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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
jar
Member
Posts: 33897
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 376 of 955 (874420)
04-01-2020 12:41 PM


the relief check
I just got an email that my bank needs my account number before they can accept the Federal check.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 377 by AZPaul3, posted 04-01-2020 2:02 PM jar has taken no action
 Message 378 by dwise1, posted 04-01-2020 2:18 PM jar has taken no action
 Message 379 by anglagard, posted 04-01-2020 2:37 PM jar has replied
 Message 385 by frako, posted 04-01-2020 4:06 PM jar has taken no action
 Message 391 by Hyroglyphx, posted 04-02-2020 9:01 AM jar has taken no action

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6642
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 377 of 955 (874421)
04-01-2020 2:02 PM
Reply to: Message 376 by jar
04-01-2020 12:41 PM


Re: the relief check
SCAM!

Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 376 by jar, posted 04-01-2020 12:41 PM jar has taken no action

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5072
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 378 of 955 (874422)
04-01-2020 2:18 PM
Reply to: Message 376 by jar
04-01-2020 12:41 PM


Re: the relief check
If your bank doesn't know what your account number is, then find another bank that's competent.

IOW, that is obviously a scam. We're going to see a lot of scams like that.

Besides, what I'm hearing is that it will take a few weeks for Munchkin to get around to disbursing those checks. Talk about lack of competence.


This message is a reply to:
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anglagard
Member (Idle past 72 days)
Posts: 2339
From: Socorro, New Mexico USA
Joined: 03-18-2006


Message 379 of 955 (874423)
04-01-2020 2:37 PM
Reply to: Message 376 by jar
04-01-2020 12:41 PM


Re: the relief check
Don't know who was stupid enough to play you as a sucker, but I would report this to all who might listen.

Obvious fraud.


Death is only the end if you assume the story is about you. - Night Vale podcast

This message is a reply to:
 Message 376 by jar, posted 04-01-2020 12:41 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 380 by jar, posted 04-01-2020 3:17 PM anglagard has taken no action
 Message 381 by NosyNed, posted 04-01-2020 3:21 PM anglagard has replied

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33897
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 380 of 955 (874424)
04-01-2020 3:17 PM
Reply to: Message 379 by anglagard
04-01-2020 2:37 PM


Re: the relief check
But they even provided a link to make it easy to update all my information and if I do that I won't have to go to the bank. You may not realize how difficult that would be, I'm old and don't like driving at night and I'm in deep south Texas while my bank is in Brunswick, GA. That's over a thousand miles each way.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8968
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 381 of 955 (874425)
04-01-2020 3:21 PM
Reply to: Message 379 by anglagard
04-01-2020 2:37 PM


Re: the relief check
Obvious fraud.

and Jar obviously knows that .

This message is a reply to:
 Message 379 by anglagard, posted 04-01-2020 2:37 PM anglagard has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 382 by jar, posted 04-01-2020 3:31 PM NosyNed has taken no action
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jar
Member
Posts: 33897
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 382 of 955 (874426)
04-01-2020 3:31 PM
Reply to: Message 381 by NosyNed
04-01-2020 3:21 PM


Re: the relief check
What puzzles me is that these emails work. The scammers send them out BECAUSE it works; people send them money or personal data or bank account numbers or bit coins.

Why? Why are so many folk so unbelievably gullible?

It is as baffling as the reaction to covid-19.

On another forum there is a nutjob going on about how covid-19 was engineered and set loose to bring down the whole world's economy so those in the Deep State can step in afterwards.

How can folk be so utterly stupid?

Edited by jar, : there is an n in bank

Edited by jar, : mor appalin spallin


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 381 by NosyNed, posted 04-01-2020 3:21 PM NosyNed has taken no action

Replies to this message:
 Message 384 by AZPaul3, posted 04-01-2020 4:03 PM jar has replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5072
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 383 of 955 (874427)
04-01-2020 3:50 PM
Reply to: Message 380 by jar
04-01-2020 3:17 PM


Re: the relief check
I almost never use a link provided in an email and even then only if I have very high confidence that it's legit. Instead, I go to the bank's website and log into my account there. Or I get on the phone and call the bank with the number that I look up on my own, not the number provided in the email.

Unfortunately the elderly are common victims.


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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6642
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.2


(2)
Message 384 of 955 (874428)
04-01-2020 4:03 PM
Reply to: Message 382 by jar
04-01-2020 3:31 PM


Re: the relief check
Why? Why are so many folk so unbelievably gullible?

How can folk be so utterly stupid?

They voted for Trump, didn't they?

When you realize how stupid the average American actually is, remember that half the population is stupider than that.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 382 by jar, posted 04-01-2020 3:31 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 387 by jar, posted 04-02-2020 7:48 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
frako
Member
Posts: 2932
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


Message 385 of 955 (874429)
04-01-2020 4:06 PM
Reply to: Message 376 by jar
04-01-2020 12:41 PM


Re: the relief check
dont forget to send them your maiden name, pets name, pin, social security nr, name, surname, date of birth and address. Just to simplify things for them.

Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


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anglagard
Member (Idle past 72 days)
Posts: 2339
From: Socorro, New Mexico USA
Joined: 03-18-2006


Message 386 of 955 (874431)
04-01-2020 9:03 PM
Reply to: Message 381 by NosyNed
04-01-2020 3:21 PM


Re: the relief check
Anglagard writes:

Obvious fraud.

NosyNed writes:

and Jar obviously knows that .

Anglagard in first phrase of post writes:

Don't know who was stupid enough to play you as a sucker

Guess that makes three of us and counting.


Death is only the end if you assume the story is about you. - Night Vale podcast

This message is a reply to:
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jar
Member
Posts: 33897
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 387 of 955 (874433)
04-02-2020 7:48 AM
Reply to: Message 384 by AZPaul3
04-01-2020 4:03 PM


Re: the relief check
Ah, shall we range and play average, mean, median and mode?

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 384 by AZPaul3, posted 04-01-2020 4:03 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 395 by AZPaul3, posted 04-02-2020 10:16 AM jar has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20758
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 388 of 955 (874434)
04-02-2020 8:30 AM
Reply to: Message 370 by Percy
04-01-2020 7:00 AM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
This information comes from ArcGIS Dashboards. Here's the latest graph showing US infections rising to nearly 215,000. The increase declined slightly from yesterday to around 25K:

Here's the latest log graph, the last datapoint indicating today's slightly smaller increase:

Today's number of infections isn't too far off from my projection, but this will be the last day I include this projection. It isn't that the number of infections is a little too variable to project very far out, though that's true. It's more that I don't trust the infection numbers. I think they greatly underestimate reality by about a factor of a thousand and that there are actually around 5 million infected:

DateProjected Number
Infections by Evening
Actual Number
Infections
3/30/2020164,610164,610
3/31/2020185,000189,633
4/1/2020207,000213,400
4/2/2020230,000
4/3/2020254,000
4/4/2020279,000
4/4/2020305,000
4/4/2020332,000

There's another website with data, IHME | COVID-19 Projections, but they project deaths rather than infections:

The two graphs at the top are not consistent with this one. If you project the top two graphs forward to April 15 it yields somewhere in the neighborhood of 600,000 infections, while this graph tells us that deaths will be 32,441 by that date (if you go the webpage the graphs are active and you can hover over them - there's are a selector at the top to select individual states). That's a mortality rate of 5.4%, incredibly high. It's currently around 1.8%.

I think it's safe to assume that the death rate data is more solid since they have a baseline of actual deaths, while the number of infections is a function of testing, which we know is incomplete since they're still making people jump through hoops to get tested in many places. Rather than 600,000 infections by April 15 the actual number will likely be several tens of millions if my belief that the mortality rate is actually around .1% holds up.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 370 by Percy, posted 04-01-2020 7:00 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 390 by PaulK, posted 04-02-2020 9:01 AM Percy has seen this message
 Message 416 by PaulK, posted 04-03-2020 1:47 AM Percy has seen this message
 Message 439 by Percy, posted 04-04-2020 10:46 AM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20758
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 389 of 955 (874435)
04-02-2020 8:57 AM


Viral Load
Why do so many articles about the coronavirus downplay the risk of infection? Many articles stress that keeping a distance of six feet is sufficient and don't seem to worry much about the risk of infection from the air or from grocery store packaging.

This logic comes from experts who are taking viral load into account (see Opinion | These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous). Viral infection and the body's defenses are in a race between how fast the virus can infect versus how fast the body can mount an antibody response.

A large viral dose can establish a base and begin expanding faster than the body's immune system can respond. In this case the patient can become very sick and even die.

A small viral dose that takes longer to establish a base and begin expanding will still cause an immune response which will likely win the battle against the virus, resulting in a patient with mild or no symptoms.

Doctors and nurses working on the front lines come in regular contact with very ill people, they risk large viral doses, and they could become very ill very quickly. People walking around in the grocery store not so much.

The article puts it very succinctly:

quote:
In healthy people, however, immune systems respond as soon as they sense a virus growing inside. Recovery depends on which wins the race: viral spread or immune activation.

And of course viral spread is a function of the initial viral load.

Assuming infection grants immunity perhaps a mild dose is the best defense against the possibility of severe illness. Of course whether this is safe and what the proper dose is would have to be worked out in double blind studies with volunteers, and that would take time, but it could be available well before any vaccine, which is likely about a year and a half out.

--Percy


  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17167
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 390 of 955 (874436)
04-02-2020 9:01 AM
Reply to: Message 388 by Percy
04-02-2020 8:30 AM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
quote:
I think it's safe to assume that the death rate data is more solid since they have a baseline of actual deaths, while the number of infections is a function of testing, which we know is incomplete since they're still making people jump through hoops to get tested in many places.

Deaths are probably also understated, but I think that more of those with severe symptoms will be tested, so the count of deaths will be more accurate than that of infections.

The infection rate still looks roughly linear, just at a higher rate, so I suspect it is still largely due to restrictions on testing.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 388 by Percy, posted 04-02-2020 8:30 AM Percy has seen this message

  
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