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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Commons Speaker John Bercow to stand down - BBC News There were rumblings about the Conservative party attempting to vote him out, so it appears that he beat them to the punch. Or maybe he just decided to bail before the No Deal Brexit deadline.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Johnson's government has managed to suffer more Commons defeats in one week than either Thatcher or Blair did in premierships that lasted more than a decade. I wonder if there is an award for that. I am curious what the next steps are going to be. Parliament is now in recess and Johnson is supposed to be going to the EU to broker a new deal. I doubt that will get much traction. His plan to use No Deal as a bargaining chip seems to now be gone. And he has emphatically stated he will not ask the EU for an extension despite technically now being mandated by law to do so if he has no new deal. I am still wondering if the EU might just decide to end this charade and not grant another extension. Macron has hinted at this, although he may be grandstanding. But from where I sit, it seems the EU is holding all the cards right now. So I wouldn't be surprised if they simply denied the extension and told the UK that they either need to accept the deal already in place or revoke Article 50. Put all the onus on them.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: Scottish judges rule Parliament suspension is unlawful - BBC News My guess is this will likely be over-ruled by the Supreme Court. But still, another slap in the face to Boris.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
It's clear Johnson massively overplayed his hand since he became Prime Minister. There is going to be a large amount of turmoil now in British Politics.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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My favorite line in reference to Boris:
"He's the perfect storm of hubris, incompetence, deceit and shit hair!"
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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My favorite line in reference to Boris: "He's the perfect storm of hubris, incompetence, deceit and shit hair!" Reminds me of someone ...
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Several news papers are stating that a Brexit deal between Boris Johnson's administration and the EU may be on the brink of success.
Newspaper headlines: Johnson 'on brink of Brexit deal' amid late talks - BBC News At first I thought it might just be smoke and mirrors. But several EU leaders have confirmed that talks are yielding some positive momentum and that a deal may be on the verge of being ratified. Of course, said deal would still have to pass parliament. But it looks like Boris may have 'some deal' ready for the special session of parliament this weekend.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: EU and UK reach deal but DUP refuses support - BBC News Of course, this would still have to be approved by Parliament. And that is a big 'if' since the DUP has stated they won't support it.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
OK, so what the hell just happened? What is this Letwin Amendment? From what I see this Letwin thing said Parliament would not vote on Boris’ Brexit deal until it discussed and passed the Brexit deal. Say what? In a nutshell, the Letwin Amendment is an extra 'insurance policy' for the Benn Act, which essentially makes it clear that the Prime Minister has to ask the EU for an extension to the Article 50 deadline. The concern was that they didn't want a vote on the deal prior to the PM asking for the extension because they thought Boris might find a way to circumvent the extension request. Interestingly, Boris has indeed sent a letter to the EU asking for an extension. But it was unsigned. He then also sent a second letter, which was signed, telling the EU that he thinks an extension is a mistake. So its an interesting case of a world leader basically sending bipolar signals to the EU. I am actually quite curious what the EU will do at this point. From my point of view, I think it might actually be in their best interest to reject the extension request. That would put all the onus on the UK to either accept the new deal, leave without a deal or cancel Article 50. Most of what is going right now in the UK is political maneuvering. All political parties are trying to engineer a scenario that they think will be most beneficial for them in the election that is likely to come.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: MPs' vote on deal ruled out by Speaker John Bercow - BBC News Another setback for Boris.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit: Johnson agrees to Brexit extension - but urges election - BBC News Looks like The Never Ending Story is going to continue a while longer. And you Brits will likely be having an election shortly.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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A couple of good Jonathan Pie rants here:
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Boris Johnson Set for 68-Seat Majority According to YouGov Poll I have to admit, that is somewhat surprising. I had actually assumed we might be headed for a hung parliament. But sounds like Labour and Corbyn are not doing a good job at wooing voters. Edited by Admin, : Fix URL where scraping yielded uninformative text.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
I don't find this surprising at all - this was the obvious and expected outcome. Brexit supporters in the north and midlands who supported Labour last time in the safe and comforting support that Brexit was going through anyway no longer feel that security. A lot of voters are sick and tired of the whole Brexit mess, and Johnson is in the luxury position of being able to promote a simple 'let's get Brexit done' message; and present himself as the man who's been sensibly fighting for that against an obstinate and out of touch elite. Labour have no simple message to contest with that. Remember that the Tories only need about 40% of the vote to get a convincing majority. How could this election go any other way? I honestly don't have enough requisite information on the demographics and voting patterns of the UK. But I guess my surprise was that with all the talk about Brexit and the Tories bungling things during May's tenure as PM, I had assumed that there would have been a shift in sentiment. Clearly that was not the case. Interestingly, despite the fact that I watch BBC World News all the time here in the USA, their coverage of the UK election was very minimal. Also a surprise. Maybe they adjust what is shown in the USA versus what they televise in the UK. But honestly, it has been mostly crickets with regards to the election or the campaign.
Swinson is a fucking moron. Once again, very minimal knowledge of Jo Swinson or her platform. I know initially she stated she would 'cancel Brexit'. Maybe not the best verbiage to use. And I think she also said she won't back Corbyn.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
People were indeed disgusted with May's bungling of Brexit, but she's already gone. Johnson has come in presenting himself as the sensible voice of normal people willing to take care of things and 'get Brexit done'. He wants to use this election to say to people 'I just want to get on with things and enact the will of the British people, and look how all these politicians are interfering and making a mess'. Important thing to realise is that most people are just tired of Brexit. Brexit fatigue is certainly something that has been mentioned by various pundits. Although I thought there might have been enough backlash to warrant another referendum. But clearly at this stage, it appears the majority just want it done and would prefer to move on. Regardless of the risks.
Swinson threw herself into this campaign in the deluded but, as far as I can see, genuine belief that the Liberal Democrats can actually win. This is pretty absurd on its face. The electoral arithmetic has always been against the Liberal Democrats, and I struggle to understand how she could not be intimately familiar with this fact - given her job. Politicians, generally speaking, have big egos. So I can't say that mindset surprises me. Many people often have a cognitive dissonance regarding how they perceive the world versus what the reality of the situation actually might be. I think social media actually makes this situation even worse since it isolates people in their own bubbles, where their views and opinions are just re-enforced by those that have like-minded views. Ultimately, it does appear some form of Brexit will now be a done deal. I only wonder if Johnson comes to power with a big majority, will he push for additional concessions on his existing deal or just go with what he has? Being that now he can use the threat of No Deal with more efficacy if he does indeed get a big majority, it might give him confidence into pressing the EU for additional changes to the existing deal. Time will tell.
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