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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 631 of 955 (875501)
04-27-2020 12:46 PM
Reply to: Message 629 by Percy
04-27-2020 11:14 AM


Re: The Latest Data
While deaths represent a near real-time approximation of reality, the other numbers, new case and new hospitalizations are reflections of what was happening two weeks to a month ago. Further, the number of deaths are subject to classification errors and yes, classification bias.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 629 by Percy, posted 04-27-2020 11:14 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Big_Al35
Member (Idle past 799 days)
Posts: 389
Joined: 06-02-2010


Message 632 of 955 (875535)
04-28-2020 5:28 AM
Reply to: Message 628 by Percy
04-27-2020 10:29 AM


Re: The Testing Issue
Percy writes:
you apparently think a sample size of one observer of how many known infected people there are is somehow meaningful
It may seem that asking one person this question is not significant, but what if I had asked a hundred people or a thousand - and what if I had asked them all individually. The sample size would then be more meaningful and could be used for extrapolation.
As it happens, even though I had asked you personally, several others offered their own experiences voluntarily - already adding to the sample size.
Why prejudge the intention of the question in this way and bite my head off like that. The only reason I can imagine is that you are confident that I could not have asked this question to a hundred people and certainly not a thousand because they too would have bitten my head off. Such is the nature of society today.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 628 by Percy, posted 04-27-2020 10:29 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 633 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2020 7:58 AM Big_Al35 has replied
 Message 661 by Percy, posted 05-02-2020 8:57 PM Big_Al35 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 633 of 955 (875538)
04-28-2020 7:58 AM
Reply to: Message 632 by Big_Al35
04-28-2020 5:28 AM


Re: The Testing Issue
We are close to 1m cases of Covid-19 in the USA. That is one case in every 330 people.
Do you know 330 people well enough to be privy to their state of health? The usual circle of friends close enough to you that you would know when they have a cold or when they are feeling low on a regular basis is less than 20. And it gets smaller the older you get. At that rate you’d have to question some 16+ people to find one who is personally close to a Covid-19 case and the concentration of hot spots in the landscape means you would have to go multiple times that number to find the one.
You’re a conspiracy nut case, Al. We know this from your past participation. I can see, having been privy to the shenanigans of today’s conspiracy rabble on the net, that you are apparently maneuvering to say since so few people here, or anywhere, know personally of a Covid-19 case, that this big problem is really no problem at all. That the whole pandemic thing is overblown if not an outright hoax perpetrated by the globalist elite or the reptilians or the Girl Scouts or something and that 50,000 dead is either no big deal or is a lie.
Such is the nature of society today.
Is this were you are going? Do you have some other reasoning for your questions that you care to share?

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 632 by Big_Al35, posted 04-28-2020 5:28 AM Big_Al35 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 636 by Hyroglyphx, posted 04-28-2020 12:43 PM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 638 by Big_Al35, posted 04-28-2020 4:53 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
GDR
Member
Posts: 6202
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005
Member Rating: 1.9


(1)
Message 634 of 955 (875543)
04-28-2020 9:48 AM


India rate low
There is a low rate of infection in India for unknown reasons.
Covid19 in India
AbE I wonder if it is because in so much of the rest of the world we have our flu shots and our use of anti-biotics to the degree that we do has weakened our auto-immune systems.
Edited by GDR, : No reason given.

He has told you, O man, what is good ; And what does the LORD require of you But to do justice, to love kindness, And to walk humbly with your God.
Micah 6:8

Replies to this message:
 Message 635 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2020 11:56 AM GDR has replied
 Message 642 by Coragyps, posted 04-28-2020 10:18 PM GDR has not replied
 Message 643 by nwr, posted 04-29-2020 12:00 AM GDR has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 635 of 955 (875546)
04-28-2020 11:56 AM
Reply to: Message 634 by GDR
04-28-2020 9:48 AM


Re: India rate low
Vaccines don't weaken our immune systems, they strengthen it. They cause the immune system to develop antibodies for the pathogen in a less hostile manner then a full infection by the bacteria or virus would produce.
Misuse of antibiotics doesn't weaken our immune systems but strengthens the evolutionary development of the bacteria's antibiotic resistance which leads to our immune systems having to adapt to yet another strain of the bacteria in a full out infection which is often too strong to avoid the most severe symptoms. Antibiotics have to do with bacteria only and have no effect on a virus like SARS-CoV-2 at all.
Neither of these explains the India situation vis-a-vis the rest of the world.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 634 by GDR, posted 04-28-2020 9:48 AM GDR has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 640 by GDR, posted 04-28-2020 6:32 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


(2)
Message 636 of 955 (875548)
04-28-2020 12:43 PM
Reply to: Message 633 by AZPaul3
04-28-2020 7:58 AM


Re: The Testing Issue
an outright hoax perpetrated by the globalist elite or the reptilians or the Girl Scouts
Oh shit, he knows.... Night Falcon to Easy Rider.... initiate Operation THIN MINT immediately!
Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.

"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 633 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2020 7:58 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 637 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2020 1:44 PM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 637 of 955 (875550)
04-28-2020 1:44 PM
Reply to: Message 636 by Hyroglyphx
04-28-2020 12:43 PM


Re: The Testing Issue
Oooo. I love thin mints.

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 636 by Hyroglyphx, posted 04-28-2020 12:43 PM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
Big_Al35
Member (Idle past 799 days)
Posts: 389
Joined: 06-02-2010


Message 638 of 955 (875556)
04-28-2020 4:53 PM
Reply to: Message 633 by AZPaul3
04-28-2020 7:58 AM


Re: The Testing Issue
AZPaul3 writes:
Do you have some other reasoning for your questions that you care to share?
Actually, I wasn't steering the conversation in any direction. I know it's hard to believe right. It was a straight forward question that deserves a straight forward answer.
It doesn't even matter whether my question was a good one or a bad one because what it is most fascinating and interesting was the response to it. It mirrors what a top conspiracy journalist once wrote when he stated - "Can't win the debate? Then don't have it".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 633 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2020 7:58 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 639 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2020 5:11 PM Big_Al35 has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 639 of 955 (875557)
04-28-2020 5:11 PM
Reply to: Message 638 by Big_Al35
04-28-2020 4:53 PM


Re: The Testing Issue
So you weren't asking to make a point or to further a debate but to troll.
Got it.

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 638 by Big_Al35, posted 04-28-2020 4:53 PM Big_Al35 has not replied

  
GDR
Member
Posts: 6202
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005
Member Rating: 1.9


Message 640 of 955 (875559)
04-28-2020 6:32 PM
Reply to: Message 635 by AZPaul3
04-28-2020 11:56 AM


Re: India rate low
AZPaul3 writes:
Vaccines don't weaken our immune systems, they strengthen it. They cause the immune system to develop antibodies for the pathogen in a less hostile manner then a full infection by the bacteria or virus would produce.
Misuse of antibiotics doesn't weaken our immune systems but strengthens the evolutionary development of the bacteria's antibiotic resistance which leads to our immune systems having to adapt to yet another strain of the bacteria in a full out infection which is often too strong to avoid the most severe symptoms. Antibiotics have to do with bacteria only and have no effect on a virus like SARS-CoV-2 at all.
Neither of these explains the India situation vis-a-vis the rest of the world.
As usual I am discussing this from a position of ignorance but the vaccines strengthen our immune systems for a certain set of viruses. However, might not that weaken our resistance to other viruses such as Covid19?
Also I don't think that there is much doubt that we have over used anti-biotics and the bacteria has simply mutated, (one of the more rapid examples of evolution as I understand it), so that the anti-biotics are less effective than they would be if they weren't used so much.

He has told you, O man, what is good ; And what does the LORD require of you But to do justice, to love kindness, And to walk humbly with your God.
Micah 6:8

This message is a reply to:
 Message 635 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2020 11:56 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 641 by AZPaul3, posted 04-28-2020 9:00 PM GDR has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 641 of 955 (875563)
04-28-2020 9:00 PM
Reply to: Message 640 by GDR
04-28-2020 6:32 PM


Re: India rate low
the vaccines strengthen our immune systems for a certain set of viruses. However, might not that weaken our resistance to other viruses such as Covid19?
No. The immune system doesn't care how many bugs it has to defend against. You have millions of bugs in your body all day every day and immunity ready to go for many millions more. When a new bug comes along, if there is no vaccine to give the body a taste and gain an immunity the comfortable easy way, then you will gain immunity the old fashioned hard way, if you survive.
It takes time for the immune system to gear up to fight a new bug. Some of our most dangerous bugs can do a lot a damage, and kill, before the immune system catches up. That's why vaccines are so effective. The body already knows this bug and doesn't need to go through its analysis and initial antibody production which can take days to accomplish. From exposure through a vaccine the antibody plans are already on the shelf ready to go within a few hours.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 640 by GDR, posted 04-28-2020 6:32 PM GDR has not replied

  
Coragyps
Member (Idle past 734 days)
Posts: 5553
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002


Message 642 of 955 (875564)
04-28-2020 10:18 PM
Reply to: Message 634 by GDR
04-28-2020 9:48 AM


Re: India rate low
A 100% ignorant speculation: has some non-identified coronavirus circulated on the Indian subcontinent in the last couple of decades? One with very mild disease symptoms, but one that confers some immunity to this one?
(Aside) Dr Birx, could you look into this?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 634 by GDR, posted 04-28-2020 9:48 AM GDR has not replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6408
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 643 of 955 (875566)
04-29-2020 12:00 AM
Reply to: Message 634 by GDR
04-28-2020 9:48 AM


Re: India rate low
There is a low rate of infection in India for unknown reasons.
There is probably less international travel by people from India.
AbE I wonder if it is because in so much of the rest of the world we have our flu shots and our use of anti-biotics to the degree that we do has weakened our auto-immune systems.
I agree with the response by AZPaul3. However, I have wondered about similar possibilities. There are other corona viruses. And perhaps recent exposure to those gives some partial immunity resulting in a milder case of covid-19. And it could be that older people here are more seriously affected, because they are less exposed to those other corona viruses due to meeting fewer other people and fewer school age children.
But this is wild speculation.

Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 634 by GDR, posted 04-28-2020 9:48 AM GDR has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 644 by dwise1, posted 04-29-2020 2:00 AM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5930
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.8


Message 644 of 955 (875568)
04-29-2020 2:00 AM
Reply to: Message 643 by nwr
04-29-2020 12:00 AM


Re: India rate low
Another point of wild speculation: India's lack of toilets.
I saw a documentary (not the Netflix "Inside Bill Gate's Mind" episode where he's funding research into third-world self-powered sanitation systems) which said that in India people basically poop just about anywhere. It's almost a cultural thing such that government efforts to promote toilets and sanitation have met with resistance. Just about everything including the water and the ground is permeated with human fecal matter.
Surviving that kind of environment might lead to a stronger immune system, given the wide range of pathogens the body gets exposed to. Sure you have a high mortality rate, especially infant mortality, but look at the herd immunities you get for it. Isn't that the plan that Faith and her crowd wanted for us? Kill off lots of people in order to create herd immunity to protect the vulnerable -- except for the fact that it's the vulnerable who will be the first to get killed off.
So one thought is that India's lower infection rate could be due in part to a generally higher immunity the population has acquired by a life-long exposure to a wide range of pathogens which killed off the weaker ones.
Just a bit of wild speculation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 643 by nwr, posted 04-29-2020 12:00 AM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8996
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 645 of 955 (875575)
04-29-2020 9:55 AM


Data
We are trying to explain some numbers. Namely the rate of infection in India. We are, without questioning it, accepting that the number is correct.
That is another explanation for the anomaly. That is, that the anomaly isn't there. The testing may be inadequate or the particular test used maybe full of false negatives.
In India the number for deaths may be even less reliable than it is in more developed countries also. And even in Europe the deaths are probably undercounted.

  
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