|
Register | Sign In |
|
QuickSearch
EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total) |
| |
popoi | |
Total: 915,815 Year: 3,072/9,624 Month: 917/1,588 Week: 100/223 Day: 11/17 Hour: 7/1 |
Thread ▼ Details |
|
Thread Info
|
|
|
Author | Topic: The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1404 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Are those polls filtered through the electoral college?
IF not, they mean naught. Enjoyby our ability to understand RebelAmericanZenDeist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 22391 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2 |
Theodoric writes: Buttigieg is in reality quite right wing. I don't think so. Buttigieg positions:
I don't know his position on tax reform - I wish he'd be more clear about it.
The black and minority vote will stay home if he is the candidate. Why do you think that is? Is it fixable?
The only reason he is a Dem is that he is unacceptable to the GOP. If the GOP did not hate gays he would be a Republican. That Buttigieg is gay is a significant problem. --Percy
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 22391 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2
|
ringo writes: Percy writes:
We don't hire airline pilots that way. Pete Buttigieg, because he has the most potential to grow into the job. They'd all have to grow into the job, even though the others all have substantially more government experience. I just think Buttigieg's potential for growth in office is substantially greater than the other candidates. There's an intellect there that I don't sense in the other candidates, except Warren. His ability to articulate the issues and the principles behind his positions on them is why I'd consider voting for him. His major drawbacks are lack of experience, youth, lack of black support, and being gay. That's a lot of drawbacks. But all the candidates have drawbacks. Biden's age seems to be showing in his energy, his articulation, his coherency. I can't list specific drawbacks for Warren other than that she's a woman (that's not a drawback for me - it's other people I'm worried about), I'm just generally uncertain about her effectiveness as a campaigner. Sanders embraces the socialist label, which is deadly for him. Klobuchar just can't seem to gain any leverage. I've seen Steyer's commercials and he talks like a billionaire indulging himself. Bloomberg's a complete unknown to me. I wish Stacy Abrams would get in the race, but that's not happening. --Percy
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
It sounds like you are making a statement about Trump being a President you feel negativity towards.
My point was that Sanders performs in a way that is totally contrary to what we would expect from all the electability verses unelectability chatter. Consider this The last non partisan poll on the general election was a state poll taken which matched Trump against the Democratic nominees. It was from January 31 to Feb 2 by East Carolina University and it was a poll measuring South Carolina voters attitudes. This is by far the most conservative state on the east coast. Trump won 54 to 41 in 2016. Georgia is the next best east coast state for Trump in 16 and it was a 5.7 race. Bloomberg looses SC 53 to 33. Klobuchar looses 52 to 33. Buttigieg looses 53 to 34. Sanders and Biden loose 52 to 40. Steyer spent alot for the primary in SC and he is loosing 52 to 39 Sanders does better than the chatter wants us to think. A lot better.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
Sanders does relatively better than the rest of the Democratic candidates in the state races.
Even in partisan polls. The most recent general election poll was from Feb 4 to 5 by a Republican firm and it was on New Hampshire. McLaughlin and Associates has Sanders loosing to Trump 48 to45 and Biden loosing 49 to 45. Partisan polls only are released when the poll shows the party candidates performing much better than the rest of the polls that show what is really going on. Trump looses New Hampshire in the real polls. Sanders is clearly strong in swing state New Hampshire.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
I KNEW the media would try to play her up ever since she announced she was running. I also knew that I should ignore it all as it would be a media driven fantasy with no voter driven support to the stories.
There are cherry picking poll watchers who are writing articles which ignore the mass of polls that have Klobuchar tanking. The media says Klobuchar is red hot. Actually the last 2 CNN polls that have been released on back to back days this weekend have Klobuchar getting 5 and 6 percent. 2 points ahead of Yang and the poll today has her up 1 over Gabbard. Granted there has not been a general election poll since before Iowa voted, but Klobuchar did not perform well against Trump relative to the other Democrats. I did not think so. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 22391 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2 |
I watched the Friday Democratic debate and the Sunday morning analysis programs and had these impressions:
I have decided to vote in the Democratic primary. I don't know how I will vote tomorrow, but right now (and this could change) it's between Klobuchar and Buttigieg. --Percy
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1404 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined:
|
Bernie Sanders: For going toe-to-toe verbally with Trump on a debate stage, it's Bernie. His ability to deflect criticism and then return to his message is very strong. He had a very strong debate performance. But he embraces the socialist label. He insists on calling it "democratic socialism," but if you look it up it's not much different from plain old socialism. ... You won't let this go. They are very different. The Nordic countries are democratic socialist countries akin to what Bernie proposes. They do very well taking care of their people, they have high government satisfaction, high cultural happiness satisfaction with life. Their economies are capitalistic in general with social programs that provide for healthcare, university education, welfare, etc. "Socialism" has a broad definition and many versions, including democratic socialism and social democracy (quite different) as well as ones that lean towards communism. The major difference for democratic socialism as proposed by Bernie is that the social programs are decided democratically and employed democratically. It is government of the people, by the people and for the people, as Abraham Lincoln said. Look up FDR -- he was a democratic socialist with his programs and his proposed second bill of rights (that didn't get passed before he died). He won 4 elections, because his programs were for the people not corporations and rich people. Bernie consistently beats Trumpski in head-to-head polls by the highest margins. For those looking for electability that is a very good metric. He also has the popularity to have long coat-tails, and he supports down ticket candidates -- which is what you need to win the Senate (need only 4 seats)
Amy Klobuchar: She's a strong second for going toe-to-toe with Trump. ... A good contender for Vice President. Comes from Midwest so would attract midwest voters.
Buttigieg's clarity of message seems to be diminishing ... HE waffles and has changed positions, most notably on healthcare, which he now is against. To my mind that makes him ineluctable. To beat Trump with the purported hyped economy you need a strong issue and healthcare for all is one that polls at the top across party lines. That helped win 2018 house seats.
Elizabeth Warren: She didn't say much at the debate, but she was on the Sunday programs. I can't figure her out, or maybe it's just that I can't figure out how I feel about her. I like her, I like her intellect, I think she has knowledge and mastery of the issues, but gaffes seem to follow her around, ... Her stand on healthcare is a problem, as she hasn't really embrace full universal healthcare, and has backed away from it. Most people I know had expected her to endorse Bernie in 2016, but she waited until the end to endorse Hillary. There are many voters that will not forgive her for that. (Hillary as too much baggage) Again a possible VP candidate, but that loads the ticket with two New Englanders with no representation for other areas. Klobuchar coming from Minnesota makes a more rounded ticket, but still leaves the whole western side of America out. I think the best place for Warren is on the Supreme Court, she taught law at University of Pennsylvania Law School as a full professor and at Harvard after that. We need someone strong to replace the notorious RBG, and I think Liz is up to it.
Joe Biden: He was a non-entity in the debate. ... A DINO that needs to retire and take Hillary and Perez with him.
Tom Steyer: ... Andrew Yang: Thank you for coming. I don't see any fire that will bring out the voters. Bloomberg is also a DINO and he is trying to buy the election rather than win it. Not being in the early primaries should hurt him, so he's hoping the big delegate states will give him enough. I expect Bernie to win the primary, because of his ground campaign and dedicated supporters. Wonder what the DNC/Media will do to downplay that ... as they did to Iowa when he won there. Enjoyby our ability to understand RebelAmericanZenDeist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
We have a big post Iowa poll with 1159 registered voters polled
Buttigieg beats Trump 47 to 43 Warren 48 Trump 44 Klobuchar 49 Trump 43 Biden 50 Trump 43 Sanders 51 Trump 43 Bloomberg 51 Trump 42 Here is the best evidence yet that the more voters know of Sanders the better he does. So far for the last 5 years
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
anglagard Member (Idle past 836 days) Posts: 2339 From: Socorro, New Mexico USA Joined:
|
The current healthcare system in the United States requires at least 30,000 deaths per year due to lack of insurance coverage.
The Aztec Empire required 30,000 deaths to appease Huitzilopochtli so the sun would rise again and Tlaloc to make sure the rain continued. The modern equivalent is appeasing the health insurance industry to keep their unnecessary welfare queen jobs and the pharmaceutical industry to keep their Martin Shkreli-level profits. At least the Aztecs mainly sacrificed captives caught in battle rather than their own citizens. So who supports medicare for all rather than the new improved version of the Aztec Religion? Bernie SandersElizabeth Warren (maybe) When it comes to "Democratic centrists" just follow the money........and the body count.Read not to contradict and confute, not to believe and take for granted, not to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider. - Francis Bacon |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
anglagard Member (Idle past 836 days) Posts: 2339 From: Socorro, New Mexico USA Joined:
|
Percy writes: I have decided to vote in the Democratic primary. I don't know how I will vote tomorrow, but right now (and this could change) it's between Klobuchar and Buttigieg. Mayor Pete is the biggest phony total dirtbag politician since, well Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. i believe your media diet may need more fiber. Did you know TYT (the Young Turks) uncovered the story behind Buttegeig's demotion of the black Chief of Police due to his big buck donors insisting on white leadership of the police force? How about that police shooting of a black man under his watch and without the body cam footage afterwards? Wonder how that worked out? Oh yeah, half the black cops in the great metropolis of South Bend, Indiana left over his "leadership." This is just one example of why Buttegeig has no path to the black vote and therefore no path to the nomination. Well, one would not know this if one's media diet was solely limited to CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, Wall Street Journal, New York Times and Washington Post or whatever propaganda outlet is funded by those whose souls are traded as marketplace commodities, upper middle class twits screwing over the less financially fortunate on behalf of their billionaire masters, and therefore in general all identifiable minorities of any flavor. There is an alternative media - the aforementioned TYT, Ring of Fire, Rational National, Humanist Report, etc. and that's just utube, In print you also have Salon, Slate, Vox, Mother Jones, Daily Kos, and 'scary' Jacobin, and even Politico (which is pretty centrist), or even 528 or RCP for polling averages. I am not necessarily asking you to buy into my attitude as it is unique, just that you "weigh and consider." As to who is better - Klobuchar or Buttegieg, well if you insist, Klobuchar has a lot less baggage. Still gonna' screw over the workers in favor of that trust fund baby donation money, but at least she is honest about it.Read not to contradict and confute, not to believe and take for granted, not to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider. - Francis Bacon
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member (Idle past 738 days) Posts: 2236 Joined: |
Ipsos polled 952 from Feb 6 to 10 and both Sanders and Bloomberg got 45 while Trump got 41.
Buttigieg was tied 41 to 41 while Biden was up 44 to 42. GOOD NEWS for Buttigieg in one state however. An AtlasIntel poll has only Buttigieg beating Trump in New Hampshire. 46 to 45. All other candidates loose to Trump in New Hampshire including Sanders who is down 47 to 44. Just a few weeks ago Sanders and Buttigieg were up 8 and 10 points over Trump in New Hampshire in another poll
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 22391 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2 |
At last night's fantasy show in Manchester Trump encouraged his supporters to vote for the weakest candidate in the Democratic primary. This won't be possible for Trump supporters who are registered Republicans, which is probably most of them, since the New Hampshire primaries are semi-closed. This means that only Democrats and Independents can vote in the Democratic primary, and only Republicans and Independents can vote in the Republican primary. Republicans cannot vote in the Democratic primary and vice versa.
I'll be voting in the Democratic primary today. I've looked at the ballot and there is a long list of choices, most of whom I've never heard of:
Bernie is well known and well liked in New Hampshire. Many people here remember his time as Vermont's at-large congressional representative. We heard all the noisy Vermont controversies, but through it all Bernie's concern for the common people always shone through. If he'd just drop the socialist label I'd consider him. For me it's still between Klobuchar and Buttigieg. Decisions, decisions... --Percy Edited by Percy, : Fix Bernie's resume.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Theodoric Member Posts: 9076 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.7
|
For example.
Mayor Pete’s Health Care Plan Is a Joke His whole health care plan is a dodge and a weave. He is completely beholden to the moneyed interests and plans like this show a lack of serious policy considerations. It just does not add up and won't work. quote:And that is just the first step. Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness. If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 22391 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2 |
Here are the results of yesterday's New Hampshire Democratic primary (Trump squeaked by on the Republican side 86% to 9% for Weld):
91.3% of precincts have reported so far, but the percentages and the delegates will probably hold up pretty well. Many pundits are saying that the nomination is now Bernie's to lose. Sure, he's wildly even recklessly liberal, but if elected he's not going to get his way with Congress and so many of the items on his pet agenda would get moderated and watered down. The debates would be great entertainment because I'm betting that Sanders would have no qualms about calling Trump a pathological liar to his face. He's incapable of speaking without passion and deep belief. He's a politician because that's his nature, not because he learned the ropes. One pundit referred to Buttigieg's approach as bafflegab. I think I know what she means (https://www.washingtonpost.com/...here-has-she-been-all-year). In the last few weeks Buttigieg's pointed clarity has become more vague and diffuse, more aspirational but less detailed. Many are saying that even after Klobuchar's surprising success and rapid climb from the single digits spurred by last Friday's debate performance that she still has a very tough uphill road. She has neither the funding nor the organization. In my view she has to throw caution to wind and spend beyond her campaign's means to get what needs doing done. Warren gave a stirring speech shortly after the polls closed. If only she campaigned and interviewed as well as she speeched. That she's the second most liberal candidate in the race doesn't help either. She rejects SuperPac money, and I think PAC money, too, but whatever the details, she's determined to rely upon small donations, which is hurting her fundraising. Biden left for South Carolina in the middle of the voting. Can his campaign recover? Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet have dropped out. Deval Patrick received less than 1% of the vote and said he would think things over and have an announcement today. --Percy
|
|
|
Do Nothing Button
Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved
Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024