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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 214 of 955 (874118)
03-25-2020 10:46 AM
Reply to: Message 198 by Faith
03-24-2020 9:30 PM


Re: The Quinine Drugs Problematic Miracle Cure?
Faith writes:
You accuse me of "error and ignorance" but have failed to mention any instances of these in this discussion.
Practically every reply to you is a correction of your error and ignorance. This thread alone abounds with evidence of it, as do many others. I can't count the number of times I've ended a reply to you by commenting that you've managed to get through yet another post without saying anything true.
To find evidence of your error and ignorance just read almost any reply to you anywhere.
Please stop deflecting attention from the topic by demanding evidence of the incredibly obvious that is already omnipresent. If you're saying things you're not willing to own up to then I suggest not saying them in the first place.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 198 by Faith, posted 03-24-2020 9:30 PM Faith has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 215 of 955 (874119)
03-25-2020 11:00 AM
Reply to: Message 201 by xongsmith
03-25-2020 12:42 AM


Re: interesting article:
xongsmith writes:
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance | by Tomas Pueyo | Medium
Kinda grim in that it seems what the US is doing is WRONG. We should be doing both lines of attack with the full kitchen sink of strategies.
Kinda very, very long. I skimmed it but think I have the essence: put the hammer down now and stop all interaction that is non-essential. Implement extremely widespread testing as quickly as possible so people don't circulate in the population before they know they're infected.
Please correct as necessary.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 201 by xongsmith, posted 03-25-2020 12:42 AM xongsmith has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 230 by caffeine, posted 03-25-2020 4:02 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 216 of 955 (874120)
03-25-2020 11:03 AM
Reply to: Message 204 by Tangle
03-25-2020 3:34 AM


Tangle writes:
If anything good comes out of this at all, it might be that even the Trumpian deluded masses will notice that Trump made a total horlicks of this. Well those that survive it.
I didn't read the article, but I did see a headline in Google News that said Trump's approval rating is at an all time high.
Meanwhile Trump surrounds himself with people that just nod and fiddles as Rome burns - he wants the country "opened up and raring to go by Easter Sunday," He really is a dangerous, self-serving arsehole.
But a highly approved one.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 204 by Tangle, posted 03-25-2020 3:34 AM Tangle has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 217 of 955 (874121)
03-25-2020 11:12 AM
Reply to: Message 205 by Faith
03-25-2020 6:05 AM


Re: The Quinine Drugs Problematic Miracle Cure?
Faith writes:
I'm not interested in proving anything beyond what I just proved about how you say you doubt something when you have zero evidence of it. That's enough.
Well, that's as clear as mud. Didn't you tell me you were going to begin quoting what you're replying to, just after I totally dismantled your claim that you usually quote?
Beyond that I asked you what "errors and ignorance" you are imputing to me, which you didn't answer at all. Far as I know I've committed neither error nor ignorance in this discussion.
I would venture that most of us are completely mystified about how you can make claims like this after saying almost nothing true throughout even long threads like this one, and being called on it time after time.
Surprise us all by saying something true in your reply.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 205 by Faith, posted 03-25-2020 6:05 AM Faith has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 221 of 955 (874125)
03-25-2020 1:12 PM
Reply to: Message 207 by Faith
03-25-2020 6:22 AM


Re: we need to test everybody.
Faith writes:
You say the companies that are reorganizing to produce the medical supplies aren't yet up and running, but I've been hearing that they are and one thing that is now being produced in great numbers is the testing kits.
Can you cite a news article presenting information that would confirm this is true? Or is this from your rosy-picture conservative talk shows again?
A Google News search did not find any articles about companies that have already retooled and are producing medical supplies. 3M has ramped up mask production to 100 million per month, which is around 20 per month for each medical field related worker in the US. The actual need is closer to 20 per day. A number of companies have announced plans to produce masks, but only small ones I've never heard of. My wife plans to make more surgical masks for the local hospital, which recently provided an actual sewing template for what will work best for them. It includes a pocket for a filter insert (you can find them on Amazon, but they're out of stock), which is kind of interesting since it means they have N95 filters but no masks to slip them into.
The only thing you said that can be verified is that test kit production is increasing, but I already knew and I expect everyone else did to. Because it's true. Which is why it was reported in the news. Which you don't read, instead preferring conservative entertainment programs purporting to be news.
Cuomo is getting many of those kits and that's why he can tell that the number of cases is apparently doubling every day though perhaps the tests are simply picking up cases that have existed for some time.
Though the situation has improved, the number of test kits in New York is still so meager that they can only test those with symptoms. Until recently many displaying symptoms were turned down for the test, contributing to the problem.
Again I note that the reason they are particularly in short supply of all kinds of medical necessities in New York is that they are one of the states that adopted the ridiculous law that limited how many of such supplies hospitals and other health services were allowed to buy.
You are again promoting a conspiracy theory that has no evidence.
The Left is truly a scourge on this country.
I think the scourge is the person making things up and then casting aspersions.
The liberal crap they put in the stimulus package was disgusting partisan opportunism and it only serviced their own destructive goals of changing America into a third world socialist swamp. I think saner heads prevailed at least to the extent of getting some of that removed. Trump is trying to do what the country needs, support the businesses that hire the workers that make the country prosper while the Left tries to destroy the source of prosperity.
This is just your usual claptrap. Do you have anything specific the left did that you object to?
I think it's Budweiser that is putting out hand sanitizer and I hear that is also underway already.
Let the world note that Faith has said something true. It isn't clear that production has actually begun, but if it hasn't already then it should be soon. Many other beer makers and distilleries are doing the same.
I can't find this at Google, but then Google is another Leftist destroyer of America and do their best to suppress anything good that the Trump administration does, same as all our corrupted media these days.
What do you mean you can't find it at Google? Can you truly be so incompetent? Go to https://news.google.com or Google, doesn't matter which one, and enter "budweiser hand sanitizer". You'll get links to literally dozens of articles.
Sheesh!
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 207 by Faith, posted 03-25-2020 6:22 AM Faith has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 222 of 955 (874126)
03-25-2020 1:49 PM
Reply to: Message 220 by RAZD
03-25-2020 12:12 PM


Re: Cuban Interferon Innoculation used against Covid-19 - where's the news?
Interferon alfa-2b - Wikipedia was developed by Biogen, an American company. I think the term "recombinant" describes the technique employed to create it.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 220 by RAZD, posted 03-25-2020 12:12 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 223 by RAZD, posted 03-25-2020 2:47 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 226 of 955 (874131)
03-25-2020 3:05 PM


Today's Cuomo Press Conference
The problem is not yet getting better. Here's the latest US graph of number of infections as of two days ago:
I'm listening to today's Cuomo press conference about the situation in New York. I'll try to avoid repeating information provided in previous press conferences. The epicenter is New York City, about 200 miles from here.
He reported some preliminary news that is good if it holds up, that the hospitalization rate may be declining. On Sunday it was doubling every 2 days, on Monday every 3.4 days, on Tuesday every 4.7 days. It's too early to rely on this data because the average incubation period for the coronavirus is 5 days, and it seems rather soon for there to be a measurable positive effect, particularly since there has been such a huge compliance problem, particularly among young people.
Cuomo is bringing the hammer down in New York City. Congregating in parks is disallowed, as are all contact sports such as basketball. If this isn't followed parks will be closed. Some streets are being closed to vehicular traffic to make more room for pedestrians to get out.
Cuomo estimates that the maximum level of hospitalizations will occur in 21 days. He says that hospital capacity will be increased to 100,000 beds but that 140,000 are required. He believes that 140,000 people will be hospitalized simultaneously at the epidemic's apex. Since only 15% of those infected require hospitalization, doing the math says that he believes the number of infections will be north of a million people. Since the number of infected in New York is currently 30,811, Cuomo believes the number will rise by over 3000% in just three weeks. With a population of 20 million, that would mean that 5% of all of New York would be infected.
Naturally their hospital system would be far overwhelmed, even more as health workers take sick. This will affect everyone, not just coronavirus patients. A heart attack, not normally a death sentence these days, would entail longer response times and insufficient medical staff and equipment and a much higher likelihood of an adverse outcome.
Cuomo reported that yesterday in a conference call with hospital administrators he told them to increase capacity by 50%, and some 100%. The US Navy Ship Comfort has 1000 beds. All state dormitories in downstate area near New York City number 29,000, and their possible use is being explored.
They're combing the world for equipment. They have enough for present requirements, but not for further out than three weeks.
They have 4000 ventilators, federal government has supplied 4000, they've purchased 7000 more, and they're exploring splitting ventilators between two patients. They're working with federals to find more ventilators. Once the New York crisis is over the ventilators would be made available to other states. They're trying to encourage the production of more ventilators, but the need is coming up very soon, before increased production can happen, as much as major companies might want to volunteer their help.
A mental health hotline and an online capability have been set up, completely free. 6000 mental health personnel have volunteered their services.
Cuomo spoke with President Trump last night and this morning, as well as with other persons on the federal task force (Pence, Kushner, etc.) about various issues, including redeploying equipment and personnel to the next hotspot after the New York crisis is over.
The $2 trillion coronavirus assistance bill is not good for New York because its allocation is only $3.8 billion, New York City $1.3 billion, and they need well north of $15 billion.
28% of all testing nationwide has been done in New York. Testing is being done in the most dense areas. Anyone who has symptoms can get a test. Testing shows a slowing of the exponential increase in infections.
Cuomo then opened up the conference to questions, I stopped at this point, here's the video:
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 228 by JonF, posted 03-25-2020 3:45 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 227 of 955 (874132)
03-25-2020 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 223 by RAZD
03-25-2020 2:47 PM


Re: Cuban Interferon Innoculation used against Covid-19 - where's the news?
I should have quoted what I was responding to, which was your concern that sanctions could be affecting its availability here.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 223 by RAZD, posted 03-25-2020 2:47 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 231 of 955 (874137)
03-25-2020 5:03 PM
Reply to: Message 230 by caffeine
03-25-2020 4:02 PM


Re: interesting article:
caffeine writes:
It's a little over 6,000 words. You typically write more than that in a hour.
100 words/minute? 8 characters/second? Wow I'm good!
Thanks for the summary.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 230 by caffeine, posted 03-25-2020 4:02 PM caffeine has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 232 by Tangle, posted 03-25-2020 5:19 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 233 of 955 (874139)
03-25-2020 5:26 PM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
03-25-2020 5:19 PM


Re: interesting article:
Tangle writes:
My daughter has it.
She was in the front line as a teacher looking after the children of critical workers, so it was as near inevitable as it gets but it's still a shock and a worry. 7 days now to wait.
I was wondering how long it would be before we heard a report like this. I'm so sorry and wish your daughter all the best. What is the wait for?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 232 by Tangle, posted 03-25-2020 5:19 PM Tangle has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 235 by PaulK, posted 03-25-2020 5:46 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 244 of 955 (874165)
03-26-2020 8:28 AM


The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
Today's US graph, latest data is from two days ago. No sign of slowing down yet:
I think we're in day 9 or 10 of social distancing. If this is having an effect it should begin showing up by early next week.
My gizmo from Amazon arrived yesterday in a plastic pouch. It connects my non-bluetooth sound system to bluetooth, very nice for very little money, and I don't have to wear headphones anymore to get good sound. I was using Pandora, which is part of my sound system, but Pandora's variety for the type of music I like has diminished a great deal over the past couple years and I'll be dropping them. My own music collection is much more varied, and I'm giving Apple Music a try. During my first exploration of their collection I added the Beethoven symphonies I was missing. They're expensive, $10/month.
To unpack the gizmo I carried the pouch into the garage using a paper towel, then sprayed it down with isopropyl alcohol and let it sit a half hour. I sprayed down a pair of scissors with alcohol, opened the pouch, and extracted from it a cardboard box, being careful to not touch it. Turning it using the scissors as a prod to expose different sides, I sprayed down the box with alcohol and let it sit a half hour. I then opened the box, extracted the contents with a paper towel and brought them in. I then washed my hands and the scissors with soap and water for 30 seconds. Setting up the gizmo was easier and took much less time.
All the indoor tennis clubs have shut down, but we haven't been able to play outside because it's been too cold, and Tuesday we got 5 inches of the heavy stuff. I've called off doubles for now because of the potential for approaching too close. The next few days are supposed to be nice and top 50 by a little, I've scheduled play for all three days. Before play begins both players will spray their hands with alcohol, since both will be touching the balls. Balls will be new out of the can. We'll approach each other no closer than 15 feet.
Tomorrow is grocery shopping day and I'll be following the same protocols I followed last week. Again, the 6 foot recommended distance, besides being not enough, is absolutely impossible in grocery stores.
There is some social pressure against these protocols. Most people don't like to feel weird, and you *do* feel weird if you're the only one wearing a mask. But I advise everyone, if you got 'em wear 'em whenever other people are present.
Most exhaled droplets are larger and do fall to the floor rather quickly, so floors can be hotbeds of virus. I don't know how long coronavirus can survive on linoleum, tile or concrete, but assume that your shoes are contaminated and don't track them into your house. Leave them outside and spray them down with alcohol or don't touch them for a couple days, which is easy since most people have several pairs of shoes.
I keep going on about precautions because from what I see on the news too many are not taking them seriously enough. It is true that the risks for not following them are greater in New York City than, say, Wyoming and that penetration into the population will be a function of density, but no part of the US is completely isolated from the rest. There are no hard borders inside the country. Wyoming could return to work next week with only small consequences in terms of raw numbers of infections and deaths and the strain on their hospital system, and the percentages should be significantly less than New York City, too.
But without doubt Wyoming's numbers in terms of infections and deaths will be higher if they don't take precautions. Will it be enough to overwhelm their hospital system? I found Wyoming hospital data at Wyoming Hospitals, the total number of beds is 1423, or 1 bed for every 400 people. New York State thinks they will soon be at 100,000 hospital beds, which is 1 bed for every 200 people, twice as good as Wyoming. I don't think Wyoming should get too cocky.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Grammar.
Edited by Percy, : Add subtitle.

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 245 of 955 (874167)
03-26-2020 8:50 AM
Reply to: Message 235 by PaulK
03-25-2020 5:46 PM


Re: interesting article:
PaulK writes:
7 days is the self-isolation period for people showing symptoms.
Does this mean the UK believes a person is contagious for only 7 days after the first display of symptoms?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 235 by PaulK, posted 03-25-2020 5:46 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 246 by PaulK, posted 03-26-2020 9:07 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 247 by Tangle, posted 03-26-2020 9:09 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 251 of 955 (874180)
03-26-2020 11:04 AM


Why 14 Days Is Not Enough
This graph from Opinion | Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do. - The New York Times shows why 14 days of social distancing (or physical distancing, as some experts are saying it should be called) is not enough:
The graph's labels are missing from the image, see the article if you'd like to see the numbers.
I think it's too late to stop the momentum of the "social distancing" term, but giving the experts the nod, two months of "physical distancing" puts us out to mid May.
This would be a terrible disaster for the economy, but if we can get mask production ramped up to about 20 million/day (which is far, far above the current 100 million/month) so everyone could have masks, and if isopropyl alcohol can become widely available again, and if we could get people to follow serious protocols like the one's I've described myself taking (I know people in general find them extreme, but as the viral threat approaches closer to home attitudes will inevitably change), then it would be safe for people to return to work far sooner.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 252 of 955 (874213)
03-26-2020 5:38 PM


Not Covering Trump
The lies and misrepresentations spread by Trump during his increased air time from his coronavirus briefings and interviews is why not broadcasting his comments is a public service. From the very beginning the FCC saw broadcasting media as a source of essential and accurate information. That's why the Emergency Broadcast System existed, replacing a predecessor and itself being replaced in 1997 by the Emergency Alert System, though that last isn't a name that has stuck in the public mind.
It is dangerous for public health for Trump to be filling the airways with misinformation. Here, taken from Trump’s faux facts on Fox News, are the lies and misrepresentations of March 24:
  • Trump: Everyone was against closing travel to China, but he pushed it through anyway.
    The Truth: It was never Trump's idea in the first place, he was against it from the start, and he was reluctantly pressured into it by advisers.
  • Trump: He made the decision to close off travel to China early, while Joe Biden called it xenophobic and racist.
    The Truth: Biden made the comments in a speech that began only 15 minutes after the administration announced the travel restrictions. If he already knew about it when made his speech there was no indication of it. He never mentioned China, only Trump's record of xenophobia and fearmongering. Since Trump was at the time still downplaying the dangers of the coronavirus, no one would ever have described Trump's coronavirus comments as fearmongering.
    Trump is making contradictory claims, that Democrats were both whipping up a hysterical hoax about the dangers of the coronavirus while at the same time accusing Trump of fearmongering about it.
  • Trump: A few weeks ago the economy was the best in the country's history.
    The Truth: This is historically false. There's been both lower unemployment and higher growth rates in the nation's history.
  • Trump: We don't turn the economy off for the flu, which kills tens of thousands every year, we shouldn't turn it off for the coronavirus.
    The Truth: The coronavirus is at least ten times more deadly than the flu, and there is no vaccine to prevent infection rates from reaching very high levels.
  • Trump: The original CDC test was perfect, just like my phone call was perfect. Oh, you're challenging that the test was perfect? I never said it was perfect.
    The Truth: The fact that Trump contradicted himself in the space of a minute says it all.
  • Trump: Problems with the CDC coronavirus test were due to previous administrations.
    The Truth: Trump was advised back in January that the CDC wasn't up to the task of designing and producing the coronavirus test and that he should involve private industry, which he didn't do until a month later.
  • Trump: "Anybody who wants a test gets a test." Response to reporter's question at the CDC on March 6.
    The Truth: Obviously it was false then, just as it is false now. Test availability is still poor enough that it is strongly urged that you be displaying symptoms before requesting a test. The process people were asked to follow, and that they're still being asked to follow in most places, is to call their doctor and for the doctor to recommend whether they should have the test or not. So much for, "Anybody who wants a test gets a test."
  • Trump: New York Governor Cuomo had a chance to order 15,000 ventilators back in 2015.
    The Truth: This is just a flat out lie that a conspiracy website has tried to give a veneer of truth by stringing together unrelated tidbits from a report from five years ago. It was noted in the report that a pandemic like 1918 might require 16,000 ventilators, but there was never any suggestion that New York should purchase such a fantastic (at the time) number, especially given the staffing/training problem for so many ventilators.
    Staffing/training will be a serious issue for the ventilators New York is acquiring now. You don't just flip a switch. I think someone in this thread already made clear the complexity of ventilators while explaining why sharing a ventilator seems like a very unlikely thing to achieve.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 253 by PaulK, posted 03-26-2020 5:50 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 254 of 955 (874216)
03-26-2020 6:19 PM


We're the new record holder!
Because of delays in data gathering the final statistics aren't actually in yet, but there is no doubt that we are now the world record holder in coronavirus infections, passing Italy and China. Here are the currently available numbers showing us in third place:
Today it was warm enough to play tennis outside. The park where we played had a sign on the tennis courts (the fence was a convenient place for the sign given the tennis courts' location near the park entrance) saying, "Use of playground prohibited due to coronavirus." There is a playground area in the park, but nowhere near the tennis courts. People passed the courts regularly, usually walking their dogs. There was a couple flying a drone. One court was already filled when we got there, they left, another pair came, they left, and as we were leaving a mother and her three children (I presume) came.
My partner and I never came closer together than around 15 feet, except for a brief instant when I sprayed his hands with isopropyl alcohol. He's a retired doctor and had been worried about us possibly contaminating each other when touching the balls and was relieved to see the alcohol. He mentioned that yesterday he had applied online to become a medical volunteer to help relieve the load on working doctors.
A little later I spoke on the phone with another doctor in the area who said that things were beginning to look bad in our area.
Treat this very seriously. Even if you're certain you're indestructible, the people you infect might not be.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 255 by Percy, posted 03-26-2020 7:04 PM Percy has replied

  
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