Message 34 of 39 (850089)
03-31-2019 8:21 AM
Sorry I didn't get back to this thread and don't know how far behind I am, I just wanted to say something in this post, mainly for reading.
I have been thinking more about this issue of improbability for a cell constructing itself, the improbability of abiogenesis.
Because I don't think it is only a matter of improbability. RAZD and other may conjecture some imagined scenario by which a localised congregation of the correct parts may form a cell.
It SEEMS like only a matter of numbers but I don't think it is. So I would like to explain this more so please be patient and read my explanation to understand the philosophical point I am making;
With a solely improbable issue, a truly improbable issue say like winning the lottery, even though it's highly improbable a specific person we choose before the lottery draw, will win, it's improbable based on the available combinations of numbers, players etc. In other words, it's truly an improbable event because it can be made more probable for that person to win. So for example we could increase the chances of the person winning by having them play many more lines, or play all of the available lotteries each week or whatever. Or we may increase the chances of guessing someone's pin number by having 500 attempts rather than only one attempt. I am sure you see my point.
HOWEVER, there are some events which it seems to me we use the word, "improbable" for in a more colloquial sense. It seems there are events which are better described as UNREAL events simply because they are contrary to reality, in that we can't find any rational reasons why the event would occur.
So for example, (don't toy with the example, you can't tweak it) imagine there is a gentle man that exists, let's say he is a Buddhist monk or whatever, and is genuinely the least violent person or one of the least violent people to ever exist. Is it a matter of improbability for us to believe that one day he would decide just from whim to randomly chop to pieces all of his fellow monks?
IT MAY SEEM like an improbable event, but as with the lottery example, an improbable event can become more probable with available time and numbers yet with this example time and numbers will not change the unreality of the event. We innately know some things just don't happen. (you can't say he loses his sanity, remember you can't tweak the example, it is by his choice, by whim he one day decides to do it.)
RATIONALLY we can infer; "there's just no reason to believe it would happen, and it doesn't matter if we know of no examples because waiting for one example won't change the fact that under these parameters it will not occur."
In the same way we all know that none of us will ever march for rapist-day, to celebrate rape. It's not that it's improbable, because if we live for a billion years we know it's simply not in our nature to support such a notion.
CONCLUSION: We know that there are things which just don't happen. It may SEEM like you can say, "we just don't have enough examples", like when we look around and don't see proteins forming by chance outside of life. But in actual fact it has nothing to do with numbers, it's that there just aren't any realistic reasons for some things to occur even if they are technically possible.
It is technically possible we could replace the wheel with a cube-shaped wheel, have it wreck machines, then just replace the machine parts and wheels with new cubed wheels. But that it is technically possible doesn't give it any reason to ever happen.
Now you may protest, "but mike, we know that we have X number of possible amino arrangements, and if you increase the number, however improbable, you may get the correct arrangement."
Of course I am aware of that, but the question is, is it only a matter of numbers like the lottery?
If it is then it's the same for metal naturally creating a car chassis. You may say "there just needs to be enough metal on enough worlds, given enough time, for it to occur".
But the problem is there is no physical reason why it should occur, and coincidentally be perfect for a car's frame, as well as all the other parts coming together which are metal, and getting together locally.
Even if we assume some parts can occur, such as a protein and a DNA, nevertheless this doesn't give nature any reasons to continue the build, so to speak. There would be no goal for these parts in nature. The goal of life can only exist once life does, and to get to that stage there aren't any physical reasons why it would happen altogether at once, or stage by stage.
If it's stage by stage, why would nature collect the correct parts? If it's all in one well, that's basically impossible.
So we know that this, like with the gentle monk, has nothing to do with numbers, it's that there is something that would have to happen contrary to the facts. Just as our monk would never be violent, we know that even if there were a trillion worlds for a trillion years there are no reasons in nature to design something of immense sophistication.
Or are you saying you would believe a car chassis could come about, somehow given enough worlds simply because it's "possible" there may be physical forces that can for example, bore threads into the chassis, of the correct type, so that there are holes on the chassis, 175 holes, all with an 18mm thread and 50mm long?
Obviously the more sophisticated the design is, the more absurdly unrealistic the proposal. So then how sophisticated is a contraflow lung? How sophisticated is a human brain? How sophisticated are the designs in nature? Biomimetics has proven that there is always a design in nature better than our own in whatever area we look at.
CONCLUSION: Rationally, I can't see any reasons so suppose physics would not act as it usually does like the monk. If a protein was created, physics wouldn't single it out and wait for it to become part of a cell, all that would happen half way through the build is entropy. Entropy would break down anything that was built LONG BEFORE it was built.
Abiogenesis is an unreality even if it is technically possible. I am not saying it is possible, I am just saying that if it is technically possible evolutionists then infer that, "it is therefore improbable, and given enough time, eventually probable, and then certain."
I believe that is a false dichotomy. I don't believe that if something is not impossible that "therefore it is only a matter of improbability". I think there are unrealistic scenarios which have nothing to do with numbers. (the monk and the cube wheels).
God created life.
Edited by mike the wiz, : Edit to say. I am not saying this is the strongest argument I have ever made, but personally it's enough for me intellectually that I don't think there are any reasons for nature to act differently in regards to life. I think when we look at abiogenesis NOT happening anywhere, and even in experiments when they try to make it happen, this is because it is simply and UNREALITY. And scientifically if it is an unreality, then so is evolution.
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