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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: EU says short delay is possible if MPs back deal - BBC News Wow. I was not expecting that. If that EU position holds, that pretty much leaves only May's Deal or No Deal as the only remaining options. The EU may have just handed May a win.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
PaulK writes: It’s actually quite a clever response as May was only going to use the extension to try to get her deal through anyway. That stops her doing that without refusing an extension.If May had got what she wanted then the same situation would still have arisen only a few months later. But with a load of complications because of the European Parliamentary elections. I was honestly thinking that the EU would reject a short extension in favor of pushing for a longer extension since that would open up other possibilities, including a general election or another referendum. Donald Tusk a few days back seemed to be pushing for this. My guess is the other EU representatives likely said they are sick of Brexit and want the problem to go away. So with that, they pretty much just made the decision for the UK. A 'No Deal' I guess is still possible, but my suspicion is that most who voted against May's Deal will likely now be terrified at the prospect of exiting without a deal. So they will switch their votes. Of course, Bercow now has to allow another meaningful vote on May's Deal. Even though he stipulated he won't do that unless it contains some meaningful differences. The EU may opt to add some other 'assurances' to the existing deal. I believe Tusk is working on that. So that may be enough to warrant a third vote.
ringo writes: Is James Clavell still alive? He should write a book about this. Hey, this might work as a good book cover:
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
I disagree that Bercow has to allow another vote on May’s deal unless she makes changes or Parliament votes to do it. Tusk’s comments don’t change anything there. It’s been voted on twice, heavily defeated both times and it’s not looking very hopeful even now. Indeed. It will be quite the quagmire to sort this out from a procedure perspective. But I would be shocked if No Deal became the outcome merely due to Bercow's stance on allowing another vote on the existing deal. I still suspect that he will end up allowing another meaningful vote despite his previous stance. But as you stated, there is still no guarantee that May's Deal will pass. The strident Brexiteers will likely continue to vote against it and considering how stubborn some politicians can be, there is always the possibility others may do the same. At which point, a No Deal shitstorm ensues. We shall see.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
As I was listening to the EU leaders speak and also doing some more reading, this situation may be far from over.
The current status is that the EU has said that if May's Deal is agreed to, they will have an extension up to May 22nd, 2019. However, if they reject May's Deal, the date will be up to April 12th, 2019 only. What is interesting is the second date actually leaves the possibility for more options. What Tusk and Juncker have stated is that at that point, the UK needs to state their intentions and provide some plan. Which could include: - Revoking Article 50- Calling a general election - Calling for another referendum - Having a softer stance on Brexit and be willing to negotiate a new deal So there is still a strong possibility this situation is far from over. If the UK says they want a longer extension to include possibilities for the other options like another referendum, than it is highly likely they may get something like a one year extension. I believe the intention now is that May's Deal will be brought forward for another vote next week, just before the March 29th deadline. I think May is now trying to get some other reassurances from the EU on the verbiage in the deal, specifically the backstop. That may be enough differences for Bercow to allow the vote to proceed. So we shall see. On a sidebar, British politics is WAAAAAY more interesting than American politics. I've watched CSPAN many times and it is boring as shit.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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Phat, in case you are interested, this video has a good summary of where things are in the Brexit process and what the likely next steps might be:
That channel also has lots of videos that explain how things have progressed since the Brexit vote in case you want to get up to speed on how things transpired. @Tangle: on a side-bar, the author of the above video used the word 'omni-shambles' in the dialog. I got a chuckle out of that.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
So Tangle, what's the British slang we need to now use in light of recent developments?
I believe so far, we have gone through: - Quagmire- Buggers muddle - Omni-shambles - Shitstorm - Clusterfuck I believe PaulK has proposed 'FUBAR' (Fucked Up Beyond All Recognition). Makes sense to me, but curious if there is another British term that might sum things up better. And 'Bollocks' isn't going to cut it.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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quote: Brexit: MPs asked to vote on withdrawal agreement only - BBC News So if I am reading that right, they are essentially partitioning May's Deal into component pieces and voting on those. As a stop gap to get the extra extension time as dictated by the EU. Will the EU even consider that valid? It seems like its a way to get May's Deal to a house vote to circumvent Bercow's edict. However, its not really a vote on the whole deal. This is honestly starting to remind me of a Monty Python skit.....
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
And for the hat trick, May's Deal (or at least part of it) has been defeated for a third time.
quote: Brexit: MPs reject May's EU withdrawal agreement - BBC News So now the stage is set for more indicative votes come Monday. The 'official' deadline is now April 12th, since the May 22nd extension date was only valid if May's Deal was approved.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit votes: MPs fail to back proposals again - BBC News Well, that's progress of a sorts. I guess. On the upside, at least there are a few options that are close to gaining some majority.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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Haven't heard of this UK comedian before, but he is quite funny. A good rant.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: PM asks Corbyn to help break deadlock - BBC News It looks like May might have finally caved to the Customs Union. That option had the strongest support among indicative votes. So maybe she realizes that is the only way forward. It is annoying the strident Brexiteers. But since it has the best chance of solving the Irish border problem, if she can get the moderate conservatives, Labour and the DUP to jump on board, that may be enough to get her plan across the finish line.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: UK asks EU for further extension until 30 June - BBC News Not sure how this will play out. Donald Tusk is apparently urging for a longer extension with a provision to leave earlier if needed. It seems to me that May is still playing the same game: trying to run down the clock to the point where her deal is the only option left. Interestingly, there will also be no more indicative votes on alternatives for Brexit. They voted on whether they should continue doing indicative votes and it ended with a tie in parliament: 310-310. The speaker then broke the tie and voted with the noes. So as it stands, May is now meeting with Corbyn to see if they can hash out some compromise to her deal, which likely means having a customs union as part of the solution. This more or less solves the Irish border problem and would negate the need for the backstop. Hardline Brexiteers obviously don't like it because it keeps the UK too closely aligned with the EU. But it appears to be the only way forward.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: UK and EU agree delay to 31 October - BBC News I wonder if there is any symbolism in the fact that the new deadline is Halloween.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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My favorite line:"May's been flip flopping more than a dying trout; which for her is actually quite a flattering visual comparison."
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Labour-Tory Brexit talks end without deal - BBC News Can't say I am surprised. But it is still unfortunate. Next steps should be interesting. And on a side note, apparently Theresa May indicated that if she loses the next Brexit plan vote, she has promised to set a timetable for her successor. Interesting times.
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