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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 136 of 955 (873979)
03-22-2020 9:19 PM
Reply to: Message 135 by AZPaul3
03-22-2020 8:24 PM


Re: FEMA Director Refuses to be Nailed Down
And who was the President that directed the creation of that stockpile?
Since the stockpile idea was championed by Hilary and implemented under Bill I imagine Trump will be annoucing how we owe a major debt to Bill & Hilary.
Edited by jar, : No reason given.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

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 Message 135 by AZPaul3, posted 03-22-2020 8:24 PM AZPaul3 has replied

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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 137 of 955 (873980)
03-23-2020 1:08 AM
Reply to: Message 136 by jar
03-22-2020 9:19 PM


Re: FEMA Director Refuses to be Nailed Down
Don't suppose they have a few million rolls of toilet paper in the stockpile.

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 136 by jar, posted 03-22-2020 9:19 PM jar has not replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(2)
Message 138 of 955 (873984)
03-23-2020 4:42 AM
Reply to: Message 126 by Percy
03-21-2020 8:48 PM


Re: More Coronavirus Information
A mortality rate of 2%-3% is pretty high, and while 80% of those infected suffer only mild symptoms, 20% experience severe enough symptoms to spend some time on a ventilator, while around 6% will be critical and spend several weeks on a ventilator.
This is all false, you're continuing to misrepresent the figures. The numbers you're looking at are not percentages of the number of people infected. They are percentages of confirmed cases.
This is obviously only a subset of the total number infected, and it's a subset biased towards those with serious symptoms.
The total number of tests performed in the entirety of Italy is equivalent to only about 15% of the population of Milan alone. I think some of that number would represent the same individuals being tested twice, so the total number of people tested is even lower.
If the disease is as contagious as you suggest, then the number of infected must be significantly higher than the number of confirmed cases, potentially orders of magnitude higher. In which case, the percentage of those suffering severe symptoms could be orders of magnitude lower than those presented above.

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Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 139 of 955 (873987)
03-23-2020 7:36 AM


Why you can't reuse an N95 mask, and how you can
A significant portion of N95 mask effectiveness is the static charge it carries. Washing an N95 mask in soap and water destroys the static charge, contributes significant wear and tear, and reduces effectiveness by about 25%. Soaking in isopropyl alcohol also destroys the static charge and reduces effectiveness against .3 micron particles by 37% but against.05 micron particles hardly at all, which seems contradictory. I read these figures last night, I can probably dig out the source if anyone thinks it important.
But there's another approach to freeing N95 masks of coronavirus: time. If coronavirus can persist on cardboard for about 24 hours, and if an N95 mask is comparable to cardboard, then letting an N95 mask sit for 24 hours should free it of coronavirus while maintaining its effectiveness. This is the approach I am taking. When I returned from the grocery store on Friday I left the N95 mask with the groceries for 48 hours. I will reuse the mask the next time I go out.
Is this an approach the medical community could use? I'm not sure. A doctor or nurse who sees 50 suspected cases of coronavirus a day would need 50 masks. Where would they keep them for a day?
I have assumed they need a new mask (and scrubs and gloves and a wash down) for each patient in order to avoid possibly exposing a series of patients to the virus, perhaps someone in the medical community can confirm if this is so. The reasoning behind this assumption is that if coronavirus is deposited on the mask's outer surface while inhaling then the coronavirus must be blown out into the room while exhaling.
The general advice I've seen online for medical professionals about N95 masks is to wear them for around four hours or until they become moist, but as I said, that is general advice, not pandemic level advice.
There are around five million medical professionals in the country. If on average they each needed only a couple or three masks a day under normal circumstances then the country's normal usage rate for N95 masks would be around 10 to 15 million per day, and a little more for private use. Since we're quickly running out of masks, usage must have gone way up, and my guess is that it is because doctors and nurses are changing out their masks after each patient. But again, it would be good to confirm if this is so.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Grammar.

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 Message 140 by Faith, posted 03-23-2020 7:53 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Faith 
Suspended Member (Idle past 1444 days)
Posts: 35298
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001


Message 140 of 955 (873988)
03-23-2020 7:53 AM
Reply to: Message 139 by Percy
03-23-2020 7:36 AM


Masks and other protective gear are not normal wear
There are around five million medical professionals in the country. If on average they each needed only a couple or three masks a day under normal circumstances then the country's normal usage rate for N95 masks would be around 10 to 15 million per day ...
Masks are not normally used by medical personnel when dealing with patients on a routine basis, they are only needed when an infection is suspected or known and that's a small part of normal routine. So if their use has increased a great deal that must be due to the coronavirus, either known or suspected cases, requiring all medical personnel to take extra precautions.
When I was in the hospital last year about this time none of the staff wore any kind of protective gear until I was diagnosed with shingles, and then they all started showing up with protective gear on (though not masks). When my shingles case was shown to be so minimal I hardly even had a vislble rash (though plenty of pain) they stopped wearing it when they came into my room.
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.
Edited by Faith, : q
Edited by Faith, : No reason given.

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 Message 139 by Percy, posted 03-23-2020 7:36 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 141 of 955 (873989)
03-23-2020 8:12 AM


Accurate Terminology
Paraphrasing the objection, someone above has questioned figures cited from What Does Coronavirus Do to the Body? - The New York Times because it referred to "percent of people infected" instead of "percent of confirmed cases." In most contexts it is safe to assume these terms are synonymous, especially when statistics are being cited.
The underlying concern is that the coronavirus mortality rate is actually far lower than indicated by confirmed cases, around 4% worldwide. The reason for this is that most countries are only testing people with symptoms and calculate their figures based on the number of confirmed cases instead of the number of actual cases projected statistically.
But Germany is doing statistical testing that projects that the number of people actually infected far exceeds the number of confirmed cases. The mortality rate based on this statistical figure is a mere 0.1%, about the same as the flu (which has a vaccine that reduces the infection rate). But Germany also has a still incredibly low mortality rate of 0.4% for even confirmed cases, so something else may be going on in Germany that isn't understood yet. (I heard these figures on NPR this morning but cannot find a corresponding print story.)
But if the German figure can be confirmed, if coronavirus actually has a far lower mortality rate than currently thought, it would be a major game changer. Business and industry could reopen. Normal life could resume. Depression could be avoided.
If there were sufficient test equipment in this country then we could do the same kind of statistical sampling that Germany is doing and get a good idea of the actual penetration rate into the general population.
But we will know within a week or two if coronavirus is as contagious and dangerous as currently believed, because medical facilities in New York, California and Washington will either be overwhelmed by then, or they won't.
--Percy

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 Message 142 by Tangle, posted 03-23-2020 9:02 AM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 142 of 955 (873990)
03-23-2020 9:02 AM
Reply to: Message 141 by Percy
03-23-2020 8:12 AM


Re: Accurate Terminology
Percy writes:
But if the German figure can be confirmed, if coronavirus actually has a far lower mortality rate than currently thought, it would be a major game changer. Business and industry could reopen. Normal life could resume. Depression could be avoided.
Not really.
It's not just the direct mortality rate that's important it's the serious illness rate. If everyone gets this thing within a few months of everyone else, our emergency services will fail and more will die for lack of treatment. Most countries are introducing movement restrictions to slow down the rate of infection in order to protect our health systems.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 141 by Percy, posted 03-23-2020 8:12 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
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Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 143 of 955 (873991)
03-23-2020 9:06 AM


More on exploited workers
From the New York Times:
'Terrified' Package Delivery Employees Are Going to Work Sick
For some reason I wasn't thinking about the employees of the shipping companies, but this is the situation I was afraid of.
The article describes how the people who work for the delivery companies (notably UPS) have been going to work sick, often with symptoms associated with coronavirus, because they simply cannot afford to miss work.
By the way, I'm not worried about contracting contagion from delivered packages. I'm more concerned about sick workers going to work and spreading illnesses to their coworkers who then spread it to the rest of the community.
But then, I'm also worried about people being out of work in a nation that doesn't have an adequate social welfare safety net and, it appears, doesn't have a clue about how to get one going.
Ah, well. The Invisible Hand is a jealous god who demands human sacrifice, I guess.

But [Frederick] Douglass was not gone; he was merely dead. -- David W. Blight

Replies to this message:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 144 of 955 (873992)
03-23-2020 9:10 AM


One Possible Coronavirus Death, One for Certain
My daughter's SO's 84-year old grandfather died last week from complications of pneumonia. He had been in robust health, shoveling snow from his driveway the week before he was diagnosed with Type A influenza in mid-February. Unexpectedly he declined rapidly after seeming to be on the way to recovery. He had no other health issues.
He received the flu shot last fall, which raises the probability of false positives to 50% for Type A influenza testing, so in my mind it is possible he actually had coronavirus. He was never tested for it.
But NBC News knows that soundman Larry Edgeworth, age 61, died this past week from coronavirus because he *was* tested. His wife says he also suffered from other health issues.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 145 of 955 (873994)
03-23-2020 9:36 AM
Reply to: Message 142 by Tangle
03-23-2020 9:02 AM


Re: Accurate Terminology
Tangle writes:
It's not just the direct mortality rate that's important it's the serious illness rate. If everyone gets this thing within a few months of everyone else, our emergency services will fail and more will die for lack of treatment. Most countries are introducing movement restrictions to slow down the rate of infection in order to protect our health systems.
Yes, you're quite correct, but there's more than just that possibility. If the rate of severe illness is 6% based on the number of confirmed cases, but the actual number of people infected is not 35,000 but a million, then the rate of severe illness is actually much, much lower, and then our healthcare system should not be overwhelmed as long as the sheltering-in-place rules are effective at flattening the curve.
But if the rate of severe illness is really 6% and we just haven't seen the critical period of the illness for most infected people, then if a million people are actually infected right now then the healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Our statistics are untrustworthy because we're mostly only testing those showing symptoms, which seriously skews them. We need to test a statistical sample of the population. As long as the sample is random only 1700 need be randomly tested to give 95% confidence. If the sample isn't random (and it won't be) then many more need to be tested to provide high confidence, how many more depending upon the degree of randomness and the nature of the exceptions.
--Percy

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 Message 147 by caffeine, posted 03-23-2020 10:47 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 146 of 955 (873995)
03-23-2020 9:57 AM
Reply to: Message 143 by Chiroptera
03-23-2020 9:06 AM


Re: More on exploited workers
Chiroptera writes:
By the way, I'm not worried about contracting contagion from delivered packages.
In my view all possible vectors of the coronavirus threat should be taken seriously. Certainly there's a point where the probability becomes so low we ignore it. For example, the possibility of infection while walking outside alone in the country must be extremely minute.
But given that coronavirus can survive 24 hours on cardboard and up to 72 hours on polypropylene plastic, I think delivered packages should be treated with great caution because it could have been handled, possibly even coughed on, by someone with coronavirus.
When my package arrives (it should be small) I will not have any contact with the delivery person. I will spray the outside of the cardboard package with 70% isopropyl alcohol and then let it sit for a couple hours. I will then open it with gloves and mask on in the garage and presumably find the item in a plastic or plastic/cardboard package. I will spray this, too, with 70% isopropyl alcohol and wait a couple hours. Then I will open the packaging and bring the item in the house where I will carefully wash my hands, just in case. I will leave the mask and gloves in the garage for 48 hours before using them again, carefully following procedures while removing them.
--Percy

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 Message 167 by Minnemooseus, posted 03-24-2020 12:39 AM Percy has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 147 of 955 (873996)
03-23-2020 10:47 AM
Reply to: Message 145 by Percy
03-23-2020 9:36 AM


Re: Accurate Terminology
But if the rate of severe illness is really 6% and we just haven't seen the critical period of the illness for most infected people, then if a million people are actually infected right now then the healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
South Korea have had one of the highest ratios of tests performed to population, and they are reporting a serious illness rate of about 1%.
This still means we should exercise caution. If the disease is highly contagious and nobody has any immunity due to the novelty, even 1% is a potential threat to health services. To put things in context, of 70% of the population is infected in this country, and 1% of those require hospitalisation, that's a slightly higher number than the total number of hospital beds in the country.

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 Message 145 by Percy, posted 03-23-2020 9:36 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 148 of 955 (873997)
03-23-2020 10:53 AM
Reply to: Message 135 by AZPaul3
03-22-2020 8:24 PM


Re: FEMA Director Refuses to be Nailed Down
Since the number of N95 masks in the stockpile (12 million) is minuscule compared to demand, FEMA head Gaynor's claims that they were shipping masks to the states "yesterday, today and tomorrow and on into the future" (he repeated words to that effect many times) was a hand wave meant to imply something effective was being done when it wasn't. The stockpile doesn't have anywhere near enough masks to make a difference.
The article quoted Steven Adams, acting director of the stockpile program (of course he's acting, everyone in the Trump administration is acting), saying that 300 million masks a month are needed. My own estimate was 250 million per day for a pandemic, but his estimate is 10 million per day and since he probably knows a lot more about pandemics than me I'll go with his estimate. If the stockpile shipped out enough masks to meet demand then their supply would be entirely used up in 1.2 days. Gaynor was being very misrepresentative. At least as far as masks go, the stockpile is a mere drop in the ocean compared to what is needed, not even worth mentioning.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 135 by AZPaul3, posted 03-22-2020 8:24 PM AZPaul3 has replied

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 Message 150 by AZPaul3, posted 03-23-2020 11:54 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 149 of 955 (873999)
03-23-2020 11:03 AM


Cuomo Live Now
If only someone of this level of competence were in charge nationally: Cuomo Live Update
--Percy

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 Message 151 by Percy, posted 03-23-2020 12:05 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 150 of 955 (874000)
03-23-2020 11:54 AM
Reply to: Message 148 by Percy
03-23-2020 10:53 AM


Re: FEMA Director Refuses to be Nailed Down
Also, since the govt is ordering up millions of masks, that is using practically all the manufacturing capacity of the nation. Their priority, as it should be, will be to provide these supplies to hospitals, military.
You and I will not see another N95 or even a standard surgical mask for many months to come.

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 148 by Percy, posted 03-23-2020 10:53 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
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