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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 361 of 955 (874398)
03-31-2020 3:06 PM


Unintended?
There have been increasing number of coyotes in the neighborhoods.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22394
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 362 of 955 (874399)
03-31-2020 3:29 PM
Reply to: Message 342 by Faith
03-30-2020 12:47 PM


Re: Chloroquin and Hydroxychloroquin
Faith writes:
Percy writes:
...this is a personal request to please behave responsibly and leave the quackery out of the thread. Someone has already died,
Somebody died of taking fish tank cleaner, not this treatment.
This fish tank cleaner was chloroquine, which Trump suggested as a possible treatment at his briefings, and also at this conference call with governors at FEMA headquarters. It's right at the beginning of this video, and everything Trump says is false. It is not approved by the FDA, it is not safe, and there have been no studies of its effectiveness against the coronovirus, not of chloroquine nor of hydroxychloroquine:
The other occasions where he has irresponsibly and with false information promoted this are also on YouTube, look them up.
Today in the Wall Street Journal an opinion piece supporting the use of hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19:
It's an opinion piece, and what it describes is anecdotal. The gold standard is double blind testing with statistical analysis of results. Trump should not be promoting drugs at his briefings, and neither should the Wall Street Journal.
It is not within my power to convince you of anything. You won't listen to facts, you won't listen to reason. All I can do is beg you to keep the quackery off the thread. Please keep your focus on what the medical establishment recommends, which is to see your doctor if you're experiencing symptoms. No one should be touting unproven and potentially unsafe drugs.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 342 by Faith, posted 03-30-2020 12:47 PM Faith has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 363 by caffeine, posted 03-31-2020 5:07 PM Percy has replied
 Message 364 by dwise1, posted 03-31-2020 5:28 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1025 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 363 of 955 (874401)
03-31-2020 5:07 PM
Reply to: Message 362 by Percy
03-31-2020 3:29 PM


Re: Chloroquin and Hydroxychloroquin
This fish tank cleaner was chloroquine, which Trump suggested as a possible treatment at his briefings, and also at this conference call with governors at FEMA headquarters. It's right at the beginning of this video, and everything Trump says is false. It is not approved by the FDA, it is not safe, and there have been no studies of its effectiveness against the coronovirus, not of chloroquine nor of hydroxychloroquine:
That's false, of course there have. That's why we're talking about it. At least one has been cited in this thread. There has been a frenetic pace of study of the the effectiveness of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine against the coronavirus in the last few weeks. At least 27 clinical trials have been registered in China and the US using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine to treat coronavirus this year.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 362 by Percy, posted 03-31-2020 3:29 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 365 by Percy, posted 03-31-2020 9:19 PM caffeine has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5930
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.8


Message 364 of 955 (874402)
03-31-2020 5:28 PM
Reply to: Message 362 by Percy
03-31-2020 3:29 PM


Re: Chloroquin and Hydroxychloroquin
As I recall, it was reported that the fish tank cleaner was chloroquine phosphate, implying that it was not the same stuff. However, Wikipedia says that "chloroquine phosphate" is another name for chloroquine, so they actually are the same thing. More specifically on that page:
quote:
Formulations
Chloroquine comes in tablet form as the phosphate, sulfate, and hydrochloride salts. Chloroquine is usually dispensed as the phosphate.

So then actually what went wrong was that fish tank cleaner is an industrial/commercial form of the compound, not a medical form.
Since Faith will not understand the difference, let's consider another important medication: nitroglycerin:
quote:
Nitroglycerin was written about as early as 1846 and came into medical use in 1878. It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system. ... The drug nitroglycerin (GTN) is a dilute form of the same chemical used as the explosive, nitroglycerin. Dilution makes it non-explosive.
So then what do you imagine would happen if you starting feeling chest pain and decided to self-medicate with some industrial strength nitroglycerin? Well, it most certainly would stop the chest pain, though I'm unsure whether it would have gotten down far enough to take out the chest in addition to the head.
Now to continue that analogy, imagine a public figure with a large following that believes everything he says no matter how obviously false. That public figure ignorantly advises his followers that nitroglycerin is a cure for heart attacks, but he neglects to specify the medical form only (along with other medical considerations). So a number of his followers, who are similarly ignorant, use the explosive to treat themselves with the expected consequences. The message should not have been "Use nitro", but rather "Seek medical advice and care." And for that, that public figure's best audience would not be the general public, but rather medical professionals (who would already know far more about the subject than that public figure).
So, back to chloroquine, rather than present it to the general public as a sure cure, Trump should be advising the medical community to look into it and, far more important, listen to the medical experts' responses and learn from them.
The true tragedy is that Trump does not listen, nor is he capable of learning, so he will continue to place the public in totally unnecessary danger with his ignorant public pronouncements.
 
I've heard that the wife in that self-poisoning tragedy survived, though not yet recovered, and is warning everybody to not listen to what Trump tells them. At least there's one positive consequence.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 362 by Percy, posted 03-31-2020 3:29 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22394
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 365 of 955 (874406)
03-31-2020 9:19 PM
Reply to: Message 363 by caffeine
03-31-2020 5:07 PM


Re: Chloroquin and Hydroxychloroquin
caffeine writes:
That's false, of course there have.
By "no studies" I of course meant no completed studies. If a completed study had found a benefit it would have made headlines everywhere.
That's why we're talking about it. At least one has been cited in this thread.
I used the search term "*chloroquine*", skimmed the messages it found for links, and couldn't find it. Or by "cited" maybe you didn't mean a link? I did find a link to Malaria Drug Chloroquine No Better Than Regular Coronavirus Care, Study Finds, but it wasn't statistically significant, too small a sample size.
On the off chance that some people misspelled it "chloroquin" I did another search, and that returned a ton of messages because Faith started a subthread where she misspelled it in the title. That's way too many messages to read, but perhaps the citation you mentioned is in one of those.
There has been a frenetic pace of study of the the effectiveness of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine against the coronavirus in the last few weeks. At least 27 clinical trials have been registered in China and the US using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine to treat coronavirus this year.
Okay, but registering a study and completing a study that finds a measurable therapeutic benefit are not the same thing. Or are you maybe thinking of older studies of other viruses from the coronavirus family, like SARS?
About the FDA, there was an emergency use authorization, not approval as Trump claimed when he said, "The head of the FDA, Dr. Stephen Hahn, got it approved very quickly." (Watch the video). I think emergency use means compassionate use, i.e., a patient is out of options and will die anyway. I think remdesivir has also been approved for compassionate use.
"First, do no harm," is the physicians' guide. That's why they have double blind studies. The medical profession must move very carefully with drugs that haven't been properly studied for use against the coronavirus, else they risk doing more harm than good. The huge amount of attention that chloroquine is receiving is due to Trump's promotion of it out of all proportion to its actual promise. Based on studies involving other viruses in the same family it merits study but not hype. Just the mere fact that Trump is plugging it should give one pause, because he has had bad judgment on just about everything throughout this crisis.
--Percy

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 Message 363 by caffeine, posted 03-31-2020 5:07 PM caffeine has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 367 by PaulK, posted 04-01-2020 12:42 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3941
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 366 of 955 (874409)
03-31-2020 11:10 PM


Will coronavirus delay the general election? All of your 2020 questions, answered
Just a link for some reading, if you wish.
Will coronavirus delay the general election? All of your 2020 questions, answered
Moose

Replies to this message:
 Message 368 by dwise1, posted 04-01-2020 1:50 AM Minnemooseus has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


(1)
Message 367 of 955 (874410)
04-01-2020 12:42 AM
Reply to: Message 365 by Percy
03-31-2020 9:19 PM


Re: Chloroquin and Hydroxychloroquin
I’ve posted reports on two trials.
One found no benefit Message 225
The other was rushed out without proper peer review Message 336

This message is a reply to:
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dwise1
Member
Posts: 5930
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.8


Message 368 of 955 (874411)
04-01-2020 1:50 AM
Reply to: Message 366 by Minnemooseus
03-31-2020 11:10 PM


Re: Will coronavirus delay the general election? All of your 2020 questions, answered
First, I'll make my own predictions so we can compare mine with your article's. Besides which I feel reluctant to follow a blind link (or whatever it's called here), since you have told us nothing of its contents.
  1. The social effects of the virus are already disrupting primary elections, causing them to be postponed, possibly indefinitely depending on the infection curves that each region is experiencing differently. That could be mitigated by those states resorting to mail-in ballots, but undoubtedly the states that practice voter suppression will ensure that that will not happen.
  2. The disruption in each state's primaries would also affect each party's convention, let alone whether the primaries could even be held post-social-distancing (assuming that that would happen).
    First, the postponing of various states' primaries would necessarily postpone the party's convention. Any state's indefinite postponement would similarly postpone the party convention indefinitely. That could very well result in a certain party ending up with no officially sanctioned candidate since no official convention had ever been held (and we all know full well which party that would be).
    Second, even if all primaries could eventually be held, there's still the matter of the convention itself. If social distancing is still in place, then how could a convention even be held?
    The only alternative would be a procedural one in which delegates can vote remotely. However, to the electorate that would come off as rather sterile (extremely important when dealing with diseases) and not at all exciting. After all, one of the really important parts of a party convention is to stir up excitement within the electorate in order to motivate them to get out there and vote! That crucial factor would be missing in this scenario.
    Please note that there will be and need not be any actual GOP convention. Trump is their candidate by default.
    The Democrats are in an entirely other kettle, so they do need to have an actual convention.
    Thus, the lack of ability to have an actual convention will more greatly affect the Democratic Party and not the GOP.
  3. The general election itself would be vulnerable, especially if infection rates were to re-appear in the Fall as is suspected.
    The traditional use of physical polling places would need to be replaced by other means, such as mail-in ballots. Of course, that is a matter of state-level election laws and procedures. As a result, voting will be far more vulnerable to state-level voter suppression activity.
  4. If it starts to look bad for him, Trump could just simply invoke emergency powers and postpone the 2020 Election ... indefinitely. Who's to stop him, since the GOP-dominated Senate just gave him the absolute power to violate any and all laws and the absolute power to do just whatever the fuck he wants to? Don't delude yourself: that was the outcome of the GOP Senate's vote on the Impeachment, damn their mangy hides for all Eternity (though not Mormon Mitt Romney's mangy hide)!
    Please suspend Godwin for a tick.
    The Weimar Republic had one of the most progressive constitutions that had ever existed, one that guaranteed so many rights for its citizens. It remained in effect, technically, until around early May 1945, when Nazi Germany finally fell.
    So what went wrong? Basically, the wrong person, Adolf Hitler, came into power and he was able to invoke, under the Weimar Constitution, emergency powers that gave him absolute power. From that point on, even though the liberal Weimar Constitution was officially in power, Hitler's emergency powers were able to override all constitutional guarantees and keep him in absolute power.
    So then, under this, the most incredible emergency our nation has ever faced, what is there to keep Trump from assuming absolute emergency powers? Powers that would enable him to postpone national elections indefinitely. Thus guaranteeing himself from ever being properly prosecuted for his many crimes.
    President For Life.
So how did my own predictions match up with your article's?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 366 by Minnemooseus, posted 03-31-2020 11:10 PM Minnemooseus has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 369 by Minnemooseus, posted 04-01-2020 2:19 AM dwise1 has not replied

  
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3941
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 369 of 955 (874412)
04-01-2020 2:19 AM
Reply to: Message 368 by dwise1
04-01-2020 1:50 AM


Re: Will coronavirus delay the general election? All of your 2020 questions, answered
The short version is that it is very difficult to delay the general election. To do such would require a massive coordinated effort by both the federal and state governments.
Moose

This message is a reply to:
 Message 368 by dwise1, posted 04-01-2020 1:50 AM dwise1 has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22394
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 370 of 955 (874414)
04-01-2020 7:00 AM
Reply to: Message 350 by Percy
03-31-2020 9:09 AM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
This information comes from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic. Here's the latest graph showing US infections rising to nearly 190,000. The growth rate picked up slightly:
Here's the latest log graph, the last datapoint indicating the pickup in rate
My new projections aren't too far off from the actual number, but the previous three days had seen increases of very close to 20 thousand infections, and yesterday the increase was about 26 thousand:
DateProjected Number
Infections by Evening
Actual Number
Infections
3/30/2020164,610164,610
3/31/2020185,000189,633
4/1/2020207,000
4/2/2020230,000
4/3/2020254,000
4/4/2020279,000
4/4/2020305,000
4/4/2020332,000
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 350 by Percy, posted 03-31-2020 9:09 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 388 by Percy, posted 04-02-2020 8:30 AM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22394
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 371 of 955 (874415)
04-01-2020 7:42 AM


Trump urges Florida governor to allow coronavirus-stricken ship to dock | Fox News, Fox News reports. He's doing the right thing. A cruise ship is just a huge incubator for disease with inadequate health facilities. Forcing passengers to stay aboard subjects them to a huge health risk
This is a complete 180 from a month ago when he said passengers on the Grand Princess could not disembark because it would cause infection numbers in the US to go up. 103 were infected and there were 2 deaths. It feels weird to have him do the right thing for a change.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 373 by Chiroptera, posted 04-01-2020 9:06 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 372 of 955 (874416)
04-01-2020 8:58 AM


One Day More

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 373 of 955 (874417)
04-01-2020 9:06 AM
Reply to: Message 371 by Percy
04-01-2020 7:42 AM


I'm sure Trump occasionally does a good thing, but we never hear about it because it wouldn't be the sort of thing he could brag about to his followers.

But [Frederick] Douglass was not gone; he was merely dead. -- David W. Blight

This message is a reply to:
 Message 371 by Percy, posted 04-01-2020 7:42 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 374 of 955 (874418)
04-01-2020 9:18 AM


Chinese data
While I do believe China has made huge gains in flattening the curve due to their very aggressive measures, they are essentially reporting zero new cases over the course of almost a week and a half now. I'm not buying that at all. That's not even remotely believable. Just as they tried to cover it up for over a month that they were dealing with a new virus, I think they continue to suppress the actual data to make themselves look better.
If you go to the ArcGIS Dashboards Classic website we see that the spread of the virus extends to the farthest reaches of the earth and continues to grow exponentially. But curiously China's numbers have remained static for more than a week. We also know that incubation periods can be as short as 3 days and as long as 14 days. We also know that the data is suggesting that people are highly contagious long before showing any symptoms. China has basically declared victory and is already talking about opening up movie theaters and going on with life as it was pre-virus.
Furthermore, now that we know that THREE novel viral strains (SARS, Avian Flu, Covid-19) have come from inside the border of China within the last few decades, all due to the disgusting conditions of their wet markets, its time the rest of the world pressures them into shutting those markets down or, at the very least, heavily regulate sanitary conditions.
China should not be able to skip off in to the sunset. They have reeked havoc on people's lives and crippled economies.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

Replies to this message:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 22394
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 375 of 955 (874419)
04-01-2020 12:33 PM
Reply to: Message 360 by Percy
03-31-2020 2:41 PM


Re: Masks Again
Finally at long last: White House task force could soon recommend Americans wear masks - CNNPolitics
Those advising the general public that masks weren't needed were either irresponsible, incompetent or lying. It was and is untrue. The general public needs to include masks as part of the effort to slow the spread of the virus.
Sometimes you'll hear the excuse that advising the general public to wear masks would mean fewer masks for health professionals, who need them more. That may be true, but telling the general public they don't need them is still lying.
There was no point to the lying anyway because too many people were and are telling the truth. The virus can persist in the air for up to a half hour. More than any other organ the virus attacks the lungs, and that's where the air in exhalations comes from. Of course infected people are breathing virus into the air. If an infected person breathes virus out into the air and you walk through that air then you could breath virus back in.
Unfortunately, this article still presents some misleading information:
quote:
...more needs to be done to prevent the spread of the virus by infected people who aren't displaying symptoms. A fabric covering of the nose and mouth could prevent the virus from reaching other people, health experts believe.
This is only true as far as it goes, because it fails to mention that if you're in the presence of an asymptomatic person who is spreading virus into the air, then wearing a face covering could prevent the virus from reaching your nose and mouth. Again, EVERYONE SHOULD BE WEARING MASKS OR AT LEAST A FACIAL COVERING WHEN THEY ARE OUT AMONG OTHER PEOPLE.
We had a minor maintenance emergency this morning that forced me to take a trip to Home Depot. Since I was out and would have to decontaminate upon my return anyway I also visited the gas station and Walmart. I'm happy to report that mask use is increasing. I would estimate mask use at around 10%, maybe a little less. I saw P95 masks (industrial version of N95 mask), homemade masks, bandanas, and winter coats with collars that could be pulled up over the lower face.
We were looking at the town discussion board yesterday and were pleasantly surprised to discover that a number of people have hit upon pretty much same precautions we did with masks and gloves and washing the clothes and taking showers after visiting stores and decontaminating the groceries and so forth. We're still the most extreme in our neighborhood, but not in town.
This virus can kill people of any age. Take extreme precautions, if not for yourself then for the people you might infect.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 360 by Percy, posted 03-31-2020 2:41 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 392 by Percy, posted 04-02-2020 9:27 AM Percy has replied

  
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