Coronavirus and Pandemics

Well, we Texans have it all completely under control. Four days running of record highs in new cases, so -naturally - we’re back to full open, and the beaches are jammed with people.Unfriggenbelievable.

Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 71,078 so far: The recent tick upward must be an artifact of reporting latency. The prior days were probably somewhat higher, and yesterday was probably much lower. Also, one article I read today said that the timeliness of reporting of deaths by the states varies widely, in some cases taking weeks.Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday: Scored a two liter bottle of 62% hand sanitizer today. Don't hoard, but during May it might be a good idea to gradually stock up on some supplies because it's possible there could be an uptick in June.--Percy

I had to take my car to get inspected to renew tags and it's annual oil change (over 7000 miles on it now and it's only 5 years old). Several of the staff were not wearing masks although the doors were posted that to enter you had to wear a mask and on the road almost no one was actually wearing masks.Roads were as busy as before the lockdown and most stores and restaurants open with cars in the parking lots.

The woman this article is about was the wife of the late Stephen Jay Gould: A N.Y. woman went $600,000 in debt to buy protective equipment for workers and hospitals keep turning her down--Percy

Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 73.243 so far. The large upticks the last two days must obviously be reporting lag artifacts. The death rates the last two days were probably lower and the previous few days likely higher: Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. There's an obvious weekly 7-day pattern. Likely tomorrow's number will be in the 26-28K range, and the day after in the 28-30K range: I read an opinion piece yesterday (Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve) that pointed out that if you remove urban centers from the coronavirus graphs of cases and deaths that the trendline is still strongly upward. Just as predicted in this space, the virus is moving out of the cities and into the countryside where urgent care facilities, emergency rooms and hospitals are much further apart, sometimes hours distant.It is stunning how Republicans are largely blind to the indelible image of incompetence the Trump administration is projecting in the face of this pandemic. We have to concede Trump's incredible effectiveness at convincing his base that he's doing a great job.With the gradual reopening taking place I'm going to continue to remind people that unless a couple factors come to the fore that it is going to get much worse before it gets better. To avoid that these things need to be true, and there's no guarantee that they are:

• Cloth masks are effective at preventing the spread of coronavirus.
• The vast majority of people will wear masks.

Also effective at avoiding the relapse would be very widespread testing and intensive contact tracing, but the Trump administration is providing very little in these areas.In images and videos I see many people wearing their masks fairly low on their faces creating significant spaces between the mask and the side of their nose. To be effective masks must be pulled up closer to the eyes where the spaces will be much smaller. Actual N95 masks have a little piece of flexible metal at the top that can be bent to precisely conform around your nose.We'd so given up on finding masks in stores that when we were out yesterday we forgot to even look for them.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Provide link to an article.

"The lady doth protest too much, methinks" - I never questioned the veracity of the mainstream claims about the coronavirus. We know the coronavirus is real and causes about 20% of cases of the common cold. This particular strain of course is less well established. Your repeated defence though of something that never was under attack makes me think that perhaps you are beginning to doubt your own narrative?

Anyone want to place a bet on when the US deaths/million pop will pass Spain's?

We know that the cat family is real, too. And we know that your average tiger is a little more dangerous than your average fat American housecat. What’s the mortality for common colds due to coronavirus? As high as that for Covid-19? How prevalent is at least partial immunity to the common cold caused be a coronavirus? I don’t know that, and you don’t either, but I’ll take my chances on a common cold in preference to exposing myself to Covid-19.Don’t be foolish. The same family does not mean the same critter.

I’ll jump in here and say mid-May ... because of all the stupid reopenings going on right now. This a better metric than just (Corona) deaths, especially for comparing countries .. and states. Gives one a better grasp on the threat.This BS about opening (haircut for Xsake) and needing to work to pay bills is simple to remedy

• Take the relief money they’re giving out and just give everyone the same amount.
• The out of work workers can pay rent, food, utilities, and stayed home.
• The landlord can pay his debts as normal
• The essential worker employers can pay hazard pay to attract workers willing to take the risk with the money normally spent for wages.
• Banks get the mortgages and loans paid as normal.
• The money percolates up through the economy, just as it normally does.

Who knows, people might find that this works better than all the socialist programs. Combined.Enjoy

Currently:
USA Spain
population 328.2 46.9
deaths per mil 232 558
deaths per day 2,129 213So if everything (deaths perday stays the same) the US won't pass spain for 6 months
but as you say, the us deaths will trend up while spains goes down
so it can be much faster than that
but it can't trend up and down fast enough to make mid mayI'd guess Aug 1 at the earliest

Great, but then what was the point of your question? Here it is from Message 617: --Percy

We will also be seeing new hotspots in places not yet affected, in addition to states like Georgia, Texas and Florida that are ignoring or discarding protective measures, along with new testing in current areas. I am pessimistic about Trump's ability to deal with any increase, as he'll disregard it while he concentrates on how he wants to recover the economy for his election. We'll seeAny other takers?Enjoy

Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 75,254 so far. The large upticks the last three days must obviously be reporting lag artifacts. The death rates for those days were probably lower and the previous few days likely higher. Guestimating, I'd say we're averaging around 1900 deaths/day in the US over the past few weeks. Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. Concerning the weekly 7-day pattern, todays figure of 28,400 cases is very close to yesterday's projection of 26-28k. I'm still estimating that tomorrow's number will be in the 28-30K range: Three. That's the big number from today's grocery shopping. There were only three people not wearing masks, all customers, all over 60. Think back to my March 20 report six weeks ago (Message 96) where I said, "Only three people were wearing masks, and I was one of them. I felt very self-conscious." I did not feel self-conscious today, except maybe a little because I was one of the very few with an N95 mask. It was mostly cloth masks, a few bandanas, a few surgical masks, two N95's.I've been wearing the same N95 mask for six weeks now and it is holding up fine, but of course I only wear it once or twice a week for maybe a few hours at most. The rest of the time I'm either sheltering at home, picking up takeout once a week or so, taking walks, and playing tennis. Weather's been horrible.AbE: Should have mentioned, at the grocery store the meat section was about half empty.--PercyEdited by Percy, : AbE.

Only if such things are reported.Stop testing, stop reporting, control what is released as news and the problem goes away.

Ben Goldacre reported a large scale study of NHS patients Major risk factors include uncontrolled diabetes (be careful Phat!), asthma, being male, being of Black or Asian ethnicity.