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Author | Topic: The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Campaign | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hyroglyphx Inactive Member
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And from a different portion of Texas than Jar lives in, we have some different early voting totals: Republican 979 Democratic 55 Yes, dear folk, Texas is weird. Border cities in Texas tend to vote Democrat... take a guess why that might be. Big cities tend to be fairly distributed with a slightly higher emphasis on Democratic voting. "Middle America" Texas is still very, very red. Austin (Travis County) is as liberal as it gets in Texas, but one county to the north (Williamson) its hardcore Republican based. Overall though Texas is not nearly as blood red as it once was.... it is quickly becoming a purple state, like Florida. On any given Sunday a democrat or a republican can win. Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given."Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine
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jar Member (Idle past 416 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
The final days tallies are out and the results are somewhat interesting. The Early Voting Totals between 2016 and 2020 are almost identical with only 374 more votes this year. But the party votes show a different story. Republican votes are down over 25% from the 2016 level while the Democratic voting remained almost identical with only a 6.5% increase. In fact the increase in Democratic votes this year is almost exactly the same as the decrease in Republican votes from 2016.
But what does that mean? Maybe in 2016 a couple thousand Democrats voted Republican to reject Hilary. Or maybe this year a couple thousand Republican voted Democratic to reject Trump. Tuesday will be the Primary and it is very likely that there will be many runoff positions before the final slate gets set.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1427 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
quote: No one else made the 15% cutoff for earned delegates. As the DNC is against Bernie the 9 unpledged delegates will likely go to Joe, rather than split 6 Joe and 3 Bernie ... Updating the previous table of delegates with the pledge delegate counts gives
1,991 needed to win nomination Are we ready for a raucous super Tuesday? California big for Bernie with a lot of early voting already inTexas likely for Bernie but not a blowout, again a lot of early voting already in southern states similar to SC likely for Joe ... will it be enough to catch Bernie? Who will drop out? Enjoy Edited by RAZD, : . Edited by RAZD, : converted to 2nd tableby our ability to understand RebelAmericanZenDeist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Chiroptera Inactive Member
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Yeah, I was planning on voting for Warren, but now there's a good chance she won't make the threshold for getting any delegates here in OK, and so my vote might be wasted.
I'm also worried that if Sanders is going to be the candidate who represents the progressive left, then my vote going to Warren and then being wasted will end up helping sap the Left of crucial momentum and help Biden. I pretty much was hoping I wouldn't be put into a position where I'd have to decide to vote strategically. On the other hand, despite the misgivings I've expressed before, Sanders is a close second choice so I don't feel as if I'm choosing between the less of two evils.The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. -- Richard Feynman
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1427 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Yeah, I was planning on voting for Warren, but now there's a good chance she won't make the threshold for getting any delegates here in OK, and so my vote might be wasted. The talking heads on MSNBC and CNN were talking about how the DNC would want Warren and Klobuchar to stay in the race to take away possible Bernie delegates so that Biden could win, specially if Steyer drops out and they can get Bloomberg to endorse Biden and convert his adds (already paid for time) to pro Biden ... Because heaven for fend we should choose a publicly popular candidate ... when they can force Biden on us. Baturds Enjoyby our ability to understand RebelAmericanZenDeist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2327 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2
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Hillary Clinton was a candidate that rode a wave of sweeping the front loaded southern primaries, the wave of favorable media commentary, and the wave of mammoth Democratic establishment support.
Biden looks like he will get southern states alone, while Hillary Clinton branched out to a fair extent. Sort of. Sanders beats Biden in Texas, Kentucky and possibly Virginia. Biden will win Delaware. Biden used to call his home state a southern state. Missouri and Oklahoma will go Biden. I imagine North Dakota might vote for Biden over the fracking issue. Despite the fracking issue, Montana could still go to Sanders. Biden looks like he might possibly win Indiana too. Don't think he wins South Dakota and Alaska, but he might. Biden gets 17 to 18 states. Sanders gets 29 to 32. I think Sanders could get as little as 47 to 49 percent of pledged delegates however. Bloomberg will not release his 3 to 4 percent of pledged delegates so Sanders will have to try to get the other 1.5 to 2 percent of non Biden pledged delegates to choose him in the first round. Round 2 will see the Supers defeat Sanders so I hope there is no round 2.
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Percy Member Posts: 22480 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
RAZD writes: ...specially if Steyer drops out... Steyer dropped out a couple days ago. --Percy
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1427 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
RAZD writes: ...specially if Steyer drops out... Steyer dropped out a couple days ago. and now Klobuchar and Butigieg Getting a lot of delegates from states that are deep red (in South Carolina Trump beat Hillary by 15%) may get you to the convention but it doesn't say squat about electability. Same for a lot of southern states that Joe is predicted to win on Tuesday. IF it goes to a brokered convention I would hope that the one that does best in blue and purple states would mean more than who does well in deep red states ... IF they truly want to win the election or prefer the (even now) status quo ... for those who have not been harmed by Trumps policies and don't care about the people. The DNC elite and DINO superdelegates don't care squat about the people. Enjoyby our ability to understand RebelAmericanZenDeist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Seems Biden had a good showing on Super Tuesday. Although once the results of California come in, I think Sanders will still have the delegate lead.
With Klobuchar and Butigieg dropping out right before Super Tuesday, that seems to have cemented the more centrist votes towards Biden. But the more left leaning votes are still being shared between Warren and Sanders. My guess is Warren will likely drop out shortly considering she didn't even win her home state of Massachusetts. Actually came in third which I think pretty much torpedoes her chances at this stage. But once she is gone, that will likely consolidate the more left leaning votes under Sanders. I'm curious how long 'Little Mike' will hang on. He's already spent $500 million of his own money at this stage. But with a net worth of around $55 billion, he has pretty deep pockets. So he can hang around for quite some time.
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coffee_addict Member (Idle past 499 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
Last time, democrats went for a centrist, Clinton. And she lost the electoral vote.
Now, democrats are going for another centrist. What makes them think it will be different this time?If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.
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jar Member (Idle past 416 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
The main Bernie base didn't go to the polls in the Primary. What evidence is there to show that the younger voters will actually vote in the election? Looking at the exit polls it looks as though less than 20% of the under 30 registered voters showed up pretty much across all states.
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coffee_addict Member (Idle past 499 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
Both husband and I are millennials. That said, my generation and the gen z'ers suck.
And let me be clear about something. We own a business and we support Sanders. Not hoping for "free stuff" here. But it's about damn time we have single payer. I don't know if Sanders will win against Trumpelthinskin, but I'm almost certain Biden will be a repeat of the Hillary Disaster of 2016.If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.
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jar Member (Idle past 416 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
But how to get the young voters to actually vote?
If even 50% of them had voted the outcome would have been entirely different. AbE: Afterall, old farts like me can weather most anything that will come up during the balance of our lifetime but it will be the fold that are say 50 and under that will get to live in the world of the Oligarchs. Edited by jar, : see AbE
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
He just announced he is suspending his campaign. Apparently, he is endorsing Biden.
quote: Michael Bloomberg ends US presidential campaign - BBC News I guess that's one way to blow $500 million.
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coffee_addict Member (Idle past 499 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
I am very very disappointed in my own crowd. Eff millennials and gen z-ers. We deserve another 4 years of the orange maniac.
If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.
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