Understanding through Discussion


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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
PaulK
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Posts: 15319
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 616 of 718 (853278)
05-24-2019 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 615 by Percy
05-24-2019 2:49 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
quote:

Is it a fair question to ask whether navigating these waters to end up anywhere but a hard Brexit is even possible?

Now ? No Brexit is still possible. If by some chance we get a Labour Prime Minister or a Tory favouring a soft Brexit that might be possible, too. The Tories might well split if it came to either, though.

quote:

Is there any flavor of soft Brexit that would have gotten enough votes in Parliament?

Quite possibly - if May had made more concessions to Labour in the recent talks that might even have done it.

quote:

May's independent sort of soft Brexit failed several votes in Parliament, but would a very soft Brexit (maintaining very close ties with the EU through treaties) have mustered enough votes? And would the EU even agree to it?

May was going for a hard Brexit. The problem was that the Irish Backstop threatened to turn it soft. Without that it would have passed.

The EU would be prepared to make changes to the Political Agreement favouring treaties, but it would depend on the government being able to push those through Parliament.


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 Message 615 by Percy, posted 05-24-2019 2:49 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
caffeine
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Posts: 1682
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 617 of 718 (853279)
05-24-2019 4:41 PM
Reply to: Message 615 by Percy
05-24-2019 2:49 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
And would the EU even agree to it?

To a very soft Brexit with Britain still tied to most European treaties? Of course they would! Most European governments would rather Britain stays in the EU, but if they're going to leave better they leave without disrupting the European market. For a country like the Netherlands, a Brexit where Britain adopts a position like Norway's is the best case scenario, excluding Britain remaining in the EU. For a country like France, it would actually be a best case scenario fullstop (my thinking here being that UK and Holland usually vote the same way in the Council, unlike France, so a UK in the EU without voting power would be the ideal situation for France).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 615 by Percy, posted 05-24-2019 2:49 PM Percy has responded

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Percy
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Posts: 18801
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 618 of 718 (853281)
05-24-2019 7:53 PM
Reply to: Message 617 by caffeine
05-24-2019 4:41 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
caffeine writes:

And would the EU even agree to it?

To a very soft Brexit with Britain still tied to most European treaties? Of course they would!

Oh, okay. So why didn't May change course to a softer Brexit? Because she opposed that type of Brexit? Because she would have gained some votes in Parliament but lost others?

And would the EU have been willing, after all the effort already put into negotiations, to renegotiate so different a Brexit?

I'm reading conflicting views about the probability of a hard Brexit. All see it as having become at least a little more likely, but some now think it most likely.

--Percy


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 Message 619 by PaulK, posted 05-25-2019 12:50 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
PaulK
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Posts: 15319
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 619 of 718 (853283)
05-25-2019 12:50 AM
Reply to: Message 618 by Percy
05-24-2019 7:53 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
quote:

Oh, okay. So why didn't May change course to a softer Brexit? Because she opposed that type of Brexit? Because she would have gained some votes in Parliament but lost others?

The usual explanation is that it would have split the Tory party. But she hasn’t shown a lot of flexibility on the matter either,

quote:

And would the EU have been willing, after all the effort already put into negotiations, to renegotiate so different a Brexit?

They wouldn’t have to. The transitional phase in May’s agreement keeps things stable and everything else can be negotiated in that period.

quote:

I'm reading conflicting views about the probability of a hard Brexit. All see it as having become at least a little more likely, but some now think it most likely.

May was never willing to offer a soft Brexit, so I’d say that the odds have marginally improved. Mainly because the chance of a General Election has gone up and Corbyn would go that way.


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Diomedes
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Posts: 884
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 620 of 718 (853296)
05-25-2019 11:38 AM
Reply to: Message 619 by PaulK
05-25-2019 12:50 AM


Re: Understanding Brexit
May was never willing to offer a soft Brexit, so I’d say that the odds have marginally improved. Mainly because the chance of a General Election has gone up and Corbyn would go that way.

Ultimately, a soft versus hard versus no Brexit will be predicated on who will be the next PM. If we get a Boris Johnson as PM, then any notion of a soft Brexit or no Brexit will likely be out the window. Ditto for Gove being PM.

The big issue I see now is that the Conservative back benchers have all been steaming with May and pointing to the conspiracy theory that since she was in favor of remain, that was why Brexit has turned into a buggers muddle. As the Brits like to say. I think it would have been a shit storm either way, but my guess is they will likely be pushing for a more hardline Brexit supporter who voted Leave. And that will increase the likelihood of a hard Brexit.

As you said, there is the possibility of a general election. I don't know the particulars of how that might come about. The Conservative party is still in control and I think they have to call one. But I believe there is a provision that if the appointed Prime Minister doesn't have the support of parliament, then an election has to be called. The Brits on this forum can correct me if I am wrong.


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Tangle
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Posts: 7011
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.8


(1)
Message 621 of 718 (853300)
05-25-2019 12:41 PM
Reply to: Message 620 by Diomedes
05-25-2019 11:38 AM


Re: Understanding Brexit
Corbin has said that as soon as the new PM is in place he'll call a vote of no confidence. If that succeeds, then there's an election and the pooh really hits the fan.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 620 by Diomedes, posted 05-25-2019 11:38 AM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
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Posts: 884
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 622 of 718 (853324)
05-26-2019 10:29 AM
Reply to: Message 621 by Tangle
05-25-2019 12:41 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
Corbin has said that as soon as the new PM is in place he'll call a vote of no confidence. If that succeeds, then there's an election and the pooh really hits the fan.

Interesting. But I wonder how likely it is that a vote of no confidence would succeed in this case. Conservatives still have the majority unless the DUP break ranks. But I guess a lot of that will depend on who May's successor will be.

I happened to watch Dateline London on the BBC yesterday and they were actually pretty pessimistic about things working out at this stage. Most are in agreement that a No Deal is now the most likely scenario. Mainly because they assume that May's replacement will be more hard line and will likely use the next Brexit deadline as a bargaining point. So I guess we will see how things play out.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 621 by Tangle, posted 05-25-2019 12:41 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 623 by Tangle, posted 05-26-2019 11:11 AM Diomedes has not yet responded
 Message 624 by AZPaul3, posted 05-26-2019 1:39 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7011
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 623 of 718 (853327)
05-26-2019 11:11 AM
Reply to: Message 622 by Diomedes
05-26-2019 10:29 AM


Re: Understanding Brexit
The next PM is highly likely to be a real Brexiter which causes some problems in that no deal becomes more likely. But because the House has already voted against no deal - pretty much the only thing that has a majority - it would provoke a no confidence vote.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 622 by Diomedes, posted 05-26-2019 10:29 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4413
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 624 of 718 (853331)
05-26-2019 1:39 PM
Reply to: Message 622 by Diomedes
05-26-2019 10:29 AM


Re: Understanding Brexit
But I wonder how likely it is that a vote of no confidence would succeed in this case. Conservatives still have the majority unless the DUP break ranks. But I guess a lot of that will depend on who May's successor will be.

Wait ...

May resigns so the parties in Parliament caucus to nominate a new PM. Since the Tories hold an effective majority they can select the PM. The Commons votes and the new PM is presented to the the Queen, who, despite having an executioner with a big ax, is apparently only allowed to respond "Yah, OK."

So now the newly approved PM drives back to Westminster to face a no-confidence vote? From the same house that just installed him/her as PM?

Is that really possible? Is this just political theater on Labour's part or could the House realistically vote no confidence in the same government they just voted into place? How, in political reality, can this happen?


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 622 by Diomedes, posted 05-26-2019 10:29 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 625 by Tangle, posted 05-26-2019 1:57 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7011
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 625 of 718 (853333)
05-26-2019 1:57 PM
Reply to: Message 624 by AZPaul3
05-26-2019 1:39 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
AZP writes:

So now the newly approved PM drives back to Westminster to face a no-confidence vote? From the same house that just installed him/her as PM?

Normally no. Currently yes.

The point is that it's the Conservative party that elects a PM, not Parliament. Parliament consists of MPs from all parties and it has voted against a no deal Brexit so it's possible that parliament could force a general election by succeeding with a vote of no confidence.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 624 by AZPaul3, posted 05-26-2019 1:39 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 626 by AZPaul3, posted 05-26-2019 2:48 PM Tangle has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4413
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 626 of 718 (853338)
05-26-2019 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 625 by Tangle
05-26-2019 1:57 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
Doesn't the prospective PM have to stand in the well and be voted on by the whole of the House with a majority of the members voting in favor before he can go present his credentials at Buckingham?

Or,

Is it that the Tories, being the more numerous party without a majority, send their man to Buckingham requesting a chance to form Her Majesty's next government?

How this work?

From Wiki.

quote:
The office is not established by any statute or constitutional document but exists only by long-established convention, which stipulates that the monarch must appoint as Prime Minister the person most likely to command the confidence of the House of Commons;[5] this individual is typically the leader of the political party or coalition of parties that holds the largest number of seats in that chamber.

"most likely to command the confidence of the House of Commons." How is that determined? If a prospective PM can not get the votes to the position of a majority of MPs how can such a "command the confidence of the House" be demonstrated?

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 625 by Tangle, posted 05-26-2019 1:57 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 627 by Tangle, posted 05-26-2019 3:40 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7011
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 627 of 718 (853349)
05-26-2019 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 626 by AZPaul3
05-26-2019 2:48 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
It's the party that can form a majority in Parliament that sends someone to Queenie to ask to form a government. The 'someone' is elected by the party, not Parliament. Parliament has no vote on who gets to be PM.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 626 by AZPaul3, posted 05-26-2019 2:48 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 628 by AZPaul3, posted 05-26-2019 4:14 PM Tangle has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4413
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 628 of 718 (853353)
05-26-2019 4:14 PM
Reply to: Message 627 by Tangle
05-26-2019 3:40 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
OK. I'm trying to wrap my head around this.

So the Tories have the plurality. The Tories all sit in a room and say "Boris is our man." Now Boris and company go to the other smaller parties and say "Join us." In exchange for some portfolio or other a small party says "OK. Boris is our man, too." So Boris bucks off to Buckingham where Her Majesty looks at him sideways and says, "Well, I suppose. Ok."

By the time Boris gets back to Westminster Corbin stands and says "No confidence."

The small parties have just joined the coalition to form a government and are ready to assume their duties as agreed with the Conservatives. Is there any real probability they will abandon the government having just agreed to serve with them?

If the smaller parties we so inclined to crash the government why would they agree to the coalition in the first place?

The whole no confidence shtick seems like politics as usual with no real purpose.

I'm missing something.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 627 by Tangle, posted 05-26-2019 3:40 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 629 by PaulK, posted 05-26-2019 4:28 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply
 Message 630 by Straggler, posted 05-26-2019 4:29 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply
 Message 632 by Tangle, posted 05-26-2019 6:01 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 15319
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 629 of 718 (853354)
05-26-2019 4:28 PM
Reply to: Message 628 by AZPaul3
05-26-2019 4:14 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
As I understand it, the Tories already have a deal in place with the DUP which barely gives them a majority. The other parties wouldn’t even deal with May and Boris is not likely to be more popular.

That’s enough to try to form a Government - but if even a few Tory MPs are sufficiently unhappy (and they really might be) a quick vote of No Confidence could pass. It is very unusual but that is where Brexit has got us.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 628 by AZPaul3, posted 05-26-2019 4:14 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

    
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10285
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 630 of 718 (853355)
05-26-2019 4:29 PM
Reply to: Message 628 by AZPaul3
05-26-2019 4:14 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
If enough tories who don’t like Boris join the opposition parties in a no confidence motion it could work.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 628 by AZPaul3, posted 05-26-2019 4:14 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
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