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Author | Topic: Is The World Getting Better Or Worse? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Percy writes: There was some discussion up thread about Stephen Pinker's thesis that the world is on an improving trend of declining violence. Not that this isn't true, but it's an emergent property of increasing wealth. If/when wealth declines so will the trend of declining violence, along with other positive trends, such as declining wars, declining poverty, improving health and longevity, etc.Ted Talks runs a weekly radio show of interviews and Ted Talk excerpts of people who have given Ted Talks, and this week's included Stephen Pinker talking about his book The Better Angels of Our Nature, the one that Tangle referenced up thread that sparked this side discussion. Also on the show was Paul Gilding, former Greenpeace director and a Fellow at the University of Cambridge's Institute for Sustainability Leadership. Gilding spoke about his book The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring On the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World. Gilding's thesis is that The Earth is Full (the title of his Ted Talk), and that a number of current trends are running in the wrong direction, climate change being the most significant driver of change, but sustainability of resources, food production and pollution also being important. Gilding is optimistic, believing that civilization will survive, though not without massive catastrophes first. Some conclude from Pinker's ideas that mankind is getting better, that we are learning. We are not. Evolution doesn't work that fast. We're still the violent, brutish thugs we were 200,000 years ago. Our wealth (i.e., our improving ability to take advantage of natural resources) has enabled us to evolve increasingly enlightened societies that emphasize freedom, happiness, and health. But there's only one Earth, and as Earth's human population presses toward and then past 8 billion it will reach its limit of how much humanity it can sustain, particularly as we spectacularly fail to address climate change. It cannot be predicted whether this will happen as a gradual decline or as a crash. I suspect the former but punctuated by spectacular disasters of both climate and food. But whatever the pace of this change, it will bring with it increasing violence and decreasing freedom, happiness, and health as nation-states battle over resources with the nuclear threat ever present. Our primary hope must be that science and technology somehow win the race against climate change, but this possibility is in the hands of politicians who in many western countries, by far the most powerful block of countries in the world, are given power by electorates too dominated by blockheads swayed by the arguments of populists, scaremongers, haters and reality show hosts. This deserves a thread of its own. Tangle would likely argue that the world is getting better. Faith (and I) would argue that the world is getting worse or at best still mired in the violent brutish thug phase that Percy mentions. Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Perhaps, but if we don't do fine in this neck of the woods, there may arise some major conflicts.
Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Diomedes writes: I agree that we are getting better overall. I also agree with jar that no religion should gain (or maintain) power...secular humanism is inevitable. Oddly, I still cling to my belief that prophecy is real, however...and that God acts through others. I believe that there will again be a major war that will be bigger than WW II. In a way, we are already in the early stages of this war, and I believe that jar (and others) will see evidence of the brutish thug nature...that Percy claims we have never evolved out of and which some religious minds refer to as original sin. The world is most certainly getting better. It only gives the impression of being worse because we have access to so much more information nowadays. So every time something bad happens or some crisis manifests, everyone knows about it. Im not wishing for nor hoping for this scenario to play out...I have no need for the end times religious dogma to be proven true in any way simply to say that my belief was right. I hope that we humans can sidestep this land mine. Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
The biggest threat I see is climate change. It will radically change the biosphere of the planet and will likely displace millions of people over the next few hundred years. We could be taking better steps to mitigate this, but many individuals who have a vested interest in the status quo (Koch brothers), take steps to spread disinformation. The biggest threat I see is overpopulation combined with climate change. Humans will fight other humans in a competitive environment. Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Looking inward at my own "brutish thug nature"...and contemplating if I have the ability and the will to override it.....
jar writes: What is do fine?living a comfortable life rather than a life of hurt and struggle.. What is this neck of the world? the aging middle class in the US. baby boomers used to having more than they may end up with And what major conflicts? the ones we are in now...and our president creates more tension...showing resolution only with dictators... Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
What major conflicts are we in now? Trade wars and ideology wars with other cultures.
And just what will those aging middle class in the US. baby boomers who are used to having more than they may end up with do? The populists will want a dictator if necessary. The rest of them will try and patch the hole in the ship....in vain. the bill will get paid and we will die poorer, I suppose.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
jar writes: Basically, the tax cut was his main one. Conspiracy theorists and end time nut jobs may well argue that if a global or domestic crisis ensued, he could legally implement martial law to a limited degree...which would make him more than a wannabe at that point. There is a wannabe dictator now but what does reality show? What programs has he been able to actually implement?Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
ringo writes: Just this last year, the excuse for a 715 billion dollar military budget getting passed was due to Kim Jong Un having nuclear capability. (The excuse) A dictator can always use a crisis - like the Reichstag fire - as an excuse but that has nothing to do with whether the world is "better" or "worse" either. If a rogue warhead or two decimated a prime financial or military center in the world (picture 9-11 with 5 nukes instead of 5 planes) it would definitely become a crisis...one which would allow Trump unprecedented power.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Trump isn't quite there yet. He never won the popular vote, after all....but I believe that in the event of a crisis he would simply use what executive powers he has now to seize control. The military is a key too. No wonder we spend $700 billion a year to keep them happy.
And the populists would be glad to have a "man of God" in power during such a crisis. Nevermind that he isn't. Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
I agree with you except I would modify one of your sentences.
When societies crumble then violence and chaos and cruelty quickly reemerge. I agree that the social veneer is kept in place through improved standards of living. Throw us in a depression globally and take away our cushy lives but give us access to the weapons of mass destruction (or the ability to vote into power someone who does) and our similarity to Nazi Germany will not only equal but exceed their barbarity. We may catch ourselves before we slip so far down, but necessity is a mother!Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
The difference between now and then is the monumental national debt. Would you not agree? We couldn't simply create a social safety net out of thin air were it the US alone that suffers the next major depression, as jar seems to suggest.
The challenge for the US citizen in general, and notably the authoritarian populists specifically is to maintain our composure while the rest of the world moves on ahead of us.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Someone brought up something or other that caused me to search the EvC database for an appropriate topic...which I found. Lo and behold, I originated it! Percy seems to have framed it the best, however, so I will requote him here to get things rolling!
quote: jar writes: Trade wars and ideology wars with other cultures.
What major conflicts are we in now?jar writes: Anything that affects *me* counts as a major conflict. And I predict that the Trade Wars are early opening salvos as China takes over the US spot of dominant economic global power. So far those would not count as major conflicts in the real world.There is a good video on YouTube about trade wars. Patrick Bet David has street smarts and an intuitive feel for the topic: Tangle writes: In this new book that I am reading, Jesus Among Secular Gods which I will soon start a Book Nook topic on, has a lot to say about the philosophical clash of world views that are already happening. They don't predict a crisis but make a strong case for the world view of the Biblical Christians which the rest of us are so wary of. f we ignore wealth for the moment, I think we can accept that progress in our civilization has been made through the application of our growing knowledge which we've gained using our intelligence. That's a form of evolution, whether it's biological or not is academic. Edited by Thugpreacha, : No reason given.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
jar writes: If we keep the Populist "Christians" away from the button, we should survive. As an advocate of reformed Judaism and logic, reason, and reality, you won't like the culture war with the Biblical Christians, though. And they all have guns! Come to think of it, so do you! But what about a depression that is not global but just the US?Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Percy writes: Quite frankly I think that people are greedier now and more materialistic, in general. I worry about "stuff"...and money...more than my parents did when they were younger. They had nearly nothing and yet were happy. Affluence ruined a generation of Americans and it reflects in our political attitudes and division. One counterpoint that can be thrown at the idea that a society is only as kind as it can afford to be is to ask why the Depression didn't create a less compassionate country.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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Phat Member Posts: 18348 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
jar writes: What wealth, though? We are collectively in debt. How much are we to spend without sacrificing our own quality of life? I'm all for spare change, but we need to define what we have, what we need, and what *they* need. And who is *they*? Are we expected to support the whole world? The challenge is to stop the madness that is current Conservatism and Neo-Fascism and spend our wealth on improving the general quality of life.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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