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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 718 of 887 (861299)
08-19-2019 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 717 by LamarkNewAge
08-12-2019 12:15 AM


Re: Third parties have a problem in efficiently spreading votes.
Interesting.
I wonder if this will affect Corbyn's current plan to call for a vote of no confidence in the current government. If it succeeds, then I believe a general election has to be called. Unless Boris can find a way to form a new government. But it appears from the polls that a general election would actually have an even more favorable outcome for his party. Which would essentially increase the likelihood of Brexit occurring.
I don't know how feasible it is for a general election to be viable prior to the October 31st Brexit deadline. Seems time is too short and Boris has indicated he won't ask for an extension. Not sure if Parliament can then take over and broker dialog with the EU asking for an extension. And there is no guarantee that the EU would even grant it.
Interesting times are ahead.

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 Message 717 by LamarkNewAge, posted 08-12-2019 12:15 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 719 of 887 (861853)
08-28-2019 9:09 AM


Johnson asks Queen to suspend Parliament
quote:
The government has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament just days after MPs return to work in September - and only a few weeks before the Brexit deadline.
Boris Johnson said a Queen's Speech would take place after the suspension, on 14 October, to outline his "very exciting agenda".
But it means the time MPs have to pass laws to stop a no-deal Brexit on 31 October would be cut.
Parliament suspension: Queen approves PM's plan - BBC News
Not a total surprise, since Johnson hinted at this. But how likely would it be that the Queen would agree to do so, especially on such a divisive issue? The royals have been pretty silent on Brexit, so my guess is they would prefer to just stay out of it.

Replies to this message:
 Message 720 by Percy, posted 08-28-2019 10:13 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 721 of 887 (861855)
08-28-2019 10:24 AM
Reply to: Message 720 by Percy
08-28-2019 10:13 AM


Re: Johnson asks Queen to suspend Parliament
I'm probably walking out on a pretty thin branch commenting on British politics, but aren't requests like this to the monarch just a formality, always rubber stamped?
Appears you are right Percy. The latest update is that Parliament will in fact be suspended starting in September:
quote:
Parliament will be suspended just days after MPs return to work in September - and only a few weeks before the Brexit deadline.
Boris Johnson said a Queen's Speech would take place after the suspension, on 14 October, to outline his "very exciting agenda".
But it means the time MPs have to pass laws to stop a no-deal Brexit on 31 October would be cut.
Parliament suspension: Queen approves PM's plan - BBC News

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 Message 720 by Percy, posted 08-28-2019 10:13 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 723 of 887 (861865)
08-28-2019 12:17 PM
Reply to: Message 722 by Tangle
08-28-2019 11:41 AM


So what is the likelihood that a vote of no confidence in the government can still occur? Do MPs have enough time to do that before parliament is suspended? I think there is a few days in September that could still allow them to do that.
If the vote is successful, does that have the possibility of negating the suspension of parliament?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 722 by Tangle, posted 08-28-2019 11:41 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 724 by Tangle, posted 08-28-2019 12:54 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 725 of 887 (861884)
08-28-2019 3:31 PM
Reply to: Message 724 by Tangle
08-28-2019 12:54 PM


From what I hear, they're going for a legal challenge first. But this has come out of the blue, the opposition is playing catchup.
btw, Queenie has now agreed.
This article from the BBC does a nice job summing things up:
Brexit and suspending Parliament: What just happened? - BBC News
Some key points:
quote:
Is it legal to suspend Parliament?
Yes. It's what normally happens between the end of one session and the beginning of the next. However, the circumstances are unusual.
A legal challenge would be difficult, since the government isn't breaking any law. It's just using parliamentary procedure, as Mr Johnson tries to fulfil his campaign promise to get the UK out of the EU.
MPs could either go along with the suspension, with the risk of a no-deal Brexit, or they could trigger an election with a vote of no confidence in the government.
quote:
What happens next?
Good question.
Parliament will go back to work next Tuesday 3 September, but will then go into recess.
If Mr Johnson gets his way, Parliament returns on 14 October, two-and-a-half weeks before the UK leaves the EU.
However, if MPs pass a vote of no-confidence before 10 September, there could be a general election in October.
quote:
If there's an election, will Brexit still happen?
That depends. If the Conservatives win, then yes. They're ahead in the opinion polls, at about 31% last week, after Mr Johnson took over from the previous Prime Minister, Theresa May, in July.
The main opposition Labour Party is trailing by 10 to 12 points, on about 21%. Labour is divided between traditional working-class areas, which tend to support Brexit, and voters in cities like London who are more in favour of remaining in the EU.
But a Conservative win is not necessarily in the bag. Other parties, including the centre-left Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Nationalists, are all staunchly opposed to Brexit on any terms.
Incidentally, the Sterling just took a hit as well. Wonder where it might end up after all this is done.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 724 by Tangle, posted 08-28-2019 12:54 PM Tangle has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 726 by jar, posted 08-28-2019 5:13 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 727 of 887 (861919)
08-29-2019 11:49 AM


Jonathan Pie strikes again

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 728 of 887 (862230)
09-03-2019 9:19 AM


Brexit Showdown
quote:
The PM faces a showdown in Parliament later as MPs aim to take control of the agenda to stop a no-deal Brexit.
Ex-chancellor and Tory rebel Philip Hammond said he thought there was enough support for the bill, seeking to delay the UK's exit date, to pass.
No 10 officials warned the prime minister would push for an election on 14 October if the government lost.
Boris Johnson said he did not want an election, but progress with the EU would be "impossible" if MPs won.
Last ditch efforts to get the Tory rebels on side have been taking place, but BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said the meeting between the prime minister and the group went "less than swimmingly" and was "less than cordial".
There are thought to be about 15 confirmed Tory rebels - set against the government's working majority of just one.
Brexit: Boris Johnson faces showdown in Parliament - BBC News
Should be an interesting week in British politics.

Replies to this message:
 Message 729 by Theodoric, posted 09-03-2019 11:59 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 730 of 887 (862278)
09-03-2019 2:21 PM
Reply to: Message 729 by Theodoric
09-03-2019 11:59 AM


Re: Brexit Showdown
It looks like the rebel MPs have at least crossed the first hurdle with regards to procedure, since the House Speaker has granted them the opportunity to debate and potentially take control of the House of Common's agenda:
quote:
Tory rebels and opposition MPs have cleared the first hurdle in their attempt to pass a law designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit.
Commons Speaker John Bercow granted them a debate and a vote on taking control of the Commons agenda.
If successful, they would be able to bring forward a bill seeking to delay the UK's exit date beyond 31 October.
No 10 officials have warned the prime minister will push for an election if they succeed.
Brexit: No-deal opponents argue for Commons control - BBC News
What I am trying to wrap my head around is if they succeed, Johnson will likely call for an election. However, he needs a two-thirds majority for that to succeed and from what I read, he likely won't get it. So you will effectively have a Parliament who wants to delay Brexit (or outright cancel it) and a PM that doesn't want to ask for a further extension or cancel Brexit. Legislatively, I am not certain if Parliament can ask the EU for an extension on their own. I am wondering if this might turn into another round of indicative voting like before, which yielded nothing.
Also not sure how the House of Lords factors into this and whether they can approve or block certain legislative acts. Maybe the Brits on this board can chime in on that.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 731 by PaulK, posted 09-03-2019 2:42 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 732 of 887 (862282)
09-03-2019 3:12 PM
Reply to: Message 731 by PaulK
09-03-2019 2:42 PM


Re: Brexit Showdo
The plan is to pass a bill which requires the PM to ask for an extension rather than crash out with No Deal. I can see BoJo ignoring it and letting the crash out happen anyway.
That is kind of the aspect of things I really don't understand. Can he ignore it, or is he beholden to the will of Parliament in this circumstance? I honestly don't get the legislative aspect of all these shenanigans.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 731 by PaulK, posted 09-03-2019 2:42 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 733 by PaulK, posted 09-03-2019 3:31 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 739 of 887 (862324)
09-04-2019 9:56 AM
Reply to: Message 737 by caffeine
09-04-2019 8:50 AM


I'm not really sure if Parliament can order government how to negotiate. They can refuse to ratify any agreement negotiated in contradiction to their instructions, but that doesn't really help in this case. British exit from the EU on 31st Oct is already agreed
That is honestly the part of this whole mess that has me scratching my head. How can they pass legislation to prevent what is, in essence, the default position?
They can vote no confidence in a government that refuses to negotiate in accordance with their instructions, but that doesn't give Parliament the ability to negotiate anything themselves, unless the opposition is willing to unite together with those expelled from the Tory party to declare confidence in a temporary caretaker government, which would then have the ability to negotiate a delay with the EU.
What is interesting is that all sides are playing politics right now, which is exacerbating the problem. Boris is actually playing chicken with both the EU and Parliament, basically goading them into potentially forcing his hand and calling a general election.
Labour actually may not want a general election at this time, now that Boris is in charge. They were pushing for it when May was PM. But it appears the latest polling numbers have them under performing in the current political climate. The Lib Dems will likely siphon seats away from Labour and it is possible that the Conservatives will gain new seats for the party members that voted against them recently and were expelled.
The other aspect of all of this which is also a huge uncertainty is the actions of the EU. They actually have to grant another extension. And there is no guarantee that will happen unless there is a likelihood that there might be another referendum. Even a general election may not coax them into extending the deadline again if the polling numbers show the Conservatives ahead.

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 741 of 887 (862403)
09-04-2019 4:21 PM


Johnson calls for general election
quote:
Boris Johnson is calling on MPs to back his plan to hold an early general election on 15 October.
The PM has laid a motion in the Commons to secure the poll. To succeed, it needs the support of two-thirds of MPs.
But Labour, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats have said they will not vote in favour.
Boris Johnson's call for general election rejected by MPs - BBC News

Replies to this message:
 Message 742 by PaulK, posted 09-04-2019 4:40 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 744 of 887 (862408)
09-04-2019 5:35 PM
Reply to: Message 742 by PaulK
09-04-2019 4:40 PM


Re: Even more weird
The Bill against no deal has passed in the Commons.
It was amended to say that the purpose of asking the EU for an extension would be to pass Theresa May’s Deal.
Even stranger, the amendment passed because the government forgot (perhaps on purpose) to assign Tellers to the ‘No’ lobby.
If that had happened to something of major consequence there would be eruptions. Was Boris testing the waters ? Trying to set a precedent for future shenanigans?
One of the things that was noted by analysts and pundits is that the amendments are designed to stall the bill in the House of Lords. That could delay it long enough that it will not come into effect prior to the October 31st deadline.
And in other news, the call for a general election has just been rejected by Parliament. A 2/3rds majority was needed and it appears Labour voted against it.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 746 by DrJones*, posted 09-04-2019 11:21 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 748 of 887 (862434)
09-05-2019 8:52 AM


Why would the EU grant an extension?
I was thinking about this yesterday: what exactly is the incentive for the EU to even grant another extension to the Article 50 deadline at this point?
The EU's main concern was a No Deal Brexit. Parliament has now legislatively taken that off the table. At least, on paper. So if the threat of a no deal doesn't exactly exist anymore, what is to stop the EU from simply denying the extension and telling the UK to choose between revoking Article 50 or accepting the deal negotiated with Theresa May?
The EU leaders, including Macron, are under pressure to just move on from Brexit. And the sentiment in Europe seems to be that they are just as sick of it as everyone else. Granting an extension now wouldn't seem to accomplish anything anyway. Even if it is for allowing for a general election, there is no guarantee that an election would yield any favorable situation. If an election goes the way of the Conservatives, than the end result could be worse. If it goes in the way of a Labour coalition of some sort, there is no guarantee that would yield a better result regarding the status of Brexit. Maybe a 'softer Brexit', but that may not clear Parliament anyway.
From the EU's perspective, the UK government is fractured and it appears Parliament is simply in an unworkable state. As a result, I could see the EU forcing the UK's hand with an ultimatum.

Replies to this message:
 Message 749 by Percy, posted 09-05-2019 9:16 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 750 of 887 (862439)
09-05-2019 9:31 AM
Reply to: Message 749 by Percy
09-05-2019 9:16 AM


Re: Why would the EU grant an extension?
I've probably said this before, but why can't Britain reverse Brexit? Why is the result of this populist resolution considered cast in stone?
In a nutshell, politics.
The primary issue in this mess are the politicians. Including both sides.
The Conservatives are fractured between two camps: the staunch Brexiteers who want out of the EU, deal or no deal. And the more moderates who want out, but with a deal of some sort. And also some that want to remain.
The Labour party has similar divisions. Despite what many think, many in the Labour party are also Euro-skeptics, including their leader Jeremy Corbyn. So Labour is also fractured with some MPs wanting to leave the EU, but with a softer Brexit or staying in the customs union, versus other Labour MPs who want to remain.
The Lib Dems want to remain for the most part. And the DUP (Irish nationalists) actually would prefer to leave because they feel staying might result in an Irish re-unification.
So the end result is massive political gridlock with no side having any clear majority for what they want.
I don't think having another referendum is an affront to democracy, as some MPs in Britain have claimed. But ultimately, they simply don't have the votes to mandate one. When they went through the round of indicative voting a few months back, the idea of having another referendum was posited, but rejected by parliament. In fact, they pretty much rejected everything.
So in a nutshell, its a quagmire, wrapped in a clusterfuck, morphing into a buggers muddle and resulting in an omni-shambles. And here we are.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 749 by Percy, posted 09-05-2019 9:16 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 756 of 887 (862552)
09-06-2019 1:05 PM


Jonathan Pie - The Purge
Can't have Brexit without Jonathan Pie.

  
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