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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 655 of 955 (875643)
05-02-2020 1:32 AM


Cuomo said 25 percent of NYC has been infected based on antibody tests.
That means that the death rate is as low as 0.5 percent though the undercount in Coronavirus caused deaths could bring the death rate up to 0.8 percent.
I hope that the death rate is actually that low.
It is still dangerous due to the highly contagious nature of the disease.

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 Message 656 by NosyNed, posted 05-02-2020 9:40 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 663 of 955 (875672)
05-02-2020 10:13 PM
Reply to: Message 662 by Percy
05-02-2020 9:00 PM


Re: Statistics
I hff have been using that one since March. WORLDMETERS .
NOW.
The Daily Mail has an article saying 2 million would hff have to die to reach herd immunity.
The article has graphs showing death rates from comparisons to antibody tests in various counties and countries. The ironic thing is that they have death rate percentages under 0.5 percent in most places. But still a 2 million death rate for the USA.
It is a long article.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 662 by Percy, posted 05-02-2020 9:00 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 664 by RAZD, posted 05-03-2020 2:15 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 666 of 955 (875682)
05-03-2020 11:26 AM
Reply to: Message 664 by RAZD
05-03-2020 2:15 AM


Re: Statistics
There was a long article with references to a doctor and his analysis.
I will find it later.
It looked at the lower death rates based on antibody tests.The Netherlands has a higher death rate than anybody with 0.63 of the infected passing away.
All other antibody tested areas are much lower.
But the study says that 2 million Americans will still succumb to the Coronavirus if we take the Sweden's approach.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 664 by RAZD, posted 05-03-2020 2:15 AM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 695 of 955 (875908)
05-09-2020 1:41 PM


Health Affairs journal publishes Anirban Basu paper.
Without considering social distancing, he said there will be 350,000 to 1.2 million US deaths by August.
This is an expert.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


(1)
Message 700 of 955 (875958)
05-10-2020 2:03 PM


There is a Pediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome
A type of toxic shock that has hit 73 children in New York alone.
Most had Coronavirus.
There is a fear that this might be another problem that could soon spread. Genetic information is being considered.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 701 of 955 (875968)
05-10-2020 3:50 PM


There has as been some evidence that Sweden's approach is working
The popular Imperial College London prediction model said Sweden would see 40,000 deaths by May 1, and 100,000 by June 1.
Only around 3000 to 3500 as of May 10.
Less deaths per person than Spain, Italy, U.K., and France.
A bit more per person than the United States.
85 to 90 percent of deaths in Sweden have been over 70 years old.
Sweden's leaders have admitted that they messed up when it came to the elderly and nursing homes. Steps are being taken to target the elderly for special protection.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 706 of 955 (876172)
05-13-2020 6:53 PM


This is different from the first SARS. It hits the elderly, mostly.
So why won't we pass we legislation that protects the elderly.
All these trillions, down the toilet. And so go the lives of old and sick.
Cuomo sent the positive cases from the hospital to old people homes with negatives. Sick.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Replies to this message:
 Message 707 by JonF, posted 05-13-2020 7:56 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 708 of 955 (876181)
05-13-2020 9:02 PM
Reply to: Message 707 by JonF
05-13-2020 7:56 PM


Re: This is different from the first SARS. It hits the elderly, mostly.
The solution I had in mind was NOT based on regulations, but spending money on programs.
I would be happy to have the government build big mansions for a group of, say, 20 elderly folks to live in, until the threat passes. Keep a fair amount of isolation, as a rule, and have rigorous testing for residents and the well regulated visitors.
We need to open the economy and protect the elderly BOTH
NOTE that it is construction season, by coincidence.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 707 by JonF, posted 05-13-2020 7:56 PM JonF has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 709 by JonF, posted 05-13-2020 9:10 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 749 of 955 (876582)
05-23-2020 11:06 AM


Good news published Friday in the Lancet. A vaccine from CanSino Biologics.
An early trial on 108 people showed an immune response after 28 days.
Now a double blind, controlled trial is starting.
The Chinese company says it will take 6 months to see if the side effects are bad, but they are only minor to mild so far.
The company says the specific drug formulation is not final, and notes that the tests are going to show which direction the development takes in the perfection of a working formula.
I found this today on CTV News
Promising Results For Potential Covid 19 Vaccine To Be Tested On Canadians.
It links to the Lancet paper that published yesterday.
Sorry, but I don't know how to get full url visible on my phone. Can't link.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 758 of 955 (876626)
05-24-2020 1:14 PM


Don't forget a third of all deaths come from nursing homes and long term care facilit
The elderly in general are close to 90 percent of all deaths, if I recall correctly.
I am not saying all deadly viruses will be like this, but there really does need to be a massive buildup of emergency homes for the elderly, ONLY to be used in a situation like this. Apartments or whatever.
This is just sad, and we need to target the right spots, if we are going to be doing radical things, like the states have been doing. The federal government is on a spending spree that shatters all records, for its part . The one two punch of crushing state lockdowns, and the federal money down toilet flush HAVE BEEN WITHOUT VITAL TARGETING.
This is an economy that is in the throes of total disaster and it is not ONLY due to the total lack of preparation, which explains why we are in the mess to start with. But the lack of protection for the vulnerable is causing the problem of the mushrooming death rate. Which fuels the dreadful 50 state lockdown that seems like it will never end.

Replies to this message:
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LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 768 of 955 (876734)
05-26-2020 10:17 PM
Reply to: Message 765 by Taq
05-26-2020 5:42 PM


Re: We used to be a player
China was not any kind of, quote, power when it helped North Vietnam 40 plus years ago.
China and Vietnam were not likely allies, communist Vietnam included. But that is another story.
China was not an exporter of communism by the time we got deep into Vietnam. Again,another story.
But ,your point about the low impact proxy conflicts is correct.

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LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 769 of 955 (876735)
05-26-2020 10:54 PM


CDC puts corobavirus death and complication rate at just 0.26 percent.
The case fatality rate is 0.4 percent but with 35 percent asymptomatic rate, that makes for 0.26 percent.
For under 65, it is more like 0.1 percent.
This sequel to SARS has been a great disaster when it comes to contagiousness, but it is nowhere near the killer once you are infected. SARS was 10 percent fatal, if you got it.
Open the economy, but protect the elderly and vulnerable. NOW.
Now.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 770 of 955 (876736)
05-26-2020 11:06 PM


Washington Post just reported that outside nursing homes, 0.13 percent fatality rate
Ser article TELL ME WHAT TO DO PLEASE. EVEN EXPERTS...

Replies to this message:
 Message 771 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-27-2020 1:03 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 771 of 955 (876739)
05-27-2020 1:03 AM
Reply to: Message 770 by LamarkNewAge
05-26-2020 11:06 PM


Re: Washington Post just reported that outside nursing homes, 0.13 percent fatality rate
Guess I will respond to my own post.
The new Washington Post article is something of a painful history.
It puts this failed lockdown policy into perspective, though that might not have been quite the exact point of the article.
Trump ordered a 15 day national lockdown way back on March 16, when there were only 85 deaths.
By the time he extended the lockdown, on March 30, another 30 days, there were over 3000 deaths.
Almost 60 days later, we are at about 100,000 deaths.
Now, what do we do.
I think that one in 3 seniors have diabetes. PROTECT THEM.
Open the economy, but finally help the vulnerable.
We need some actual policy aside from lockdown city, lockdown nation.
AbE:
Source: ‘Tell me what to do! Please!’: Even experts struggle with coronavirus unknowns
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
Edited by Admin, : Add link to Washington Post article.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 770 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-26-2020 11:06 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 772 of 955 (876751)
05-27-2020 12:20 PM


CDC death rate per age group numbers.
The overall death rate, for those with symptoms is 0.4 percent.
The asymptomatic rate is estimated at 35 percent, so that slices t the e death rate down to 0.26 percent.
But, before the 35 percent slice, here us the death rate by age.
0 to 49 years old 0.05
50 to 64 0.2
65 plus 1.3
Then the CDC chopped off 35 percent to get the 0.26 percent best estimate.
At the same time, JAMA published a report by researchers at the University of Southern California ,which matched the 0.26 coronavirus death rate. The lead author of the USC study was Neeraj Sood, professor of health studies at USC. The Los Angeles county health department was part of the team that worked with professor Sood. Sood said the fatality rate was 0.13 percent outside nursing homes, but the overall death rate was 0.26 percent when nursing home Covid 19 deaths were included in the overall death numbers.
So, a 0.26 death rate.
But let's say it is 50 percent higher. We can then see the CDC 0.4 numbers to quantify the number of deaths per infection in the broad age groups.
One in 500 50 to 64 year olds infected with Coronavirus will die.
One in 2000 people infected with the virus will die if they are under 50.
About 4 deaths per 300 infections if you are over 65.
THEN WE NEED TO CONSIDER...
The dead typically will be those with underlying conditions, though not always.
We need proper public policy to protect the elderly and the vulnerable.

Replies to this message:
 Message 773 by Taq, posted 05-27-2020 3:21 PM LamarkNewAge has replied
 Message 774 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 05-27-2020 6:55 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
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