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Author Topic:   The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 305 of 505 (871268)
01-30-2020 8:52 PM


William Saletan of Slate is an example of b.s.
He had a Jan 28 article showing polls which have 70 percent of Americans and 25 percent of Democrats saying that they would never vote for a socialist. Then he shows that a Democratic Socialist gets 57 to 59 percent of voters saying that they could never support.
He looks at lots of polls on label questions.
He ignores the NBC Marist poll that had Sanders beat Trump 51 to 43 percent a week or so ago.
In New Hampshire.
This is a state that Trump6did 2 petcen6better than the national average in 2016.
This state is one that knows what Sanders GOP opponents say every 2 years when he runs for reelection in Vermont. Republicans buy scary socialist ads for every election and air them in New Hampshire.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 308 of 505 (871298)
01-31-2020 2:41 PM


Latest poll on 538 site is TIPP IBD poll Jan 23 to 30
Sanders beats Trump by wider margin than Biden and Bloomberg.
Side note. My ZTE phone had Bloomberg ready after I typed BIDEN AND.
There were 3 options for selected words and BLOOMBERG was one of the three.
I did not even type a B or a b.
Anyway Bloomberg is up by 48 to 47.
Biden 49 to 48
Sanders is up 49 to 47
But a L A Times poll has Biden up 49 to 40 while Sanders is up 47 to 40.
Still Sanders beats Trump by a good margin.
And my ZTE Advantage phone is amazing. After I typed SANDERS then the words BEATS and TrUMP were each respectivly1 of the 3 avalible at the right time. I was about to type them anyway but my time was saved.
Now Trump will really go after ZTE even more. Lol.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 319 of 505 (871359)
02-01-2020 11:51 AM


The biggest primary pollr is coming out
The does spell check won't let me say it D E S Moines Register 3 day poll.
The poll shows trends due to its 3 day nature.
The poll had Ron Paul ahead in 2012, but it was due to his big double digit lead on the first night. Paul had been ahead for weeks. It seemed like a Paul Romney race.
But Santorum had the lead on the last night of the poll. The warmongering Santorum came from nowhere and CNN explained how this 3 day breakdown was a good predictor in past elections.
Santorum won and Paul fell to third though a county by county coded map shows Paul winning 90 percent of the land area due to his strength in rural areas. Predictable as his 2008 support was almost entirely from non evangelical rural areas and 2012 polls showed few exceptions.
CNN has a 1 hour show tonight devoted to the poll when it drops.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


(1)
Message 320 of 505 (871382)
02-01-2020 5:27 PM


Sanders does better as a Socialist than a Democrat
Vox had a great story a day ago. It shows a good polling operation which worded a Sanders verses Trump question 3 different ways.
Democrat Sanders beats Trump 45 to 43.
Drop Democrat from the description of Sanders but show that Trump labels him a socialist and Sanders wins 47 to 42.
Just mention Sanders or Trump and it is 47 to 41 Sanders

Replies to this message:
 Message 321 by RAZD, posted 02-02-2020 10:36 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 322 of 505 (871414)
02-02-2020 1:07 PM
Reply to: Message 321 by RAZD
02-02-2020 10:36 AM


Re: Sanders does better as a Socialist than a Democrat
Matthew Yglesias
Jan 31 article
Bernie Sanders beats Trump even when you remind people he is a socialist
That is about the title but I have phone trouble.
Biden recently said QUOTE I am a Democrat... He says he's... not registered as a Democrat CLOSE. QUOTE
The truth is that Sanders is more likely to beat Trump when the disgusting Democratic Party label has been fairly well rejected by Sanders and the other two labels of socialism and independent are looked at by voters.
Also
DNC officials are openly discussing bringing back SupetDelegates on the first ballot to stop Sanders. Don Fowler Jr and Donna Brazile admit that they lost the game to rig the 2020 primary in a manner similar to 2016 WHEN TOM PEREZ AND SANDERS Succeeded in changing the rules back in 2018 BUT it is still possible to go back to 2016 rules for 2020 and infact there are those in the DNC that propose doing just that. Fowler and Brazile admit that any return to 2016 SuperDelegate rules should better not take effect until 2024.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 321 by RAZD, posted 02-02-2020 10:36 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 324 by RAZD, posted 02-03-2020 11:47 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 325 of 505 (871491)
02-04-2020 1:05 AM
Reply to: Message 324 by RAZD
02-03-2020 11:47 AM


Re: Sanders does better as a Socialist than a Democrat
Guess how many Democratic nominees have lost the national popular vote in the November general election for President of the United States of America since 1988.
1
Guess who.
John Kerry
Guess who is saying Sanders will be a disaster for Democrats chances in November of 2020.
Yup
Yep
Yessir
And in the last few days too
I really want to see what happens if Sanders wins the nomination just to see if the DNC and its favorite candidates ever should have been seen as even worthy of a sliver of credibility MUCH LESS THE TOTAL COMPLETE TRUST Democratic primary voters gave.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 324 by RAZD, posted 02-03-2020 11:47 AM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 326 of 505 (871492)
02-04-2020 1:32 AM


Sanders won 43 percent of non whites in Iowa
Biden and Buttigieg did the next best at 15 percent each.
Iowa was a 91 white caucus tonight so we are looking at Sanders getting about a 2.5 to 3 percent net over Buttigieg from minorities .

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 327 of 505 (871493)
02-04-2020 7:31 AM


See ABC news Feb 4 at 12 49 AM Gary Langer article
Ironically the title says Buttigieg has Broad based appeal. The title correctly says Biden not so much.
But Sanders beat both combined by over 3 to 2 among minority voters

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


(3)
Message 333 of 505 (871511)
02-04-2020 1:18 PM


21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
Democratic Senators
2000 Gore 50
2004 Kerry 45
2008 Obama 59
2012 Obama 53
2016 Hillary Clinton 48
Perhaps we should just do the opposite of what Kerry and Clinton tell us is sound candidate selection.

Replies to this message:
 Message 334 by RAZD, posted 02-04-2020 4:18 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 335 of 505 (871523)
02-04-2020 5:01 PM
Reply to: Message 334 by RAZD
02-04-2020 4:18 PM


Re: 21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
I still am amazed at how Hillary Clinton got the ONLY Republican she could beat as her general election opponent in 16 and still did so badly that she blew a good Senate map.
Talk about down ticket damage for Dems in 16.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 334 by RAZD, posted 02-04-2020 4:18 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 336 by Minnemooseus, posted 02-04-2020 10:02 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 337 by RAZD, posted 02-05-2020 11:15 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 339 of 505 (871575)
02-05-2020 6:58 PM
Reply to: Message 337 by RAZD
02-05-2020 11:15 AM


Re: 21st century Senate brought in by Democratic Presidential candidates
The Democrat talking heads on all the networks only point out factoids that would put Sanders in a bad light and Hillary always gets a pass.
All the snide remarks from the MSNBC and CNN Democratic commentators will never be an allusion to Hillary Clinton sucking funds and hurting the down ticket. Allusions would not even be possible anyway because the facts never have been mentioned despite the fact that they would be massively relevant to the endlessly discussed media topic of electable issues with the general Democratic Party condition centering around candidates for President.
We have been told endlessly about how mean Sanders supposedly was to Clinton and it is a lie that keeps getting repeated as if it is or was true. It just smells like McCarthyism. Don Fowler Jr used to say that superdelegates were going to be used to stop candidates dangerous to the country. Then the DNC claimed the superdelegates would not have any relevance to stopping a candidate AFTER Sanders started to beat Hillary Clinton. Now that the Supers have been reduced in power we are hearing about the laments from DNC officials who are more frank about the Supers ability to make the winners and losers.
Hillary Clinton 2016 New Hampshire delegate Christina Fowler said that Sanders went to bed a big winner primary night and woke up behind in New Hampshire delegates due to Super Delegates. She said that the unfairness in delegates was NOT SIMPLY A PERCEPTION issue that influenced media coverage about who was poised to win and loose but ALSO WAS A NUMERICAL REALITY which I think means that the 2016 Democratic Party Primary was stolen from the voters by the party.
I say stolen not Fowler and the Delegate Fowler is no relation to the powerful Don Fowler RIP and the living Don Fowler Jr.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 337 by RAZD, posted 02-05-2020 11:15 AM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 340 of 505 (871580)
02-05-2020 9:09 PM


92 percent in Buttigieg 26.5. Sanders 25.6
141 precincts left out of 1600
And I made a mistake last post. A few.
First the DNC was talking about Clinton essentially owning the SuperDelegate pledges to support her throughout the primary though they seemed to back down a bit once the voter selected Delegate math made a Sanders PLEDGED delegate win very unlikely. Then when Sanders needed to get 73 voter support in the California primary to win the pledged delegate race the unpledged Supers were not played up as much. But when the primary ended then the lies started which claimed that the SupetDelegates were never that important to the primary race after all.
I made the mistake of saying that their power was downplayed during the primary. They were played massively as we all remember. Like during the New Hampshire primary.
My next mistake was confusing California DNC member Christina Pelosi for a non existent New Hampshire delegate Christina Fowler. See a 2018 The Guardian article after the DNC rule switch.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 341 of 505 (871582)
02-05-2020 11:12 PM


Now 96 percent in it is 26.4 to 25.7 but Sanders has more people votes
Both are sure to get about the same number of delegates but the tiny Buttigieg lead is not in popular votes but local state delegates.
Sanders might just have the most popular votes when all is counted as he does so far.
Buttigeig could have a slight state delegate edge in the 26 to 26 race as he is up 0.7 percent there

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 342 of 505 (871585)
02-06-2020 12:41 AM


Now it is 26.2 to 26.1 with 97 percent of precincts in
So Sanders is certainly going to win the first choice popular vote by at least 4 points and his second choice popular vote lead of about 1 to 2 points will probably roughly hold.
But the biggest news is that the metric the media is looking at BEING THE STATE DELEGATE PERCRNTAGE is now totally tied. Almost.
Biden will have to go after his moderate rival regardless because there are now 3 moderates that will be there in it with strength. Vitrified. Spell check crap. Vitrified. Spell check won't let me put a period after Buttigieg
Bloomberg
Biden.
3 now though Bloomberg is more conservative than liberal so he is a fake moderate to me. He attempted to rile up New Yorkers to call their state senators to amend the constitution of New York to end the right to shelter that the homeless enjoy in New York.
Bloomberg spent millions in 2010 to make the historic Democratic takeover of the state Senate shortlived. He openly brought about the Republican retaking of the New York State Senate just 2 years after Democrats finally got it narrowly in 2008. Democrats in 2018 just did something amazing though. They gained 8 seats and went up to a 40 to 23 majority which is actually 39 to 24 since one member is a DINO who supported GOP control when he was the tie breaker for control.
Bloomberg lost his racist stop and frisk ultimately as well.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 739 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 343 of 505 (871627)
02-07-2020 9:05 AM


Buttigieg is surging. DNC is happy. Dont forget we live in Opposite World
When the DNC and mainstream media tell us that Democrats are making a good electability vote for the general election THEN don't forget about the Opposite World that seems to exist.
First the reality in the real world. Tump might be much safer with another moderate opponent as opposed to Sanders. Trump might just get 15 percent of the African American vote against Buttigieg. Trump might get to run against an opponent who offers so little for the poor and lower middle class that his good policy changes could be seen as a massively helpful decision in THE DNC SHINNING LIGHT.
That is to say that the darkness of the DNC causes Trumps doubling of the standard exemption for tax payers from 6000 to 12000 dollars to shine like a super nova.
There will be nothing from the Democratic Party candidate to offer if it is the same old DNC candidate to offer a counter.
Trump is looking better and better in the real world when the DNC gets obeyed by the Democratic Party primary voters
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

  
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