Coronavirus and Pandemics

We are often (like nearly daily) required to make quick judgements on information we may see or hear. Most of the time we won't invest much in arriving at our judgement. We simply have better things to do that invest in research.For this, reason we can use some simple rules of thumb to make quick judgements.One of mine is:
If "immunity" is touted in the description of some elixar, exercise or whatever you won't be wrong most of the time if you assign it to the "quackery" pile."Enhancing immunity" is used in advertising because it is difficult for the FDA or real doctors to charge you with fraud. It is a cloudly claim.So when no time is available discard anything making such claims.

Didn't you read where Faith says "nobody knows". You can't use that math stuff to make things up. Faith told you that you can't. Has she ever been wrong?

May I suggest you keep your original ones as well. Just to be fair and admitting to being in error. Error because of the good news that the lockdowns are working. You know, those lockdowns that Trump wants to lift.

The log graph is reducing in slope a bit it looks like (to the fuzzy eyeball) but is it still a nearly straight line with a positive slope.Isn't that exactly what exponential growth looks like on a log graph?

All true. But the behaviour is still exponential isn't it?Or maybe I am remembering wrong and as soon as the log curve starts to slope less it means we are at the inflection point and the exponential curve is turning into the inevitable S (logistic) curve.

and Jar obviously knows that .

Clearly that is what the crazy right sources that Faith used is trying to do. It's hard to actually stop it all but it is easier to fool folks like her into not believing the more valid answers we have. This muddling of the waters is exactly what the Russians have been doing with their misinformation campaigns around the world.Then Faith contributes to the destruction of your society by repeating things that are obviously wrong.

Covid-19’s death toll appears higher than official figures suggest | The EconomistSince I'm not sure if everyone will be able to access this I will summarize:There are graphs that show the daily death rate for a couple of places. These are basically slightly bumpy horizontal lines. For a town in Italy (Nembro) this overs around 1 death per day. For the region around Madrid this sits at 50 per day. For Jan and most (or all of) Feb these are flat and track the 2019 numbers.Then in late Feb or early March the death rate attributed to covid-19 is graphed on top. This pushes the Madrid region to over 100 per day and for Nembro it peaks at over 3 per day.Then added to the graph is the actual total deaths for those places. For the Madrid region this peaks at about 175 per day and for Nembro almost 10 per day.The timing and shape of the actual deaths per day peaks track over the attributed to covid deaths per day very exactly.This strongly suggests that the covid deaths are being under reported by 2 or 3 times.

Did you say you'd kill 2 million people so you can more conveniently buy a phone?

The US does have way more deaths than any other country but that is an unreasonable comparison. It should be done on a per capita basis.
The figures for April 20th on that basis were: (deaths per million)
San Marion 1,149 (but that is only 39 deaths so more bad stats than anything meaningful)
Belgium 503
Andora 479 (another small sample)
Spain 446
Italy 339
France 310
UK 243
Saint Martin 233 (another small sample)
Netherlands 219
Switzerland 165
Sweden 156
Ireland 139
Channel Islands 138
USA 128So the US is not the worst it is very high on the list of larger countries though.
From here in Vancouver, I compare Canada and the US (like everyone does). We are at 45 per million or just about 1/3 of the US's. That spread will grow dramatically in the next month.Source:COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Over a large enough area you are almost for sure correct.There are parts of Vancouver that are very, very dense though so for a few sq miles there might be a tie.

The area just west of downtown in Vancouver (The west end) is at a density of 61,700 per sq mile. So close.

We are trying to explain some numbers. Namely the rate of infection in India. We are, without questioning it, accepting that the number is correct.That is another explanation for the anomaly. That is, that the anomaly isn't there. The testing may be inadequate or the particular test used maybe full of false negatives.In India the number for deaths may be even less reliable than it is in more developed countries also. And even in Europe the deaths are probably undercounted.

If it is 0.5 and the seasonal flu is 0.1 of infected patients then it is still terrible.
If flu really* is over 60,000 deaths in the USA then the above death rate suggests 300,000 deaths.* I have read some stuff which suggests that flu deaths are badly estimated and may not be anywhere near 0.1.
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges - Scientific American Blog NetworkAs a small aside: CNN has reported an updated projection of 74,000 US deaths by August 8. I haven't seen that change this week. WTF? The current figure is 65,000 and at the current rate it'll be over the 74,000 in a week.

I've been using this site:
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - WorldometerClicking on a country breaks that country's numbers down by smaller unit. It sorts by clicking on column headings.