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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Percy
Member
Posts: 22389
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 121 of 955 (873944)
03-21-2020 4:12 PM


Today's Coronavirus Task Force Briefing
President Trump and the Coronavirus Task Force are at this moment holding a press briefing, and I've been listening in:
President Trump spoke first. He mentioned many things that the administration is doing, among them ramping up mask production into the millions, suspension of interest and payments for federally held student loans, and working with Congress to pass an aid and stimulus package that will include aid for small businesses with passage currently targeted for Monday. He mentioned many other things, so those wanting more detail should either listen to the video or read a news article later. There was a lot of "this has never been done before" and "this has never been seen before" and "this is the first time" and "there has never been a thing like this in the history of the word" (the black death comes to mind) and "this is unprecedented" and "no one thought this could happen" and so forth.
Vice-president Pence spoke next. We are making progress against the 15 day plan that began 6 days ago. A person on his staff that he had had no contact with tested positive a day ago, but in the interests of an abundance of caution the vice-president and his wife will be tested later this afternoon.
Admiral Brett Giroir of the USPHS (United States Public Health Service) spoke next. His graph showed how the total number of tests (including results) has reached 190,000 as of yesterday, and over 50,000 tests in just the last two days alone, which means that the rate of testing is growing exponentially. He described who should be tested.
Dr. Fauci spoke next. Mitigation intensity will vary geographically according to need, and California and New York City were mentioned as regions where greater mitigation is required. Unnecessary testing must be avoided at all costs because it consumes precious PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) resources such as gloves, masks and gowns, not to mention the test itself. All elective medical and surgical procedures should be cancelled.
Pete Gaynor, the director of FEMA, spoke next. FEMA is now leading the federal response for all operations of the task force. HHS (Health and Human Services) will continue to provide their expertise on health. His message was a bit breathlessly delivered and hence a bit hard to understand, but I believe he said that FEMA in cooperation with HHS would be coordinating the delivery of services to the entire country, including territories and reservations. He said to buy medical supplies wherever they can be found and that the purchases were reimbursable, but I assume this portion was addressed to medical facilities and not to the public. The process he described did not sound like one that can move quickly because requests for medical equipment from the local level should first go to the states, from states to the local FEMA offices, and from there to the national FEMA offices in DC. He said response is most effective when it is locally executed, state supported and federally funded.
Ben Carson, secretary of HUD (Housing and Urban Development), spoke next. The president has authorized the cessation of foreclosure and eviction proceedings, I think for 60 days. Carson may only have been talking about FHA loans, because he said it covered 8.5 million people, and more people than that have mortgages. HUD does not have the authority to mandate that evictions cannot occur, but they're in contact with all the PHAs (Public Housing Authorities) across the country, and they're petitioning Congress for power to forbid evictions. He didn't explain how private owners of rental properties were involved. Reporting requirement deadlines have been pushed back to April 30th.
The Q/A portion was next, with various people answering.
In answering a question the president said that he wanted to preserve business and industry during the crisis so that economic activity can ramp up quickly when this is over. He ruled out allowing companies receiving federal assistance to use it for stock buybacks.
Pence said that FEMA has just executed a half billion dollar purchase of masks. Coincidentally it was reported yesterday that the federal government had submitted a purchase order for a half billion masks, so it's possible Pence misspoke.
Pence also said that HHS was fully integrated into FEMA, which I think could be another misspeak since that would be a reorganization requiring congressional approval.
Trump criticized throwing away masks after a single use, which has been standard medical practice for decades and decades and possibly for more than a century. Infection used to be a bigger killer of patients and armies than disease and injury - the practice has a solid foundation. Trump wants to sanitize masks. Fauci said there are guidelines for if and when such practices are possible. Masks, gloves and gowns have to be discarded after seeing each potentially infected patient, for obvious reasons.
Don't expect industrial versions of the N95 mask (which are just as good as surgical N95 masks but lacking insurance for that purpose, but the coming legislation is expected to provide that coverage federally until 2024) to be available at Home Depot and Lowes anytime soon, because they're being supplied to medical facilities.
In response to a question from CNN about the three or four months it took for the administration to begin it's response Trump claimed to have shut the country down very early, but that CNN didn't report it, and that the shutdown had saved more than 10,000 lives. Anyone who recalls Trump shutting the country down very early please post a reply to this message with accompanying evidence. Somehow I missed it, along with everyone else.
Dr. Fauci said that he hopes that the PPE shortage problem will be solved in days rather than weeks. We'll know if they were successful if next week we can finally buy masks again.
The president misspoke when he referred to the 1918 pandemic as 1917, evidently confusing it with the recent movie.
Dr. Fauci was visibly squirming in the background as the president responded to a question about using an anti-malarial drug.
The president complained at length about his coverage in the Washington Post, calling it unfair and inaccurate, then took a shot at sleepy Joe Biden. He claimed again that he acted early when he banned travel from China and later Europe.
Responding to another question the president said that his administration did not know about the growing coronavirus epidemic in China until they started seeing public news reports. This contradicts recent stories in the press that his own intelligence services began issuing warnings about the epidemic back in January and on into February. The president closed down travel with China on January 31, but airlines had already begun screening passengers from Wuhan, China, more than a week earlier.
I'm going to skip the remaining 20 minutes of the press conference, I've got things to do.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22389
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 122 of 955 (873945)
03-21-2020 4:14 PM
Reply to: Message 118 by Faith
03-21-2020 2:36 PM


Re: Reasons for the shortage of medical supplies
Faith writes:
I have been hearing...
Please cite a source.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 118 by Faith, posted 03-21-2020 2:36 PM Faith has not replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 123 of 955 (873948)
03-21-2020 5:59 PM
Reply to: Message 116 by Percy
03-21-2020 11:21 AM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
Prophylactic measures are not just to protect oneself but also to prevent one from becoming an inadvertent vector during the early infectious stage when no symptoms or only mild symptoms are apparent.
The only responsible step would be suicide, to ensure you are not capable of functioning as a disease vector at any time in the future. I was going to suggest that you merely leave the house rigged to burn down after you'd killed yourself painlessly but, since we're adopting the standard that any non-zero risk is fundamentally unacceptable; you're going to have to stay alive until the place is substantially aflame; lest your set-up fail and you potentially leave behind a corpse and surfaces upon which you had breathed not sterilised by the flames.
Masks are very difficult to come by in the US. This is typical:
We don't have any either, this is a global issue. Much of the shortage making it harder for the professionals who need masks to get them is, of course, the result of their waste by paranoid individuals convinced they need to take extreme measures to avoid the coronaplague at all costs.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 116 by Percy, posted 03-21-2020 11:21 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


(1)
Message 124 of 955 (873951)
03-21-2020 6:41 PM


To get back to basics, this is a new virus which H.sapiens have no immunity to. This means that all of us are likely to get it eventually - without intervention.
Here we are being told that 60% will get in the next 12 months and 80% eventually. The question is really about timing. Ideally I would have got it a week or so ago so that if I needed hospital care I'd get it.
Alternatively, I'd go for about 6 months hence when we'd have hit and gone beyond the peak, beds and ventilators are available again and some drugs have been found to be effective. After that it's another 6-12 months hoping for the vaccine.
So, given that option one has already been missed and I have to live my life, I'd go for reasonable and pragmatic precautions and hope for a bit of luck. Getting it is almost certain, getting life threatening symptoms is more unlikely than not getting it at all. We need luck part more than the chance of not getting it and we need the good timing part probably more than either.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 737 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 125 of 955 (873954)
03-21-2020 8:41 PM


Italy losy 793 Saturday. This shoots a hole in the peak theory we all are hoping for
This means we all are in for a grim existence. You and I are going to be miserable and fearful while wanting a good story on rapid and promising vaccine development news to be actually reflective of what happens.
The only ray of sunshine is perhaps we will all see how full of crap the militarists and the political class have been when they distracted us from the REAL THREATS and sapped our resources without mercy.
We are now in the midst of what we all should have been spending our resources on trying to prevent AND significantly mitigate with proper preparation.
It is about as much of a political class failure as there could possibly be and we are just beginning the period of consequence.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22389
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 126 of 955 (873955)
03-21-2020 8:48 PM


More Coronavirus Information
A couple recent articles are informative. Italy, Pandemic’s New Epicenter, Has Lessons for the World - The New York Times describes Italy's lesson in how not to contain the virus. Now with more than 53,000 infected and nearly 5000 dead Italy is learning how better to deal with the virus, as seen in this image from the top of the article showing medical workers in protective gear. Obviously their firsthand experience has left them really, really, really determined to not become infected:
Another informative article is What Does Coronavirus Do to the Body? - The New York Times, which makes clear why half-hearted or even worse minimal approaches, under the guise that most will catch it anyway, isn't a good option. Insufficient mitigation might overwhelm the medical system of most any nation, leaving inadequate resources to deal with any illness, not just coronavirus, with the result that many, many more could die.
Our increasing experience with the virus is also revealing that it isn't just the old and/or vulnerable who can suffer poor outcomes, because a surprising number of deaths are occurring in the 20-54 age group. A mortality rate of 2%-3% is pretty high, and while 80% of those infected suffer only mild symptoms, 20% experience severe enough symptoms to spend some time on a ventilator, while around 6% will be critical and spend several weeks on a ventilator.
Some will experience permanent health consequences, such as permanent lung damage. The virus can also attack other organs such as the heart, kidney and liver. It isn't yet known whether it can attack the brain. Other damage can result as the immune system attacks its own body while fighting wildly against the virus.
Concern should be both for oneself and for the people one might infect. Yes, you could be one of those who experience the most likely outcome of mild symptoms, but even if you are you could end up infecting someone who isn't so lucky. Individuals working as hard as possible to avoid infection is the best the world can hope for if we're to avoid tens of millions of deaths.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 138 by caffeine, posted 03-23-2020 4:42 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22389
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 127 of 955 (873962)
03-22-2020 9:04 AM


The Road Hopefully Less and Less Traveled
Many people are taking an alternative approach to the coronavirus pandemic, as described in Deniers and Disbelievers: ‘If I Get Corona, I Get Corona.’ - The New York Times. Here's Bourbon Street on March 14:
This is Clearwater Beach, Florida, on March 18:
Union Square Farmers Market in Manhattan on March 14:
Audubon Park in New Orleans on March 18:
Clearwater, Florida, again, on March 19:
A wedding in Brooklyn:
Waterwall Park in Houston on March 15:
There are three groups: defiers who refuse to follow health advisories, disbelievers who don't believe there's a pandemic, and fatalists who say everyone has to die of something.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22389
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 128 of 955 (873963)
03-22-2020 9:52 AM


About masks, some examples of extraordinarily bad advice
Masks don’t help, but tossing salt over the shoulder? Why people want to believe. says that experts tell us that masks are ineffective. Strangely, they're effective for medical professionals, but not for anyone else.
She also claims removal is a danger. You know what the instructions are for removal? It's a single sentence. Tilt the head forward, grasp the straps in the back, pull to the sides, then pull over the head. That's it. A child could do it.
She mentions that someone might touch the front of the mask, pick up coronavirus particles on their hand, then touch their face. This is possible, of course, but also easily avoided. It also means she understands that there could be sufficient coronavirus in the air to accumulate to infectious levels on the mask, which means that if the mask weren't there that the virus would have been breathed in.
Her advice is nonsense and comes from people she thinks are experts, such as our surgeon general, as described in Surgeon General Urges the Public to Stop Buying Face Masks - The New York Times. Jerome Adams repeats the same advice. But under his watch the United States suffered 80,000 flu deaths in 2017, the most in four decades. There's nothing in his background to suggest he's not qualified for the role, but he's a Trump appointee, which puts his competence under a cloud of suspicion since the primary Trump administration qualification is loyalty.
Adams's claim that masks are ineffective for the public while at the same time being effective for health care providers is obviously suspect. This claim seems primarily motivated by his goal to make masks more available to healthcare professionals, which is as it should be, but it is a different argument to say that the masks are ineffective for the public.
Governments and Companies Race to Make Masks Vital to Virus Fight - The New York Times is another misleading article, repeating the advice that N95 masks are "of limited use in keeping healthy people from getting infected. Doctors treating infected patients need the special N-95 masks, which can filter out the virus."
This is contradictory. A doctor seeing a suspected coronavirus patient in an examination room obviously needs a mask, but so does a member of the public walking by 150 people, any one of whom could possibly be infected, in the course of grocery shopping.
it has been found that people in the first five days of contagion shed coronavirus at a prodigious rate while often having little or no symptoms. While walking through a grocery store their exhalations will enter the air and eventually settle on food packaging, or in the case of fruit and vegetables, on the food itself.
Protect yourself. Wear a mask, whether it be a real one, a homemade one, or just a scarf. You'll not only protect yourself from infection but also others you might infect. Your groceries, your mail, your takeout deliveries, your Amazon deliveries, any of them could be coated with coronavirus. Do not take them into your house without waiting 48 hours or spraying down with at least 70% isopropyl alcohol.
Here's a video of spring break revelers:
How many do you think will be visiting grandparents soon or have grandparents living at home or even live with their grandparents. How many have professors in a vulnerable age group or with compromised health?
We all have a responsibility to be safe out there, if not for our own sake than for others.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Grammar.
Edited by Percy, : Spelling.
Edited by Percy, : Grammar.

Replies to this message:
 Message 129 by Chiroptera, posted 03-22-2020 10:56 AM Percy has replied

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 129 of 955 (873964)
03-22-2020 10:56 AM
Reply to: Message 128 by Percy
03-22-2020 9:52 AM


Re: About masks, some examples of extraordinarily bad advice
Your groceries, your mail, your takeout deliveries, your Amazon deliveries, any of them could be coated with coronavirus.
Actually, I'm more concerned is the health and safety of the workers at the shipping warehouses.
There are some very non-essential items I've been meaning to order. But is it ethical? Would I be contributing to the exploitation of vulernable workers who need the job? Or would I be helping people who can't go without the paycheck?
Thoughts, anyone?
Added by edit:
I should add that the online venders I use most often are themselves small businesses that will be probably seriously hurt by a total shut down.
Edited by Chiroptera, : No reason given.

But [Frederick] Douglass was not gone; he was merely dead. -- David W. Blight

This message is a reply to:
 Message 128 by Percy, posted 03-22-2020 9:52 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 130 by AZPaul3, posted 03-22-2020 11:26 AM Chiroptera has seen this message but not replied
 Message 131 by Percy, posted 03-22-2020 1:38 PM Chiroptera has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 130 of 955 (873965)
03-22-2020 11:26 AM
Reply to: Message 129 by Chiroptera
03-22-2020 10:56 AM


Re: About masks, some examples of extraordinarily bad advice
That's a tough one.
Well, you did ask, so ...
In the working age demographic, whatever that is, COVID-19 will present mild to moderate symptoms for the majority of those who get infected. I’m pretty sure they would rather be exposed, and maybe catch a dose that puts them down for a few days, than lose their only means of income. If sick days are available if needed and quitting is not an option then being at work when not sick is a no-brainer. But that doesn’t help much if there is no job there because Chiroptera and AZPaul3 and a few million others have dropped out of the marketplace.
Those workers who are not sick, the vast majority of them, have no employment without you.
They can always practice social-distancing and take other precautions to minimize infecting others, and themselves, while in public.
I would say, Order away.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 129 by Chiroptera, posted 03-22-2020 10:56 AM Chiroptera has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22389
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 131 of 955 (873967)
03-22-2020 1:38 PM
Reply to: Message 129 by Chiroptera
03-22-2020 10:56 AM


Re: About masks, some examples of extraordinarily bad advice
Chiroptera writes:
There are some very non-essential items I've been meaning to order. But is it ethical? Would I be contributing to the exploitation of vulnerable workers who need the job? Or would I be helping people who can't go without the paycheck?
This can't be answered without knowing what protective measure they're taking, but Close to 40% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the U.S. are aged 20 to 54: report - National | Globalnews.ca. In my view unless they're taking extreme safety measures that assume their workplace is saturated with CV then they should not be working, but how would you know whether they're taking extreme safety measures or not?
Many do not agree that extreme safety measures are necessary (masks, gloves, showers and washing of clothes upon return home, sanitizing car interior, etc.), but I think they're making the mistake of thinking the only threat is someone experiencing symptoms. CV can live upon the type of plastic used in much food and product packaging for up to 72 hours, and up to 24 hours on cardboard (see https://www.sciencedaily.com/...ses/2020/03/200320192755.htm). People can be very contagious for several days before they display symptoms.
I ordered a small item from Amazon yesterday, and it didn't occur to me to think about worker safety, but https://www.cnbc.com/...rus-safety-at-amazon-warehouses.html. It says he's working hard to get masks for those who cannot work from home but that they don't have them yet. It's nice to see that someone besides me thinks masks are important for everyone, not just medical workers. I encourage you to read the article. While it doesn't provide hard answers, it's raising the same issues you are.
I just got a calendar notice that I can bring in the groceries I purchased on Friday from the garage. And my shoes, too. My wife is out delivering masks she made (she's a quilter, she found a pattern on-line and ripped off 12 in no time - not N95 but using a tight thread fabric on the outside and way better than nothing) to the locally designated center for such things (the elementary school). I assume the place will not be crowded like a grocery store and that she won't be there very long, but when she returns we'll take measures appropriate to the number of people she encountered, the types of things she touched, and whether she was indoors or outdoors.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 132 of 955 (873970)
03-22-2020 6:43 PM


Accurate mapping
This website is run by John's Hopkins University and updates new cases as they come in
ArcGIS Dashboards Classic
If the current trend continues at the same pace of the compounding effect we're seeing now, estimates are that 56% Americans, alone, will contract the virus... never mind the rest of the world.
Was watching a Netflix movie last night called "Pandemic" that ironically was released in early 2020. Pretty much all of the concerns they shared a literally manifesting before our eyes.... and the constant theme was "not if, but when." They now know the "when."
Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22389
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 133 of 955 (873971)
03-22-2020 7:08 PM


FEMA Director Refuses to be Nailed Down
I've just started watching the Sunday morning programs. On ABC's This Week Martha Raditz is interviewing acting FEMA head Peter Gaynor, who stated that 600 million masks had been ordered and that they were shipping masks from the stockpile to the states everyday. This is the first I've heard of any stockpile of surgical masks and I'm not sure I believe any such thing exists.
Raditz repeatedly asked specific questions about how many masks were shipping and where they were shipping to, each time coming at the question differently, and Gaynor could only repeat that many masks were shipping to the states every day.
Given this performance of ignorance it isn't clear why Garnor is on the president's coronavirus task force unless it's because of loyalty to the president. We can only hope that the people under him are competent and doing what needs to be done.
--Percy
AbE: Two other people on the program have now mentioned the stockpile, so I guess it must exist.
Edited by Percy, : AbE.

Replies to this message:
 Message 135 by AZPaul3, posted 03-22-2020 8:24 PM Percy has replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5930
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.8


Message 134 of 955 (873975)
03-22-2020 8:22 PM
Reply to: Message 131 by Percy
03-22-2020 1:38 PM


Re: About masks, some examples of extraordinarily bad advice
Just a random thought, not to be taken too seriously.
The basis of vaccines tend to be based on exposure to dead virii or greatly weakened virii which in turn trigger our immune systems to learn about those virii and produce antibodies against them. As I understand it, serum from a previously infected individual which thus contain antibodies could also be used -- please take into account the effects of fictional accounts about pandemics.
So if the virus can survive on surfaces for a particular period of time, at the end of which they die (become inert, whatever), then what would happen to someone who became infected through contact by a dead or nearly dead virus? Might they not gain immunity through that contact?
 
Just a random thought. But novels and movies have depended on such possibilities, though mostly as a deus ex machina device (ie, an omnipotent being, such as a god or a king ruling under Divine Right, suddenly steps in to correct an otherwise impossibly disasterous situation).
For example, there's Michael Crichton's 1969 novel, The Andromeda Strain (he had written a few before that one, but this one is what made him famous). The "deus ex machina" solution in that story was a well-known fact about the evolution of viral diseases. When a viral disease first appears, it is very virulent because the population has no defenses against it and so it spreads ... virally. Strictly Darwinian, a virus relies on a living host that is able to infect the most other individuals before killing its host. The more virulent a virus is (eg, the quicker it kills its host or exhibits symptoms of the disease), the fewer new victims it can infect. The less that it kills its victims and the slower that it shows symptoms the more it can spread. Thus Darwinian selective pressure tends to reduce a virulent deadly virus to a seasonal nuisance.
I've seen a reverse analysis. I seem to recall that it was syphilis that was a fairly casual disease in the Caribbean spread through skin contact. But once it entered the European community with a lacked lack of skin-to-skin contact except during sex it evolved into a much more virulent disease.
 
Just some random thoughts to throw out there. Pearls before those who think in evolutionary terms. Pearls before swine for the others.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 131 by Percy, posted 03-22-2020 1:38 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 135 of 955 (873976)
03-22-2020 8:24 PM
Reply to: Message 133 by Percy
03-22-2020 7:08 PM


Re: FEMA Director Refuses to be Nailed Down
AbE: Two other people on the program have now mentioned the stockpile, so I guess it must exist.
It's real.
The U.S. Medical Stockpile Can't Solve The Coronavirus Crisis : Shots - Health News : NPR

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 133 by Percy, posted 03-22-2020 7:08 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 136 by jar, posted 03-22-2020 9:19 PM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 148 by Percy, posted 03-23-2020 10:53 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
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