Coronavirus and Pandemics

Before Trump took office his staff was fully briefed by the outgoing Obama staff on the possibility of a pandemic, the personal and economic threat and the steps needed to mitigate such a threat.The current stockpile was created during the Clinton administration.There is no excuse for Trump claiming that this was unpredictable.The man is just once again a failure at yet another business. Remember he has no problem with the US going bankrupt as long as he does not have to declare personal bankruptcy!

Of course it's worse than that. As previous messages point out, Trump had three goddam years to prepare for this. The outgoing Administration gave briefings to the incoming Trump Circus about the threat of a pandemic and minimum steps needed to be prepared. These warnings were repeated over the last three years by government health experts.The problem is the Republicans refuse to listen to experts. Anything they don't like to hear gets labeled as "Deep State" or "Cultural Marxists who hate America".I hope that when Biden finally resurfaces to campaign, the Democrats not only hammer the Republicans over Covid-19, but draw the connection how every goddam policy decision they make is completely disconnected from the advice of experts who know what they are talking about.Oh, and for good measure, they should also point out how our response to Covid-19 is a dress rehearsal for global climate change: deny the problem, drag your feet on solutions, take action that is counter productive, and then, once things are collapsing around you, take pathetic steps to try to mitigate a catastrophe that could have been largely prevented.

May I suggest you keep your original ones as well. Just to be fair and admitting to being in error. Error because of the good news that the lockdowns are working. You know, those lockdowns that Trump wants to lift.

Don’t forget that the Trump administration sacked the guys who would have been managing the situation. With Trump laughably claiming that if they were needed he could replace them.And he cut the CDC funding for dealing with epidemics abroad.Claiming that he blocked travel from China is all very well, but it wasn’t enough and never was going to be.

Thanks, I was thinking that log graphs would be good for showing reductions in infections.Here's an interesting study done on RI response and ongoing threat.

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Page not found - ecoRI News

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Here is the general idea.

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The SEIR model is the standard model that describes the evolution of epidemics. It has been used to predict and manage pandemics like the 1918 flu, SARS, HIV, and childhood diseases, such as measles. It’s now being used to model the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, epidemic.

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I developed an SEIR model for the spread of COVID-19 that is applicable to Rhode Island using data and parameters from Ferguson’s paper and research reports that analyzed the spread of the virus in China.

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While there are uncertainties in the modeling, it’s useful in explaining the general scope of the potential impact of COVID-19 here. The outputs of the model are summarized in the graph below.

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The SEIR model applied to Rhode Island. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

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Since you can’t change the clinical characteristics of the disease incubation and infectious periods there are only two ways to stop an epidemic: vaccination and reducing the Reproduction Number.

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And since there is currently no vaccine for COVID-19, we can only reduce the R0, and this is done by reducing contact between people: social/physical distancing.

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In Ferguson’s study, his team defined gradually increasing levels of social distancing:

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• Do nothing: disease is allowed to spread unchecked.
• Case isolation and quarantine: infected people are quarantined.
• Close schools and universities.
• Social distancing of people older than 70.
• Lockdown.

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The results of applying the SEIR model to the Rhode Island population are shown in the two-image graphic below.

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The impact of social distancing on the number of infectious cases in Rhode Island. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

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The top chart shows the number of infectious people over time. As more social-distancing efforts take place, the peak number of cases falls. More social distancing results in less cases, but a slightly longer epidemic.

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The lower chart shows the cumulative number of cases over time, which is what is generally reported by the CDC and universities studying the epidemic. For Rhode Island, the number of cases on March 20 was 44. The lower chart shows quite dramatically that social distancing significantly reduces the total number of cases.

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The total estimated number of hospitalizations in Rhode Island in this scenario is 1,322. Of those, 59 percent are older than 70 and another 19 percent are 60-69.

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There are currently about 2,500 hospital beds in Rhode Island and many of those are already occupied. In this scenario, the state would require about 50 percent more beds.

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Not only that, about 40 percent of the hospitalizations could be critical, which is about 540 cases, and that would severely stress the system even further.

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If social distancing is successful, the estimated total number of hospitalizations drops to around 400 and critical cases to 180. ... This would still represent an increase in demand of 15 percent in the number of hospital beds required throughout the state.

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If moderate social distancing isn’t successful and the infection spreads, the next, and drastic, social distancing approach is lockdown.
Lockdown in Rhode Island when the number of cases reaches 500 in the middle of April. The dark red line shows the epidemic decaying away. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

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Lockdown in Rhode Island when the number of cases reaches 500 in the middle of April. The dark red line shows the epidemic decaying away. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

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This week, China announced no new cases, which shows that the lockdown may have finally curtailed the disease in China. The world is waiting to see if the lockdown currently being implemented in Italy will also be successful.

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The graphic to the right shows the impact of a Rhode Island lockdown in the SEIR model. The model assumes that the number of cases in Rhode Island has grown to 500 by the middle of April. Then, after imposition of the lockdown, the disease dies out a few weeks later.

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Lockdown in Rhode Island when the number of cases reaches 500 in the middle of April. The dark red line shows the epidemic decaying away. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

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The sooner we go into lock-down the better, as that is the best way we currently have to deal with this disease ... until a vaccine is developed. Social distancing can cut the number of infections/deaths in half. Lock-down should cut the numbers even more.Our governor has been pretty proactive, the ban on NY vehicles has been extended to all out of state vehicles and we are now under travel ban except for necessities (food shopping etc).Stats as of this morning:Total positive cases in RI: 239
RI Deaths from virus: 2
RI hospitalized: 29
Negative tests in RI: 2,541Hoping all is well with your folks.EnjoyEdited by RAZD, : stats as of 3/29/2020

Yeah I miss a lot of your stuff, Percy,, but my response in this case was appropriate to what you actually said, which accused me of simply wanting to believe that China was the origin of the virus. I answered that it's not about wanting to believe, they WERE the origin of the virus. Nothing else was required in response to what you actually said.Cheers.

This treatment has been recommended by many sources. It was used in France and they recomjmended it. Cuomo said he was recommending it. Various doctors recommend it. Some don't. Fauci thinks it needs more testing. Others say we have sufficient knowledge of the drug to use it now in serious cases, for people who are certainly going to die if nothing more is done than is being done for them. To withhold this drug is criminal under those circumstances. It's been ttested for decades with malaria so dosage and safety are known though all we know about it in relation to this virus so far is anecdota. Nevertheless there is quite a bit of anecdotal evidence that it is very effective and brings about recovery in a couple of days. Again, it is irresponsible if it is not being used on the very serious cases.Edited by Faith, : No reason given.Edited by Faith, : No reason given.

Trump HOPES we can lift SOME of the quarantines by Easter or shortly thereafter, and he never said more than that. He has also said it would not be lifted in the "hot spots," only in the places that are not having many cases.

A projection is only an estimate or forecast based on current data, and adjusting projections in light of new data is what is always done. Wouldn't it be misleading to label making a projection based on current data an error? Or do you feel it was an error to not have tried to anticipate when mitigation factors might begin taking effect?The website I've been using for my data is strangely quiescent today for the US (ArcGIS Dashboards Classic). Usually the numbers are updated several times a day, but today they're little changed from about 18 hours ago.--Percy

You miss a lot of all stuff, not just my stuff. Your response was appropriate to your level of self-imposed ignorance. If you're going to choose to ignore a good deal of what people say in response to you then have the integrity to take responsibility for the errors you then make. No I did not. You're having reading comprehension problems again. I responded to your expressed desire to blame China, hold them responsible, and bill them a trillion dollars. I told you that you were merely playing the Trumpian blame and accuse game, which does no good.You further said it originated in either their "wet markets" or bio-warfare labs. One of those is possible, the other conclusively debunked. As described to you more than once, while the first identified cases were in Wohan, the origin of the virus has not been definitively established. It is legitimate to hold China responsible for holding back timely information about the epidemic in Wohan.You may resume the endless defense of your errors during which you will undoubtedly commit more errors, accumulating to the point where no one knows what any of it is all about, at which point you will again declare you made no errors.--Percy

Could you keep the quackery stuff out of the thread unless supported with links to reliable sources? One person has died already.--Percy

Not to mention the people with conditions like, say lupus who are now having trouble getting their essential medications because people are buying into quackery.

There are no state or federal quarantines anywhere in the country. Trump spoke of opening up large and largely unaffected portions of the country by around Easter, despite his advisors' opinion that Easter was way too early and that the entire country would eventually be affected. It was dangerous to the country for Trump to say anything that might encourage people to cease mitigation practices early. As the negative reactions poured in over subsequent days Trump backed away from his Easter proposal.Trump's mismanagement style has been so extremely bizarre that it can be hard to remember how a responsible and competent administration would have handled the past week. Discussions about when to loosen mitigation practices, whether to do anything relevant to possible drug alternatives, and whether to quarantine the New York metropolitan area would have taken place behind closed doors in consultation with governors and officials as appropriate. Once consensus was reached and a decision made then a single announcement would be made that would set clear directions and policy for the appropriate time period.What we instead had was a confusion of changing positions and pronouncements by a president who pays more attention to what social media and polls say about him than what is good for the country.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Improve clarity.

The person who died took fish tank cleaner, not the prescribed medication, and then his wife tried to blame that stupidity on Trump. There is lots of evidence that the actual medication, used for decades with malaria, is useful. Yeah I'm sure I can come up with some references, but so could you if you weren't committed to all the lies on this subject.Edited by Faith, : No reason given.Edited by Faith, : No reason given.

China was the source of the virus, also of SARS and the Bird Flu, probably from their "wet markets." It is stupid to deny this known fact, and they were probably the source of other pandemics as well but these three are known.