quote: I see in the news that May has lost the support of her cabinet and is expected to resign on Friday. What happens after that? Does this guarantee a no-deal Brexit?
I expect her to hang on longer. But when she goes nobody knows what will happen. A strongly pro-Brexit replacement might be able to force no-deal, but we donâ€™t know who the replacement will be.
The latest news here is that publication of the Withdrawal Bill - promised for Friday - has been delayed.
She will probably go in June - thereâ€™s a threat to change the rules to allow a new challenge if she doesnâ€™t step down by the 10th.
quote: Viewed from afar and through the filter of American reporting, May seems a politician of honesty, integrity, determination and extraordinary persistence who sincerely believed she could shepard Britain through the intricacies of Brexit. In retrospect maybe it was too impossible an undertaking for anyone.
I think that has much to do with the poor quality of politicians on your side of the Atlantic.
May made a lot of mistakes, and to a large degree is the author of her own misfortune. Rushing into invoking Article 50. Calling a General Election which reduced her Parliamentary majority. Negotiating a deal which a large part of her own party wouldnâ€™t accept. Refusing to make adequate concessions to either side.
Brexit is a mess. And largely it is a mess because the pro-Brexit side didnâ€™t really agree on what they wanted and didnâ€™t really account for the issues - especially the Irish border.
quote: Theresa May I think was guilty of some major overconfidence once she was chosen as PM. And she did seem to have a stubborn 'my way or the highway' approach to negotiating Brexit. Now that reality has set in, she is desperately trying to find some way across the finish line.
And again her unwillingness to compromise sabotaged her negotiations with Labour. If she really wanted to deliver Brexit she had to come up with something that would satisfy enough MPs. And she never did.
quote: I think the bigger question is how will her replacement process pans out. It is pretty much given that her time is short. But the current alternative that seems to have the highest chance of filling the PM role in the interim is Boris Johnson. Now if May is accused of being too rigid in her negotiating style, what does that say about Boris who doesn't believe in ANY compromises and seems to be perfectly content to leaving without a deal.
I donâ€™t think that the odds of becoming leader are greatly in his favour. But No Deal possibly stands a better chance than Mayâ€™s deal at this point. Itâ€™s the only possible option that the ERG would accept. Rewriting the deal to remove the backstop is out, as is sabotaging it in the Political Declaration. And it is possible to weasel into it since it is currently the default.
quote: Is it a fair question to ask whether navigating these waters to end up anywhere but a hard Brexit is even possible?
Now ? No Brexit is still possible. If by some chance we get a Labour Prime Minister or a Tory favouring a soft Brexit that might be possible, too. The Tories might well split if it came to either, though.
quote: Is there any flavor of soft Brexit that would have gotten enough votes in Parliament?
Quite possibly - if May had made more concessions to Labour in the recent talks that might even have done it.
quote: May's independent sort of soft Brexit failed several votes in Parliament, but would a very soft Brexit (maintaining very close ties with the EU through treaties) have mustered enough votes? And would the EU even agree to it?
May was going for a hard Brexit. The problem was that the Irish Backstop threatened to turn it soft. Without that it would have passed.
The EU would be prepared to make changes to the Political Agreement favouring treaties, but it would depend on the government being able to push those through Parliament.
As I understand it, the Tories already have a deal in place with the DUP which barely gives them a majority. The other parties wouldnâ€™t even deal with May and Boris is not likely to be more popular.
Thatâ€™s enough to try to form a Government - but if even a few Tory MPs are sufficiently unhappy (and they really might be) a quick vote of No Confidence could pass. It is very unusual but that is where Brexit has got us.
Because her own Party was about to kick her out. They would have changed the rule that limited challenges to their leader just so they could do it, which wouldnâ€™t have been good for the Party either. So she jumped first, because anything else was worse.