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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 520 of 887 (849760)
03-20-2019 1:05 PM
Reply to: Message 515 by Diomedes
03-18-2019 5:33 PM


EU will only agree to delay if current deal approved
quote:
The EU will only agree to delay Brexit if the UK Parliament approves the current withdrawal agreement next week, Theresa May has been told.
EU Council President Donald Tusk said a short extension, requested by the prime minister on Wednesday, was possible.
Mrs May has written to Mr Tusk requesting a Brexit delay to 30 June, saying she needed more time to get her withdrawal deal passed by MPs.
The UK is due to leave the EU next Friday, on 29 March.
Mr Tusk said he believed all 27 other EU members, who must sign off on the extension, would agree but it depended on a "positive" vote in the House of Commons.
Brexit: EU says short delay is possible if MPs back deal - BBC News
Wow. I was not expecting that. If that EU position holds, that pretty much leaves only May's Deal or No Deal as the only remaining options. The EU may have just handed May a win.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 515 by Diomedes, posted 03-18-2019 5:33 PM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 521 by PaulK, posted 03-20-2019 1:13 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 523 of 887 (849765)
03-20-2019 2:34 PM
Reply to: Message 521 by PaulK
03-20-2019 1:13 PM


Re: EU will only agree to delay if current deal approved
PaulK writes:
It’s actually quite a clever response as May was only going to use the extension to try to get her deal through anyway. That stops her doing that without refusing an extension.
If May had got what she wanted then the same situation would still have arisen only a few months later. But with a load of complications because of the European Parliamentary elections.
I was honestly thinking that the EU would reject a short extension in favor of pushing for a longer extension since that would open up other possibilities, including a general election or another referendum. Donald Tusk a few days back seemed to be pushing for this. My guess is the other EU representatives likely said they are sick of Brexit and want the problem to go away. So with that, they pretty much just made the decision for the UK. A 'No Deal' I guess is still possible, but my suspicion is that most who voted against May's Deal will likely now be terrified at the prospect of exiting without a deal. So they will switch their votes.
Of course, Bercow now has to allow another meaningful vote on May's Deal. Even though he stipulated he won't do that unless it contains some meaningful differences.
The EU may opt to add some other 'assurances' to the existing deal. I believe Tusk is working on that. So that may be enough to warrant a third vote.
ringo writes:
Is James Clavell still alive? He should write a book about this.
Hey, this might work as a good book cover:

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 Message 521 by PaulK, posted 03-20-2019 1:13 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 524 by PaulK, posted 03-20-2019 3:01 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 525 of 887 (849767)
03-20-2019 4:50 PM
Reply to: Message 524 by PaulK
03-20-2019 3:01 PM


Re: EU will only agree to delay if current deal approved
I disagree that Bercow has to allow another vote on May’s deal unless she makes changes or Parliament votes to do it. Tusk’s comments don’t change anything there. It’s been voted on twice, heavily defeated both times and it’s not looking very hopeful even now.
Indeed. It will be quite the quagmire to sort this out from a procedure perspective. But I would be shocked if No Deal became the outcome merely due to Bercow's stance on allowing another vote on the existing deal. I still suspect that he will end up allowing another meaningful vote despite his previous stance. But as you stated, there is still no guarantee that May's Deal will pass. The strident Brexiteers will likely continue to vote against it and considering how stubborn some politicians can be, there is always the possibility others may do the same. At which point, a No Deal shitstorm ensues. We shall see.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 527 of 887 (849811)
03-22-2019 9:37 AM
Reply to: Message 526 by AZPaul3
03-20-2019 8:47 PM


Next steps may actually be more complex
As I was listening to the EU leaders speak and also doing some more reading, this situation may be far from over.
The current status is that the EU has said that if May's Deal is agreed to, they will have an extension up to May 22nd, 2019. However, if they reject May's Deal, the date will be up to April 12th, 2019 only.
What is interesting is the second date actually leaves the possibility for more options. What Tusk and Juncker have stated is that at that point, the UK needs to state their intentions and provide some plan. Which could include:
- Revoking Article 50
- Calling a general election
- Calling for another referendum
- Having a softer stance on Brexit and be willing to negotiate a new deal
So there is still a strong possibility this situation is far from over. If the UK says they want a longer extension to include possibilities for the other options like another referendum, than it is highly likely they may get something like a one year extension.
I believe the intention now is that May's Deal will be brought forward for another vote next week, just before the March 29th deadline. I think May is now trying to get some other reassurances from the EU on the verbiage in the deal, specifically the backstop. That may be enough differences for Bercow to allow the vote to proceed. So we shall see.
On a sidebar, British politics is WAAAAAY more interesting than American politics. I've watched CSPAN many times and it is boring as shit.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 526 by AZPaul3, posted 03-20-2019 8:47 PM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

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 Message 528 by Tangle, posted 03-22-2019 10:27 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 539 of 887 (849902)
03-25-2019 9:25 AM
Reply to: Message 537 by Phat
03-24-2019 9:38 AM


Re: Moving Quietly Towards The Exit (Brexit)
Phat, in case you are interested, this video has a good summary of where things are in the Brexit process and what the likely next steps might be:
That channel also has lots of videos that explain how things have progressed since the Brexit vote in case you want to get up to speed on how things transpired.
@Tangle: on a side-bar, the author of the above video used the word 'omni-shambles' in the dialog. I got a chuckle out of that.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 537 by Phat, posted 03-24-2019 9:38 AM Phat has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 545 of 887 (849994)
03-28-2019 9:29 AM
Reply to: Message 542 by Tangle
03-28-2019 6:05 AM


Re: Finally some clarity!
So Tangle, what's the British slang we need to now use in light of recent developments?
I believe so far, we have gone through:
- Quagmire
- Buggers muddle
- Omni-shambles
- Shitstorm
- Clusterfuck
I believe PaulK has proposed 'FUBAR' (Fucked Up Beyond All Recognition). Makes sense to me, but curious if there is another British term that might sum things up better. And 'Bollocks' isn't going to cut it.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 542 by Tangle, posted 03-28-2019 6:05 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 550 of 887 (850029)
03-28-2019 4:13 PM


MPs asked to vote on withdrawal agreement only
quote:
MPs will be asked to vote again on Brexit on Friday but only on part of the deal negotiated with the EU.
They will vote on the withdrawal agreement on the Irish "backstop", divorce bill and citizens' rights.
But it will not amount to a third "meaningful vote" on the deal, as it will not include a vote on the UK's future relationship with the EU.
BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said Theresa May was essentially asking MPs to turn it into a game of two halves - just voting on the first part of the deal which sorts out the UK's departure and leaving the longer term part for the next few weeks.
Brexit: MPs asked to vote on withdrawal agreement only - BBC News
So if I am reading that right, they are essentially partitioning May's Deal into component pieces and voting on those. As a stop gap to get the extra extension time as dictated by the EU.
Will the EU even consider that valid? It seems like its a way to get May's Deal to a house vote to circumvent Bercow's edict. However, its not really a vote on the whole deal.
This is honestly starting to remind me of a Monty Python skit.....

Replies to this message:
 Message 552 by Diomedes, posted 03-29-2019 3:06 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 552 of 887 (850048)
03-29-2019 3:06 PM
Reply to: Message 550 by Diomedes
03-28-2019 4:13 PM


Re: MPs asked to vote on withdrawal agreement only
And for the hat trick, May's Deal (or at least part of it) has been defeated for a third time.
quote:
MPs have rejected Theresa May’s EU withdrawal agreement on the day the UK was due to leave the EU.
The government lost by 344 votes to 286, a margin of 58.
It means the UK has missed an EU deadline to delay Brexit to 22 May and leave with a deal.
The prime minister said the UK would have to find "an alternative way forward", which was "almost certain" to involve holding European elections.
Thousands of Leave supporters gathered outside Parliament to protest against the delay to Brexit, bringing traffic to a standstill.
Brexit: MPs reject May's EU withdrawal agreement - BBC News
So now the stage is set for more indicative votes come Monday. The 'official' deadline is now April 12th, since the May 22nd extension date was only valid if May's Deal was approved.

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 Message 550 by Diomedes, posted 03-28-2019 4:13 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 559 of 887 (850123)
04-01-2019 5:56 PM


All Brexit proposals fail - Again
quote:
MPs have again failed to agree on proposals for the next steps of Brexit.
The Commons voted on four motions for leaving the EU, including a customs union and a Norway-style arrangement - keeping the UK in the single market - but none gained a majority.
The votes were not legally binding, so the government would not have been forced to adopt the proposals.
Theresa May's plan that she negotiated with the EU has been rejected twice by historic margins in Parliament.
The withdrawal agreement section of her deal was voted down again by MPs on Friday.
Mrs May now has until 12 April to either seek a longer extension from the EU to take a different course or decide to leave the EU without a deal.
Brexit votes: MPs fail to back proposals again - BBC News
Well, that's progress of a sorts. I guess. On the upside, at least there are a few options that are close to gaining some majority.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(2)
Message 564 of 887 (850166)
04-02-2019 12:25 PM


Jonathan Pie on Brexit
Haven't heard of this UK comedian before, but he is quite funny. A good rant.

Replies to this message:
 Message 577 by Theodoric, posted 04-11-2019 10:06 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 567 of 887 (850183)
04-02-2019 5:07 PM


Theresa May to ask EU for further extension
quote:
Theresa May will ask the EU for an extension to the Brexit deadline to "break the logjam" in Parliament.
The PM says she wants to meet Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to agree a plan on the future relationship with the EU.
But she insisted her withdrawal agreement - which was voted down last week - would remain part of the deal.
Mr Corbyn said he was "very happy" to meet Mrs May, and would ensure plans for a customs union and protection of workers' rights were on the table.
The cross-party talks offer has angered Tory Brexiteers, with Boris Johnson accusing ministers of "entrusting the final handling of Brexit to Labour".
The former foreign secretary said Brexit was "becoming soft to the point of disintegration" and he could never agree with staying in a customs union.
Brexit: PM asks Corbyn to help break deadlock - BBC News
It looks like May might have finally caved to the Customs Union. That option had the strongest support among indicative votes. So maybe she realizes that is the only way forward. It is annoying the strident Brexiteers. But since it has the best chance of solving the Irish border problem, if she can get the moderate conservatives, Labour and the DUP to jump on board, that may be enough to get her plan across the finish line.

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 573 of 887 (850278)
04-05-2019 9:45 AM


UK asks EU for another extension until June 30
quote:
Theresa May has written to the European Union to request a further delay to Brexit until 30 June.
The UK is currently due to leave the EU on 12 April and, as yet, no withdrawal deal has been approved by MPs.
The prime minister has proposed that if UK MPs approve a deal in time, the UK should be able to leave before European Parliamentary elections on 23 May.
But she said the UK would prepare to field candidates in those elections in case no agreement is reached.
It is up to the EU whether to grant an extension to Article 50, the legal process through which the UK is leaving the EU, after MPs repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement reached between the UK and the bloc.
Brexit: UK asks EU for further extension until 30 June - BBC News
Not sure how this will play out. Donald Tusk is apparently urging for a longer extension with a provision to leave earlier if needed. It seems to me that May is still playing the same game: trying to run down the clock to the point where her deal is the only option left.
Interestingly, there will also be no more indicative votes on alternatives for Brexit. They voted on whether they should continue doing indicative votes and it ended with a tie in parliament: 310-310. The speaker then broke the tie and voted with the noes.
So as it stands, May is now meeting with Corbyn to see if they can hash out some compromise to her deal, which likely means having a customs union as part of the solution. This more or less solves the Irish border problem and would negate the need for the backstop. Hardline Brexiteers obviously don't like it because it keeps the UK too closely aligned with the EU. But it appears to be the only way forward.

Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 576 of 887 (850616)
04-11-2019 9:01 AM


Brexit deadline moved to October 31st
quote:
European Union leaders have granted the UK a six-month extension to Brexit, after late-night talks in Brussels.
The new deadline - 31 October - averts the prospect of the UK having to leave the EU without a deal on Friday, as MPs are still deadlocked over a deal.
European Council President Donald Tusk said his "message to British friends" was "please do not waste this time".
Theresa May, who had wanted a shorter delay, said the UK would still aim to leave the EU as soon as possible.
The UK must now hold European elections in May, or leave on 1 June without a deal.
The prime minister will later make a statement on the Brussels summit to the House of Commons, while talks with the Labour Party, aimed at reaching consensus on how to handle Brexit, are set to continue.
Brexit: UK and EU agree delay to 31 October - BBC News
I wonder if there is any symbolism in the fact that the new deadline is Halloween.

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(3)
Message 578 of 887 (851467)
04-25-2019 9:09 AM
Reply to: Message 577 by Theodoric
04-11-2019 10:06 AM


Another Jonathan Pie rant on Brexit
My favorite line:
"May's been flip flopping more than a dying trout; which for her is actually quite a flattering visual comparison."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 577 by Theodoric, posted 04-11-2019 10:06 AM Theodoric has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 592 of 887 (852803)
05-17-2019 8:05 AM


Labour-Tory Brexit talks fail with no compromise
quote:
Talks between Labour and the government aimed at breaking the Brexit impasse have ended without an agreement.
Jeremy Corbyn said the discussions had "gone as far as they can", blaming what he called the government's "increasing weakness and instability".
Theresa May said the lack of a "common position" over a further referendum in Labour had made talks "difficult".
The PM said the government would now consider putting votes to MPs on Brexit options that may "command a majority".
Labour-Tory Brexit talks end without deal - BBC News
Can't say I am surprised. But it is still unfortunate. Next steps should be interesting.
And on a side note, apparently Theresa May indicated that if she loses the next Brexit plan vote, she has promised to set a timetable for her successor.
Interesting times.

Replies to this message:
 Message 593 by caffeine, posted 05-17-2019 8:11 AM Diomedes has replied
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