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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 656 of 887 (855297)
06-18-2019 2:50 PM
Reply to: Message 648 by Diomedes
06-13-2019 2:34 PM


Down to five; Boris still in the lead
quote:
Dominic Raab has been knocked out of the Tory leadership race in the latest ballot of MPs, leaving five candidates in the battle to be the next PM.
Boris Johnson once again came top of the ballot, with 126 votes - 12 more than in the first round.
Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Rory Stewart also got enough votes to make it into the next round.
Mr Raab was eliminated after coming last with 30 votes, three fewer than the minimum needed to progress.
Dominic Raab out of Tory leadership race as five proceed - BBC News
Race looks like this now:
Boris Johnson - 126 votes
Jeremy Hunt - 46
Michael Gove - 41
Rory Stewart - 37
Sajid Javid - 33
Mathematically, Johnson's lead will be very difficult to overtake. The other candidates put together have 157 votes. That is more than Johnson's 126 but it is likely many of those votes might end up in his pocket as others drop out.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 648 by Diomedes, posted 06-13-2019 2:34 PM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 657 by caffeine, posted 06-19-2019 6:32 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 658 of 887 (855397)
06-19-2019 8:59 AM
Reply to: Message 657 by caffeine
06-19-2019 6:32 AM


Re: Down to five; Boris still in the lead
A lead in the Parliamentary votes isn't really relevant though. All that matters is finishing in the top two so as to progress to the final vote by their whole party membership.
Opinion polls suggest the majority of party members will vote for Boris, so all these elimination rounds are likely a bit irrelevant.
It does seem somewhat of a done deal now. I think they are only going through the motions to give the impression of due diligence. But unless Boris somehow tanks his candidacy by doing or saying something stupid, I pretty much see him as being the next PM.
44% of them would be happy to have Farage as party leader
Yikes! And I thought we had problems in the USA.
a majority consider leaving the EU more important than the continued existence of the United Kingdom, the continued existence of the Conservative Party, and the healthy functioning of the British economy
That basically shows that dogma and zealotry have taken over. Which is quite disconcerting. But unfortunately, they have now made their Brexit bed so to speak. Brexit defines the Conservative party at this stage and I think they believe if they don't deliver, it will fracture the party and alienate their base.
Well, should be an interesting ride.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 657 by caffeine, posted 06-19-2019 6:32 AM caffeine has replied

Replies to this message:
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 Message 661 by Diomedes, posted 06-20-2019 9:01 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 661 of 887 (855502)
06-20-2019 9:01 AM
Reply to: Message 658 by Diomedes
06-19-2019 8:59 AM


Down to three - Sajid Javid eliminated
quote:
Sajid Javid has been knocked out of the Tory leadership race, leaving three contenders vying for the job and to be the next PM.
The home secretary received 34 votes coming behind Jeremy Hunt with 59 votes.
Michael Gove received 61 votes and frontrunner Boris Johnson got 157.
A fifth round of voting will take place between 15:30 BST and 17:30 to select the final two candidates.
That result is due at about 18:15.
Tory leadership: Sajid Javid knocked out of contest - BBC News
Should know by the end of today who are the final two.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 658 by Diomedes, posted 06-19-2019 8:59 AM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 664 of 887 (855531)
06-20-2019 12:27 PM
Reply to: Message 663 by PaulK
06-20-2019 11:39 AM


Re: Down to three - Sajid Javid eliminated
The Conservative party went nuts over Brexit, won’t listen to reason and the leading alternative is Boris Johnson.
That's about the size of it.
Additionally, the Labour party under Corbyn hasn't exactly been effective either. Despite favoring remain, there were still many in the party (Corbyn included) who were Euro-skeptics.

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Replies to this message:
 Message 665 by Diomedes, posted 06-20-2019 2:13 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 665 of 887 (855572)
06-20-2019 2:13 PM
Reply to: Message 664 by Diomedes
06-20-2019 12:27 PM


The final two
quote:
Jeremy Hunt will face Boris Johnson in the race to be the next Tory leader and PM, after Michael Gove was eliminated in the final ballot of the party's MPs.
Environment Secretary Mr Gove was supported by 75 MPs - just two votes short of Mr Hunt's 77.
Mr Johnson, who was backed by 160 Conservative MPs, said he was looking forward to "getting out across the UK" and to set out his Brexit plan.
He and Mr Hunt will now be put to a vote of around 160,000 party members.
The winner will be announced in the week of 22 July.
Tory leadership: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are final two - BBC News

This message is a reply to:
 Message 664 by Diomedes, posted 06-20-2019 12:27 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(2)
Message 667 of 887 (855647)
06-21-2019 9:17 AM
Reply to: Message 666 by Tangle
06-20-2019 4:49 PM


We're fucked, might as well try to enjoy it. Think of England.
Hey Tangle: did you notice you made that statement in post '666' of this thread?
Coincidence? Or something more.....

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 Message 666 by Tangle, posted 06-20-2019 4:49 PM Tangle has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 671 of 887 (857449)
07-08-2019 2:28 PM
Reply to: Message 670 by PaulK
07-08-2019 11:14 AM


Re: Why Did May Step Down?
Because her own Party was about to kick her out. They would have changed the rule that limited challenges to their leader just so they could do it, which wouldn’t have been good for the Party either. So she jumped first, because anything else was worse.
The EU elections also sealed her fate. When the Brexit party took so many seats and the Conservative party lost a whole slew of MEPs, that basically put the final nail in the May coffin.
If she had remained and a general election was somehow called, the Conservatives would have been trounced.
Sadly, I don't see what Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt are going to be able to do at this stage. The EU has stated they are unwilling to renegotiate and either potential PM is more hard line with regards to a No Deal Brexit. Johnson more so.
I also think there is no chance of any further extensions to the deadline. October 31st seems to be etched in stone. On Halloween no less.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 670 by PaulK, posted 07-08-2019 11:14 AM PaulK has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 672 by Diomedes, posted 07-09-2019 2:34 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 672 of 887 (857599)
07-09-2019 2:34 PM
Reply to: Message 671 by Diomedes
07-08-2019 2:28 PM


Hunt vs Johnson - A Jonathan Pie Rant

This message is a reply to:
 Message 671 by Diomedes, posted 07-08-2019 2:28 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 676 of 887 (858708)
07-23-2019 8:07 AM
Reply to: Message 674 by Heathen
07-23-2019 5:50 AM


Boris Johnson is new PM
Happy Boris Day everyone!
future generations will mark this day by wearing ridiculous blonde wigs and spending the day lying compulsively, to remember when the UK got its worst Prime minister ever.
Not really a surprise at this stage. But nonetheless, Boris is the new PM. I see the Pound Sterling is already down in trading.
Now comes the interesting part: how will he fix Brexit? Not sure he even knows.

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Replies to this message:
 Message 677 by jar, posted 07-23-2019 8:28 AM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 682 by Taq, posted 07-23-2019 5:50 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 684 of 887 (858815)
07-24-2019 9:36 AM
Reply to: Message 682 by Taq
07-23-2019 5:50 PM


Re: Boris Johnson is new PM
He will probably adopt his predecessor's policy and just repeat irrelevant facts:
"Brexit means Brexit."--Theresa May
I'm still waiting for discussions around rebuilding Hadrian's Wall. And I hope it will be YUUUUUUGE!! Gotta keep them pesky Scot's at bay, don't yah know?

This message is a reply to:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 685 of 887 (858953)
07-26-2019 9:24 AM


So now what?
Boris is now PM. He indicated he is going to negotiate a new deal with the EU and also demand removal of the Irish backstop.
The EU has stated that there will be no further negotiations on the existing deal and that the Irish backstop has to remain in place.
Who is going to blink?

Replies to this message:
 Message 686 by PaulK, posted 07-26-2019 9:57 AM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 687 by Taq, posted 07-26-2019 10:38 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 688 of 887 (859031)
07-27-2019 11:52 AM
Reply to: Message 687 by Taq
07-26-2019 10:38 AM


Re: So now what?
PM Johnson may not blink, but Parliament will. The EU has major leverage with the Irish border, and I expect they will use it to the fullest.
I just wonder how much clout Parliament will actually have considering the circumstances. While Johnson is maintaining the premise of wanting an augmented deal, he has no qualms about no deal. And despite some of the recent voting in Parliament, that is the default option.
The only way to avoid a no deal if the current deal cannot be augmented is getting another extension or revoking article 50. I don't see either of those scenarios as being likely. And I don't know if Parliament can vote on a general election. I think that can only be called by the Prime Minister. Correct me if I am wrong.
And that notwithstanding, there is insufficient time to have a general election before the October 31st deadline.

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 Message 687 by Taq, posted 07-26-2019 10:38 AM Taq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 689 by caffeine, posted 07-28-2019 11:26 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 690 of 887 (859148)
07-29-2019 10:26 AM
Reply to: Message 689 by caffeine
07-28-2019 11:26 AM


Re: So now what?
The PM no longer has the power to call an early election. Parliament can, but it needs a two-thirds majority to do so. What they could do is vote no confidence in Johnson's government, and then if no one else can form a government within two weeks an election has to be held.
My suspicion is a 2/3rds majority is not likely. I suppose a vote of no confidence is a possibility, but being that this is a new PM with a new cabinet, that may not get traction either.
I guess as the situation unfolds, things and sentiment may change. But we are only three months away from the deadline. And I don't see Johnson asking for any extension at this stage since he is hell bent on leaving on October 31st. And there is no guarantee that the EU would even grant one.
The most disconcerting thing is I still have not heard one, tangible idea for solving the Irish backstop issue. All I hear is platitudes. If they exit on October 31st, doesn't that in essence ensure a hard border in Northern Ireland? I keep hearing them mention technology. But that actually has to be built and implemented. Don't think there has been any headway in that department.

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Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 693 of 887 (859167)
07-29-2019 12:55 PM
Reply to: Message 691 by jar
07-29-2019 10:38 AM


Re: How Low Can It Go?
The following link has a five year chart of the Sterling vs the US Dollar:
British Pound to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
The pre-Brexit high was 1.69 to the US dollar. The downward trend started around 2014 to 2015. Which I believe was when they announced the Brexit referendum. And of course, it cratered when the vote occurred. And is now trading around 1.22 to the US dollar.
Some of this is also attributed to the strengthening of the dollar post the Great Recession. But still, a pretty massive drop considering how strong the currency was at the peak.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 691 by jar, posted 07-29-2019 10:38 AM jar has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 696 of 887 (859302)
07-30-2019 2:42 PM
Reply to: Message 695 by jar
07-30-2019 11:10 AM


Re: Still curious about In and Out!
As has been the case for at least several hundred years the UK relies on imports for its very existence.
A lower pound would make all imports more expensive even ignoring tariff issues. It will make exports more attractive even ignoring tariff issues.
Can the UK increase exports and also reduce the demand for imports to at least keep the economy relatively stable?
If so, how?
I think the answer might be yes and no.
Depending on the commodity, a weaker pound might incentivize investment in local production of a particular good or service since it now becomes more economically feasible to produce that locally. But I think you can only take that so far.
There are a great many consumer staples that simply can't be produced in the UK. Various produce and fruits for example. I don't know the full details to articulate exactly how that would play out. But regardless, its not like anyone can flick a switch overnight and suddenly start producing more goods and services on a whim. So in the near to medium term, an import economy like the UK will get a double whammy from a lower sterling and potentially, tariffs.
I am wondering if Boris is thinking he will flip a proverbial F U to the EU and start importing more from Canada and the USA. That could offset the tariff issue if he negotiates some deal. Trump would of course love that. But even still, the weaker pound would still make that expensive. Maybe slightly less so since the US dollar is a little weaker than the Euro.
And can someone smarter than me explain how they will fix the Irish border?

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Replies to this message:
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