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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 16 of 955 (871698)
02-09-2020 3:54 PM


More deaths than SARS now.
Considering the fact that this has been a relatively isolated illness, I am going to consider the 800 deaths so far to be serious though one can ask why the Flu deaths don't get the coverage they deserve.
And we don't know what else is going to come.
I hope hand washing gets the credit it deserves for stopping illnesses. I have noticed that fundamentalists have something in the way of responsibility for twisting scriptures in a way that downplays hand washing but that is another topic.

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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


(2)
Message 17 of 955 (871709)
02-09-2020 7:34 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by LamarkNewAge
02-09-2020 3:54 PM


Re: More deaths than SARS now.
Considering the fact that this has been a relatively isolated illness, I am going to consider the 800 deaths so far to be serious though one can ask why the Flu deaths don't get the coverage they deserve.
According to the CDC 80,000 people died from common, run-of-the-mill Influenza last year in the US alone and were responsible for in between 9 to 45 million cases that impacted personal lives and industry. And just like most of those deaths, Coronavirus deaths are also mostly attributed to the very young, the very old, or people with immunodeficiencies.
The problem is the speed at which it travels. While I have doubts that it will turn into a true pandemic, its still a huge problem for hundreds of reasons. We should always play it safe and err on the side of caution with these things. Its a virus after all. Just because this strain only has a death rate of 2% doesn't mean that it can't mutate into a much more deadly strain that is harder to treat and is more easily transmittable.
Edited by Adminnemooseus, : Fix quote box.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

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LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 18 of 955 (873450)
03-15-2020 5:39 PM


I wonder.
Will there be a move toward more and bigger hospitals via federal government action and funds.
What about homeless shelter policy. Will there be a move to give the homeless their own rooms. It must be understood that most homeless men live on the streets and there are not enough shelter beds or cots. What about the homeless that must be out in public all day if not all night.
Perhaps the best thing would be for all people to have the right to live outside in the grass and woods without getting a charge for trespassing by police. This would solve the homeless problem and even reduce non homeless peoples chances of becoming infected by a virus. Encourage people to stay outside and away from people.
This is all I can think of when the idea is keeping people as far from each others viruses.
I hope Sanders and de Blasio can show how much the healthcare paywalls contribute to the public health crisis that can never be ignored again. Biden's best efforts aside.

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


(2)
Message 19 of 955 (873451)
03-15-2020 6:13 PM


Keeping it in perspective
I think this man's testimony is absolutely spot on in terms of the reality of the situation. I certainly don't believe this pandemic to be some kind of existential threat to humanity, but I do agree that this will get much worse before it gets better. Ebola, MERS, Sars, Avian Flu.... those were child's play compared what this has become and is yet to become. Having said that, people really need to stop freaking out and stripping grocery stores clean of all supplies.
This is a measured perspective and worth the 15 minutes.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

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LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


(1)
Message 20 of 955 (873472)
03-15-2020 10:59 PM
Reply to: Message 19 by Hyroglyphx
03-15-2020 6:13 PM


Re: Keeping it in perspective
Only 33 dead American residents have age known to date. 1 was in 40s and 2 were in 50s.
30 were over 60.
I remember back when Italy had only 105 deaths and none were under 50. I remember the average person dead then was 81.
Now our average dead seem to be 81 too.
Italy is now loosing over 200 people a day.
The disease is around 3 to 5 percent fatal so far it seems but probably over 10 percent if you are over 59 ,so that is bad.
And credible authorities say that eventually 75 to 150 million Americans will become infected with the virus if trends continue.
We could possibly see about 5 percent of older people succumb to this virus.
I don't blame elderly people for being really scared.

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coffee_addict
Member (Idle past 477 days)
Posts: 3645
From: Indianapolis, IN
Joined: 03-29-2004


(1)
Message 21 of 955 (873473)
03-16-2020 12:09 AM


This thread is a perfect example of the logical fallacy I recently identified that doesn't have an official name yet so I'm calling it the Y2K Fallacy. I first talked about this fallacy in message 468 of the following thread. You can follow other people's comments to it.
EvC Forum: Quick Questions, Short Answers - No Debate
This virus has a death rate of about 20 times more than the flu, which kills about 70,000 people each year. If allowed to spread like the regular flu, it would be 70,000 x 20 people dead each year.
The only reason we haven't seen that many people dead from this virus yet is because world governments have taken huge steps to contain it.
No one has said that this virus poses an existential threat to us. That said, it has the potential to kill 70,000 x 20 people each year if allowed to spread freely like the common flu.

If you say the word "gullible" slowly, it sounds like oranges. Go ahead and try it.

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Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 22 of 955 (873479)
03-16-2020 3:45 AM
Reply to: Message 21 by coffee_addict
03-16-2020 12:09 AM


Lammy writes:
If allowed to spread like the regular flu, it would be 70,000 x 20 people dead each year.
You are forgetting that this is a new virus which, unlike the flu virus, there is no immunity to either from prior infection or vaccination. So the entire global population is available to it not just a proportion of it.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

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jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 23 of 955 (873485)
03-16-2020 8:33 AM
Reply to: Message 22 by Tangle
03-16-2020 3:45 AM


pan---demics; or let's share!
IIRC from my 6th grade history classes the Americas did get to experience the introduction of new virus threats in a big way once or twice. But then we also got to introduce Europe to the "Spanish Disease" which is not quite the same as the Spanish Flu.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

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Faith 
Suspended Member (Idle past 1444 days)
Posts: 35298
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001


Message 24 of 955 (873486)
03-16-2020 9:13 AM
Reply to: Message 19 by Hyroglyphx
03-15-2020 6:13 PM


Re: Keeping it in perspective
That guy is pretty credible. I've passed on the video to some email contacts and said I think they should pass it on to their lists.

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Faith 
Suspended Member (Idle past 1444 days)
Posts: 35298
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001


(2)
Message 25 of 955 (873499)
03-16-2020 11:54 AM


Maybe anone who watches the first video, from Feb 5, will also watch the second, but I want to post it just in case. This is very recent and he's talking about practical things we can do in this one.
.
.

  
Stile
Member
Posts: 4295
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004


Message 26 of 955 (873554)
03-17-2020 8:42 AM


A quote from Message 5450 in thread The Right Side of the News:
Percy writes:
This morning I listened to a horror story on BBC as their financial program gathered stories from correspondents across the EU describing how life has been affected. They described the difficulties people and businesses are facing and will face in the coming months. It was mentioned that airlines are only weeks away from bankruptcy. Will airlines survive? Without airlines can airports, the airlines essential partner, survive? What will be the impact on the railroad industry and trucking?
Transportation infrastructure is essential for the movement of people and goods, but during this period of restricted movement it is the transportation of goods that is most essential. While we lockdown in place we must still be able to buy food and essential products at the grocery and home supply stores.
People in many industries are already being laid off. Bars and restaurants are the most common example, and as airlines reduce scheduling by around 80% the retail stores in airports will be shutting down and laying off employees. How will those suddenly without jobs afford their rents and mortgages? Bankruptcies of both people and businesses will not be far behind. How will the banking industry withstand the onslaught of bankruptcies?
Some businesses are being compassionate at the moment. The Boston Celtics, the local basketball team, has announced that employees will continue to be paid through the end of the season, but the people who man the food and concession stands at the Boston Garden (the arena is called the Garden) are not employees of the Celtics.
I could go on, but I'll stop. Is this a worst case scenario? I don't know. It is the scenario I imagined but only alluded to in my Message 5319, written about a week ago just after the WHO declared a world pandemic. This is quickly sprinting past just a major health concern to become a world wide economic disaster affecting life very severely in the short term and very significantly for years to come in the longer term.
It is appropriate to ask whether this lockdown is worse than the resulting economic disaster. What if government, instead of a lockdown, put its full force and power behind the production and distribution of masks, gloves and effective sanitizer? Would that approach cause ten thousand more deaths? A hundred thousand? A million? More? Would an overburdened health industry result in even more deaths of people unaffected by the coronavirus but unable to obtain the necessary care? And on the other hand, how many deaths will economic depression for years cause?
I don't have the answers, but I do hope that those at all levels of government and business who are not up to the demands of this crisis move aside to allow the most competent, the experts, to handle things.
How long will this last? I don't know, but Major League Baseball is talking about a June resumption. I hope that's not optimistic.
--Percy
This is the same sort of thing I'm worried about.
Let's say some large place (city? state? country?) goes into "lockdown" successfully.
Let's say that lockdown lasted... 2 months? 3?
It was "successful" because something like 'no known cases of the virus came up in the last few weeks' or something like that.
Then what?
Re-open the borders?
Allow all the people to mingle and travel all over again as before?
What if the virus starts spreading again and more cases come up in the same 'large place?'
Does it shut down for another 2-3 months?
Will this cycle continue? For years? Decades? Forever?
I suppose the only solution is to "move forward" with such worries in mind and deal with them as they come up.
2020 will be an interesting year we've (human population across earth) been forced into.
Hopefully we're able to adapt as quickly as possible.

  
Faith 
Suspended Member (Idle past 1444 days)
Posts: 35298
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001


Message 27 of 955 (873566)
03-17-2020 10:20 AM


Advice for dealing with the virus, and a possible antiviral aid?
Happy St. Patrick's Day by the way. Might as well start out with that. I gained a respect for the man some years ago when I read a biographical novel about him and wrote a post about it at my blog.
But my subject at the moment is something else. I've been collecting information about this pandemic, specifically advice about what can all do to protect ourselves and others, which of course includes all the standard advice about washing and avoiding contact with people and so on. The expert in the videos above says we don't even have to sneeze to spread the virus, all we have to do is breathe, and that it remains in the air the way the motes we see in the sunlight coming through a window remain in the air. And it has many times the impact of the flu as well as twice the contagion. Something that we really should be treating with great care of all kinds.
VITAMINS FOR THE IMMUNE SYSTEM
One bit of advice I found was to take the vitamins that strengthen the immune system, such as megadoses of vitamin C. Vitamin A was also mentioned but as I understand it smokers and former smokers should not take that because it is known to cause lung cancer. Natural beta carotene from carrots is OK though, and carrot juice is a way to get a concentrated form of it. Another on the list is zinc, and that's all I've collected so far. I think D3 should probably also be added but I haven't read up on that for this purpose.
COCONUT OIL AS AN ANTIVIRAL AGENT
Another thing I considered was coconut oil, which is a favorite of alternative health zealots to replace other kinds of fats in our diet. I've been keeping it myself for many purposes including putting it on my face and hands as a moisturizer. I get seborrhea, otherwise known as dandruff, on my face, which I used to scrub off with something called a BuffPuff until I discovered that coconut oil removes it.
I vaguely remembered that coconut oil is known for its antibacterial properties and wondered if it would have any effectiveness against a virus, as soap does. And lo and behold it is reported to have antiviral as well as antibacterial and antifungal properties. Happy was I to discover this as that means it can help keep hands and face clean of the virus. How well it works I don't know and I also don't know how far to believe what these health sites say about it, but I do accept that it must have some benefits in that direction.
So reading through one of the sites I see it mentioned that it can help with cold sores too. EVEN IF TAKEN INTERNALLY. Hm. Really? Cuz when I was reading up on how soap kills the virus I wished we could eat soap and kill it internally as well as on the skin.
If eating coconut oil really can kill the herpes virus that causes cold sores am I being nutty to think it might help with this new virus if we eat it? Too much to hope, but worth some thought?
Soap kills the virus by breaking its lipid/fatty shield or something like that. I'm not going to look it up again right now but I think that's what I read. Not all viruses have this fatty element but this covid19 does, and soap can break it, effectively killing the virus.
SO IF COCONUT OIL CAN CURE COLD SORES IN THE SAME WAY, BY BREAKING THE FATTY SHIELD OF THE VIRUS, AND SINCE COCONUT OIL IS EDIBLE, COULDN'T EATING IT HELP WITH THIS CORONAVIRUS? COULD SUCH A HOMELY INGREDIENT ACTUALLY BE HELPFUL? I'm almost afraid to think it could but it seems to make sense.
So, CALLING ALL EVC SCIENTIST TYPES. COULD THERE BE SOMETHING TO THIS?
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.

Replies to this message:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 28 of 955 (873568)
03-17-2020 11:06 AM


A Question About Masks
Everything I read on the Internet about masks discourages their use. They say that only a specialized mask called the N95 respirator (difficult to breath through) can protect against the coronavirus. Normal masks do not protect against viruses because viruses are much smaller than bacteria. An N95 mask is difficult to properly put on, removing it takes great care so that you don't touch any virus that might be on its surface, and it must be properly disposed of.
Instead of a mask they suggest frequently using an alcohol based hand sanitizer or washing your hands with soap and water. Don't touch your face. They say a mask is only necessary if you're caring for a known infected person.
I think this advice is wrong. The advice assumes that the primary means of transmission happens because infected people breath virus into the air which become deposited on surfaces that are then touched by people's hands who then touch their face and themselves become infected.
But virus breathed into the air can remain suspended in the air for hours. Yes, it does gradually become deposited on surfaces where it can survive for a couple hours to a couple days, as reported by NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/...ading-crisis-n1157551/ncrd1157991):
quote:
A preliminary study published this week found the virus could be detected in the air for up to three hours after it was aerosolized with a nebulizer, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel. The newest research, which has not yet been peer reviewed, was conducted by scientists at the National Institutes of Health, Princeton University, the University of California and the CDC.
But if the virus can survive in the air for up to three hours then people can breath it in, and therefore an N95 mask can be effective. Very effective.
That's my reasoning, yet everything I read says masks don't do much good. Why am I wrong?
--Percy

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jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 29 of 955 (873574)
03-17-2020 11:17 AM
Reply to: Message 28 by Percy
03-17-2020 11:06 AM


Re: A Question About Masks
The N95 mask can be effective. The silly little prayer hankies being sold though are not an N95 mask. If a virus is smaller than the pores in the mask then the mask will not do much good.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

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Faith 
Suspended Member (Idle past 1444 days)
Posts: 35298
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001


Message 30 of 955 (873584)
03-17-2020 11:31 AM
Reply to: Message 28 by Percy
03-17-2020 11:06 AM


Re: A Question About Masks
Sounds like it would work if you wore it all the time and took the precautions of not touching it as they suggest, but always wear one, replace them etc. But whenever you take it off you'll be exposed to whatever is in the air wherever you are, and still of course exposed to whatever is on the surfaces around you. If you also clean everything avidly maybe you'll conquer the problem. But if you take the mask off around anyone else and breathe their air without knowing if they are infected or not, and they may not know themselves, and that includes family members, what good has the mask done you?

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