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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 594 of 887 (852806)
05-17-2019 9:03 AM
Reply to: Message 593 by caffeine
05-17-2019 8:11 AM


Re: Labour-Tory Brexit talks fail with no compromise
It's not contingent on winning or losing the vote - she just said after the vote, regardless of outcome.
I stand corrected. I skimmed the BBC article I read and didn't catch that.
On another note, Boris Johnson has stated he plans to run for PM:
quote:
Theresa May has promised to set a timetable for the election of her successor after the next Brexit vote in the first week of June.
The agreement follows a meeting between the prime minister and senior Tory MPs who are demanding a date for her departure from Downing Street.
If she loses the vote on her Brexit plan, already rejected three times, sources told the BBC she would resign.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has said he will run for leader once Mrs May goes.
Edited by Diomedes, : Fixed typo

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 597 of 887 (852827)
05-17-2019 2:43 PM
Reply to: Message 596 by Taq
05-17-2019 1:13 PM


Re: Labour-Tory Brexit talks fail with no compromise
I don't see anyway around another general vote on Brexit. It's one thing to vote for Brexit in the abstract, and a whole different thing to see the real ramifications of Brexit. Government incompetence is just the cherry on top.
Not sure how easily another vote can/would occur. It was proposed as part of the indicative votes, but was rejected. Along with everything else.
Timing once again will be the issue. To engineer another vote takes a minimum of 10 weeks to prepare. The vote on May's Deal will occur again in June and if it fails, which is likely, that will likely start the process of picking her successor. Which will eat up more time.
Now if Boris or Gove take the helm, I doubt they would push for another referendum. Boris seems hell bent on no deal, so my suspicion is he would just be all bravado and tell the EU that if they don't agree to a different deal, he will leave with no deal. Not sure if Gove would be that melodramatic. But the potential alternate leaders in the Conservative party don't exactly inspire confidence at this stage.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 600 of 887 (852852)
05-18-2019 10:49 AM
Reply to: Message 599 by caffeine
05-18-2019 9:40 AM


Re: Labour-Tory Brexit talks fail with no compromise
In order that this doesn't mean the country continues rudderless if no one can form a new government; Parliament can with a simple majority pass a vote of no confidence in whatever new government the Tories try to form - after this there's a two week grace period in which to try and form a government that can command majority support. If this fails Parliament will be dissolved and there will be an early general election.
The Sun has put together a list of the odds for the prospective successors to Theresa May, which can be found via the following link:
THE new UK Prime Minister will announced today, results are expected at 11.45 am. Rivals Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, are fighting to become the next Prime Minister — but who do the public
It does appear Boris has the current 'best' odds (at around 3:1). Gove is next at 7:1 followed by Jeremy Corbyn at 8:1.
So the UK's options appear to be Curly, Larry and Moe. Not necessarily in that order.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 604 of 887 (853207)
05-23-2019 12:24 PM
Reply to: Message 602 by PaulK
05-23-2019 11:11 AM


Re: What Now?
May made a lot of mistakes, and to a large degree is the author of her own misfortune. Rushing into invoking Article 50. Calling a General Election which reduced her Parliamentary majority. Negotiating a deal which a large part of her own party wouldn’t accept. Refusing to make adequate concessions to either side.
Brexit is a mess. And largely it is a mess because the pro-Brexit side didn’t really agree on what they wanted and didn’t really account for the issues - especially the Irish border.
Theresa May I think was guilty of some major overconfidence once she was chosen as PM. And she did seem to have a stubborn 'my way or the highway' approach to negotiating Brexit. Now that reality has set in, she is desperately trying to find some way across the finish line. But with so many of her MPs resigning their posts, including Andrea Leadsom quiting as Commons Leader, she basically now has no friends to speak of and no allies to rely on.
I think the bigger question is how will her replacement process pans out. It is pretty much given that her time is short. But the current alternative that seems to have the highest chance of filling the PM role in the interim is Boris Johnson. Now if May is accused of being too rigid in her negotiating style, what does that say about Boris who doesn't believe in ANY compromises and seems to be perfectly content to leaving without a deal.
I think the final nail in the coffin for May is going to be the results of the European parliamentary elections. Nigel Farage's Brexit party is expected to win big. And the Conservatives are currently polling way down. That will likely be the final impetus for May being forced out.

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 Message 602 by PaulK, posted 05-23-2019 11:11 AM PaulK has replied

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 606 of 887 (853211)
05-23-2019 1:46 PM
Reply to: Message 605 by PaulK
05-23-2019 12:40 PM


Re: What Now?
I don’t think that the odds of becoming leader are greatly in his favour. But No Deal possibly stands a better chance than May’s deal at this point. It’s the only possible option that the ERG would accept. Rewriting the deal to remove the backstop is out, as is sabotaging it in the Political Declaration. And it is possible to weasel into it since it is currently the default.
Interestingly, the futures markets now seem to be moving more towards a 'No Deal' scenario with their predictions. The Pound-Sterling is now at 1.26 to the US dollar, having been at 1.30 recently.
I am still keeping my fingers crossed that some alternate scenario will manifest. Brexit has thrown a lot of curve balls since the vote. There is still a possibility for a general election, although that would likely require another extension of Article 50 by the EU.
You know, when I started this Brexit thread almost three years ago, I never anticipated it would exist well into 2019. Interesting times we live in.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 610 of 887 (853259)
05-24-2019 8:07 AM
Reply to: Message 609 by Pressie
05-24-2019 5:28 AM


Re: Theresa May Resigns.
There really is no solution to that Brexit conundrum. I think a no-deal scenario is getting more realistic. That's going to open a lot of other cans (with another variety of ugly worms)!
This will definitely end up eating a lot of valuable time. Now the Torries have to go through a process to select a new PM. The new deadline for Brexit is now five months away. Of course, it is always possible that the EU will grant another extension. But my guess is they will only ratify that if it makes sense. Like the need to hold general elections or to hold another referendum.
Well, guess there are more shenanigans and volatility on the horizon.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 614 of 887 (853272)
05-24-2019 12:02 PM
Reply to: Message 613 by Percy
05-24-2019 10:14 AM


Re: Understanding Brexit
It says that in the end May was defeated by her own myopic single-minded pursuit of a single course at a time, never able to change paths until the current path ran into a hard dead end. At each stage of her journey she lost allies until finally she was left with no one.
That is a pretty decent summation. To be fair, she was also handed a shit sandwich and had to navigate the tenuous waters of the Conservative Party; which is very divided on its Brexit stance.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 620 of 887 (853296)
05-25-2019 11:38 AM
Reply to: Message 619 by PaulK
05-25-2019 12:50 AM


Re: Understanding Brexit
May was never willing to offer a soft Brexit, so I’d say that the odds have marginally improved. Mainly because the chance of a General Election has gone up and Corbyn would go that way.
Ultimately, a soft versus hard versus no Brexit will be predicated on who will be the next PM. If we get a Boris Johnson as PM, then any notion of a soft Brexit or no Brexit will likely be out the window. Ditto for Gove being PM.
The big issue I see now is that the Conservative back benchers have all been steaming with May and pointing to the conspiracy theory that since she was in favor of remain, that was why Brexit has turned into a buggers muddle. As the Brits like to say. I think it would have been a shit storm either way, but my guess is they will likely be pushing for a more hardline Brexit supporter who voted Leave. And that will increase the likelihood of a hard Brexit.
As you said, there is the possibility of a general election. I don't know the particulars of how that might come about. The Conservative party is still in control and I think they have to call one. But I believe there is a provision that if the appointed Prime Minister doesn't have the support of parliament, then an election has to be called. The Brits on this forum can correct me if I am wrong.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 622 of 887 (853324)
05-26-2019 10:29 AM
Reply to: Message 621 by Tangle
05-25-2019 12:41 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
Corbin has said that as soon as the new PM is in place he'll call a vote of no confidence. If that succeeds, then there's an election and the pooh really hits the fan.
Interesting. But I wonder how likely it is that a vote of no confidence would succeed in this case. Conservatives still have the majority unless the DUP break ranks. But I guess a lot of that will depend on who May's successor will be.
I happened to watch Dateline London on the BBC yesterday and they were actually pretty pessimistic about things working out at this stage. Most are in agreement that a No Deal is now the most likely scenario. Mainly because they assume that May's replacement will be more hard line and will likely use the next Brexit deadline as a bargaining point. So I guess we will see how things play out.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 636 of 887 (853403)
05-27-2019 10:31 AM
Reply to: Message 634 by caffeine
05-27-2019 5:20 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
If we need a narrative to describe the election, it should be one of fragmentation. The Eurosceptics increased their vote share, yes. But so did the Liberals and the Greens, at the expense of the two traditional main blocs.
I think that is a good summation. Another way to view it is essentially a repudiation of the establishment parties who many feel have been placating too long to big business and their own self interest.
From the UK perspective, the Brexit party obviously did very well. However, as stated, so did the other 'non-establishment' parties. It was ultimately the Conservatives and Labour that took the brunt of the frustration. As would be expected.
Looking at the EU elections wholesale, there is one area that I think is a cause for concern. And that is France. Marine La Pen's Nationally Rally party ended up on top versus Macron's Renaissance list. Now as other elections demonstrated, some of this is simply due to a backlash against the establishment. But the reason for concern is France has had numerous issues of late, with terrorist attacks and the Yellow Vest protests. And this looks like it could be setting the stage for the potential of a far right party taking a very prominent role in France. With France being an integral player in the EU, having a Euroskeptic party with a larger majority if not outright control of France could have massive ramifications for EU as a whole.
Italy also had a surge in its far-right party, although that was not unexpected. But between France and Italy, those are two very large economies that could use their sway in ways that could be detrimental to the EU in the long run.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 638 of 887 (853412)
05-27-2019 11:39 AM
Reply to: Message 637 by caffeine
05-27-2019 11:24 AM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
I think you're framing the French results all wrong. There was no surge for the far right Luke there was in Italy. My takeaway here is that, despite all the social unrest witnessed in France the last couple of years, despite the fact that Macron has historically low approval ratings, Le Pen's party got a lower share of the vote than in the last election. They barely got more votes than the party of a man who is possibly the world's least popular President.
Perhaps, but I would caution against any complacency. While La Pen did get a lower percentage on the whole, that is partially due to the larger turnout in the recent election. They also received half a million more votes than they did last time.
Ultimately, the main concern from my perspective is the fact that National Rally is the clear opposition as it stands. And depending on how the votes are distributed, the issue is that left leaning individuals will divide their votes across several parties while right leaning individuals could coalesce around La Pen. And that could put her party in the clear majority.
The Guardian has a good summary of the France election results:
EU vote confirms French far right as Macron's main opposition | European parliamentary elections 2019 | The Guardian
The following quote is the one I believe exemplifies why one shouldn't gloss over how things turned out in France:
quote:
Macron had defined the election campaign as an existential fight between Europe-friendly progressives and Eurosceptic far-right nationalists. His camp claimed he had boosted the turnout.
Some political observers, however, criticised the now common approach of French politicians who shout about the danger of Le Pen during an election campaign, then minimise the significance of the results when the far right does well.
Le Pen’s share of the vote was higher than in the first round of the French presidential election in 2017. Her party, led by the 23-year-old Jordan Bardella, made gains in the high-abstention banlieue suburbs around Paris and in new areas of Brittany and the south-west. Macron’s prime minister, Edouard Philippe, acknowledged: “When you come second, you can’t say you’ve won.” He said Le Pen was now a de facto opposition force.

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Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 643 of 887 (853506)
05-28-2019 9:01 AM
Reply to: Message 639 by caffeine
05-27-2019 12:06 PM


Re: Did the nationalists really "win" this E.U. election?
caffeine writes:
Don't get me wrong, I'm not blase about political developments in France - on the contrary I find it very concerning. But the issue as I see it is not that the right is rallying to Le Pen while the left fractures. The issue is that the left has collapsed as a serious political force, and the main divide now appears to be between the centre-right and the far-right.
That is ultimately the point I am getting across. With a fractured left, that ends up diluting the vote. As a result, it decreases the likelihood of a left majority and increases the likelihood of a right majority. Perhaps I am being melodramatic. But being that France is typically pretty far left, I find the results a cause for concern.
LamarkNewAge writes:
But the big questions:
Who knows what the voters for the two main parties think?
The conservatives have been pro E.U. and fairly pro immigration, but have been divided on both issues. The conservatives oppose "ever greater union" whatever that means.
Labour has been all over the board on the E.U. for as long as the E.U. existed.
I would probably say the conservatives have been a bit more bipolar with the whole Brexit situation. But Labour has not exactly been forthright in their stance either. From my perspective, it appears they turned the whole Brexit quagmire into a political opportunity and it backfired. Jeremy Corbyn also doesn't appear to be considered a very effective leader. I am wondering if there might be some machinations behind the scenes to look for his replacement.
Tangle writes:
Hilariously - in this tragicomedy - neither Tory nor Labour now want an election; they're terrified of the outcome.
So a no confidence vote is being pushed away a bit by both sides.
The remaining option then is referendum (if the other two possibilities are ruled out - hard exit and May's deal.)
That is definitely throwing a monkey wrench into the gears. As if the engine wasn't faltering already. I honestly am not sure how things will play out. I think that will become more apparent when the new PM is picked. That will give more indication as to the direction things will be going.
On a sidebar, the pundits on Dateline London think that the EU won't be providing any further extensions beyond October 31st. Macron especially is apparently not willing to draw out Brexit any further. My guess is since the EU elections weren't as good, he will likely want to take a more hard line stance.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 644 of 887 (853514)
05-28-2019 11:43 AM


What the EU elections mean for Brexit
The following video has a pretty good breakdown and summary of the British EU elections and how they may affect Brexit:

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 648 of 887 (854840)
06-13-2019 2:34 PM


Boris Johnson leads in first ballot for PM
quote:
Boris Johnson has secured the highest number of votes in the first MPs' ballot to select the Conservative Party leader and next prime minister.
Three contenders - Mark Harper, Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey - were knocked out in the secret ballot held in the House of Commons.
Mr Johnson received 114 votes, while Jeremy Hunt was second with 43 and Michael Gove was third with 37.
Seven candidates progress to the next round of voting next week.
Boris Johnson tops first ballot in Tory leadership contest - BBC News

Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 652 of 887 (854887)
06-13-2019 7:02 PM
Reply to: Message 650 by Taq
06-13-2019 5:01 PM


Re: Boris Johnson leads in first ballot for PM
YES!!!!
It's payback time for all those times the Brits laughed at us Yanks for electing Trump. Don't try to tell me I'm wrong, you were laughing . . .
What's somewhat ironic (and disconcerting) is the resemblance:

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