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Topic: The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 281 of 505 (865995)
11-03-2019 5:36 PM
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Reply to: Message 279 by Percy
11-03-2019 3:36 PM
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Has-been Haridan Hillary ...
Looks like Hill is considering entering Dem race, thinks she can beat Trump ... What would happen now is (a) she would split votes with Biden (good) (b) become an instant target for Trump to wet his pants over and ignore other candidates (good) Enjoy
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 279 by Percy, posted 11-03-2019 3:36 PM | | Percy has seen this message but not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 296 of 505 (866062)
11-04-2019 7:38 PM
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Reply to: Message 295 by Faith
11-04-2019 6:13 PM
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Re: One young white guy confused for another
I found that place where Buttigeig says he is dropping out of a race, and that's the headline I thought I saw. Curiously all I could find was him dropping out from DNC chairman race.
search: butigieg drops out Enjoy
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 295 by Faith, posted 11-04-2019 6:13 PM | | Faith has not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 298 of 505 (867505)
11-26-2019 11:14 AM
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So Bernie still polls beating Trumpty on FOX
quote:
Biden, Sanders, Warren beat Trump, according to new Fox News poll By Matthew Segura |
Posted: Mon 10:53 AM, Nov 04, 2019 |
Updated: Mon 12:20 PM, Nov 04, 2019 MONROE, La. (KNOE) - A new Fox News poll has former Vice President Joe Biden far ahead of President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2020 matchup. The poll, which was released on Nov. 3, shows Biden ahead of Trump by 12 points. 51% of respondents said they would choose Biden if they election were held today. 39% said they would choose Trump. 5% said other, 4% said they didn't know, and 2% said they wouldn't vote. Biden vs. Trump was the only hypothetical matchup in which Trump lost points. In all other matchups, he polled at 41%. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders also hold leads over Trump in the latest Fox News poll, albeit slightly smaller ones. 49% of respondents said they would choose Sanders. 41% said they would choose Trump. 5% said other, 4% said they didn't know, and 1% said they wouldn't vote. 46% of respondents said they would choose Warren. 41% said they would choose Trump. 7% said other, 4% said they didn't know, and 2% said they wouldn't vote. A couple of hypothetical matchups send more voters to a third-party candidate or keep them home entirely. A matchup between Pete Buttigieg and President Trump is a toss-up, with both polling at 41%. In a hypothetical rematch between Trump and Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016, 43% of respondents said they would choose Clinton and 41% said they would choose Trump. These numbers are within the poll's margin of error. 9% said other, 3% said they didn't know, and 5% said they wouldn't vote. The poll did not ask respondents about other candidates.
It will be interesting to see if the impeachment hearing changed any minds. Enjoy
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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but the electoral college effect is not considered
The 3 most recent polls are the above Washington Post ABC poll and a FOX poll and the Emerson poll. What I want to see is a poll that goes state by state and then inputs that into the electoral college systemic bias. That would be more accurate in general election results. Enjoy
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 302 by LamarkNewAge, posted 01-29-2020 8:21 PM | | RAZD has seen this message but not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Re: Sanders does better as a Socialist than a Democrat
Vox had a great story a day ago. It shows a good polling operation which worded a Sanders verses Trump question 3 different ways. Link? Skeptically I find VOX left of center and mildly trustworthy. They generally publish articles I like, which raises a flag, but fact checking generally bears them out. Enjoy
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Re: Sanders does better as a Socialist than a Democrat
Matthew Yglesias Jan 31 article Bernie Sanders beats Trump even when you remind people he is a socialist That is about the title but I have phone trouble. Is Bernie Sanders’s socialism a liability in the general election? - Vox Also posted on a couple other sites (reddit, democratic underground)
The truth is that Sanders is more likely to beat Trump when the disgusting Democratic Party label has been fairly well rejected by Sanders and the other two labels of socialism and independent are looked at by voters. Indeed, his strength is appealing to independent voters outside the dem party. He is also as a result more likely to bring along coattail candidates across the voting spectrum that are social democrats, etc rather than old school dems.
DNC officials are openly discussing bringing back SupetDelegates on the first ballot to stop Sanders. Don Fowler Jr and Donna Brazile admit that they lost the game to rig the 2020 primary in a manner similar to 2016 WHEN TOM PEREZ AND SANDERS Succeeded in changing the rules back in 2018 BUT it is still possible to go back to 2016 rules for 2020 and infact there are those in the DNC that propose doing just that. Fowler and Brazile admit that any return to 2016 SuperDelegate rules should better not take effect until 2024. The DNC really knows how to lose an election. Enjoy
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 325 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-04-2020 1:05 AM | | RAZD has seen this message but not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Re: 21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
Perhaps we should just do the opposite of what Kerry and Clinton tell us is sound candidate selection. This is where I think the Sanders campaign not me us excels. He talks about a revolution by including candidates at all levels in his organization, something it seems the DNC forgets about, knowing that he (or any democrat) will not be able to get much done without the senate. He appeals to independents and never voted before people, and he inspires and supports candidates for other offices AOC as a case in point. Enjoy
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Re: 21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
I still am amazed at how Hillary Clinton got the ONLY Republican she could beat as her general election opponent in 16 and still did so badly that she blew a good Senate map.
Talk about down ticket damage for Dems in 16. What you never see mentioned is that she sucked all the DNC and state committee funds out for her campaign, leaving nothing for the down-ticket candidates. Enjoy
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 339 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-05-2020 6:58 PM | | RAZD has seen this message but not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Re: 2 general election polls with massive samples come out
Are those polls filtered through the electoral college? IF not, they mean naught. Enjoy
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 350 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-08-2020 10:50 PM | | RAZD has seen this message but not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 353 of 505 (871723)
02-10-2020 12:59 PM
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Reply to: Message 352 by Percy
02-10-2020 8:54 AM
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Re: New Hampshire Primary is Tomorrow -- My Take
Bernie Sanders: For going toe-to-toe verbally with Trump on a debate stage, it's Bernie. His ability to deflect criticism and then return to his message is very strong. He had a very strong debate performance. But he embraces the socialist label. He insists on calling it "democratic socialism," but if you look it up it's not much different from plain old socialism. ... You won't let this go. They are very different. The Nordic countries are democratic socialist countries akin to what Bernie proposes. They do very well taking care of their people, they have high government satisfaction, high cultural happiness satisfaction with life. Their economies are capitalistic in general with social programs that provide for healthcare, university education, welfare, etc. "Socialism" has a broad definition and many versions, including democratic socialism and social democracy (quite different) as well as ones that lean towards communism. The major difference for democratic socialism as proposed by Bernie is that the social programs are decided democratically and employed democratically. It is government of the people, by the people and for the people, as Abraham Lincoln said. Look up FDR -- he was a democratic socialist with his programs and his proposed second bill of rights (that didn't get passed before he died). He won 4 elections, because his programs were for the people not corporations and rich people. Bernie consistently beats Trumpski in head-to-head polls by the highest margins. For those looking for electability that is a very good metric. He also has the popularity to have long coat-tails, and he supports down ticket candidates -- which is what you need to win the Senate (need only 4 seats)
Amy Klobuchar: She's a strong second for going toe-to-toe with Trump. ... A good contender for Vice President. Comes from Midwest so would attract midwest voters.
Buttigieg's clarity of message seems to be diminishing ... HE waffles and has changed positions, most notably on healthcare, which he now is against. To my mind that makes him ineluctable. To beat Trump with the purported hyped economy you need a strong issue and healthcare for all is one that polls at the top across party lines. That helped win 2018 house seats.
Elizabeth Warren: She didn't say much at the debate, but she was on the Sunday programs. I can't figure her out, or maybe it's just that I can't figure out how I feel about her. I like her, I like her intellect, I think she has knowledge and mastery of the issues, but gaffes seem to follow her around, ... Her stand on healthcare is a problem, as she hasn't really embrace full universal healthcare, and has backed away from it. Most people I know had expected her to endorse Bernie in 2016, but she waited until the end to endorse Hillary. There are many voters that will not forgive her for that. (Hillary as too much baggage) Again a possible VP candidate, but that loads the ticket with two New Englanders with no representation for other areas. Klobuchar coming from Minnesota makes a more rounded ticket, but still leaves the whole western side of America out. I think the best place for Warren is on the Supreme Court, she taught law at University of Pennsylvania Law School as a full professor and at Harvard after that. We need someone strong to replace the notorious RBG, and I think Liz is up to it.
Joe Biden: He was a non-entity in the debate. ... A DINO that needs to retire and take Hillary and Perez with him.
Tom Steyer: ...
Andrew Yang: Thank you for coming. I don't see any fire that will bring out the voters. Bloomberg is also a DINO and he is trying to buy the election rather than win it. Not being in the early primaries should hurt him, so he's hoping the big delegate states will give him enough. I expect Bernie to win the primary, because of his ground campaign and dedicated supporters. Wonder what the DNC/Media will do to downplay that ... as they did to Iowa when he won there. Enjoy
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 352 by Percy, posted 02-10-2020 8:54 AM | | Percy has seen this message but not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 363 of 505 (871776)
02-12-2020 9:27 AM
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Reply to: Message 360 by Percy
02-12-2020 7:14 AM
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Re: New Hampshire Primary Results
Many pundits are saying that the nomination is now Bernie's to lose. Sure, he's wildly even recklessly liberal, but if elected he's not going to get his way with Congress and so many of the items on his pet agenda would get moderated and watered down. The debates would be great entertainment because I'm betting that Sanders would have no qualms about calling Trump a pathological liar to his face. He's incapable of speaking without passion and deep belief. He's a politician because that's his nature, not because he learned the ropes. Bernie has the best ground game, and any candidate is going to have trouble getting their way ... unless we can retake the senate. Personally I think Bernie is the best chance for this due to his army and the "our revolution" crowd (i would've said "our evolution" - because it is change from within not slash and burn). A lot of the blue wave in 2018 was from this crowd (and spin-offs like Brand New Congress) and from Working Families Party. This puts fresh blood into congress. Pelosi and Schumer and Perez may have to watch their backs if a lot more progressives get elected.
... He's incapable of speaking without passion and deep belief. ... and honesty. Not bad for going against Trump who has mock passion and master con artist showmanship.
One pundit referred to Buttigieg's approach as bafflegab. I think I know what she means (Opinion | This Amy Klobuchar could beat Trump. Where has she been all year?). In the last few weeks Buttigieg's pointed clarity has become more vague and diffuse, more aspirational but less detailed. I find him tediously chirpy. Appeals to old-school dems more than Joe, and that is where I think he got a lot of votes from -- Joe tanked in the debate. He also takes large donor and PAC money, which means strings when elected. We saw in 2016 that you don't need them for the primary and we saw in 2018 that we didn't need them in the election. AOC, for example, is more effective in congress without strings to donors. Top Contributors, federal election data for Pete Buttigieg, 2020 cycle OpenSecrets Many independents and young voters will hold this against him. One comment I heard was that he appeals to Bernie'.s demographic and Bernie appeals to his demographic. On this I think Bernie is taking the right side to energize the youth to vote -- necessary to win in November.
Many are saying that even after Klobuchar's surprising success and rapid climb from the single digits spurred by last Friday's debate performance that she still has a very tough uphill road. She has neither the funding nor the organization. In my view she has to throw caution to wind and spend beyond her campaign's means to get what needs doing done. Yeah, I saw a lot of talk about combining Butegieg and Klobuchar scores to beat Bernie and Warren, but both of are large donor and PAC money takers, and that means strings, though not as much as Butigieg. You can't take on the banks and the oligarchy with strings to them. Sen. Amy Klobuchar - Campaign Finance Summary OpenSecrets Looks like she is at the break even funding point.
Warren gave a stirring speech shortly after the polls closed. If only she campaigned and interviewed as well as she speeched. That she's the second most liberal candidate in the race doesn't help either. She rejects SuperPac money, and I think PAC money, too, but whatever the details, she's determined to rely upon small donations, which is hurting her fundraising. She and Bernie are the only small donor supported candidates. It's not hurting Bernie's campaign, in fact it's one of his strengths. She's not doing so well because she waffled on single payer health this time around and on endorsing Bernie first time around, so she seems to be more issue based on convenience than passion.
Biden left for South Carolina in the middle of the voting. Can his campaign recover? Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet have dropped out. Deval Patrick received less than 1% of the vote and said he would think things over and have an announcement today. Bloomburg is going to eat Joe's lunch and take some off from Burtigieg on super Tuesday March 3rd. 2020 Primary & Caucus Schedule | Voting Calendar - Election Central Enjoy
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 360 by Percy, posted 02-12-2020 7:14 AM | | Percy has seen this message but not replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 370 by Taq, posted 02-14-2020 5:38 PM | | RAZD has replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 375 of 505 (871919)
02-16-2020 11:37 AM
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Reply to: Message 370 by Taq
02-14-2020 5:38 PM
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Re: Get butts to the poll
I read an interesting article the other day about a political strategist who thinks there are no swing voters. There are Trump voters and Not-Trump voters, and they have already made up their mind. What will decide the election is who gets more people off their couch and to the polls. ... Looks like a good model. If this assumption/hypothesis is true, then what we need is turnout of progressive voters and anti-trump voters.
... From what I have seen, Bernie may be the best candidate to excite the electorate, despite him being an old frumpy white dude. With the right selection for VP, according to the article. It argues for a POC female, and I'm thinking Stacey Abrams - Wikipedia or Nina Turner - Wikipedia. Both are strong and passionate. They are geographically worth considering to spread appeal. Amy Klobuchar - Wikipedia is also worth considering ... for party unity with moderates.
... From what I have seen, Bernie may be the best candidate to excite the electorate, despite him being an old frumpy white dude. For uniting the party I think Bernie's campaign is the most inclusive and willing to extend hands to other democrats. #NotMeUS Enjoy
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 370 by Taq, posted 02-14-2020 5:38 PM | | Taq has not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 382 of 505 (871991)
02-17-2020 2:07 PM
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Reply to: Message 381 by jar
02-17-2020 11:58 AM
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robots
... while the actual running of the robots and machines are all done remotely with the actual operators being located all over the world. The problem is response time. You can see the delay on news from Europe etc to NYNY base. That means there needs to be some relatively local interface.
... As bandwidth and wireless access continue to expand industry will adapt increasingly towards decentralized production. ... And reductions in workforce/jobs. The question becomes who gets to work and what happens to those without work. So that would be part of the
... staff of perhaps a few dozen employees ... Although that number may be high. Who gets to benefit? Enjoy
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 381 by jar, posted 02-17-2020 11:58 AM | | jar has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 383 by jar, posted 02-17-2020 2:26 PM | | RAZD has replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 384 of 505 (871993)
02-17-2020 3:06 PM
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Reply to: Message 379 by Percy
02-17-2020 11:03 AM
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Re: How "Socialism" is Viewed
My opinion about how the word socialism isn't acceptable to a large segment of the voting public was reinforced on NPR today when someone described the word "socialism" as toxic. That about sums it up for me. It doesn't matter what modifier you put in front of it (democratic socialism, entrepreneurial socialism, utopian socialism), the term is toxic. You really have a bee under your bonnet, imho. You keep going down the road the GOP wants you to take (that's why they always raise Venezuela as if that is the only example).
... But what does democratic socialism mean when Bernie uses the term? Does he really mean he ultimately wants a socialist economy? Nope. He keeps pointing out the Nordic Countries that have a balance of socialism and capitalism in a democratic government system. Also see FDR, specifically his Second Bill of Rights - Wikipedia -- which is very similar to Bernie's platforms/issues.
In most people's minds socialism leads to totalitarianism. Right or wrong, when most people hear "socialism" they think Marxism, and when they hear Marxism they think communism, and when they hear communism they think of the USSR, the evil empire, the one that Putin is trying to rebuild now. ... Mostly people raised in the cold war era, where the right wing propaganda painted everything left of center as evil socialism. Congratulations, they convinced you, it seems. Most people I know today don't view Russia as communist, but as an oligarchy of autocrats. The term socialism as an evil epithet has been so overused that labeling town garbage pickup as socialist is seen to be ridiculously not the evil socialism is portrayed to be.
... Only a minority of people in the US think positive thoughts when they hear the word socialism. quote:
Popularity of Socialism Spiking in U.S., With 43 Percent Now Saying It Would Be Good for the Country The Gallup survey of a 1,024 adults found that 43 percent of Americans believed that some sort of socialism would be good for the country compared, while 51 percent who said it would by bad. The results revealed an 18 percent rise in the number of people warming to socialism compared with a 1942 Roper/Fortune poll, described by Gallup as "one of the oldest trend questions measuring attitudes on socialism in the U.S."
That's a pretty substantial minority. This poll also does not include democratic socialism, where you have a democratic government, socialist programs and capitalistic economy like we see in the Nordic countries that Bernie points to. The ones with the happiest citizens in the world, according to happiness surveys
quote:
Changing World Happiness | The World Happiness Report
Six of the top 7 countries are Nordic countries with strong social programs, democratic government and capitalistic economy, the sixth is Switzerland. Canada is up there in 9th place, the US is n 19th place, below New Zealand, Austria, Australia, UK, Ireland, Belgium. The mix of socialist programs varies from country to country, but they all have democratic government, capitalistic economy and various socialist programs -- most notably universal healthcare. Note that the portion "explained by GDP" is pretty much the same for the top countries and the US, where the difference comes in is explained by other factors. So it's not an either - or issue, it's like mixing a metal Alloy - Wikipedia, the percentages of the ingredients can change and you get different usable results with different percentages.
... But what does democratic socialism mean when Bernie uses the term? Does he really mean he ultimately wants a socialist economy? No, he wants a country with strong unions, strong worker rights, healthcare, good education, living wages for people working 40hr/week, more family time. Worker owned coops are nice, but he's not advocating them, so it's a pretty mild socialism. Enjoy
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 379 by Percy, posted 02-17-2020 11:03 AM | | Percy has seen this message but not replied |
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1424 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: 03-14-2004
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Re: Voters say Sanders shares their values in new USA Today Ipsos poll
https://www.reddit.com/...sos_poll_for_voters_bernie_sanders Always include links. Honesty is also one of his strengths. Enjoy
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