Coronavirus and Pandemics

Grafica De Casos Confirmados De CoronaVirus Fuera De China - GifsCoolReally shows how much delayed action has endangered the US population:Remember that there is a 2 week incubation period, so this shows a 2 week delay from infection.Watch the US go from the bottom to the top in one month. Watch S.Korea go from the top to off the bottom in the same month. The first in country cases were reported at the same time, S. Korea acted, Trump did notSee Italy and Spain surge to high numbers ... scary.So much winning ... #SoMuchWinningEnjoyEdited by RAZD, : fixed image

Tiger At NYC Zoo Tests Positive For Coronavirus - TPM – Talking Points Memo

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NEW YORK (AP) A tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the new coronavirus, in what is believed to be the first known infection in an animal in the U.S. or a tiger anywhere, federal officials and the zoo said Sunday.

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The 4-year-old Malayan tiger named Nadia and six other tigers and lions that have also fallen ill are believed to have been infected by a zoo employee who wasn’t yet showing symptoms, the zoo said. The first animal started showing symptoms March 27, and all are doing well and expected to recover, said the zoo, which has been closed to the public since March 16 amid the surging coronavirus outbreak in New York.

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More at source.Moose

https://www.nbcnews.com/...rus-deaths-one-day-china-n1178121, says one headline. Italy Weighs Steps to Join Europe’s Cautious Virus Reopening, says another. Wuhan Emerges From Lockdown With a Mission: Our Goal Is Survival, says yet another.How are they going to this?Even if as many as 10% of the population has been infected and is now immune, that is nowhere near enough for herd immunity. As soon as their people begin interacting normally again the virus will become a pandemic again.The articles describe vague containment strategies, like "protection for workers" and "restrictions" but doesn't say what those mean. Masks? Gloves? Hand sanitizer? Social distancing? More testing? All of them? Some of them? What?One article quotes an Italian virologist mentioning social distancing and masks. What does that mean for bars and restaurants? For workers where workstations line long tables mere inches apart?I've heard that grocery store workers are beginning to become infected in disproportionate numbers, one from Trader Joe's and two from Walmart dying. I've been stunned at our local grocery store to be checking out in mask and gloves with a checker with no mask and no gloves. At PetSmart the checker had gloves but no mask, but they had added a table alongside the checkout counter to make sure you couldn't get closer to the checker than about five feet.It's going to be difficult reopening. Viral spread is proportional to the level of human interaction. With no vaccine in sight, when human interaction picks up so will the virus.--Percy

Analysis: At least half of covid-19 patients on ventilators don’t make it, reports the Washington Post.Here's some genuinely fake but very believable news: Kushner halves states ventilator requests, says should only use on patients who will survive--Percy

a more complete and up to date version, along with similar for deaths can be viewed atThese Striking Animated Charts Show How the Coronavirus Pandemic Has Unfolded so FarEnjoy

Here's today's graph of infections in the US: The website with the mortality projections (COVID-19) has been updated to April 5, here's their graph: Here's the table updated through April 5: The error should increase as we get further from April 1, the date of the original projection, but the error so far ranges from 1.7% to 4.4%. We do know a lot more than nothing. It isn't just hypothetical speculation. Notice that their projection substantially undercuts the Trump administration's projections of 100,000-240,000. By the end of May we will see how well a two month old projection held up over time.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Get date of mortality data correct, 4/5/2020.

Opinion | What We Pretend to Know About the Coronavirus Could Kill Us - The New York Times is not about masks but about how well-meaning institutions can promulgate false information with good intentions, but it does mention how the need for masks by the general public was misrepresented by both the CDC and the WHO.There's still a couple pieces of false information about masks still being promulgated out there:

• One piece of false information is the implication that the general public doesn't get a benefit from higher quality masks. This is absolutely false. The better the mask the better the protection against the coronavirus, no matter whether a member of the general public or a front-line medical professional.
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  This false messaging is driven by the fact that N95 masks provide a greater benefit to front-line medical professionals than to the general public because of their much greater exposure risk. And there was the additional motivation of wanting to prevent the general public from soaking up N95 masks, leaving fewer available to medical professionals. These are highly legitimate concerns, but they don't justify lying.
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  But the same distinction is still driving the CDC and the WHO to lie to the public, saying that the general public only needs homemade cloth masks or scarfs or bandanas while only front-line medical professionals need N95 masks. This is false and a lie. Again, the better the mask the greater the benefit. The front-line medical professionals might get the greater benefit, but that doesn't mean that N95 masks aren't better for the general public, too. The only reason they're circulating this false information is because of the shortage of N95 masks. If there were billions of N95 masks out there they would be advising that everyone wear them.
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• The other piece of false information is that while everyone should wear masks in public that it's only to prevent those who are unknowingly infected from spreading disease. This is false. Any mask that can prevent virus from exiting someone's mouth or nose can also prevent virus from entering. Spreading infection requires both a sender and receiver. By putting masks on everyone we prevent virus from entering or leaving any mouth or nose.

The article repeats what I've been saying all along when it quotes University of North Carolina professor Zeynep Tufekci: What should the authorities have said? The full painful truth.We're not sheep. It's often obvious when we're being lied to. We do have a little grey matter available to us, we should use it. These lies are usually obvious after a little logical thinking.I'll mention the contrary position, too. Logical thinking will often lead one astray when one has insufficient information. The experts often have more information than we do as well as a greater mastery of it. But we shouldn't meekly accept their advice simply because of this, because that would be the fallacy of argument from authority. If the experts make their information and analysis available then we should listen, but if they don't then we should consider their advice suspect if it doesn't align with our own careful thinking.--Percy

Would you like the article to list the exact measures being taken in every jurisdiction?For starters, almost nowhere is completely closed down. Millions of people are still going to work. Starting to ease restrictions put in place due to coronavirus can simply mean moving to the slightly less restrictive regulations in place in the country next door.We are one of the countries cautiously reopening. This means that as of today people are allowed to take off their masks in order to run or cycle. It means that we just allowed a few more shops to reopen, and next week a few more (stationary shops, for example). It means that people are now allowed to leave the country if they need to for work, medical treatment, or family reasons - though they would be subject to two weeks quarantine on return.I will not be going to back to the office for some time, as people whose work can be done with a laptop and a phone are going to be amongst the last to be allowed to return. Bars and restaurants all remain closed for now.Restrictions are going to be slowly and gradually lifted. Should the rate of hospital admissions start to rise again, restrictions will be reimposed. They are working on implemented a more selective quarantine response in particular areas.This is part of the 'dance' discussed in the article someone posted. We can't keep people locked up for a year or two until we have a vaccine. Here, at least, they're also hoping for more spread of the virus, so as to build up immunity amongst the general population.

Here's the total infections graph for Czechia showing that the number infected is still increasing, but the rate of increase appears to be slowing. The most recent data point is from April 5: Czechia's approximately 5000 total infections is about .05% of the 10.65 million population, lower but not all that different than other countries, such as Italy's .2%, Germany's .1% and the U.S.'s .1%. If the Czechia approach is similar to that followed by Germany and Iceland of very widespread testing, thorough investigations, and strict quarantining of infected and exposed individuals, then loosening things up might work for you.Here in the states we're still unable to perform enough tests, and medical professionals cannot get enough PPE. The mortality rate in some regions is already straining resources. New York City is experiencing a severe shortage of ventilators, right now getting by with shipping ventilators between hospitals according to greatest need, but they'll soon be using 100% of available ventilators and then doctors will be forced to decide who gets a ventilator. An interesting statistic appeared in the news yesterday, that only around half of those placed on ventilators survive. It didn't say how many survive among those who need a ventilator but can't get one, but it can't be good.If/when the virus reaches rural regions it could be very bad because they have many fewer ICU beds and ventilators per capita than urban regions.While we're a couple hundred miles from New York City and less than a hundred from Boston, the local hospitals are already beginning to fill up. They're augmenting the medical personnel by recruiting from the retired ranks and from the medically trained but otherwise employed ranks. As an example of what the medical volunteers do, they just sent a team of them up to Concord to go through an assisted living facility and test all the residents.A couple of days ago a number of news articles reported that there was likely a substantial undercounting of coronavirus deaths in the U.S. because of people who died without ever having a test. I believe I reported a couple weeks ago that I suspected my daughter's SO's grandfather had died of coronavirus even though the cause of death was listed as pneumonia. He lived in a state that had a very low count of infected individuals at the time nearly a month ago, around 20 or so, so they never suspected it.--Percy

I worry that when the infection numbers level off people will think it'll be safe to resume "normal" life, not realizing that it means people still being infected.This graph is nice, and it is comforting to think we are getting a handle on it, but we also need to be aware of the total numbers of people that are infected, the total number dead, the total number that recovered.We also need to know the percentage of infected in the population and what that means for personal protection measures.Korea never regulated/ordered face mask use, they recommended it and the people willingly followed that recommendations because they trusted that it was in their best interest.Now some sad news

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Coronavirus: Cats highly susceptible to infection, study finds | The Independent | The Independent

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Coronavirus can be transmitted between cats, a study has confirmed, days after reports that a pet in Belgium had been infected with the disease.

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Researchers at the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute in China found the animals are highly susceptible to the infection.

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Lab experiments conducted on a small number of cats found they can transmit the illness to one another through respiratory droplets.

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I had been skeptical of reports of pets being immune. This means that they can be carriers.Note to Faith: I had only heard this virus being labeled "coronavirus" until the medical people started using Covid-19. I have now seen increased violent attacks on people of asian descent because of the "china virus" label. Words matter: some Americans are so ignorant that many thought coronavirus was from the beer. At least it couldn't be used to justify racist attacks.Enjoy

Or put a bag over your head (with cutouts to see) ... recommended for people in denial about using a mask. We've converted our back porch into an "airlock" so we can hang coats and change shoes, leaving the masks and gloves ... and try to limit outings so that they can have the time to kill the virus.For gloves, I would think that getting a pair of kitchen gloves, and when you get home wash them in the same way recommended for hand washing. I have rubber boots that can be washed.Also a tip from a specialist: drink warm drinks to help flush any virus you've inhaled down into your stomach where the acids kill it. A cuppa after your shower when you get home from shopping is nice.EnjoyEdited by RAZD, : warm fluids

I have no problem with that way of putting it but other ignorant people, speaking of ignorant people, or more likely malicious people, politically sick people, called Trump a racist for using it perfectly innocently. The Left is going to bury the country, just as Khruschev (sp?) once said he would. Just everybody stop with the PC namecalling at least while any one of us could get this virus and die.I just realized this morning that Boris Johnson is only 55 and he's in ICU, may not die of course but he's a lot younger than I am, in fact he's only a few years older than my daughter and son in law and all my brother's kids. My brother and his wife and I are all in the high risk age group and we all have risk factors of one sort or another. I'd like to figure out how to spare him bringing me groceries and taking out the trash for me since I can't do it. His wife is making masks. I'm sure she'll give me one, maybe tomorrow which is my birthday, another big scary birthday. Edited by Faith, : No reason given.Edited by Faith, : No reason given.

Here's today's graph of infections in the US: I'm going to have to abandon my tracking of the projections at COVID-19. While I did record all their mortality projections for April and May, I assumed that once the data was known for a given day that it would never change, but that's not so. For example, yesterday's graph said that 10,571 died on 4/5, but today's graph says that 9,601 died on that day. I must not understand what they're trying to accomplish.At any rate, they have some very good news in that the projection of total deaths by August 2 has dropped from 81,766 to 60,415. The tan region represents error bars that say that the number of deaths by August 2 could be as low as 31,000 and as high as 127,000. Here's today's graph, the last time I'll show it: This is the second failed attempt at projecting growth rates forward. I originally projected an exponential growth rate forward on the very day that it took a more linear track, so I shifted to a projection that I thought would have a stronger mathematical foundation, but I didn't realize that they would modify their projection according to the data every day, including even data points from the past.Clearly it's possible to project a week forward with very good accuracy, but each day brings increasing drift from the actual numbers. That's precisely what you would expect, but I lack the underlying data to make accurate projections, and the online projection I chose to use is modifying past data, which perhaps they have a good reason for but that I cannot myself explain.--Percy

By the way I hear the news reports about the Nevada counts every hour and I can never remember them, but I do know that in Washoe County where I live we have 31 Recovered. It's good to know that number becausew presumably the more of them we have the sooner we can reopen things and the more people will be available for various jobs without risk to others too.

Dont you want to emulate your dear leader Donald Trump, he is not and wont be wearing a mask.And happy birthday.