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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||
PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
Lib Dem isn’t the only Remain option. There are also the Green Party and Change UK (formerly The Independent Group). Regional parties may also be Remain - the SNP being a big one.
The electoral system for the European Parliament is different, too. Bigger constituencies, electing multiple representatives, so voting for the smaller parties may not be a wasted vote.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
Change UK are in a bit of a mess, but the SNP in Scotland in the Greens elsewhere already have MEPs. And any of them would do for a protest vote against Brexit.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
The European elections have large constituencies electing multiple MEPs from party lists. Scotland for instance is one constituency with 6 MEPs. It’s called the D’Hondt method.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
quote: I expect her to hang on longer. But when she goes nobody knows what will happen. A strongly pro-Brexit replacement might be able to force no-deal, but we don’t know who the replacement will be. The latest news here is that publication of the Withdrawal Bill - promised for Friday - has been delayed. She will probably go in June - there’s a threat to change the rules to allow a new challenge if she doesn’t step down by the 10th.
quote: I think that has much to do with the poor quality of politicians on your side of the Atlantic. May made a lot of mistakes, and to a large degree is the author of her own misfortune. Rushing into invoking Article 50. Calling a General Election which reduced her Parliamentary majority. Negotiating a deal which a large part of her own party wouldn’t accept. Refusing to make adequate concessions to either side. Brexit is a mess. And largely it is a mess because the pro-Brexit side didn’t really agree on what they wanted and didn’t really account for the issues - especially the Irish border.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
quote: And again her unwillingness to compromise sabotaged her negotiations with Labour. If she really wanted to deliver Brexit she had to come up with something that would satisfy enough MPs. And she never did.
quote: I don’t think that the odds of becoming leader are greatly in his favour. But No Deal possibly stands a better chance than May’s deal at this point. It’s the only possible option that the ERG would accept. Rewriting the deal to remove the backstop is out, as is sabotaging it in the Political Declaration. And it is possible to weasel into it since it is currently the default.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
Departure date is 7th June.
So let’s see if the Tories can mess themselves up even worse this time.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
quote: Now ? No Brexit is still possible. If by some chance we get a Labour Prime Minister or a Tory favouring a soft Brexit that might be possible, too. The Tories might well split if it came to either, though.
quote: Quite possibly - if May had made more concessions to Labour in the recent talks that might even have done it.
quote: May was going for a hard Brexit. The problem was that the Irish Backstop threatened to turn it soft. Without that it would have passed. The EU would be prepared to make changes to the Political Agreement favouring treaties, but it would depend on the government being able to push those through Parliament.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
quote: The usual explanation is that it would have split the Tory party. But she hasn’t shown a lot of flexibility on the matter either,
quote: They wouldn’t have to. The transitional phase in May’s agreement keeps things stable and everything else can be negotiated in that period.
quote: May was never willing to offer a soft Brexit, so I’d say that the odds have marginally improved. Mainly because the chance of a General Election has gone up and Corbyn would go that way.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
As I understand it, the Tories already have a deal in place with the DUP which barely gives them a majority. The other parties wouldn’t even deal with May and Boris is not likely to be more popular.
That’s enough to try to form a Government - but if even a few Tory MPs are sufficiently unhappy (and they really might be) a quick vote of No Confidence could pass. It is very unusual but that is where Brexit has got us.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
To be fair (to us) it’s more like the Primaries than a full election. In fact it’s less open than the Primaries at this stage. Only Tory MPs get to vote.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
That belonged in the humour thread.
But I’m sure that Boris will be just as consistent as he is honest.
BBC
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
Rory Stewart actually managed to lose votes, and was eliminated. Disappointing, since he seemed the least awful of the bunch and the only one with any realistic idea of what to do about Brexit.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
quote: The Conservative party went nuts over Brexit, won’t listen to reason and the leading alternative is Boris Johnson.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
Because her own Party was about to kick her out. They would have changed the rule that limited challenges to their leader just so they could do it, which wouldn’t have been good for the Party either. So she jumped first, because anything else was worse.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17815 Joined: Member Rating: 2.1 |
I think Boris’s plan is No Deal and blame the EU.
He hasn’t got time for big changes to the deal, and the backstop is staying. An Ireland-only backstop might fly with some but the DUP will not wear it, and Boris needs them to stay in power. So what other alternative does he have?
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