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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
PaulK
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Message 586 of 673 (852524)
05-13-2019 3:53 AM
Reply to: Message 585 by Heathen
05-13-2019 2:39 AM


Lib Dem isn’t the only Remain option. There are also the Green Party and Change UK (formerly The Independent Group). Regional parties may also be Remain - the SNP being a big one.

The electoral system for the European Parliament is different, too. Bigger constituencies, electing multiple representatives, so voting for the smaller parties may not be a wasted vote.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 588 of 673 (852529)
05-13-2019 8:22 AM
Reply to: Message 587 by Heathen
05-13-2019 4:11 AM


Change UK are in a bit of a mess, but the SNP in Scotland in the Greens elsewhere already have MEPs. And any of them would do for a protest vote against Brexit.
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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
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Member Rating: 3.4


Message 591 of 673 (852540)
05-13-2019 11:12 AM
Reply to: Message 589 by Heathen
05-13-2019 10:07 AM


The European elections have large constituencies electing multiple MEPs from party lists. Scotland for instance is one constituency with 6 MEPs. It’s called the D’Hondt method.
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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 602 of 673 (853190)
05-23-2019 11:11 AM
Reply to: Message 601 by Percy
05-23-2019 10:52 AM


Re: What Now?
quote:

I see in the news that May has lost the support of her cabinet and is expected to resign on Friday. What happens after that? Does this guarantee a no-deal Brexit?

I expect her to hang on longer. But when she goes nobody knows what will happen. A strongly pro-Brexit replacement might be able to force no-deal, but we don’t know who the replacement will be.

The latest news here is that publication of the Withdrawal Bill - promised for Friday - has been delayed.

She will probably go in June - there’s a threat to change the rules to allow a new challenge if she doesn’t step down by the 10th.

quote:

Viewed from afar and through the filter of American reporting, May seems a politician of honesty, integrity, determination and extraordinary persistence who sincerely believed she could shepard Britain through the intricacies of Brexit. In retrospect maybe it was too impossible an undertaking for anyone.

I think that has much to do with the poor quality of politicians on your side of the Atlantic.

May made a lot of mistakes, and to a large degree is the author of her own misfortune. Rushing into invoking Article 50. Calling a General Election which reduced her Parliamentary majority. Negotiating a deal which a large part of her own party wouldn’t accept. Refusing to make adequate concessions to either side.

Brexit is a mess. And largely it is a mess because the pro-Brexit side didn’t really agree on what they wanted and didn’t really account for the issues - especially the Irish border.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 605 of 673 (853208)
05-23-2019 12:40 PM
Reply to: Message 604 by Diomedes
05-23-2019 12:24 PM


Re: What Now?
quote:

Theresa May I think was guilty of some major overconfidence once she was chosen as PM. And she did seem to have a stubborn 'my way or the highway' approach to negotiating Brexit. Now that reality has set in, she is desperately trying to find some way across the finish line.

And again her unwillingness to compromise sabotaged her negotiations with Labour. If she really wanted to deliver Brexit she had to come up with something that would satisfy enough MPs. And she never did.

quote:

I think the bigger question is how will her replacement process pans out. It is pretty much given that her time is short. But the current alternative that seems to have the highest chance of filling the PM role in the interim is Boris Johnson. Now if May is accused of being too rigid in her negotiating style, what does that say about Boris who doesn't believe in ANY compromises and seems to be perfectly content to leaving without a deal.

I don’t think that the odds of becoming leader are greatly in his favour. But No Deal possibly stands a better chance than May’s deal at this point. It’s the only possible option that the ERG would accept. Rewriting the deal to remove the backstop is out, as is sabotaging it in the Political Declaration. And it is possible to weasel into it since it is currently the default.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 608 of 673 (853253)
05-24-2019 5:14 AM


Theresa May Resigns.
Departure date is 7th June.

So let’s see if the Tories can mess themselves up even worse this time.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
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Member Rating: 3.4


Message 616 of 673 (853278)
05-24-2019 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 615 by Percy
05-24-2019 2:49 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
quote:

Is it a fair question to ask whether navigating these waters to end up anywhere but a hard Brexit is even possible?

Now ? No Brexit is still possible. If by some chance we get a Labour Prime Minister or a Tory favouring a soft Brexit that might be possible, too. The Tories might well split if it came to either, though.

quote:

Is there any flavor of soft Brexit that would have gotten enough votes in Parliament?

Quite possibly - if May had made more concessions to Labour in the recent talks that might even have done it.

quote:

May's independent sort of soft Brexit failed several votes in Parliament, but would a very soft Brexit (maintaining very close ties with the EU through treaties) have mustered enough votes? And would the EU even agree to it?

May was going for a hard Brexit. The problem was that the Irish Backstop threatened to turn it soft. Without that it would have passed.

The EU would be prepared to make changes to the Political Agreement favouring treaties, but it would depend on the government being able to push those through Parliament.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 619 of 673 (853283)
05-25-2019 12:50 AM
Reply to: Message 618 by Percy
05-24-2019 7:53 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
quote:

Oh, okay. So why didn't May change course to a softer Brexit? Because she opposed that type of Brexit? Because she would have gained some votes in Parliament but lost others?

The usual explanation is that it would have split the Tory party. But she hasn’t shown a lot of flexibility on the matter either,

quote:

And would the EU have been willing, after all the effort already put into negotiations, to renegotiate so different a Brexit?

They wouldn’t have to. The transitional phase in May’s agreement keeps things stable and everything else can be negotiated in that period.

quote:

I'm reading conflicting views about the probability of a hard Brexit. All see it as having become at least a little more likely, but some now think it most likely.

May was never willing to offer a soft Brexit, so I’d say that the odds have marginally improved. Mainly because the chance of a General Election has gone up and Corbyn would go that way.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 629 of 673 (853354)
05-26-2019 4:28 PM
Reply to: Message 628 by AZPaul3
05-26-2019 4:14 PM


Re: Understanding Brexit
As I understand it, the Tories already have a deal in place with the DUP which barely gives them a majority. The other parties wouldn’t even deal with May and Boris is not likely to be more popular.

That’s enough to try to form a Government - but if even a few Tory MPs are sufficiently unhappy (and they really might be) a quick vote of No Confidence could pass. It is very unusual but that is where Brexit has got us.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 651 of 673 (854874)
06-13-2019 5:31 PM
Reply to: Message 650 by Taq
06-13-2019 5:01 PM


Re: Boris Johnson leads in first ballot for PM
To be fair (to us) it’s more like the Primaries than a full election. In fact it’s less open than the Primaries at this stage. Only Tory MPs get to vote.
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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 655 of 673 (854941)
06-14-2019 7:56 AM
Reply to: Message 653 by caffeine
06-14-2019 6:57 AM


Re: Boris Johnson leads in first ballot for PM
That belonged in the humour thread.

But I’m sure that Boris will be just as consistent as he is honest.

BBC


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 660 of 673 (855419)
06-19-2019 1:59 PM
Reply to: Message 659 by caffeine
06-19-2019 10:30 AM


Re: Down to four; Boris still in the lead
Rory Stewart actually managed to lose votes, and was eliminated. Disappointing, since he seemed the least awful of the bunch and the only one with any realistic idea of what to do about Brexit.
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 663 of 673 (855509)
06-20-2019 11:39 AM
Reply to: Message 662 by caffeine
06-20-2019 10:58 AM


Re: Down to three - Sajid Javid eliminated
quote:

Now we're in 2019, where it looks like the lesser evil.

What the hell happened?


The Conservative party went nuts over Brexit, won’t listen to reason and the leading alternative is Boris Johnson.


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PaulK
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Posts: 15204
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 670 of 673 (857404)
07-08-2019 11:14 AM
Reply to: Message 669 by Percy
07-07-2019 7:31 PM


Re: Why Did May Step Down?
Because her own Party was about to kick her out. They would have changed the rule that limited challenges to their leader just so they could do it, which wouldn’t have been good for the Party either. So she jumped first, because anything else was worse.
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