Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?

quote:

---

Maybe, when drafting the Lisbon treaty, someone should have put some thought into how a country leaves the EU; rather than just clarifying a legal process allowing it to happen.

---

This is a separate point but the Irish border is a very special case - and May did commit to keeping it open. If Greece had pulled out I can’t imagine a similar problem.

Gibraltar doesn’t have a long fiddly land border with the EU, nor a history of violent unrest with a substantial minority wanting reunification with Spain.In short it’s much easier for the EU not to make waves about Gibraltar. I can’t say that will stay the case if May reopens negotiations and annoys the negotiators enough. At the least the Spanish might see it as an opportunity.As I have mentioned earlier I saw this coming over a year ago. There is no obvious fix. The BBC has a story. At best a fix would take years to implement, if it worked.May got the best deal the EU was prepared to offer, and it wasn’t good enough for the ERG.

The agreements with the EU were basically the sort of stuff expected since around the time of the last vote. So it’s mostly surprising that as many people have switched as have. May’s strategy of running down the clock seems to have partially worked - but it’s unlikely that it will save her deal.

And May’s deal goes down in flames. Defeated by “only” 149 votes this time.Tomorrow they vote on No Deal.

That was the vote on the Spelman amendment insisting on a deal.There was a majority of 43 for the actual motion.And a much bigger majority against the No Deal Malthouse “compromise”.

The Spelman Amendment going through was the first vote and very important. The government tried to kill it and then tried to kill their own motion because of it. But the motion going through with the amendment was the really 8mportant thing.

A pity that all the amendments were voted down or withdrawn. The Benn amendment failing by only 2 votes was especially sad.

It’s actually quite a clever response as May was only going to use the extension to try to get her deal through anyway. That stops her doing that without refusing an extension.If May had got what she wanted then the same situation would still have arisen only a few months later. But with a load of complications because of the European Parliamentary elections.

I disagree that Bercow has to allow another vote on May’s deal unless she makes changes or Parliament votes to do it. Tusk’s comments don’t change anything there. It’s been voted on twice, heavily defeated both times and it’s not looking very hopeful even now.

Nobody knows what direction Brexit is going in.May wants MPs to back her deal but they pretty much all hate her - even the Tories. (Many of whom are regretting the failed attempt to oust her last year, because the Party rules demand at least 12 months between attempts. If they tried it now, she’d be gone).If a deal doesn’t pass the default is to exit with now deal, presumably on 12 April.But Parliament voted against No Deal, so they may try to get a long extension or even cancel Brexit altogether. But they probably won’t get an extension unless they have a sensible plan (the EU generously allowed this extension even though May doesn’t have a sensible plan, but I don’t think that’s likely to extend much further),

I don’t see any problem in extending the date until April 12. The EU has agreed it, Parliament don’t want a crash-out and a crash-out with the extension there for the taking would make them look even more hopelessly incompetent than they already do.

In this case the left-right divide isn’t that important. There are hard-line Brexiteers in both Labour and Conservative parties. There are Remainers on both sides, too, although most are going along with Brexit - at least for now.Then we have the smaller parties, notably the Democratic Unionist Party (a party from Northern Ireland, allied with the government but pretty hardline on this - and the politics of Northern Ireland are a whole extra problem). The Scottish Nationalist Party are not pro-Brexit at all and are likely to use it to bolster support for an independent Scotland - especially on a crash-out. The Liberal Democrats are anti-Brexit but have few seats - partly because the electorate decided to punish them for allying with the Conservatives (and because that alliance did not go well). The Independent Group is not a party but includes recent defectors from Labour (most) and the Conservatives and want a soft Brexit (or maybe none). I don’t think anyone else counts for much but there are others.

quote:

---

Some of these MPs need drowning in the Thames.

---

That’s a horrid idea. It took a lot of effort to clean up the river.

Keir Starmer - Labour’s Brexit guy - reports that the Government ministers aren’t offering any changes. Which pretty much sinks any chance of a cross party deal.

Given the First Past the Post system it depends on the distribution of votes. Labour and the Tories will almost certainly get more seats than the numbers suggest.I think those figures would give Labour more seats than the Tories, but I don’t think they’d get a majority. Not that they would stop Brexit if they did, unless something changes. Labour’s policy is pro-Brexit and they are reluctant to even go with a second referendum.I don’t think that a General Election is very likely at the moment, but everything is so up in the air it is hard to rule anything out.