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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 751 of 955 (876609)
05-23-2020 8:26 PM
Reply to: Message 741 by Taq
05-22-2020 1:34 PM


Re: More Information of How the Coronavirus Spreads
Taq writes:
The S protein on the surface of the virus binds to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) found on alveolar cells deep in the lung, and that's how it gains a foothold.
Does this mean that angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 is not found on exposed areas that might be touched or rubbed like skin, lips, eyes, etc., and so the virus cannot find purchase there?
However, you are still justified in taking all the precautions you deem necessary. You will never know if you overdid it, but you may find out if you underdid it. Stay safe!!
We're hopeful that enough evidence soon mounts that we can cease some of the measures we're talking.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 741 by Taq, posted 05-22-2020 1:34 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 767 by Taq, posted 05-26-2020 5:54 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 752 of 955 (876613)
05-24-2020 1:26 AM


Drug treatments may help
Remdesvir shortens recovery time Ars Technica
It’s a modest improvement- but still important. One of the worries is that health services may be overwhelmed and cutting the time patients need to stay in hospital will help.
Interleukin 7 is being investigated BBC. The coronavirus interferes with T-cell production and interleukin may counter that effect.

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 753 of 955 (876615)
05-24-2020 2:45 AM


Will Saudi Arabia cancel the Hajj?
quote:
Each year around 2.5 million pilgrims participate in the Hajj. The approximate dates for the 2020 Hajj are 28 July to 2 August.
Super, mega spreaders

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona
"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

Replies to this message:
 Message 754 by vimesey, posted 05-24-2020 10:15 AM Tangle has not replied

  
vimesey
Member
Posts: 1398
From: Birmingham, England
Joined: 09-21-2011


Message 754 of 955 (876617)
05-24-2020 10:15 AM
Reply to: Message 753 by Tangle
05-24-2020 2:45 AM


They could all just change their name to Dominic Cummings - they’d be alright then.

Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 753 by Tangle, posted 05-24-2020 2:45 AM Tangle has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 755 of 955 (876619)
05-24-2020 10:37 AM


Comparing Costs: The Cure and the Disease
The argument that the cure shouldn't be worse than the disease has been noted many times, and more recently many have began seriously making this argument as a form of persuasion of how critical it is to reopen the country, but the argument doesn't have to be qualitative. Scientists and statisticians have had available for many years a way to make such comparisons. It is, for example, often used when comparing the cost of new car safety regulations against the cost in terms of human life.
This method assigns an actual cost to a human life, and the commonly accepted figure is about $10 million. If the novel coronavirus ends up costing a hundred thousand lives (it is already certain it will exceed that by quite a bit) then the cost of the virus so far in terms of human life is $1 trillion.
The cost to the government so far is several trillion, and to the economy several more trillion, which argues that we've already spent too much. But that's the wrong way to look at it. You have to compare it to the cost in human life had we spent nothing.
Most estimates are that around 2-3 million will have died by the end of the pandemic if did not shut down the economy. That cost in human life in terms of dollars would be $20-30 trillion.
We're probably not that far off from spending somewhere in that neighborhood. The government will add to the trillions they've spent so far, and the economy will continue to shed trillions of dollars. We did the right thing by shutting down back in March (though shutting down earlier would have save many more lives), and we're doing the right thing now in carefully (in some places more than others) reopening.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 756 by NosyNed, posted 05-24-2020 11:25 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8996
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(2)
Message 756 of 955 (876620)
05-24-2020 11:25 AM
Reply to: Message 755 by Percy
05-24-2020 10:37 AM


Re: Comparing Costs: The Cure and the Disease
What this seem to forget and what I think will be found out by the end of June is that the virus will shut down a lot of commerce by itself. So if you don't take pretty drastic measures you don't get a poor health outcome and a good economy instead you get a very poor health outcome and an economic mess as well.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 755 by Percy, posted 05-24-2020 10:37 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 757 of 955 (876622)
05-24-2020 11:52 AM


Finally, A Clear Statement on Social Distancing and Masks
On ABC's This Week Dr. Deborah Birx just said this:
quote:
So you don't know who's infected, so we really want to be clear all the time that social distancing is absolutely critical. And if you can't social distance and you're outside you must wear a mask.
[AbE]
Dr. Birx was also on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace where she said pretty much the same thing:
quote:
And we know that it's important for people to socially interact, but we also know it's important that we have to have masks on if we're less than six feet, and that we have to maintain that six feet distance.
[/AbE]
There you have it. Social distancing applies when there are no masks. When everyone has a mask on you can get closer. How close? Still not known.
And a shout out to NosyNed for his comment in Message 756, which was right on.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : AbE.

Replies to this message:
 Message 806 by Percy, posted 06-03-2020 12:36 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 737 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 758 of 955 (876626)
05-24-2020 1:14 PM


Don't forget a third of all deaths come from nursing homes and long term care facilit
The elderly in general are close to 90 percent of all deaths, if I recall correctly.
I am not saying all deadly viruses will be like this, but there really does need to be a massive buildup of emergency homes for the elderly, ONLY to be used in a situation like this. Apartments or whatever.
This is just sad, and we need to target the right spots, if we are going to be doing radical things, like the states have been doing. The federal government is on a spending spree that shatters all records, for its part . The one two punch of crushing state lockdowns, and the federal money down toilet flush HAVE BEEN WITHOUT VITAL TARGETING.
This is an economy that is in the throes of total disaster and it is not ONLY due to the total lack of preparation, which explains why we are in the mess to start with. But the lack of protection for the vulnerable is causing the problem of the mushrooming death rate. Which fuels the dreadful 50 state lockdown that seems like it will never end.

Replies to this message:
 Message 760 by Percy, posted 05-24-2020 1:39 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 759 of 955 (876627)
05-24-2020 1:25 PM


Covid-19 and Tennis
On Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace Dr. Deborah Birx mentioned that it's okay to play tennis with marked balls so that you don't use each other's balls, and I'd like to offer some clarification.
First, what does she mean by using marked balls. She means you mark the balls by who is allowed to touch them with magic markers or sharpies, say a red dot for one player and a green dot for the other. Whether you use three balls (one can) or six balls (two cans), the red player can only touch balls with a red dot, and the green player can only touch balls with a green dot.
This is the approach used by the USTA in the first professional tennis event in the United States since the shutdown. The men's event was staged at a solo private court in West Palm Beach, Florida, a couple weeks ago, and the women's event is being staged this weekend at the same location. There were no spectators and no ball boys. Linespeople were on chairs outside the fence.
The red player is never supposed to touch a green ball, and vice versa. So how does the red player return a green ball to the other side? Easy. Those with few racket skills can just roll it back with a kick or a sweep of their racket. For those with more skills there are a variety of ways to pick up a ball without touching it, and those with soccer skills are particularly amazing. Once the ball is off the ground you just hit it back to the other side with your racket.
But what about doubles? Everybody has to serve. You'd need four sets of balls to play doubles. That's absurd.
So what are we amateur tennis players doing? From everything I've seen so far, nothing, other than maintaining social distancing. I'm the only person I know who brings isopropyl alcohol in a spray bottle and hand sanitizer in a squeeze bottle. Everyone playing uses one or the other. The balls are, of course, coronavirus free since they've just come out of the can (we never play with used balls, even before the pandemic). So the only possible source of coronavirus is player's pockets. We've decided that's an acceptable risk.
By the way, about the possibility of catching covid-19 from a tennis ball, touching the ball is probably the least likely way. But any strong player with a hefty stroke who's played when the sun is at the right angle, usually a low angle near sundown, knows that every whack of the ball sends a torrent of tiny nap particles into the air. Think tennis players never breath those in? Think again. It's inevitable.
So that USTA tournament down in West Palm Beach that thought they had covered all the most significant infection vectors with their distancing and marked balls and all that? Dead wrong. If one of the players was infected then he could not help but get droplets on the balls. When the other player struck the ball he would send virus covered nap particles into the air which he would then breath in.
The lesson here is that it's not possible to be 100% safe. All we can do is the best we can and hope that that's enough to protect ourselves and others.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 766 by Taq, posted 05-26-2020 5:44 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 760 of 955 (876628)
05-24-2020 1:39 PM
Reply to: Message 758 by LamarkNewAge
05-24-2020 1:14 PM


Re: Don't forget a third of all deaths come from nursing homes and long term care facilit
LamarkNewAge writes:
The elderly in general are close to 90 percent of all deaths, if I recall correctly.
How old is elderly? The figure for covid-19 deaths among those 65 and older is around 80%. To get to 90% you'd probably have to include those over 60 and maybe even younger, but that is no longer what you would call an elderly population.
The figure is skewed toward the elderly more than just age would cause by their high infection rate because of assisted living facilities and nursing homes. This causes the elderly to be overrepresented among the infected population. Among the elderly not living in large groups the infection rate is much lower.
Here in New Hampshire the state is funding testing for everyone in assisted living facilities and nursing homes, but I don't know how frequently each patient is tested. In other words, you can't just test each patient once. You have to test each one periodically.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 758 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-24-2020 1:14 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 761 of 955 (876659)
05-25-2020 8:37 AM


Memorial Day Holiday Potential Infection Event
Americans defy Covid-19 social distancing rules to celebrate Memorial Day holiday | Coronavirus | The Guardian, says the headline at The Guardian. Are the images in that article typical, or are they isolated occurrences that required effort on the part of photographers to find? The first image doesn't identify the location, but it's the Ocean City, MD, boardwalk:
If the images are typical of gatherings across the US then there will be a clear spike in cases in 2-3 weeks (June 8 through June 22) and in deaths in 3-5 weeks (June 22 through July 6).
Mitigating the deaths will be increasing experience of the medical establishment in dealing with the viral symptoms.
Numbers should be down for the next few days because reporting of cases and deaths will be slowed by the holiday. I probably won't report numbers again before Wednesday.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Typo.

Replies to this message:
 Message 762 by Coragyps, posted 05-25-2020 11:03 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Coragyps
Member (Idle past 734 days)
Posts: 5553
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002


(2)
Message 762 of 955 (876669)
05-25-2020 11:03 AM
Reply to: Message 761 by Percy
05-25-2020 8:37 AM


Re: Memorial Day Holiday Potential Infection Event
Wow! It’s fun to play find the facemask with that picture. They’re doing as well as the crowd at Lake of the Ozarks that I saw. And meanwhile, my county went from two cases to twenty this past week.....

This message is a reply to:
 Message 761 by Percy, posted 05-25-2020 8:37 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 763 by jar, posted 05-25-2020 1:22 PM Coragyps has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 393 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


(2)
Message 763 of 955 (876679)
05-25-2020 1:22 PM
Reply to: Message 762 by Coragyps
05-25-2020 11:03 AM


Re: Memorial Day Holiday Potential Infection Event
That's your own fault. If you insist on counting and reporting then of course you will get the bad news you want.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill StudiosMy Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 762 by Coragyps, posted 05-25-2020 11:03 AM Coragyps has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 764 by Coragyps, posted 05-25-2020 5:16 PM jar has not replied

  
Coragyps
Member (Idle past 734 days)
Posts: 5553
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002


(2)
Message 764 of 955 (876690)
05-25-2020 5:16 PM
Reply to: Message 763 by jar
05-25-2020 1:22 PM


Re: Memorial Day Holiday Potential Infection Event
See the happy moron
He does not give a damn!
I wish I were a moron!
My God, perhaps I am!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 763 by jar, posted 05-25-2020 1:22 PM jar has not replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 9970
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 765 of 955 (876723)
05-26-2020 5:42 PM
Reply to: Message 746 by jar
05-22-2020 5:51 PM


Re: We used to be a player
jar writes:
But in recent history it is and has been far more likely that it is the US that is the initiator or armed conflicts.
The US only initiates armed conflicts when the US severely outclasses the other army and feels confident it won't loose many troops. They also don't initiate armed conflict with other nuclear powers. Neither of these applies to China.
Armed conflict between major nuclear powers is fought between proxy forces, and this has been the case since the Korean War. The Soviets fought the Afghan forces, and we happily supplied the Afghanis with weapons. China helped out N. Vietnam. We continue to help Ukraine with their struggles against Russia. If anything, there might be a proxy war over some land in the South China Sea at some point, but it won't see Chinese and US forces going head to head.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 746 by jar, posted 05-22-2020 5:51 PM jar has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 768 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-26-2020 10:17 PM Taq has not replied

  
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