Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total)
7 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 915,815 Year: 3,072/9,624 Month: 917/1,588 Week: 100/223 Day: 11/17 Hour: 0/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 646 of 955 (875578)
04-29-2020 12:03 PM
Reply to: Message 629 by Percy
04-27-2020 11:14 AM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page. Someone noted that there is a weekend effect, and this shows up in both the graphs I've been showing recently, more so in the other graph than this one:
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday:
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 629 by Percy, posted 04-27-2020 11:14 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 653 by RAZD, posted 04-30-2020 10:52 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 654 by Percy, posted 04-30-2020 12:17 PM Percy has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 647 of 955 (875579)
04-29-2020 12:22 PM


Go Big Red!
Major problem developing. Appears these number have turned a peak and are now on a decline. We are losing out.
It is time to reopen the country, reopen the economy full-bore. We can get those numbers going up again with some good old American effort. Problem is we can’t rely on the blue states to do their part so the majority of the effort to reverse this trend falls to the red states.
Come on, red states! Let’s get going before we fall further behind!
Go Big Red!

Factio Republicana delenda est.

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 648 of 955 (875580)
04-29-2020 12:30 PM


We're getting some reliable numbers now; it seems that one third of those admitted to hospital die. If you're over 60, overweight and overly male, you're over and out. Seemingly, it even worse if you're black.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 649 of 955 (875581)
04-29-2020 12:56 PM


Do As I Say, Not As I Do
https://www.cnbc.com/...-tours-mayo-clinic-without-mask.html, reports CNBC and other news outlets. The VP's excuse was that the mask is for preventing the infection of others and that he is tested for CV daily. The imbecility of this comment is obvious, but I'll explain anyway.
First, there's always the possibility of the presence of CV, making Pence one of the "others" who could become infected.
Second, daily testing only means that Pence would know relatively quickly if he became infected at the Mayo clinic. This would put everyone in the White House into quarantine, since he would already have been contagious before detection. And since there could be no certainty that the Mayo clinic is where he contracted the virus, those who were in his presence there would also need to be quarantined.
Good show, Mr. Pence.
In other news, https://www.cnbc.com/...despite-shortages-across-states.html. This piece of fiction had already been shot down earlier in the day: https://www.cnbc.com/...rth-us-can-test-5-million-a-day.html.
The news media has still not figured out how to report Trump's lies and antics. They should report anything he says that is true or useful and just ignore the rest. We don't need headlines like "Trump says we'll soon be doing 5 millions per day." The news media should just ignore that stuff.
A neighbor who's a nurse just began quarantine today after being exposed to an infected coworker (i.e., another nurse).
My retired doctor friend is doing testing a few towns over today, and we'll be playing tennis later. Generally he tests in assisted living facilities and group homes, and the rate of positive tests at such places is usually above half, so he's exposed all the time, but only while wearing a full PPE getup that includes scrubs, booties, head covering, N95 mask and a face shield. Plus he knows how to take it all off safely. Just the same, we won't get any closer than 15 or 20 feet of each other.
My wife's boss's boss's mother died of CV today.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 650 by dwise1, posted 04-29-2020 4:34 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5930
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.8


(1)
Message 650 of 955 (875587)
04-29-2020 4:34 PM
Reply to: Message 649 by Percy
04-29-2020 12:56 PM


Re: Do As I Say, Not As I Do
I've marked my calendar for two weeks out in order to remind me of when to look for reports of Pence popping positive for CV. Same thing for those idiot protesters a week earlier, so we should expect to see an increase of cases after this weekend, just in time for Cinco de Mayo.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 649 by Percy, posted 04-29-2020 12:56 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 651 by Coragyps, posted 04-29-2020 7:09 PM dwise1 has replied

  
Coragyps
Member (Idle past 734 days)
Posts: 5553
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002


(1)
Message 651 of 955 (875591)
04-29-2020 7:09 PM
Reply to: Message 650 by dwise1
04-29-2020 4:34 PM


Re: Do As I Say, Not As I Do
By damn, I’m going to drink a Corona for Cinco de Mayo!! I might disinfect the neck of the bottle first....,

This message is a reply to:
 Message 650 by dwise1, posted 04-29-2020 4:34 PM dwise1 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 652 by dwise1, posted 04-29-2020 8:02 PM Coragyps has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5930
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.8


(1)
Message 652 of 955 (875592)
04-29-2020 8:02 PM
Reply to: Message 651 by Coragyps
04-29-2020 7:09 PM


Re: Do As I Say, Not As I Do
This year, Cinco de Mayo would have been on Taco Tuesday. A perfect storm! All screwed up by this virus and the Mango Menace's gross mismanagement of this crisis.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 651 by Coragyps, posted 04-29-2020 7:09 PM Coragyps has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 653 of 955 (875601)
04-30-2020 10:52 AM
Reply to: Message 646 by Percy
04-29-2020 12:03 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Our new low for RI 2 new positive tests admitted to hospitals.
Raymondo has been very proactive. RI also has highest tests per capita of all states.
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmericanZenDeist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 646 by Percy, posted 04-29-2020 12:03 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 654 of 955 (875610)
04-30-2020 12:17 PM
Reply to: Message 646 by Percy
04-29-2020 12:03 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 60,765 so far:
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. If they included a moving average it does feel like you'd start to see a decline. If the decline is real then in a week it should average somewhere around 24,000 new cases per day, but the gradual loosening of sheltering in place and social distancing guidelines should also have begun to have an effect by then:
As I warned people over a month ago, the six foot distancing guideline is nonsense. One of the reasons I cited was tiny aerosol-sized droplets. This came from simple reasoning that goes like this. Sheer randomness guarantees that our exhalations will include a range of droplet sizes, from actual spitballs to microscopic aerosol size. Large droplets will sink to the floor (and get all over your shoes), but the smaller the droplet the longer it will stay suspended in the air, and the tiniest droplets will stay suspended forever until they come in contact with something.
While studies have not yet confirmed the lifetimes of virus in tiny droplets (which of course is not something one can determine from simple logical reasoning), it *is* finally becoming apparent that aerosol size droplets require study and could possibly be a significant factor. See Spain, France, Greece: Coronavirus World News Live Updates - The New York Times for one. There was another more detailed article I read yesterday in the Post that cited studies: Studies leave question of ‘airborne’ coronavirus transmission unanswered.
Don't gamble that studies will reveal aerosol sized droplets are not a factor in the contagion. Maybe they're a factor, maybe not, we don't yet know. Don't take any chances until we know for sure. There's no safe social distance in air that other people have breathed within the past few hours. In such circumstances you should always wear a mask. The great outdoors is probably pretty safe as long as you're not close to other people.
Two high school girls were already playing on one of two courts when we arrived yesterday, so we walked onto the empty court and the girls asked us to go to a different court further away. We said we liked that court because it was close to the woods and more sheltered from the wind (God was it windy yesterday). The girls left and went to the other set of courts. Evidently they felt that 20 feet, probably the closest any of us would ever come to them, wasn't enough.
But two of the guys I played doubles with yesterday are legacy players (meaning formerly top notch but older now, in their 70's), and they were paying no attention to social distancing on the court. When we finished they walked up to the net and stood side-by-side as if we were going to shake hands or something. I think this is one of the dangers for the older community, that their thinking and habits are less adaptable.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Add link to Times article.
Edited by Percy, : Add link to Post article about airborne transmission.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 646 by Percy, posted 04-29-2020 12:03 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 660 by Percy, posted 05-02-2020 8:42 PM Percy has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 655 of 955 (875643)
05-02-2020 1:32 AM


Cuomo said 25 percent of NYC has been infected based on antibody tests.
That means that the death rate is as low as 0.5 percent though the undercount in Coronavirus caused deaths could bring the death rate up to 0.8 percent.
I hope that the death rate is actually that low.
It is still dangerous due to the highly contagious nature of the disease.

Replies to this message:
 Message 656 by NosyNed, posted 05-02-2020 9:40 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8996
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 656 of 955 (875648)
05-02-2020 9:40 AM
Reply to: Message 655 by LamarkNewAge
05-02-2020 1:32 AM


"Low"?
If it is 0.5 and the seasonal flu is 0.1 of infected patients then it is still terrible.
If flu really* is over 60,000 deaths in the USA then the above death rate suggests 300,000 deaths.
* I have read some stuff which suggests that flu deaths are badly estimated and may not be anywhere near 0.1.
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges - Scientific American Blog Network
As a small aside: CNN has reported an updated projection of 74,000 US deaths by August 8. I haven't seen that change this week. WTF? The current figure is 65,000 and at the current rate it'll be over the 74,000 in a week.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 655 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-02-2020 1:32 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 657 by jar, posted 05-02-2020 10:15 AM NosyNed has not replied
 Message 658 by Percy, posted 05-02-2020 8:27 PM NosyNed has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 657 of 955 (875649)
05-02-2020 10:15 AM
Reply to: Message 656 by NosyNed
05-02-2020 9:40 AM


Re: "Low"?
It's interesting that the US reported costs for the Vietnam War converted to 2020 dollars would be just over one billion dollars and took four years to kill 60,000 Americans. Seems a simple proof that Pestilence is far more efficient but also far more expensive than War. No real data where Famine would fall on the spectrum.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 656 by NosyNed, posted 05-02-2020 9:40 AM NosyNed has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 658 of 955 (875666)
05-02-2020 8:27 PM
Reply to: Message 656 by NosyNed
05-02-2020 9:40 AM


Re: "Low"?
NosyNed writes:
If it is 0.5 and the seasonal flu is 0.1 of infected patients then it is still terrible.
If flu really* is over 60,000 deaths in the USA then the above death rate suggests 300,000 deaths.
300,000 deaths from the coronavirus is arrived at by (.05/.01)*60,000, but there's another way of calculating potential deaths that might yield a more accurate number. The penetration rate for a virus this contagious is 60-70% when there is no vaccine or mitigation methods. Using the more conservative figure of 60% says that the coronavirus could potentially infect 195 million, and a mortality rate of .5% would yield 975,000 deaths.
But with aggressive mitigation techniques (but still no vaccine) the penetration rate might be significantly lessened, but it would have to decrease to around 20% in order for a .5% mortality rate to yield around 300,000 deaths. It doesn't feel like a 20% penetration rate is achievable, especially not with all the pressure to loosen things up. Many states are loosening things up right now, even though the figures say things are at best staying about the same. I'm going to post the latest graphs again my next post, and they'll make clear that things are not improving.
You can review infections and deaths state by state on the Washington Post's page, but that's a bit time consuming and I don't do it very often.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 656 by NosyNed, posted 05-02-2020 9:40 AM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 659 by NosyNed, posted 05-02-2020 8:33 PM Percy has replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8996
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 659 of 955 (875667)
05-02-2020 8:33 PM
Reply to: Message 658 by Percy
05-02-2020 8:27 PM


Statistics
I've been using this site:
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Clicking on a country breaks that country's numbers down by smaller unit. It sorts by clicking on column headings.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 658 by Percy, posted 05-02-2020 8:27 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 662 by Percy, posted 05-02-2020 9:00 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 660 of 955 (875668)
05-02-2020 8:42 PM
Reply to: Message 654 by Percy
04-30-2020 12:17 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 65,837 so far:
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday:
These graphs show that we are not yet winning the battle against coronavirus.
In some locally good news, when I did the weekly grocery shopping yesterday around 80-90% of the employees were wearing masks, and around 90% of customers. This is way up from last week. I'm estimating, of course, those are just my observational impressions, but they are definitely ballpark.
--Ted

This message is a reply to:
 Message 654 by Percy, posted 04-30-2020 12:17 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 669 by Percy, posted 05-04-2020 8:55 AM Percy has replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024