02-08-2019 5:17 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Foresight is often pretty good, too. A united Europe is a more prosperous and peaceful Europe, and a Britain within the EU is better off than a Britain without. A general, optimistic and unspecific, "But one never knows what will happen and it could turn out fine in the end," seems to ignore what we do know.
Foresight is good, but imperfect. What is the old adage: "The road to hell is paved by good intentions." We as humans, are flawed. We are prone to bias and we often don't have all the facts provided to us due to political wrangling whereby narratives are controlled. And this occurs on both sides of the aisle. So where one side might tout the benefits of Brexit and a sovereign UK, the other will state the pitfalls of isolation. Who is right? Well, that is something we will have to find out. Because ultimately, as per my examples, foresight can be good, but it is imperfect. And often, the true reality is skewed by media pundits that have views one way or the other and the politicians who have their own self interests.
Isn't that the same thing as, "Whatever happens happens"?
Not exactly. Whatever happens, happens implies there is no control over the scenario. But as stated, we make decisions that may improve or undermine our situation. But reality will eventually lead us to that point where society attempts to minimize pitfalls while maximizing benefits. Otherwise, our societies would have collapsed a long time ago.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 484 by Percy, posted 02-08-2019 5:17 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 486 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 7:57 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 487 of 887 (848570)
02-10-2019 11:04 AM
Reply to: Message 486 by Percy
02-10-2019 7:57 AM


Re: Another Referendum
Since we know from hindsight that free trade and open borders are better than the alternatives, we therefore have the foresight to know that abandoning them is bad. And we also know from hindsight and are therefore forewarned (to return to the example upon which you did not comment) that peace is better than war, and that a world where WWI and WWII had never happened would leave us a different Europe but an undoubtedly better Europe, not to mention a better Middle East with no Israel, at least not as we know it today. These cannot be dismissed with, "We cannot know for sure what would have happened." Ruin, devastation and death on an unthinkable scale are always worse.
The inability of accurately predicting what the world would look like or how Europe would currently look is precisely the point as to why foresight isn't an accurate predictor. You can find many individuals who indicate that free trade isn't all its cracked up to be. That it is undermined by specific protectionist measures utilized by various countries.
Peace is better than war, but the decisions leading to war are not always well thought out. As mentioned, the British sought peace at all costs in the lead up to WWII. And the end result was having to deal with a far more dire scenario with a more robust and rearmed Germany. So one can state that the decision to seek peace at all costs in that situation undermined the long term stability of Europe.
Regarding the Middle East, they have been in a civil war for our a thousand years. Shia versus Sunni is not a modern phenomenon any more than Protestant and Catholic. So there are no guarantees one way or the other how the Middle East would have turned out. Had WWI and WWII not occurred, the world's thirst for oil would still persist. And various powerful nations would still be vying for control over the region regardless.
"The universe unfolds as it should" implies a plan, not control, and it doesn't even really imply a plan since it's just looking backward and saying, "Well I guess that's the way it was supposed to happen" without having any idea if that is the case or not. Death and pestilence and slavery and suffering and wars are not the universe generally unfolding as it should.
What I am implying is no plan, but the tendency for things to sort themselves out because it is in the inherent best interest of society and the species that situations get resolved and that the best of breed solution comes to the forefront. It's essential societal evolution. As with natural selection, mutations occur. But the bad ones weed themselves out while the good ones persist because it allows the organism to survive and thrive. But it isn't always as obvious as one might think with regards to which mutations will benefit. And the same can be said with societal evolution. Despite predilections one way or the other, circumstances, some of which are unpredictable, may result in outcomes that are far worse even when one was approaching the problem with the best of intentions.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 486 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 7:57 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 488 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 12:51 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 489 of 887 (848585)
02-11-2019 9:20 AM
Reply to: Message 488 by Percy
02-10-2019 12:51 PM


Re: Another Referendum
Sure, things "sorted themselves out" I suppose, if that's what you want to call it, but that doesn't make WWI and WWII good things. And we knew that going in.
And that is ultimately the point I am making. That in the end, human resilience triumphed in the face of adversary. That's the only point I was making with the "universe unfolds as it should" statement. Which ironically, wasn't meant to offend in any way. I was attempting to provide reassurance to those in the UK and Europe.
Pertaining to 'war bad, peace good'. Sure. I can state that is likely accurate. But to avoid derailing the Brexit thread, the notion that Brexit will 'for sure' be bad might not be as cut and dry. Indicators seem to lean towards that notion. But as we know, metrics and predictors are not always foolproof. Many indicators showed that the UK would enter a recession if Leave won. That didn't happen. Not to say it won't happen.
Ultimately, since I would like to keep this thread on topic, maybe you can state what exactly you feel would be the appropriate next steps for the UK to take?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 488 by Percy, posted 02-10-2019 12:51 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 490 by Percy, posted 02-11-2019 10:11 AM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 492 by Diomedes, posted 02-12-2019 11:50 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 492 of 887 (848634)
02-12-2019 11:50 AM
Reply to: Message 489 by Diomedes
02-11-2019 9:20 AM


May's Negotiations - The Latest
quote:
Theresa May has promised MPs a final, decisive vote on her Brexit deal with the EU - but not until she has secured changes to the Irish backstop clause.
The PM said she needed "some time" to get the changes she believes MPs want.
She promised to update MPs again on 26 February and, if she had not got a new deal by then, to give them a say on the next steps in non-binding votes.
Jeremy Corbyn accused her of "running down the clock" in an effort to "blackmail" MPs into backing her deal.
Brexit: Theresa May promises meaningful vote after more talks with EU - BBC News
The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney is definitely voicing the fact that this continued delaying of a Brexit resolution is increasing the uncertainty from an economic perspective.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 489 by Diomedes, posted 02-11-2019 9:20 AM Diomedes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 494 by Diomedes, posted 02-25-2019 9:38 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 494 of 887 (849115)
02-25-2019 9:38 AM
Reply to: Message 492 by Diomedes
02-12-2019 11:50 AM


Brexit Deal Vote - No later than March 12th
quote:
MPs will be able to have a fresh vote on the Brexit deal by 12 March, Prime Minister Theresa May has said.
Speaking as she travelled to an EU-Arab League summit in Egypt, Mrs May ruled out holding another so-called "meaningful vote" this week.
But she said "positive" talks with the EU were "still ongoing" and leaving on 29 March was "within our grasp".
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused the prime minister of "recklessly running down the clock".
Brexit: MPs to have vote by 12 March, says May - BBC News
That is cutting things awfully close. I am still not convinced that her deal will survive the second vote. Having the vote that close to the wire is dangerous. My guess is May probably believes that even if it fails again, which is likely, she may just request an extension to the Article 50 deadline. The EU will likely grant that. But even so, I don't see how that will help. She will continue to push her deal and likely run down the clock a second time. An extension wouldn't give time for elections or a second referendum anyway.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 492 by Diomedes, posted 02-12-2019 11:50 AM Diomedes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 495 by Diomedes, posted 03-12-2019 10:08 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 495 of 887 (849507)
03-12-2019 10:08 AM
Reply to: Message 494 by Diomedes
02-25-2019 9:38 AM


Re: Brexit Deal Vote - The Latest
Debates have begun on the updated changes to May's withdrawal agreement. She apparently did get some 'legally binding changes'. But it appears the legal risk is still unchanged.
quote:
Brexit: Key group rejects Theresa May's revised deal
A key group of Brexiteer Tory MPs say they will be voting against Theresa May's Brexit deal in the Commons later.
The European Research Group say they are not convinced by legal assurances secured by the PM in 11th hour talks with EU officials.
Mrs May had hoped the group, which helped vote down her deal in January, would change their minds.
It comes after the attorney general said the risk of being tied to the EU after Brexit "remains unchanged".
But, Geoffrey Cox added, the new assurances secured by the PM did "reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily detained" in the Irish backstop if talks on the two sides future relationship broke down due to "bad faith" by the EU.
He defined "bad faith" as a "pattern of refusing to accept reasonable proposals" on the Irish backstop.
Brexit: May in final push to convince MPs to back deal - BBC News
So as it stands, things are not looking good for the vote on the deal. Appears it is headed to be defeated again.
Next step will be the vote on a No Deal Brexit, scheduled for tomorrow if things remain unchanged. That will likely also be rejected since the majority of MPs don't want No Deal.
Which leaves things in a quagmire at that stage. The consensus is that the British government will then request an extension to the Article 50 deadline. I am not sure how long that extension might be, but it appears the numbers being floated around are 3-6 months. Anything longer and it will intersect with European Parliamentary elections. And the EU doesn't want the UK to still be a member and cast a vote on those elections if they are planning on leaving anyway.
Should be an interesting few days.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 494 by Diomedes, posted 02-25-2019 9:38 AM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 496 by PaulK, posted 03-12-2019 1:20 PM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 497 by Tangle, posted 03-12-2019 1:26 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 498 of 887 (849510)
03-12-2019 2:06 PM
Reply to: Message 497 by Tangle
03-12-2019 1:26 PM


Re: Brexit Deal Vote - The Latest
Nobody's saying it yet but the only alternative is a delay, but that requires a vote in the EU to allow it. If they so no, we will drop out of the EU on 29th March anyway. The only way of stopping that would be another referendum. Huzzah!
Alas, with the time remaining, there isn't any recourse to pursue another referendum. I think at a minimum, they require at least 10 weeks of lead time. Considering how divisive another referendum might be, I can't imagine how difficult it would be for them to even agree on what the question might be. Considering their track record to date is not even agreeing on what Brexit means.
I would be surprised if the EU didn't grant an extension. The real question is how long. But with the EU parliamentary elections happening this year, as mentioned, I don't think they want the UK to still be a member and contribute to the election process if they plan on exiting.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 497 by Tangle, posted 03-12-2019 1:26 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 499 by Tangle, posted 03-12-2019 2:37 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 500 of 887 (849512)
03-12-2019 2:46 PM
Reply to: Message 499 by Tangle
03-12-2019 2:37 PM


Re: Brexit Deal Vote - The Latest

This message is a reply to:
 Message 499 by Tangle, posted 03-12-2019 2:37 PM Tangle has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 501 by PaulK, posted 03-12-2019 3:39 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 502 of 887 (849514)
03-12-2019 5:10 PM
Reply to: Message 501 by PaulK
03-12-2019 3:39 PM


Re: Brexit Deal Vote - The Latest
And May’s deal goes down in flames. Defeated by “only” 149 votes this time.
Tomorrow they vote on No Deal.
So the buggers muddle just muddles on.....
Should be an interesting week.

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 Message 501 by PaulK, posted 03-12-2019 3:39 PM PaulK has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 504 of 887 (849535)
03-13-2019 4:09 PM
Reply to: Message 503 by caffeine
03-13-2019 3:57 PM


Re: Brexit Deal Vote - The Latest
And there we have it, Parliament just voted for.... well, nothing. Since the vote on no deal creates no legally binding consequences.
I'm actually blown away by how close that vote was: 312 to 308. A spread of only four votes. So on the surface, it actually appears as though more MPs are in favor of No Deal versus May's deal.
So now the only remaining options are:
- Request an extension of Article 50; this has to be ratified by the EU
- The UK withdraws its withdrawal request, something it can apparently do unilaterally
- By some miracle, May's deal is tweaked and passes in the next two weeks; highly dubious
I guess there is also a fourth option: the UK re-militarizes, invades Europe, and then restores the British Empire to its former glory. I bet Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg would like that one.

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 Message 503 by caffeine, posted 03-13-2019 3:57 PM caffeine has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 505 by PaulK, posted 03-13-2019 4:30 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 506 of 887 (849537)
03-13-2019 4:36 PM
Reply to: Message 505 by PaulK
03-13-2019 4:30 PM


Re: Brexit Deal Vote - The Latest
That was the vote on the Spelman amendment insisting on a deal.
There was a majority of 43 for the actual motion.
And a much bigger majority against the No Deal Malthouse “compromise”.
My bad. Actually, when I first read it on BBC News, it had the 312 to 308 numbers in bold. I am wondering if somebody referenced the wrong vote in the article and have since amended it.
Nonetheless, I stand corrected.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 505 by PaulK, posted 03-13-2019 4:30 PM PaulK has replied

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 Message 507 by PaulK, posted 03-13-2019 4:44 PM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 508 by Diomedes, posted 03-14-2019 2:41 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 508 of 887 (849558)
03-14-2019 2:41 PM
Reply to: Message 506 by Diomedes
03-13-2019 4:36 PM


MPs vote for extension of Article 50
quote:
UK MPs have voted by 412 to 202 for Prime Minister Theresa May to ask the EU for a delay to Brexit.
It means the UK may not now leave on 29 March as previously planned.
Mrs May says Brexit could be delayed by three months, to 30 June, if MPs back her withdrawal deal in a vote next week.
If they reject her deal again then she says she will seek a longer extension - but any delay has to be agreed by the 27 other EU member states.
Interestingly, Donald Tusk on the EU side is going to propose that the EU offer a long delay. Upwards of a year. If that occurs, that opens up a whole slew of possibilities including a general election, negotiation of a new deal or even another referendum.
Clearly, the drama is far from over.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 506 by Diomedes, posted 03-13-2019 4:36 PM Diomedes has not replied

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 Message 509 by PaulK, posted 03-14-2019 3:52 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 510 of 887 (849698)
03-18-2019 1:10 PM
Reply to: Message 509 by PaulK
03-14-2019 3:52 PM


Bercow: Third Brexit vote must be different
quote:
John Bercow has ruled out another vote on the government's previously rejected Brexit agreement if the motion remains "substantially the same".
He told the Commons that parliamentary conventions dating back to 1604 meant MPs could not be asked to vote on precisely the same subject twice.
MPs rejected Theresa May's Brexit deal with the EU by 149 votes last week.
Mr Bercow's ruling came as the government considers a third attempt to get the deal through Parliament.
He said the second vote on the prime minister's deal last week was "in order" but any further votes must pass this "test" in order to be allowed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47614074
That rules out another vote on May's deal in the short term.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 509 by PaulK, posted 03-14-2019 3:52 PM PaulK has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 515 of 887 (849709)
03-18-2019 5:33 PM
Reply to: Message 511 by AZPaul3
03-18-2019 4:29 PM


The removal of nipples from page 3 was grounds for a beheading in an of itself in my opinion.
That notwithstanding, the British government is having an identity crisis which is part of the problem. They have been grumbling about leaving the EU for decades now and even some of the Labour party members who are touting their Remain credentials quietly (or sometimes vocally) have supported the idea of leaving the EU. Jeremy Corbin is guilty of this.
Incidentally, something just dawned on me: Bercow may have just unwittingly ensured a No Deal outcome. Prior to his decision, May's Deal and No Deal were the only remaining options. Now they are going to make a request for an extension of Article 50, but there is no guarantee that the extension will be granted. As much as there is Brexit fatigue in the UK, it also exists on the EU side as well. Many are likely fed up with the whole mess in the Eurozone and all it takes is one detractor and the extension is denied.
The EU parliament has been listening to that blowhard Nigel Farage for some time now and they might just decide they would rather kick his arse out. And if the extension to Article 50 is rejected, with Bercow's decision on no additional votes for May's Deal, than the default option is No Deal.
Not sure if the Speaker could potentially overrule himself to allow May's Deal to be brought back to a vote. He did say he would consider it if it contained 'meaningful changes'. I guess an option would be to just adjust the font of the draft deal and present it again. Not exactly in the spirit of meaningful changes. But for politics, that may be sufficient.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 511 by AZPaul3, posted 03-18-2019 4:29 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 517 by AZPaul3, posted 03-18-2019 6:06 PM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 520 by Diomedes, posted 03-20-2019 1:05 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
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