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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
ramoss
Member (Idle past 633 days)
Posts: 3228
Joined: 08-11-2004


(2)
Message 601 of 955 (875278)
04-20-2020 12:12 PM
Reply to: Message 593 by LamarkNewAge
04-19-2020 5:30 PM


Re: About to cross 40,000 deaths April 19. USA
That seems to be rather unsympathetic. Do you know what that 2Million would mean? It would mean husbands and wives, and children and brothers. Those are not just numbers, those are people.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 593 by LamarkNewAge, posted 04-19-2020 5:30 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 602 of 955 (875287)
04-21-2020 12:10 AM
Reply to: Message 593 by LamarkNewAge
04-19-2020 5:30 PM


Re: About to cross 40,000 deaths April 19. USA
THE SHUT down is worse than the dreadful virus.... This virus is so bad, but I would take 2 million deaths a year over the shut down. We need to prepare better next time.Not that this dreadful virus will ever end.
The United States of America, a country that spends gazillions of dollars on a defense budget dreaming up possible scenarios and probes for inner weaknesses to be exploited by her enemies has an infection rate that is nearly SIX times worse than the second worst, Spain. Now, you could make the argument that the US is more populated but you could also make the argument that its not nearly densely populated than Spain is. And yet you can find Covid cases in nearly every single county in the United States.
The lack of preparation for an epidemic, let alone a pandemic, is astonishing to me. That ventilators, masks, gloves, and various supplies aren't stashed all throughout the country is laughable to me.
That airplanes are STILL, right now, flying, is astonishing to me. If we had done the right thing from the get-go, which is shut down the airspace and immediately contain, is why we are in a protracted misery that is definitely going to lead to a recession, millions of businesses closing forever, millions of unemployed into the foreseeable future, AND the fact that Covid-19 will now be with us forever.
Make no mistake, this another influenza. Stopping influenza is like trying to stop the wind. Its basically an impossible task. The best you can do is create a vaccine based on probability that X strain of the Flu virus will be the most prevalent during flu season. Covid will be no different.
Since we are so far behind the curve, we are stuck between a rock and a hard place. If you open the economy back up you can guarantee that cases will dramatically increase to the point where New York is basically everywhere in the country. At some point the healthcare system everywhere is overwhelmed, people start dying, people get very sick, the economy stops or slows down so substantially that what difference does it make at this point now that its "back open?"
The other problem is if we continue to wait indefinitely for the curve to flatten, you've now shut down a economy for 6 months or longer. How the fuck do you expect the entire planet to bounce back from that economically?
There's just no good answers.
But I know this much.... there are countries doing exceptionally well:
- Greece
- Taiwan
- Hong Kong
- Singapore
and possibly a few others. Because they did the opposite of what this retarded, supposedly superior nation did. They were aggressive, they took decisive action, and developed a strategy. The US's strategy is throwing their hands in the air and pointing fingers.
Let me tell you something, all of our enemies are now seriously considering a biological attack as a strategy for defeating the US because of how unbelievably unprepared they are to withstand that kind of an attack.
I am disgusted and amazed at the magnitude of incompetence. They should have treated this as seriously as a war invasion and as an existential threat.
And one last thing to consider.... can you imagine if this was Ebola that got out like this, which nearly did a few years ago? That thing has like an 85% kill rate. You can just expect a total reset of humanity back to the stone age. There would be about 500 million survivors on the entire planet and life would be altered beyond repair. Electrical grid? What's that? Planes? What are those? The computer I'm typing on, a paper weight. What's the internet?
If you don't think that can happen you are a damned fool.... and so is every country who is underprepared now.
This planet had better learn the lesson of a lifetime about how to deal with pandemics. We have had so much warning about this eventuality and we kicked the can down the road. Its inexcusable.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 593 by LamarkNewAge, posted 04-19-2020 5:30 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 603 by NosyNed, posted 04-21-2020 10:54 AM Hyroglyphx has replied
 Message 606 by ramoss, posted 04-21-2020 5:59 PM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 9003
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 603 of 955 (875290)
04-21-2020 10:54 AM
Reply to: Message 602 by Hyroglyphx
04-21-2020 12:10 AM


Comparisons
The US does have way more deaths than any other country but that is an unreasonable comparison. It should be done on a per capita basis.
The figures for April 20th on that basis were: (deaths per million)
San Marion 1,149 (but that is only 39 deaths so more bad stats than anything meaningful)
Belgium 503
Andora 479 (another small sample)
Spain 446
Italy 339
France 310
UK 243
Saint Martin 233 (another small sample)
Netherlands 219
Switzerland 165
Sweden 156
Ireland 139
Channel Islands 138
USA 128
So the US is not the worst it is very high on the list of larger countries though.
From here in Vancouver, I compare Canada and the US (like everyone does). We are at 45 per million or just about 1/3 of the US's. That spread will grow dramatically in the next month.
Source:COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

This message is a reply to:
 Message 602 by Hyroglyphx, posted 04-21-2020 12:10 AM Hyroglyphx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 604 by Hyroglyphx, posted 04-21-2020 2:59 PM NosyNed has not replied
 Message 605 by frako, posted 04-21-2020 5:22 PM NosyNed has not replied
 Message 607 by ramoss, posted 04-21-2020 6:00 PM NosyNed has replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 604 of 955 (875295)
04-21-2020 2:59 PM
Reply to: Message 603 by NosyNed
04-21-2020 10:54 AM


Re: Comparisons
The US does have way more deaths than any other country but that is an unreasonable comparison. It should be done on a per capita basis.
I was referring to rate of infections, not necessarily deaths. The US has almost six times the amount of Covid positive cases than its closest competitor -- Spain, followed closely by Italy. I agree that per capita is the only way to accurately measure it since the US has a much higher population than Spain. However, Spain is more densely populated that the US. The United States is expansive and yet the virus has managed to travel to almost every county in the nation.
India should be completely engulfed by now because of its unbelievably high population density, but it isn't. Their cases like almost everyone else are growing, but they have done a much better job of containment. People actually respect the shelter in place order unlike the US which continues to throw caution to the wind.
My main point is that this highlights how underprepared so many nations are. The US trains hard and places a huge financial emphasis on its military capabilities but failed to accurately estimate the potential of a virus.
As we've now seen, the virus doesn't have to infect everyone directly to make a substantial impact. The ancillary effects of the virus has infected the entire planet by stretching thin the healthcare system, by invading and destabilizing the world's economy, etc. Every fabric of our life has been infected whether we have actually contracted the virus or not.
Taiwan learned a big lesson with SARS and was much better prepared when Covid hit. God help any nation that doesn't learn from this. If Ebola had gotten out the way Covid has it would be an existential threat to humanity. And there's nothing saying that it can't. in the future Preparedness and containment is the only way out.
Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 603 by NosyNed, posted 04-21-2020 10:54 AM NosyNed has not replied

  
frako
Member (Idle past 326 days)
Posts: 2932
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


Message 605 of 955 (875302)
04-21-2020 5:22 PM
Reply to: Message 603 by NosyNed
04-21-2020 10:54 AM


Re: Comparisons
Lets wait a few weeks and the US will be nr 1 per capita too.

Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand
What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 603 by NosyNed, posted 04-21-2020 10:54 AM NosyNed has not replied

  
ramoss
Member (Idle past 633 days)
Posts: 3228
Joined: 08-11-2004


(1)
Message 606 of 955 (875303)
04-21-2020 5:59 PM
Reply to: Message 602 by Hyroglyphx
04-21-2020 12:10 AM


Re: About to cross 40,000 deaths April 19. USA
Two years ago, Trump disbanded the pandemic response team that Obama put into place because of swine flu and ebola.
Here's the difference

This message is a reply to:
 Message 602 by Hyroglyphx, posted 04-21-2020 12:10 AM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
ramoss
Member (Idle past 633 days)
Posts: 3228
Joined: 08-11-2004


Message 607 of 955 (875304)
04-21-2020 6:00 PM
Reply to: Message 603 by NosyNed
04-21-2020 10:54 AM


Re: Comparisons
Another thing is to consider population density. I don't know of any place in Canada that is packed so full of people as the greater metropolitan NY area.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 603 by NosyNed, posted 04-21-2020 10:54 AM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 608 by NosyNed, posted 04-22-2020 12:14 AM ramoss has not replied
 Message 614 by Hyroglyphx, posted 04-22-2020 11:21 AM ramoss has not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 9003
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 608 of 955 (875307)
04-22-2020 12:14 AM
Reply to: Message 607 by ramoss
04-21-2020 6:00 PM


Pop density
Over a large enough area you are almost for sure correct.
There are parts of Vancouver that are very, very dense though so for a few sq miles there might be a tie.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 607 by ramoss, posted 04-21-2020 6:00 PM ramoss has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 609 by Percy, posted 04-22-2020 9:53 AM NosyNed has replied
 Message 613 by Hyroglyphx, posted 04-22-2020 11:16 AM NosyNed has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22480
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 609 of 955 (875311)
04-22-2020 9:53 AM
Reply to: Message 608 by NosyNed
04-22-2020 12:14 AM


Re: Pop density
NosyNed writes:
There are parts of Vancouver that are very, very dense though so for a few sq miles there might be a tie.
Turns out the information for comparisons is easily available. The densest part of New York City is Manhattan at 66,940 people per square mile. It sounds like a lot but it isn't. If you spread that many people evenly across a square mile they'd be about 20 feet apart. The odds are good that many corners of Vancouver are much denser than that.
Of course, many corners of Manhattan are also denser than that. Way denser. Steinway Tower's on a 60-foot base with 77 apartments. If about 4 people live in each apartment for a total of 300 residents then that's a density of over 2 million people per square mile.
For the curious, prices for apartments in Steinway Tower (most have views of Central Park) begin around $30 million. The penthouse is over $200 million.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 608 by NosyNed, posted 04-22-2020 12:14 AM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 615 by NosyNed, posted 04-22-2020 11:35 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2318
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 610 of 955 (875312)
04-22-2020 10:29 AM


It is now proven that California had the first deaths weeks before Feb 29 in Washi
NBC just reported the evidence.

Replies to this message:
 Message 612 by PaulK, posted 04-22-2020 11:11 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
GDR
Member
Posts: 6202
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005
Member Rating: 2.1


(1)
Message 611 of 955 (875314)
04-22-2020 11:02 AM


Results in New Zealand
New Zealand cracked down hard and early and hind sight shows they were right.
New Zealand Covid19 Report

He has told you, O man, what is good ; And what does the LORD require of you But to do justice, to love kindness, And to walk humbly with your God.
Micah 6:8

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 612 of 955 (875315)
04-22-2020 11:11 AM
Reply to: Message 610 by LamarkNewAge
04-22-2020 10:29 AM


Re: It is now proven that California had the first deaths weeks before Feb 29 in Washi
BBC
Autopsies on two people who died on 6 February and 17 February show they died with Covid-19.
Still no evidence of Faith’s hypothetical November outbreak.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 610 by LamarkNewAge, posted 04-22-2020 10:29 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 613 of 955 (875316)
04-22-2020 11:16 AM
Reply to: Message 608 by NosyNed
04-22-2020 12:14 AM


Re: Pop density
There are parts of Vancouver that are very, very dense though so for a few sq miles there might be a tie.
Places like New York, Istanbul, London, Montreal, etc are population dense... and yes, parts of Vancouver are very dense.
Its interesting. Los Angeles is hugely populated but it is more of a sprawling metropolis. Same with Houston. Lots of people but they aren't crammed in on top of one another like the places above are. They have thousands of cases, but not tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands like the densely populated urban area metropolises do. There has to be something to that. Obviously that is what happened in Wuhan, a country of several million living on top of one another.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 608 by NosyNed, posted 04-22-2020 12:14 AM NosyNed has not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 614 of 955 (875317)
04-22-2020 11:21 AM
Reply to: Message 607 by ramoss
04-21-2020 6:00 PM


Re: Comparisons
Another thing is to consider population density. I don't know of any place in Canada that is packed so full of people as the greater metropolitan NY area.
Montreal and Toronto aren't quite as dense as NYC, but they are comparable with Chicago which is still very dense. Consequently, Quebec has been the hardest hit in Canada. We can surmise that the overwhelming majority of those cases are coming from inside the densely populated city of Montreal.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 607 by ramoss, posted 04-21-2020 6:00 PM ramoss has not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 9003
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 615 of 955 (875318)
04-22-2020 11:35 AM
Reply to: Message 609 by Percy
04-22-2020 9:53 AM


Re: Pop density
The area just west of downtown in Vancouver (The west end) is at a density of 61,700 per sq mile. So close.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 609 by Percy, posted 04-22-2020 9:53 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
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