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Author Topic:   Do you really understand the mathematics of evolution?
AZPaul3
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Posts: 8493
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


(1)
Message 7 of 239 (876421)
05-19-2020 12:20 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Kleinman
05-18-2020 2:49 AM


If you or any members of this forum know how to correctly describe the physics and mathematics of either of these experiments or know of links that do this, please provide that information.
If this PDF is your work, and I suspect it is, then you already have your answers since you wrote the paper that answered them.
Why are you here?
I suspect there is a deeper point you want to make with your OP.
What would that be?
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Kleinman, posted 05-18-2020 2:49 AM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Kleinman, posted 05-19-2020 4:12 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8493
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 9 of 239 (876431)
05-19-2020 5:09 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Kleinman
05-19-2020 4:12 PM


First, if you are looking for some pre-review help on the mathematical efficacy of this new analysis of yours then you are in the wrong forum. A math or a biology forum would seem to be more beneficial.
Second, if this isn't to be a rehash of the discussion in Explaining the pro-Evolution position from years ago then what differences from that discussion are you offering?

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8493
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


(3)
Message 12 of 239 (876437)
05-19-2020 9:58 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by Kleinman
05-19-2020 7:59 PM


What is the correct explanation for why it takes a billion replications for each evolutionary step in the Kishony experiment?
Does it? Unless I missed something I don't see that in Kishony's paper.
Even if that were the case is that significant in some way?
You did see the part where they describe
quote:
Hence, as compensatory mutations often occur behind the front, they are spatially restricted from contributing to the ultimate evolutionary course of the population.
Source
In other words because of the experimental setup the more resistant bugs often got blocked and had they not been the population would have entered the next gradient much more quickly.
Perhaps someone wants to try and explain why drug-resistant variants appear in Lenski's founder's population despite the fact that these bacteria were never exposed to antibiotics?
You don't understand random mutation? You don't understand evolution.
What makes you think exposure is necessary to develop a resistance capability in an individual or a small subset of a population? Do you not know why genetic diversity is so powerful an evolutionary tool? You don't understand evolution.
Or perhaps you want to explain why competition slows evolutionary adaptation?
Since both of these experiments were set up in highly restrictive environments for highly restrictive purposes, trying to conclude this is a general feature within the global biosphere of evolution's reality is not just bogus it is dishonest.
You're trying to use your math manipulations (mathnipulations ) as a sword to strike at the windmill of evolution?
My advice is go learn something about the subject first.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Factio Republicana delenda est.

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Replies to this message:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8493
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


(2)
Message 16 of 239 (876462)
05-20-2020 12:41 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by Kleinman
05-20-2020 10:53 AM


Re: Responses nwr and AZPaul3
So why doesn't it take 10 or 100 replications for each evolutionary step?
What evolutionary step? The edge of the next gradient? Do you know how far that is? Do you know the size of the bacteria?
What makes you think resistance was not achieved in the first 10 generations in some subset of the population? What makes you think that resistance wasn't lost again in the next 10? What makes you think resistance could not have been developed and lost many times by many disparate subsets of the population in this long slog across the gradient?
You don't know how evolution works do you?
Don't you find this surprising that drug-resistant bacteria would appear in bacterial populations that were never exposed to the antibiotics and there was resistance to many different antibiotics?
If you understood how evolution worked you wouldn't find such an occurrence surprising either. Just because the natural selection side of the process isn't being tested yet doesn't mean the random mutation side doesn't still occur.
Thus is the power of accumulating genetic diversity in a large population.
You are correct, neither Kishony nor any members of the Kishony team have ever published a paper describing the mathematics of their experiment. Kishony only talks about the billion replications in his video which I linked to in Message 3.
You're citing as their scientific data the informal talk of the group's PopSci outreach video? Academic quality noted.
So, why don't you tell us how large the population must be for these drug-resistant variants to appear?
From a minimum of 1 to an indeterminate maximum. And you don't understand why that is do you.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Kleinman, posted 05-20-2020 10:53 AM Kleinman has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8493
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 22 of 239 (876480)
05-20-2020 7:45 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by Kleinman
05-20-2020 5:29 PM


Re: Responses nwr, AZPaul3, and NosyNed
His lineages are grinding out replications until ...
No "until". The genetic grind never stops and it certainly wasn't aimed at the next "step".
What the experiment showed was that when the environment changed a part of the population was able to adapt to the new conditions.
Your "intelligent design" thinking is trying to read too much into the results.
And if the mutation rate is 1e9, you will have on average only one occurrence of that particular mutation every billion replications.
You got that mutation rate from the informal talk of the group's PopSci outreach video. It isn't real.
And it doesn't matter. When the edge of a gradient had been reached and the environment facing the population changed what happened? The blind undirected processes of evolution allowed the population to adapted to the changing environment.
That's the whole point here. Your mathinations are bogus. Unlike Haldane and others, your math does not accurately model the system you are trying to describe. You are trying to force your desired results into the model.
I can narrow down your estimate from 1 to infinity a little bit and you could as well if you understood how to do the mathematics of evolution.
Why? It doesn't matter. Despite your bogus math averages and probabilities the point stands that when the environment changed the population adapted in pretty short order. And we understand how and why.
So, now that you understand why you don't need antibiotics for drug-resistant variants to appear, why should medical providers be discouraged from using antibiotics?
So besides being ignorant of evolution you don't know how antibiotic resistance became such an issue either.
Do you know how antibiotics work? Do you know why antibiotics are so effective in the human body? Why it's important to complete the full series? Do you understand the interconnections between the antibiotic, the immune system and the rise of resistance? Do you understand that in treatment it is not the antibiotic that finally ends the infection?

Factio Republicana delenda est.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by Kleinman, posted 05-20-2020 5:29 PM Kleinman has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8493
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 148 of 239 (878063)
06-25-2020 12:44 PM


What is it a dog or a cat?
Micro is ok but no macro.
Miller-Urey proved you can’t get life from non-life.
Ok, take a reptile population, start a breeding program, and produce a bird.
Why are there still monkeys?
--------------------------------------------
Nothing new here, Citizens. Move along.

Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

  
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