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Author Topic:   World Population - Projected Growth to 2100
Diomedes
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Posts: 874
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
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(1)
Message 1 of 11 (857454)
07-08-2019 2:39 PM


Came across this pretty neat video that shows the world population growth between 1800 and 2100, based on projections:

What is fascinating is you can see how specific policies and mindsets in places like Japan and China are going to result in declining populations for them over this century.

Japan especially is going to encounter severe economic headwinds if this projection comes true. Their population is projected to decline by over 30 million people in that time frame. For a country with debt at around 250% of GDP, that would lead to a nightmarish deflationary spiral.


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Sarah Bellum
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Joined: 05-04-2019
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 2 of 11 (857688)
07-10-2019 1:50 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Diomedes
07-08-2019 2:39 PM


In China the population is still increasing, but the working age population has already started to decline.

There's also the matter of the gender imbalance. What will happen to a country with tens of millions of young men with no possibility of finding a female partner in a country where the number of elderly is growing as the number of those young men who support them is not.


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 Message 6 by Diomedes, posted 07-11-2019 9:36 AM Sarah Bellum has acknowledged this reply

    
1.61803
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Posts: 2853
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 3 of 11 (857715)
07-10-2019 5:35 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Sarah Bellum
07-10-2019 1:50 PM


They'll start buggering the elderly and themselves?

Edited by 1.61803, : No reason given.


"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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Sarah Bellum
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Joined: 05-04-2019
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Message 4 of 11 (857743)
07-10-2019 10:33 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by 1.61803
07-10-2019 5:35 PM


One response to unrest at home is military adventures abroad.

With no shortage of possible "enemies" such as Taiwan, Korea, Japan, or any of the nations they're grabbing islands from in the South China Sea, not to mention places like Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang which China "owns" but might find it has trouble holding on to . . .

. . . there might be opportunities for tens of million of frustrated young men in search of adventure.


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Thugpreacha
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From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
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Message 5 of 11 (857754)
07-11-2019 3:47 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by Sarah Bellum
07-10-2019 1:50 PM


Biblical Mysteries
What will happen to a country with tens of millions of young men with no possibility of finding a female partner in a country where the number of elderly is growing as the number of those young men who support them is not.
The Bible mentions an army of two hundred million men coming from the east. Perhaps that is a clue.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith

You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.
In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.
~Stile


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Diomedes
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Posts: 874
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
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Message 6 of 11 (857770)
07-11-2019 9:36 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by Sarah Bellum
07-10-2019 1:50 PM


There's also the matter of the gender imbalance. What will happen to a country with tens of millions of young men with no possibility of finding a female partner in a country where the number of elderly is growing as the number of those young men who support them is not.

In all likelihood, this will exacerbate the population decline as many young men will simply emigrate to other areas. For China, since it is technically a growing economy, moving from an agrarian system to one that is more capitalistic, they may be able to absorb some of that with economic gains offsetting population demographic changes. But that is hard to say. China is very secretive about its economy and its banking sector. Many economists fear that things are far more tenuous with their economy and that their shadow banking industry has too much exposure to bad debt.

Japan however is in a terrible quagmire. Their economy is mature and they have been struggling with growth for decades now. With a non-existent immigration policy and nightmarish debt levels, I can't see how things will end well for them.
Japan had one of the largest property and stock bubbles in history that burst in the late 80s. Since then, they basically have a zombie banking system with the government propping things up with their monetary policy while the population, through a deep seeded sense of patriotism, has been also taking on a massive debt burden. They were offering 100 year mortgages at the height of their housing debacle and people even now, still seem like they have a duty to take on high levels of debt to keep things afloat.

Only time will tell how things will play out. But there is definitely no easy solution and a default of some sort may eventually become inevitable.


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ringo
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Posts: 16806
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
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Message 7 of 11 (857788)
07-11-2019 11:57 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by Thugpreacha
07-11-2019 3:47 AM


Re: Biblical Mysteries
Phat writes:

The Bible mentions an army of two hundred million men coming from the east.


It says "horsemen":
quote:
Revelation 9:16-17 And the number of the army of the horsemen were two hundred thousand thousand: and I heard the number of them. And thus I saw the horses in the vision, and them that sat on them, having breastplates of fire, and of jacinth, and brimstone: and the heads of the horses were as the heads of lions; and out of their mouths issued fire and smoke and brimstone.

Are you taking the lion-heads and fire-breathing literally too?

(I don't see where it mentions the east at all.)


All that are in Hell, choose it. -- CS Lewis
That's just egregiously stupid. -- ringo

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Theodoric
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Posts: 6392
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 8 of 11 (857794)
07-11-2019 12:56 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by ringo
07-11-2019 11:57 AM


Re: Biblical Mysteries
Phat needs to make every thread about his bible. That he misquotes and misinterprets everything in the bible is par for the course.

You would think an omniscient god would know that horses would fall out of favor as a mode of transportation.


Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


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dwise1
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Posts: 3550
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 9 of 11 (857798)
07-11-2019 1:13 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by ringo
07-11-2019 11:57 AM


Re: Biblical Mysteries
When I was a Jesus Freak Movement "fellow traveler" circa 1970, we got a lot of laughs from reading Chick Pubs tracts (years later, I found a lot of them left in the stalls of a restroom and all I could think was that they were too small to do much good if you ran out of toilet paper (think traditional use of old Sears & Roebuck catalogs)) and various books depicting the End Times.

One of the End Times scenarios dealing with that "army of horsemen" adding that they would come from the East, had hundreds of millions of Red Chinese soldiers on motorcycles bearing down on Armageddon. And that wasn't even the most ridiculous part, but it's been nearly half a century.

BTW, a good friend of Jack Chick and his source for materials on Satanism was John Todd, a nutcase who claimed to be an ex-Satanist, etc, caused an uproar in the fundamentalist community in the late 70's. Reportedly, while everybody else exposed Todd as a fraud, Jack Chick remained loyal.

With the Jesus Freaks, we also read a lot of their proselytizing training materials (cartoons depicting street-proselytizing conversations with non-believers, which provided trainees with scripts to use). Proselytizing creationists still use those same kinds of scripts a half century later; it can be so much fun to watch them as I go off-script and they have no idea what's happening or how to respond (one such case was an attempt to sell me on Pascal's Wager as "afterlife insurance".


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ringo
Member
Posts: 16806
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 10 of 11 (857799)
07-11-2019 1:27 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by dwise1
07-11-2019 1:13 PM


Re: Biblical Mysteries
dwise1 writes:

...hundreds of millions of Red Chinese soldiers on motorcycles bearing down on Armageddon.


Reminds me of the Monty Python sketch Erizabeth L (which was a take-off on the BBC mini-series Elizabeth R).

All that are in Hell, choose it. -- CS Lewis
That's just egregiously stupid. -- ringo

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Hyroglyphx
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Posts: 5718
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 11 of 11 (857834)
07-11-2019 9:18 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Diomedes
07-11-2019 9:36 AM


In all likelihood, this will exacerbate the population decline as many young men will simply emigrate to other areas. For China, since it is technically a growing economy, moving from an agrarian system to one that is more capitalistic, they may be able to absorb some of that with economic gains offsetting population demographic changes. But that is hard to say. China is very secretive about its economy and its banking sector. Many economists fear that things are far more tenuous with their economy and that their shadow banking industry has too much exposure to bad debt.

You can thank Deng Xiaoping for both opening the economy to a form of capitalism, which has undoubtedly brought millions out of poverty, but also while still retaining glimpses of its former self through a strict, government-controlled economy (Command Economy). He was the primary architect.

Its no secret that they prop their economy up through building projects that serve no other purpose than to raise GDP. They're GDP is very strong, but like the US they're taking on so much debt that its built on a house of cards.

And, as has been pointed out, their selective abortion campaign (kill all females or any male born with a male sibling) has really bitten them in the ass. There are millions of single, sexually frustrated men roaming around China with no mates or even potential mates. How could no one not see that coming? Naturally their population will decrease while India's will still soar... the projections in the graphic make sense to me.

Japan however is in a terrible quagmire. Their economy is mature and they have been struggling with growth for decades now. With a non-existent immigration policy and nightmarish debt levels, I can't see how things will end well for them.

Oh yeah... Their workforce is diminishing and it will not be able to support an aging population. They're whole obsession with virtual reality is seriously problematic. They don't fucking procreate!!! So we'll see this inverted pyramid where a tiny labor force is trying to sustain an enormous elderly population of pensioners. They'll be no money to support them.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

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